UFC 90 Results

We saw a mixed bag during the UFC today. While the main event ended unsatisfactorily (although no one is to blame as it was a freak accident), four of the other five fights we saw today were either great battles or had great finishes. The other fight was a good tactical fight but one that left the Illinois crowd and the referee who repeatedly asked both fighters to work. I won’t write the Illinois crowd off as idiots yet because it seems to happen the first time a big MMA show hits a new US state, they’re so pumped up that they boo everything that isn’t Griffin-Bonnar like. One thing that does piss me off though is idiot referees who don’t let the fighters fight. I’m not sure why stand-ups are even in the UFC anymore. They originally came in for two reasons. First reason was Dan Severn who is the Godfather of Lay and Pray, and the second reason is because back in the day when fighters were one dimensional, probably 80% of fighters couldn’t get back to their feet when they got taken down. Then add to that the fact that probably 70% of fighters couldn’t do much on top unless they were fighting a BJJ newbie, it led to some really boring fights. In this day and age, if you’re in the UFC and you can’t get back to your feet you don’t belong there. I still think stand-ups should happen in smaller shows because at lower level MMA you get the same situation that used to happen in the UFC, but in the big show with the best fighters in the World let the fighters fight!

Anderson Silva TKO (injury) 3rd round Patrick Cote
Strange fight. I’m not trying to take anything away from Cote here, but I really think Silva wanted some cage time. If he threw more then 30 strikes a round I’d be surprised. He looked nothing like he did when he took Rich Franklin apart in those two fights and Franklin is a much better fighter then Cote. To Cote’s credit, when Silva did land he took it well. He took a few head kicks and knees that would have floored lesser men. The ending was a little disappointing as Cote blew his knee out in the 3rd round and couldn’t continue. Full credit to him for repeatedly trying to get to his feet and continue, and Anderson Silva is a very classy guy for not jumping on him when he injured himself. The only fight for Silva at 185lbs is Yushin Okami. Okami is clearly the number one contender with wins over Jason McDonald and Evan Tanner as well as the close loss to Rich Franklin. Throw in the fact that Okami is the last man to defeat Silva (even if it was by disqualification in a fight that Silva should have won; I don’t care what the rules say, if you can knock someone out while on your back you deserve the win) and this is a fight that can be marketed. What I’d really like to see happen is for Silva to go up to 205lbs and rule there. Does anyone really think Rashad Evans or Forrest Griffin could hang with The Spider?

Thiago Alves UD Josh Koscheck
Great fight. Alves beat Koscheck up in the first and third rounds but Koscheck made a fight of it. Koscheck is a tough son of a bitch and even though I don’t like him, he deserves props for having a sturdy chin and heart to match it. Alves went to work with his leg kicks and high kicks and stuffed every one of Koschecks takedown attempts. He dropped Koscheck in the first round and had him in a lot of trouble in the third as well. Alves is the logical choice for the next shot at the Welterweight title whether that be against BJ Penn or Georges St Pierre. Whowver wins that super fight on Super Bowl weekend has their hands full with the Pitbull.

Gray Maynard UD3 Rich Clementi
Maynard outwrestled him, it was that simple. Maynard is one of the top lightweights in the UFC and while I think he’ll struggle against some of the better fighters, I think he matches up very evenly with the others based entirely on his wrestling ability. I’d like to see Maynard take on Emerson again if he doesn’t land a big fight, but with BJ Penn possibly staying at 170lbs, a four man tournament over two events would be an exciting way to sort out who the new champion is and I think with his last two wins (over Clementi and Frankie Edgar) he deserves a spot among those four. Throw in Sherk, Nate Diaz and the Florian-Stevenson winner and thats a good four fighters to have compete for the crown if Penn stays at 170lbs.

Junior dos Santos KO 1st round Fabricio Werdum
Wow! Santos shocked the hell out of everyone with that win. Props to anyone who called that and I know there were a few of them but I really didn’t think that Werdum would have much trouble in that fight. Santos is right in the mix now with that victory as Werdum was definately a top contender with his recent form. There’s plenty of good fights for Santos with the likes of Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Heath Herring or Cheick Kongo all matching up well with Santos.

