Breaking down Azumah Nelson vs Jeff Fenech III

This fight is only a few hours away. I’ve been racking my brain, but I can’t think of a time ever when two guys who have both already been inducted into the Boxing Hall of Fame have fought each other inside the ring. This has to be a first. While it’s not really a great record, I think this will be an interesting fight.

Being Australian, I want to see Jeff Fenech avenge that ridiculous draw. The first fight between these two had to be the worst decision I’ve ever seen in boxing. If anyone found 4 rounds to give to Azumah Nelson in that fight, they should pluck their eyes out and give them to someone with some use for them. However, unlike most Australians, I don’t hate Azumah Nelson. The man is an absolute legend of the sport. The way he bounced back to avenge the loss to Fenech is stuff I really like to see in boxing. While I think Fenech may not have had his best night in the rematch, Nelson proved that he was a much better fighter then the first fight showed.

This fight is hard to pick a winner in for a simple reason; we don’t know what either man really has. Fenech hasn’t fought since being knocked out by Phillip Holliday in a bid to win the IBF lightweight title, and Nelson hasn’t fought since losing a decision to Jesse James Leija. Both of these fights happened 10 years ago. Predicting a winner in this fight is really a stab in the dark, but it’s not impossible

What we did learn from the first two fights is that Fenech is going to have to crowd Nelson like he did in the first fight (and to a certain degree in the second fight before he was knocked out) and Nelson will want to keep this fight on the outside. Even in the first fight Nelson had his success fighting from the outside in the early rounds before Fenech started to repeatedly trap him on the ropes and punish him. I think the two big factors in this fight will be Azumah Nelson’s punching power and his stamina.

Fenech didn’t like it when he tasted The Professor’s power in the rematch, he was dropped three times and hurt on a few occasions by big shots from Nelson. Nelson is an incredibly technical puncher who puts a lot of power into each shot he throws, and with Fenech’s advanced age his reflexes will be slowed meaning he’s going to have to taste it at some stage. Fenech though looks in incredible shape for a man of his age, so I think the longer this fight goes the better chance he has.

I’m picking Nelson to win by knockout in the first 5 rounds. I think people underestimate how seriously he’s taken this fight and forget the fact that he solved the Jeff Fenech puzzle in the rematch. I’m also a tiny bit concerned that Fenech was seen drinking alcohol in every episode of the reality show that was being taped in the weeks leading up to tonight. You can bet everything you own that Nelson hasn’t touched a drink since he knew about this fight. Even though Fenech looks to be in better shape, I think Nelson’s stamina will be just fine. If Fenech gets through the first few rounds unscathed I think he’ll win a close, but unanimous decision. However, I just can’t see him handling Nelsons power. Azumah Nelson by 4th round knockout!

The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale Predictions

Just a quick SPOILER WARNING for anyone who hasn’t seen all of the Ultimate Fighter series who doesn’t want to know the results, I will be discussing what happens in the latest episode here.

 

 

Don’t read any further.
Right. Jesse Taylor is an idiot. He was pretty entertaining with some of his antics (more in a ‘what the fuck makes him do that’ kind of way then anything else) but to get yourself in a position to do that then go out and screw it up in that way is just so stupid. Hopefully he cleans up his act because he’ll probably be a very solid fighter in a few years time.
Amir Sadollah shocked the hell out of me. I didn’t pick him to win a single fight after the fighters were in the house. The guy is the ultimate survivor, he just battles through everything the other guy does to him and then pulls out the victory. In saying that though I think Dollaway will beat him when they fight in the Finale. CB will be in much better condition and be able to beat up Amir for the full three rounds. Still Amir is going to be a weapon in a few years with a bit more experience under his belt (there’s no way he hasn’t had a professional fight). I’m picking Dollaway to win on points setting up a big third fight in a year or so.
Anyway onto the rest of the Finale:

Kendall Grove vs Evan Tanner
Prediction:  Tanner by Technical Knockout in the first round
I’m not going to rule Grove out of this one completely because he does have a shot, but Tanner will have to be completely shot in order for him to win. I just can’t see what Grove can do that will beat Tanner. Tanner looked horrible against Okami, but coming off the two year binge drink he was on I think he’ll be much sharper in this fight. Grove has a very suspect chin, and Tanner can punch, but I think this fight will end up with Tanner on top from a takedown dropping repeated elbows onto a helpless Grove. I think Tanner has the better stand-up and the better ground game and I don’t think Grove deserves to be in the main event coming off two straight first round annhilations (especially when the guy who beat him last gets stuck as a whipping boy for an up and comer on a preliminary).

Luigi Fioravanti vs Diego Sanchez
Prediction: Sanchez by submission in the first round
Not too much to say here apart from this is a mismatch. The UFC wants Sanchez to get another win so they can build him back up (maybe for a rubber match with Koscheck?) and Fioravanti is his sacrificial lamb. There aren’t many welterweights who I think can survive with Sanchez on top of him, and Fioravanti isn’t one of them. Sanchez by rear naked choke in the first round (if he doesn’t win by strikes before he gets his back).

Spencer Fischer vs Jeremy Stephens
Prediction: Stephens on points
Stephens showed what he is capable in his win over Cole Miller in January. Fischer is good but limited and I think Stephens will exploit his lack of stand-up and keep the fight standing en route to a unanimous decision win.

Matthew Riddle vs Dante Rivera
Prediction: Rivera on points
Riddle is dangerous and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins, however I can’t go against experience in a fight like this. Riddle is still learning while Rivera has a number of professional fights under his belt. The trouble with predicting these sort of fights is that it’s hard to know what these guys have learnt while training on TUF so Riddle could very well be able to do a similar job that Taylor did on Rivera, but I never go against experience in fights like this.

Josh Burkman vs Dustin Hazelett
Prediction: Hazelett by submission in the second round
The only way Burkman will win this fight is by lay and prey. Hazelett has better stand-up and will win if Burkman can’t get the fight to the ground. I don’t rate Burkman but I think he will get the fight to the ground only to get tapped out by something from Hazeletts rubber guard. Hazelett by triangle choke.

Marvin Eastman vs Drew McFedries
Prediction: McFedries by knockout in the first round
Either way this one shouldn’t go past the first round. I’m picking McFedries because I think he has the better chin and he has had more success in the Octagon. Expect fireworks in this fight.

Matt Arroyo vs Matt Brown
Prediction: Brown by knockout in the third round
These two have fought before with Brown winning by knockout in the 2nd round. Arroyo was impressive on TUF6 and has a very good ground game, but Brown has a huge advantage on the feet. I think Brown has the style to beat Arroyo, his aggression is something that gives a lot of jiu-jitsu practitioners fits and he’ll pound Arroyo out in the third round of an entertaining fight.

Jeremy Horn vs Dean Lister
Prediction: Horn on points
This won’t be entertaining if it goes the way I think it will. This fight will probably reach a stalemate on the ground with Horn’s superior stand-up having the final say in an irritating battle.

Tim Creduer vs Cale Yarborough
Prediction: Creduer by submission in the first round
I don’t rate Yarborough at all, Creduer to get on top and finish him with whatever he feels like.

Rob Kimmons vs Rob Yundt
Prediction: Kimmons on points
I haven’t seen Kimmons and the only fight of Yundt’s I’ve seen was against Ricardo Almeida at UFC 81. I’m basing this pick on a tip from a friend who has seen Kimmons and thinks he’ll do alright in the UFC.

DREAM.4 and EliteXC Results

DREAM.4 Results

Shinya Aoki vs Katsuhiko Nagata
I didn’t even realise a gogoplata from the mount was possible. Aoki has to be the most creative fighter I’ve seen since Kazushi Sakuraba. With this win Aoki becomes the 2nd fighter to finish two MMA fights by gogoplata and the first one to finish one from the mount. I agree with Adam Morgan of fiveouncesofpain.com that this finish should be renamed ‘the Aokiplata’ out of respect to his creativity. If you get the opportunity to see this fight, it’s a must watch. Aoki is definately one of my favourite fighters to watch in any MMA organisation and is my pick to win the DREAM lightweight Grand Prix.

Gegard Mousasi vs Dong Sik Yoon
Mousasi looked very impressive en route to a unanimous decision win. He has excellent wrestling and grappling abilities for a striker, avoiding the takedown numerous times and also passing Dong’s guard. Yoon almost pulled off his trademark ‘Dong-bar’ (what he calls a straight arm bar) and it even looked like Mousasi tapped before escaping the submission attempt but if he did tap I don’t think he would have stopped tapping and then suddenly escaped. Mousasi is my pick to win the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix although I think Jacare will submit him if the fight hits the mat.

Zelg Galesic vs Taiei Kin
Not much to say about this fight because of the freak ending. Kin broke his arm after being taken down by Galesic after about a minute of fighting. This fight appears to be cursed after the freak cut from the first fight last year in K-1. I’m not sure what to think of Galesic, but I don’t think he’ll reach the final two.