Sean Sherk UD3 Tyson Griffin
I never thought I’d say this about a Sean Sherk fight, but that was fight of the night out of the ones I’ve seen. Sherk took Griffin down a lot easier then I thought he would early on and even took his back twice (although as always, Griffin escaped in the most exciting way possible). In the second and third rounds as I predicted both guys duked it out with Griffin dominating the first part of the round and Sherk outworking him in the last 2-3 minutes and probably pinching the fight there. Griffin’s cardio is good, but Sherk’s is on a whole other level and that was the difference in this fight. Sherk needs to remember that he’s a wrestler more and go for more takedowns because if Griffins cardio was better today he could have been in trouble standing with him when he was taking him down as easily as he was early in the fight.

Thales Leites Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 1st round Drew McFedries
Leites likely earns another submission of the night award with this performance. He used his right leg like a third arm once he took McFedries back (after he passed his guard like he was a white belt) and left McFedries defending with one arm. Then after sliding his free arm under McFedries’ throat, he quickly locked it up and forced the tap. Good to see Leites get his TV spot at the end of the show as well after his original opponent Goran Reljic was injured forcing him off the main card.

Other Results
Pete Sell UD3 Josh Burkman
Hermes Franca UD3 Marcus Aurelio
Spencer Fisher Submission (Triangle Choke) 3rd Round Shannon Gugerty
Dan Miller UD3 Matt Horwich

UFC 90 Predictions

Two UFC events in two weeks, its hard not to like that. The good thing about this weekend is that there’s no big boxing matches to tear my loyalty between the two. The choice has been made for me and even though I have to pay for it, most UFC’s are worth the money. In the main event Anderson Silva takes on Patrick Cote for the UFC Middleweight World Championship. Also on the card are two very important fights which will establish the next contenders Welterweight and Lightweight divisions. Thiago Alves takes on Josh Koscheck in the co main event for the first shot at the BJ Penn-Georges St Pierre winner and former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk makes his comeback against always exciting Tyson Griffin.

Main Card
Patrick Cote vs Anderson Silva
(UFC Middleweight World Championship)
Prediction- Silva by 2nd round submission
This fight could very well end in the first minute with Silva taking Cote out with a huge barrage of punches, but something Cote said makes me think different. Cote basically put the challenge out there when he said that Ricardo Almeida has a better ground game then Silva. Silva is as cocky as they come and may want to make Cote eat his words by submitting him. Either way, I’ll be surprised if this fight goes half the scheduled distance because Silva is that good and Cote isn’t my first choice for a title shot. I am fully aware that it was meant to be Yushin Okami but he broke his hand and couldn’t be ready, but Cote just flat out isn’t ready for this fight. This could get very ugly.

Thiago Alves vs Josh Koscheck
Prediction- Alves by 2nd round knockout
Koscheck steps in for injured Diego Sanchez who was originally meant to fight Alves and therefore makes this a better fight. Koscheck in my opinion should have got this fight ahead of Sanchez because he beat Sanchez last year and has beaten two good fighters since while Sanchez has been given guys that will make him look good. Koscheck should provide a better test then Hughes did for Alves based on a couple of things. First of all, Alves made weight for this fight and won’t have that size advantage that he did last time. Second, Koscheck is a better wrestler then Hughes (although he isn’t as dangerous on top because he hasn’t learnt how to do anything with it yet) and he has better stand-up. Still, I think Alves will be harder to take down then Koscheck is used to, then throw in the fact that Koscheck thinks he can strike and Alves can strike and I can see Alves punishing Koscheck with leg kicks and then knocking him out when he lacks the ability to move out of harms way.

Junior dos Santos vs Fabricio Werdum
Prediction- Werdum by 1st round submission
Like me you’re probably wondering who Santos is. I don’t know a thing about him other then he probably is no match for Werdum and he’ll probably get submitted quickly. With some of the other fights on this card, I won’t bother wasting any time on this one. Hopefully it ends quickly and we get to see one of the better preliminaries.

Tyson Griffin vs Sean Sherk
Prediction- Sherk on Points
This is a very interesting fight. Both guys are wrestlers who have excellent takedowns but both guys also like to throw their punches. This fight will probably turn into an ugly boxing match as their wrestling will cancel each other out. If one of the guys is to get the takedown on the other, I expect it to come from Sherk who I feel has the better wrestling. Sherk has excellent guard passes and could very well win this fight by submission if he gets Griffin on his back long enough. I also give Sherk the edge in the stand-up although it’s close. Griffin has a good variety of punches and this could prove a difference if they do indeed duke it out, but Sherk has good defence standing up and his straighter punches should give him an edge. I think Sherk will win with a combination of takedowns and crisper boxing and probably win rounds two and three easily after a close first round.