Ronaldo Jacare vs Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller
This was the most entertaining fight of the card, with Jacare winning a decision after 15 minutes of top level grappling. Jacare locked in two heel hooks that would have forced most sane men to tap out, unfortunately for him Mayhem is one of the most insane fighters I’ve ever seen and all he did was smile and put his thumbs up. Mayhem came back strong in the final round but his guillotine choke attempt cost him any chance at winning. I think Jacare will make the final two as long as he doesn’t run into Mousasi in the semi finals. His stand-up is a little suspect and Mousasi’s takedown defence should keep the fight standing.

Melvin Manhoef vs Kazushi Sakuraba
Unfortunately I picked this fight correctly and Melvin Manhoef destroyed Sakuraba in little over a minute. Sakuraba is one of my favoutite fighters ever and it was sad to see him take a beating like that. That referee should be shot for letting him take the punishment he did, the fight should have been stopped after the high kick. Sakuraba is a legend of the sport and this defeat doesn’t tarnish his legacy, although he really should retire. He physically can’t do what he used to after years of fighting larger men. Mousasi I feel will be in trouble if Mousasi gets his wish and they fight in the first round of the Final.

EliteXC: Return of the King
KJ Noons looked extremely impressive, destroying Yves Edwards in about 30 seconds. The final flurry was something to witness, he looked like a normal ground and pounder in fast forward. Nick Diaz looked alright, although not making weight by 9lbs took any shine off his performance. Tony Bonello was completely in over his head against Ninja Rua.

Prediction Results
I had a good weekend, scoring 5/6 out of the fights I thought were worth picking (I got all of the others right, they were pretty one sided though) and getting four out of those five with the correct outcome. The only fight I got wrong was the EliteXC main event, and I underrated Noons’ boxing ability.

DREAM.4 Predictions

I’m a little strapped for time, so I’m just going to throw up picks for the main fights this weekend. I’m looking forward to the DREAM event as I’m a big fan of Japanese MMA shows, although I’d like to have seen Sakuraba fight someone who isn’t going to bash his head in. I also really like the tournaments even though the best guy usually doesn’t win it. The two DREAM tournaments currently taking place aren’t the greatest lineups of talent out there, but they both have some good fighters in there.

DREAM.4 Predictions

Shinya Aoki vs Katsuhiko Nagata
(Lightweight Grand Prix)
Aoki by decision after 15 minutes

Ronaldo ’Jacare’ de Souza vs Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller
(Middleweight Grand Prix)
Jacare by decision after 15 minutes

Yoon Dong-sik vs Gegard Mousasi
(Middleweight Grand Prix)
Mousasi by decision after 15 minutes

Zelg Galesic vs Taiei Kin
(Middleweight Grand Prix)
Galesic by knockout inside 10 minutes

Melvin Manhoef vs Kazushi Sakuraba
(Middleweight Grand Prix)
Manhoef by knockout inside 10 minutes

EliteXC: Return of the King

Yves Edwards vs KJ Noons
(EliteXC Lightweight Title)
Edwards by submission in the 2nd round
I can’t see Edwards letting his chance slip now that he has finally got himself a title shot. Noons is a good stand-up fighter but I think Edwards can match him standing up and will destroy him when the fight inevitably hits the mat.

Pavlik destroys Lockett

I’m going to go over every fight of the weekend in this post, not just the middleweight fight.

Gary Lockett vs Kelly Pavlik
This was the only boxing match of the weekend that went the way I thought it would. Kelly Pavlik is an animal in the ring. The amount of pressure he puts on his opponents is great, and there’s not a man at middleweight who I think could handle it for the full 12 rounds. Enzo Calzaghe made the right call in stopping that one after the 3rd knockdown, there was no need for Lockett to take any more punishment. The only middleweight I give a chance against Pavlik is Winky Wright but I don’t think even Wrights defence would hold up over the 12 rounds.
While I’d have no problems with Pavlik staying at middleweight and ruling with an iron fist, I think the best fight would be to take on Joe Calzaghe. Calzaghe would have to drop back down to 168lbs in order for the fight to be fair, but I don’t think he’d have any more trouble making the super middleweight limit then he did a year ago. A loss for Calzaghe would be a blow to his legacy, but not a monsterous one. A loss for Pavlik in my opinion wouldn’t mean too much because Joe’s a more experienced fighter and a bigger fighter. This is a fight that should be made now before Calzaghe gets too comfortable at 175lbs, if he fights there again then the chances of him making 168lbs and being as effective as he was drop.