Rich Clementi vs Gray Maynard
Prediction- Maynard on points
I’m psyched that this fight is on the main card. The winner of this fight probably moves into the top five Lightweights in the UFC. I give the edge in striking in this fight to Clementi but Maynard’s wrestling should cancel that out. On the ground, I doubt Clementi can really get himself in a position to be able to submit Maynard, and may end up spending the whole fifteen minutes trying to maintain guard while Maynard drops hammerfists and elbows on his head. I doubt Maynard will finish Clementi, but he should overwhelm him on the ground.

Preliminary Card
Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries
Prediction- Leites by 1st round submission
Another late replacement on this card, McFedries replaces Goran Reljic who was meant to fight Leites on the main card. McFedries has a punchers chance and always does because he has enormous power, but his lack of ground game should give Leites an easy submission win and submission of the night if Silva decides to knock Cote out instead of submitting him.

Spencer Fisher vs Shannon Gugerty
Prediction- Fisher by 2nd round knockout
Another replacement here as Gugerty replaced Melvin Guillard and ruined what should have been a good fight as any fight where Guillard loses is always a good fight. Fisher should have too much for Gugerty in all aspects of the game and I don’t expect this fight to go the distance.

Matt Horwich vs Dan Miller
Prediction- Miller by 1st round submission
Miller steps in to replace Ricardo Almeida who was forced off the card with an injury. This is a battle between two IFL veterans, with Miller having competed in the IFL a few times and Horwich having fought most of his career there. I think Miller will make it 2/2 in the UFC after his rear naked choke win over Rob Kimmons at Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer. I don’t think Horwich can avoid the takedown or live with Miller on the ground. Miller by rear naked choke in the first round.

Marcus Aurelio vs Hermes Franca
Prediction- Franca on points
This is a fight I wanted to see! Franca is a BJJ black belt under Aurelio and both of these guys now hate each other. It’s student vs former teacher and the sort of storyline you’d see in a bad martial arts movie but it’s for real. If this fight hits the ground it should be a BJJ war as both guys have excellent guards and like going for submissions and both guys are very good on top as well. I think Franca has the better stand-up of the two and that’s why I’m picking him but it’ll be first to make a mistake who loses on the ground. If either guy locks in a submission, don’t expect the other to tap. This could be a really ugly ending similar to Ryan Gracie on Shungo Oyama (or Mir on Sylvia for all you UFC newbies who haven’t experienced the magic of PRIDE yet).

Josh Burkman vs Pete Sell
Prediction- Burkman on points
Sell has better stand-up and better jiu jitsu but Burkman should nullify that with his excellent wrestling ability. The other big factor in this fight is that Sell always finds a way to lose. He nearly beat Scott Smith and he lost, he nearly beat Nate Quarry in the rematch and he lost. I’d like to see Sell win, but I don’t think he will.

UFC 89 Results

These are late but I only just got to sit down and watch the card in full. Despite there not being any big names on this card, all of the fights I watched were good in some way or another and this was a very good event. The UFC really are headand shoulders above the competition when they can put on a quality show like that without really even trying and organisations like EliteXC can go for broke and put on an event as nauseating as the Heat event the other weekend.

Michael Bisping Dec Chris Leben
I really thought both guys weren’t as good as their last showings where I thought both guys looked the best they’d ever looked. Leben’s striking went back to being one dimensional and Bisping was fighting like he was at light heavyweight where he seemed like he needed as much room to work as possible so he doesn’t get ragdolled. I really don’t know why Leben doesn’t throw more kicks like he did against Sakara. The kicks won him that fight because Sakara was in two minds about what was coming and Leben then found a home for his left hand. Bisping in my opinion needs to improve if he is to handle Franklin or Henderson who are his likely opponent in his next fight. I’d be surprised if he lasted three rounds with either of them.

Keith Jardine Dec Brandon Vera
I really don’t know whats happened to Brandon Vera. He no longer throws combinations, he no longer throws punches with any snap on them and he no longer looks like he has the hunger to win a tough fight. Vera was destroying good fighters at heavyweight, yet now he’s being outmuscled and outworked by light heavyweights. Keith Jardine deserves a lot of credit. His style is ugly to watch at times but he finds a way to beat good fighters and he is once again back in the mix. While the likely next title shot at Light Heavyweight will go to the winner of Rampage-Wanderlei, Jardine wouldn’t be too far behind them. If Rashad is to beat Griffin, I think there’s a good chance we’d see Griffin-Jardine II and I think Jardine has a very good chance at redoing what he did at UFC 66.