Juan Manuel Lopez vs Daniel Ponce de Leon
I didn’t think it would go more then a few rounds and I was right, except that I thought it’d be de Leon who would emerge victorious. Lopez fought smart, he let de Leon come to him and he countered effectively. de Leon was way too eager to get out there and brawl in my opinion, he should have fought a bit mroe reserved instead of chasing Lopez around throwing punches. There’s some good fighters at this weight division, and I’d like to see either of these guys fight the real champion Israel Vazquez. Even though I think he’d outlast both of them, both fights would be a war.

Sergio Mora vs Vernon Forrest
I haven’t seen this fight yet, but I’m very surprised that Mora was able to hang with Forrest, let alone beat him. Forrest always has a habbit of fighting down to his opponents level (like he did the first time he fought Ricardo Mayorga), but even in saying that I really thought Mora wouldn’t have enough substance to his game to deal with Forrest. This division is pretty boring, none of the champions will fight each other and not many of them are worth watching to begin with. Infact, Mora’s victory makes this worse because he dethrones the one champion who was worth watching and replaces him with himself. Hopefully someone comes along and cleans up this mess quickly, this division used to be fun.

Carlos Quintana vs Paul Williams
There’s no better way to set the record then with a first round knockout. Williams seemed more prepared to deal with Quintana’s movement and he used a stiff jab well to set up the short left hand that rocked him, then he opened up to take Quintana out. Now that Mayweather has ‘retired’, Williams should fight the winner of Cotto-Margarito for the right to call themselves the real champion at welterweight. Despite Williams’ impressive performance, I’d pick both Cotto and Margarito to beat him.

Celestino Caballero vs Lorenzo Parra
I haven’t seen this fight either (and I’m unlikely to) but I took a risk and it didn’t pay off.

Prediction Results
I had another shocker. I don’t like it when I get more wrong then I do right and I thought I’d get at least four of these fights right. Still the only fight that really went the way it should have on paper was the Kelly Pavlik fight, and I at least got that one right. It was a pretty unpredictable week for predictions in both MMA and boxing.

UFC 85

Thiago Alves vs Matt Hughes
The only thing I really have to say about this fight is that it would have been so much better had Alves made weight. Alves looked a lot bigger in there then Hughes did and as much as I hate Hughes, I find it hard to give Alves a lot of credit for the win considering the advantage he went in with. Had Alves made weight and put in that sort of performance, he’d easily be the choice for the next shot at St-Pierre (assuming he gets by Fitch), but I think he needs to prove he can still make 170lbs before he deserves a shot at the title. The last thing any UFC fan wants to see is another incident like Travis Lutter vs Anderson Silva. Still Alves looked impressive and if he can make 170lbs I think he poses the biggest threat for St-Pierre based on his punching power.

Michael Bisping vs Jason Day
That was easily the best performance of Bisping’s career. Day’s a good fighter and he’s proved it with wins over good opposition in the past. The way Bisping went through him is extremely impressive. Bisping’s wrestling and ground and pound seem to be a lot more effective against the smaller fighters, and I think he can be a force at this weight division now that he doesn’t have to worry so much about Lay and Prey artists like Matt Hammill and Rashad Evans. Still, I’d like to see how Bisping handles a good middleweight wrestler who isn’t afraid to stand up with him like Captain Miserable was in Canada. Maybe the winner of the Tanner-Grove fight would be a good choice of opponent?

Marcus Davis vs Mike Swick
This fight went exactly how I thought it would. Swick was just a little bit better in every area of the fight, and he showed that he isn’t drained at welterweight. It’s the same thing with most fighters the first time they cut to a new weight division. Look at Rich Franklin’s performances against Jorge Rivera (the first time he made 185lbs) and in the rematch with Evan Tanner (the 2nd time he made 185lbs). They aren’t the same fighter. It’s all about experience. I still don’t think Swick is championship material, but he’s a good addition to the talent-ridden welterweight division.

Thales Leites vs Nate Marquadt
This fight went exactly how I thought it would go bar the two point deductions. Leites would open up strongly and Marquadt would have to survive some scary moments early before coming back due to superior conditioning. The first point deduction was definately called for (although I don’t agree with the rule, but thats another can of worms that I’ll save for another day), but the second one was a joke. Also, the judge who scored the fight for Marquadt is a complete moron. He scored the fight 28-27 Marquadt, meaning if you give Nate back the two points he lost due to fouls, then that judge scored all three rounds for Marquadt. How the fuck did Marquadt win that first round? Anyway, great fight, and I think these two should fight again as soon as possible!