Luiz Cane 1st round knockout Sokoudjou
Luiz Cane is definately one of the top guys in this division. He has power to spare in his hands and from what I hear about his ground game, people are likely better off standing with him and risking getting knocked out. While I think he has shown that he will struggle against a good kickboxer (Sokoudjou isn’t a good kickboxer), Cane has the power to take any man out. Sokoudjou seems to be a Chuck Liddell style fighter in that he’ll outstrike any grappler who wants to take him down, but against someone with good strikes themselves he’ll look bad. I would like to see Sokoudjou show some of his Judo that he’s famous for at some stage, but I think the knockouts of Little Nogueira and Ricardo Arona have gone to his head, because there are plenty of better strikers out there then him.

Chris Lytle Dec Paul Taylor
What a fight! Easily fight of the night. Two things happened in this fight that I didn’t expect to happen. First of all, Lytle seemed to have the edge standing up even though taylor is a better technical striker. Second, Taylor was a lot better on the ground then I thought he’d be. While neither of these guys is going to beat Georges St Pierre, I don’t think anyone wouldn’t want to see these guys fight again.

Marcus Davis 2nd round Submission Paul Kelly
Kelly was absolute rubbish in this fight. I really don’t know what his strategy was but if it was throwing the same combination over and over again from outside of range then getting choked out the one time he took it to the ground then he accomplished his goal. Davis looked the best he’s ever looked in my opinion. He showed good boxing skills and good Jiu Jitsu when the fight hit the ground with a good guard pass in the first round as well as the finishing guillotine choke in the second round. I think the way to go with these last two fights (this one and Lytle-Taylor) is to match the winners (Davis vs Lytle) and the losers (Kelly vs Taylor II) of the respective fights. Davis vs Lytle is main card material and it would be a great fight as both guys have good boxing skills as well as good ground games although both of their wrestling sucks and Kelly vs Taylor II is a fight that would be easy to sell on the next British UFC.

Shane Carwin 1st round knockout Neil Wain
Carwin’s a beast of a man with huge power. The big test will be if he faces a good kickboxer or when he gets put on his back, but anyone he can take down who isn’t Nogueira or Werdum will be in a lot of trouble very quickly.

Boxing Breakdown: Andrade vs Bute and more

With the UFC taking the cake in terms of quality fight action, I thought I’d get the focus off the boxing and onto the UFC. However, I can’t do that without mentioning these four fights that are up this weeken because despite not being as big as other boxing matches that are on around this time, they still deserve the attention because there’s some good fights on this weekend. Some big action in the Super Middleweight division takes place with the return of Mikkel Kessler as he takes on unheralded Danilio Haussler for the WBA strap as well as a fight between two of the better 168lbers getting around when Lucian Bute defends his IBF title against formidable challenger Librado Andrade. Also fighting this weekend is #1 Featherweight Chris John as well as a battle for the WBC Cruiserweight title.

Librado Andrade vs Lucian Bute
(IBF Super Middleweight title)
Canadian/Romanian #2 Super Middleweight Lucian Bute defends his IBF title against top challenger Librado Andrade tomorrow in this weekends biggest boxing match. While these guys aren’t extremely well known, both of these guys are excellent fighters and this should be a very good fight.

Librado Andrade
The tall Mexican slugger has made a successful comeback since dropping a one sided unanimous decision to then WBC/WBA champion Mikkel Kessler in March of last year. Three stoppage wins with two of them over good calibre opponents (Yusaf Mack and Robert Stieglitz; both fights were wars) has given Andrade a second chance at the title. Andrade is a strange style of fighter; he has the sterotypical Mexican slugger style but like welterweight Antonio Margarito he also has height on his side which can make for a dangerous combination against a fighter who lacks good footwork. Andrade is basically a super middleweight version of Antonio Margarito although he’s not on Margarito’s level. Still he’s a dangerous opponent for any super middleweight out there.
For Andrade to win this fight he’ll have to make Bute fight him. Bute is definately the better boxer out of the two, but he also has some raw aggression which might work against him if Andrade is to land early. The key for this fight for Andrade is for him to impose himself in the first four rounds and do some damage in order to make Bute slower in the middle and later rounds of this fight. He has to force Bute into the ropes and work the body and his uppercut and he has to take Bute’s legs away from him so he can’t dictate when the fight takes place and when it doesn’t. If Andrade doesn’t let Bute know his in a fight in the first four rounds, Bute will run away with the decision.