Brandon Vera vs Fabricio Werdum
This fight was stopped way too soon. Before I get into that, I have to admit that I completely underrated Werdum’s game. Werdum is an excellent fighter who is more then just a wizard on the ground. Those takedowns were great and I think that even if the fight didn’t get stopped prematurely that Werdum would have gone on to win the fight. The fact of the matter though is that the fight was stopped way too early. Yes Vera was mounted and yes he wasn’t doing much back, but this is a professional fight of the highest order. You have to let Werdum hurt him before he stops him. Vera was doing all that you can do when a world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu guy mounts you. At this level you can’t just stop the fight because the position is bad, the guy has to at least land something heavy. Should Herring beat Lesnar, I’d like to see Werdum-Herring for the next shot at Nogueira after he beats Mir.

Martin Kampmann vs Jorge Rivera
I knew Kampmann would get him early, I didn’t expect the fight to go to the ground though. Rivera should be kept around as a gate keeper because he’s a good test for any up and comer and if he loses his contract after he destroyed Kendall Grove then that would really suck. I feel sorry for Jorge because Grove was the one who got annhilated in a little over a minute but he’s the one in the main event fight while Rivera gets thrown to the wolves on a preliminary. Kampmann is a much needed addition to the UFC 185lb ranks.

Thiago Tavares vs Matt Wiman
Not my choice for fight of the night, but I’m not going to grumble over that decision because it was one hell of a fight. Wiman looked excellent and the finish was top notch. I didn’t really rate Wiman before this fight but I think he’ll be a handful for anyone who faces him in the future.

Luis Cane vs Jason Lambert
Cane’s a killer, theres no doubt about it. He looked excellent in his UFC debut before the disqualification, and to take out someone like Lambert in that fashion is impressive. I don’t think theres anyone who would be annoyed to see him on a main card in the not to distant future. I’d love to see Cane vs Matt Hammill or Stephan Bonnar in his next fight.

Kevin Burns vs Roan Carneiro
If there’s anyone in the World who picked the unheralded blue belt Kevin Burns to submit (or even beat) the world class black belt Roan Carneiro who isn’t related by blood to Kevin Burns I’d like to meet him. Results like this are why I love this sport.

Jess Liaudin vs Paul Taylor
Didn’t see this fight, so I can’t comment. I’ll edit when I do finally see it.

Antoni Hardonk vs Eddie Sanchez
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! That was awesome. Hearing this result before the card started made me a happy man. Hopefully Sanchez is given his marching orders because he’s not a world class fighter and he doesn’t belong in the UFC. The only way I would have enjoyed this better is if it was Andrei Arlovski who did the arse kicking and if it was on the main card.

Predictions Results
I had a shocker. Five right, Five wrong and one that doesn’t count because someone didn’t make weight. A bit of a fall from grace from my efforts at UFC 84 where I was 10 from 11 with most of the predictions in the right round. Still I did better then most and with fights like Burns-Carneiro and Tavares-Wiman going the way they did it makes things very difficult.

Boxing Predictions (Pavlik-Lockett, Forrest-Mora and others)

This weekend Undisputed Middleweight Champion Kelly Pavlik will defend his title for the first time against some guy no one’s really heard of named Gary Lockett. Lockett hasn’t really done much to warrant a place inside the top 10 middleweights let alone earn himself a title shot and many are criticising Pavlik and his team for defending the title against him. I say Pavlik deserves an easy fight after what he’s been through.

Pavlik was a longtime contender and could have got a title shot without going through someone as dangerous as Edison Miranda. Miranda is a heavy handed dude who broke IBF titlist (I might just point out that I don’t refer to anyone who isn’t a real champion as one, I call them titlists) Arthur Abraham’s jaw and gave him all he could handle before losing a disputed decision. Pavlik did fight Miranda and he knocked him out in seven thrilling rounds. Pavlik then fought and knocked out Jermain Taylor to win the title. After that, he fulfilled a contractual agreement stating that if he beat Taylor, he’d have to move up in weight and give Taylor a rematch in a non title fight. Pavlik moved up and proved that making weight wasn’t the sole reason for Taylor losing to him by winning an entertaining 12 rounds decision.

Pavlik is a true fighter. He’ll fight anyone, anywhere, anytime. If boxing was full of Kelly Pavliks, fans would get sick of the great matchups that would be made. Pavlik has fought in three fights that he could very easily have lost in his last three fights, if people are going to complain about him doing it just once then they can go shit in their hat. Anyway, onto my predictions for this weekend.

There’s five fights I can be bothered predicting on this weekend:

Kelly Pavlik vs Gary Lockett
(World Middleweight Championship)
Prediction- Kelly Pavlik by 4th Round Knockout
Pavlik simply has too much firepower. The only thing that should be debated in this fight is how long Lockett can last, because he won’t last the 12 rounds. I just can’t see Lockett winning this fight. There’s a saying that ’stranger things have happened’ but that’s not even the case here. This would be the biggest upset I could remember if Lockett wins this fight, including Douglas-Tyson because Tyson hadn’t looked himself before that fight whereas Pavlik has looked the same killer he has been since he turned pro.

Daniel Ponce de Leon vs Juan Manuel Lopez
(WBO Junior Featherweight Title)
Prediction- Daniel Ponce de Leon by 2nd Round Knockout
This has the potential to be a war. Both of these guys have power to spare and they both like to mix it up. de Leon though is someone you don’t want to trade punches with and I’m not sure Lopez will be able to fight this fight any other way. It could be a matter of who lands first, but I think a fired up de Leon ends this one early with his left hand.

Vernon Forrest vs Sergio Mora
(WBC Junior Middleweight Title)
Prediction- Vernon Forrest by 8th Round Knockout
I’m not sold on the first winner of the TV show ‘The Contender’ Sergio Mora. He’s never shown me anything to make me think he’s a World beater. Unless he lasts 12 rounds and they rob Forrest I can’t see how he’ll win this one. Forrest has an awkward style but Mora doesn’t have the skills to make him pay for his mistakes. Forrest should bust him up and stop him in the later rounds.

Carlos Quintana vs Paul Williams
(WBO Welterweight Title)
Prediction- Paul Williams on Points
First of all I want to have a brag and say that I picked and made money on Quintana winning the first fight. Quintana’s a very underrated boxer because of the Cotto fight who has good movement and good skills fronted by solid counterpunching. However, Williams was one of those people who underestimated Quintana first time around and he’ll be better prepared with a better gameplan this time. Williams will use his size and strength a lot better and finish the fight strongly after an even first eight rounds to win this fight on points.

Celestino Caballero vs Lorenzo Parra
(WBA Junior Featherweight Title)
Prediction- Lorenzo Parra on Points
Most people won’t know either of these fighters. Parra is a former WBA Flyweight titlist who struggled greatly to make weight and I’m pretty sure ended up forfeiting his title on the scales before losing the eventual fight. Without having to burn off the extra 10lbs to make Flyweight, Parra should be a lot stronger and his boxing ability will keep him ahead against Caballero. Celestino’s strength could come into play in the later rounds but Parra’s boxing should earn him a clearcut unanimous decision.

UFC 85 Predictions

The UFC is on this weekend, and even though I’ve been a boxing fan longer and historically the Undisputed Middleweight Championship of the World (which Kelly Pavlik is no matter what the IBF and the other alphabet boys think) is more important and significant then anything on this UFC card, the UFC has much better matchups on it and will be more entertaining then the 4 round blowout that is Pavliks fight (theres more on that fight in it’s respective post).

Anyway I’ll be posting up my picks for each fight card when they come around, sometimes (like today) I’ll go into full detail, other times I’ll be lazy and won’t. Also I’ll always list the fights from main event to preliminaries so that those of you out there who wish to steal my predictions and claim them as your own (you know who you are!) or those lazy bastards out there who don’t give a shit about who I think will win in the typical ”TUF7 quarter finalist” vs “horrible Japanese fighter who only knows submission defence and inside leg trip” preliminary fight, can read the ones they want without having to scroll down a million pages.

Main Card
Matt Hughes vs Thiago Alves
Prediction- Hughes on Points
A lot of people think that Hughes is old and washed up; I don’t. Whats my theory on why the ‘greatest Welterweight ever’ couldn’t beat Georges St Pierre then? Maybe GSP is the greatest Welterweight ever and Hughes isnt? Anyway enough on that, but still Hughes showed to me that against Chris Lytle he can still handle top flight competition. I think Hughes should be favourite in every welterweight fight outside of GSP. I think a few have a chance with him (and Alves is one of them) but Hughes’ wrestling should nullify Alves’ Muay Thai by placing him on his arse and Hughes’ grappling should keep him out of anything Alves tries from the bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hughes finishes this fight, but Alves is game and I think he’ll last. I also think he could win this by knockout if Hughes somehow can’t take him down. Hughes is the safe pick with this fight though.