Lucian Bute
Bute has been on a tear since he stopped Kabary Salem three years ago and Sakio Bika aside, no one has overly tested this young fighter. With his win over Sakio Bika in June of last year, Bika set up a clash with Alejandro Berrio for the IBF 168lb title and didn’t disappoint with an 11th round stoppage to take the title. Bute’s last outing was in February, when he battered former WBA Middleweight champion William Joppy before stopping him in the 10th. With 18 knockouts from his 22 wins, Bute has a solid punch. However, he is probably more of a skilled boxer and his knockout record is more to do with how good his skills are rather then his lethal punching power.
For Bute to win this fight he needs to box Andrade and frustrate the Mexican. Bute definately has the better skillset out of the two fighters and against a tough, strong fighter like Andrade it’s in his best interest to use it. He needs to get in and out of range and use his superior hand and foot speed to land and get away from Andrade. If Andrade tags him he needs to keep his cool and avoid trading punches with him too frequently because despite never having been in trouble in the ring, Andrade is probably the more durable of the two boxers although I could be wrong about that and Bute may have the better chin in which case he could very well benefit from outpunching the puncher and breaking his will, I’m speculating here. Bute’s best bet is to dictate the pace of the fight and fight when he has to and try and frustrate Andrade.

Prediction
I’m sticking with the favourite and picking Lucian Bute to win a hardfought unanimous decision after some shaky moments. Bute is definately the safe bet in this fight because the unknowns about him shouldn’t really have a big effect on the outcome of the fight if he fights smart. If it turns out that his chin isn’t that great or he doesn’t like body punches very much and he wants to trade with Andrade he’ll do well to last 12 rounds but if thats the case and he boxes he should still have the ability to outscore the Mexican. The wildcard in this fight is the 8″ reach advantage Andrade has which could cause Bute a lot of problems if he tries to box from the outside. However with the shorter range Andrade likes to punch at he might very well negate that reach advantage himself and it won’t play into effect as much as it could. My advice to anyone who can watch this fight (for free, although its better then a lot of PPVs down here) is to watch it as it should be a very entertaining battle. Bute by unanimous decision.

Chris John vs Hiroyuki Enoki
(WBA Featherweight title)
The man ranked number one Featherweight in the World (by anyone who knows anything about boxing that is) Chris John returns to take on undefeated OPBF (Oriental Pacific Boxing Federation; its basically like Australasia’s version of the European title although not nearly as Historical) Featherweight champion Hiroyuki Enoki. Not much is known of Enoki, although I’ve kept my eye on this guy since he beat Australia’s former two time World title challenger Nedal Hussein two years ago. Enoki drew his last fight against undefeated Takahiro Aoh in a WBA eliminator. Aoh since challenged WBC titlist Oscar Larios and took the Mexican to a split decision so if thats anything to go by then Enoki could be a challenge to John. However, I really think John is in a league of his own in this weight class. He has excellent boxing skills and good power to match and I think he’ll pick Enoki apart before stopping him in the late rounds. Chris John by 10th round knockout.

Giacobbe Fragomeni vs Rudolf Kraj
(WBC Cruiserweight title)
Did I just read everyones mind when they said ‘Who?’ Well, while I know a little bit about both of these guys, I haven’t seen either fight apart from highlights of Fragomeni’s loss to David Haye. Kraj is a highly touted prospect after beating another highly touted prospect in Matt Godfrey in a WBC Eliminator. Fragomeni is a good fighter but from what I saw of him against Haye I can’t see him handling the better names of the division unless he’s improved a lot. I’m picking Kraj based of his hype more then anything as I haven’t seen him. Rudolf Kraj by unanimous decision. Although with the fight taking place in Italy a hometown decision is on the cards. If you’re reading this for advice when it comes to putting money on boxing, stear clear of this fight unless you get better then 4-1 on either of them; way too many unknowns here.

Mikkel Kessler vs Danilio Haussler
(WBA Super Middleweight title)
Instead of facing former opponent Anthony Mundine (who Kessler whipped over 12 rounds), Mundine decided to vacate the title in order to drop down to Middleweight (he’s since fought at the super middleweight limit which basically shows he just didn’t want another whipping) which leaves this fight. Kessler is a killer and I don’t see him having too many problems with the unheralded Haussler although you never know in this sport. Still, I’m not keen to have a bet on Haussler even at 11-1 whichis what sportstab is paying for Haussler right now. Mikkel Kessler by 4th round knockout in a fight that hopefully sets up another unification fight in this division against either Andrade-Bute or Lacy-Taylor.