Michael Bisping vs Jason Day
Prediction- Bisping on Points
I was really impressed with Jason Day, and if there’s a fight that’s worth gambling on for this fight it’s this one. Day showed dangerous stand-up and a creative defensive ground game against Alan Belcher at UFC 83. Day could very well be the first fighter Bisping has faced that has better kickboxing then him, and if thats the case Bisping could be in a world of hurt. Bisping is very well rounded though and could win this fight on the ground, however the fact that Day successfully used the rubber guard to defend against Belcher on the ground shows to me that he has enough knowledge down there to at least survive against Bisping. Day is a dark horse in this fight, and I think he’s worth a gamble on, but Bisping’s experience is the reason I’m picking him to win a close decision.

Mike Swick vs Marcus Davis
Prediction- Swick on Points
This should be a good fight and is another fight that I think could go either way. Both fighters have shown they are dangerous on their feet and on the ground. I’m still finding it hard to get used to Swick as a welterweight because he was so dominant at middleweight against good fighters. I think he’ll be much better against Davis then he was against Burkman because the 2nd time it’s always easier to make the weight, he’ll know what to expect and his body will be ready for it. However, Davis is a tough Irish bastard (which makes him tougher then your average bastard) and I can’t see Swick knocking him out. When you follow fight sports long enough you know that there are some guys that aren’t worth picking to lose by knockout and Davis is one of them. Davis could knock Swick out though. Swick is quick but can be shaky around the whiskers and Davis has good one punch power. I think Swick will use his size and speed and outscore Davis wherever the fight goes, but with Davis infront of another English crowd he might get himself up for this fight and get another big win.

Fabricio Werdum vs Brandon Vera
Prediction- Vera on Points
Finally a fight where I’m not second guessing myself. The thing I love about UFC cards is the great matchups but as much as I love great matchups they can be a bitch to predict. Thats why you have to love fights like this. Werdum is basically a pure BJJ (Brazilian Jiu Jitsu for any newbies out there) guy, his only chance in this fight is to take the fight to the ground and submit or outscore Vera there. However Vera is a very good wrestler and his kickboxing is among the best at heavyweight. Add to that a good ground game and this fight is looking like Arlovski-Werdum all over again. Vera by one sided decision.
Nathan Marquardt vs Thales Leites

Prediction- Marquardt by TKO3
This is a good matchup on paper. Both guys have excellent ground games (I give the edge to Leites) and both guys are probably top 10 UFC Middleweights. The big factor in this fight will be Leites’ conditioning or lack of conditioning. He gassed horribly when he lost his only professional fight against Martin Kampmann at the TUF4 Finale. He seemed to have it under control in his recent fights, but his last fight was nearly a year ago. Ring Rust combined with already suspect conditioning means that Leites will have to win this one early or it’ll be a long night. Marquadt to win with ground and pound in the 3rd round after surviving an early scare.

Preliminary Card
Martin Kampmann vs Jorge Rivera
Prediction- Kampmann by KO1
Martin Kampmann makes his long awaited return after choking Drew McFedries unconscious at UFC 68 last year. Even though he won with the Side Choke, Kampmann is better known for his kickboxing. He showed great combinations against Thales Leites, but they seemed to be lacking in devastating power. Rivera though doesn’t have a great chin, infact he has a very poor chin. I think this will be an all action shootout with two strikers going at it and Kampmanns superior chin will be the deciding factor. Either way, this fight isn’t going a round.

Matt Wiman vs Thiago Tavares
Prediction- Tavares on Points
I’m impressed with Thiago Tavares, he has an excellent ground game and there aren’t many fighters who’d make light work of him if any. Matt Wiman is a decent fighter, but not yet in the league of someone like Tavares. Wiman will take some putting away but Tavares should be able to stay in control of this fight and win it on points.

Jason Lambert vs Luis Cane
Prediction- Cane by TKO2
Cane was unlucky against James irvin. I’m not saying he shouldn’t have been disqualified, because he fouled Irvin and Irvin couldnt continue. I’m saying that he didn’t try and purposely end the fight with a foul, it was blatant and he was winning the fight up until that point. He’s been thrown in with an experienced but in my opinion overrated opponent in Jason Lambert. Cane will put Lambert on his back and proceed to pound him out in the 2nd round.

Roan Carneiro vs Kevin Burns
Prediction- Carneiro on Points
Roan Carneiro has some serious Jiu Jitsu credentials. He might have a few losses on his record but he’s a dangerous guy. Kevin Burns has his work cut out for him in his UFC debut. This is one of those UFC fights (like Goran Reljic vs Wilson Gouveia) where one guy is making his debut and the other guy is a dangerous guy. If Burns wins, then he’s one to keep an eye on. Carneiro with his BJJ background and experience is the favourite and I think he’ll win it over three rounds.

Paul Taylor vs Jess Liaudin
Prediction- Liaudin on Points
This is a rematch of a fight that Taylor won by decision. Both guys were rookies back then and have improved a lot, Liaudin especially has improved. Taylor has a big advantage on the feet and Liaudin has a big advantage if they hit the mat. Both guys have something to prove but I think Liaudin will avenge one of his early career losses by controlling the fight on the ground.

 

Antoni Hardonk vs Eddie Sanchez
Prediction- Hardonk KO1
The one Eddie Sanchez fight that I actually want to see and it’s not on the main card. No great loss though because not only do I think that Eddie Sanchez shouldn’t be on the main card, this fat waste of space shouldn’t be in the UFC. His fight with Colin Robinson was disgusting. His fight with Palalei at UFC 79 was equally as disgusting but a lot more painful to watch. Hardonk is lightyears ahead of Sanchez in the stand-up although he has zero wrestling and grappling abilities. Sanchez has next to no stand-up, wrestling and grappling abilities and I think once he tastes one or two leg kicks he’ll try and run like he did against Cro Cop. Hardonk to win by massacre in the first round. If Sanchez gets knocked out in the first round I don’t care if the other 10 fights end in a no contest, thats how much I hate Eddie Sanchez!

Welcome to my Rant

Hello readers (I’m fully aware that there are none of you out there but someone is bound to read this at some stage). My name is not really angry fight fan, but thats what I am; I’m as addicted to fight sports as anyone can get. I’ve been a boxing fan for 10 years and an MMA fan for 3 years (in that 3 years I’ve watched nearly every major fight that was ever televised though). My friends think that I know enough about both sports and that my idea’s are decent enough that I should start writing some crap down, and this is it.

The other reason I decided to write this is that I’m sick of idiots on message boards who think they know everything about the sport (which I don’t claim to do for the record, if someone knows more then me I’ll shut up and listen so I can learn a thing or two) and then try and tell me I’m not a boxing fan when they’re the ones who only follow one fighter. I used to post on numerous other message boards (my identity will remain a secret) but recently my patience wore thin so I thought I’d start ranting at no one with the hopes that people will give a crap about what I have to say.

Just to clear up a few things first. The main thing is that I’m not a professional writer and have never aspired to be, so every now and then I’ll make the odd grammar mistake or put a capital letter where it shouldnt be or leave out a ‘ like I did already in this sentence. Thats just how I am, I’m lazy. I usually can’t be fucked changing things either. Speaking of ‘can’t be fucked’ that brings me to my second point, I swear a lot (I did say I’m angry), if you don’t like it bad luck. No one’s paying me for this so I’ll write it as I want to. Speaking of lazy, sometimes I’ll go weeks without posting (I’ll always try and put my predictions up but sometimes I just can’t be fucked), so don’t go giving me crap for not posting for ages. As I said, no ones paying me, this is purely a hobby, I’ll be spending less time on message boards though so my frustrations will be let out on here instead. Also I should mention that I’m Australian, this should help you understand where I’m coming from with certain things.

When it comes to boxing, I’m very old school. I believe in one champion in each weight division and that until that champion has been beaten he is still the champion unless special circumstances arise. An example of those special circumstances happened in the UFC recently when Sean ‘The Steroid Shark’ Sherk tested positive for steroids. I couldn’t give a shit whether he said he took them or passed a lie detector test, the fact is he had his title stripped because he was found to have cheated. Boxings a messed up sport, which is one of the reasons that I’m angry. There isn’t another sport out there that has 68 guys claiming to be world champions. In most divisions it’s pretty clear cut who the real champion is, in some(like heavyweight) they’re all just as bad as each other (thats not entirely true but until they all fighr each other thats how it is).

Anyway thats enough of an introduction, I hope anyone who reads this enjoys my rants. If you don’t, you can always complain in the comments section and if I can be arsed I’ll argue with you. There’s a good chance I won’t because like I said I’m tired of listening to idiots, but then again I do enjoy a good arguement so I probably will. Peace!