Hopkins upsets Pavlik

Former undisputed middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins upset current WBC/WBO and Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion Kelly Pavlik by unanimous decision. Hopkins dominated the fight without ever letting Pavlik get set during the 12 round catchweight contest (both fighters fought at 170lbs). With his use of angles, Hopkins continually frustrated Pavlik and never allowed him to let his hands go while he used his jab and straight right hand to tag Pavlik whenever he was in range. The times Pavlik did try and punch, Hopkins countered with hard right hands and three punch combinations that at times had Pavlik looking in trouble. Both fighters were deducted points; Pavlik in the 8th round for rabbit punching and Hopkins in the nith for holding. Hopkins won on the scorecards by margins of 119-106, 118-108, 117-109.

At 43 years of age this is a big win for Hopkins that will keep him in the running for another big fight. In my opinion it also puts him back in or around the top five pound for pound fighters in the World. He did lose those two fights to Jermain Taylor but both were by close decision in fights where it seems obvious now that he was boiling down to a weight that was hurting him to make. Then he beats two top fighters in Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright before losing a split decision (I thought Calzaghe was an easy winner personally) to one of the best fighters in the World in Joe Calzaghe. This man is still one of the best fighters in the World. Calzaghe has already ruled out a rematch saying his fight with Jones will be his last, but a fight between Hopkins and Jones jnr (win lose or draw vs Calzaghe) will be a big fight. Hopkins-Dawson as well could be a good fight. How about Hopkins-Kessler if Kessler moves up in weight? There’s some good fights out there for ‘The Executioner’ and even though he’s old and he’s boring four out of every five fights there fights you want to see him in.

As for Pavlik, he needs to move back down to Middleweight. His punches have no snap at this weight and he just overall doesn’t look anywhere near the fighter he is at 160lbs. Pavlik should take the mandatory with Marco Antonio Rubio, tear him a new one then look at either Winky Wright or Arthur Abraham. Neither of those guys could stand up to what a 160lb version of Pavlik brings to the table. The matchup was all wrong for Pavlik, he faced a bigger guy that he couldn’t outmuscle who was also quicker and technically better then him who had been boxing since before Pavlik was born. There’s no shame in losing to Hopkins in my opinion and Pavlik is still one of the top fighters pound for pound in the World. One loss to a bigger man like Hopkins who is al all-time great is no big deal.

On the undercard, WBO Featherweight titlist Steve Luevano did what 9 out of every 10 Australian fans wanted to see happen and whipped Billy Dib. Dib was made to look amateurish at times, often getting caught with his hands down and chin in the air by the better techincal boxer Luevano. It wasn’t completely one sided as Dib had his moments, using his hand and foot speed to score and successfully evade Luevano’s counters, but the cleaner, harder shots were landed by Luevano throughout the fight.

Boxing Breakdown: Bernard Hopkins v Kelly Pavlik

Undisputed World Middleweight Champion Kelly Pavlik moves up to fight Former Undisputed World Middleweight Champion Bernard Hopkins at a catchweight of 170lbs today. With just a few hours to go before this fight I can’t think of any better way to spend the hours waiting by thinking about what will happen. This is one of the bigger boxing matches this year with two of the top 10 pound for pound fighters in the World fighting each other. This is also a very interesting stylistic matchup with the defensive/counter puncher/spoiler in Hopkins facing the aggressive/relentless Pavlik. Then throw in the fact that the younger fighter (Pavlik) is coming up in weight to face the older fighter and its really a strange matchup.

Kelly Pavlik
Pavlik had a sudden rise to the top of boxing last year with knockout wins over Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor in wars. Since then he beat Taylor in a rematch on points at a catchweight of 166lbs and then knocked out some overmatched English fighter who’s name isn’t that important (ie I can’t remember who he was). Pavlik likes to throw lots of punches and has deceptive speed, power and strength. He’s built like a praying mantis yet throws with the power of an elephant. His defence is a little suspect especially early but he usually fights at such an incredible pace while still throwing straight punches that he breaks his opponent down.
For Pavlik to win this fight he’s going to have to simply outwork Hopkins. He definately has the firepower to put Hopkins away if he can wear him down, but the early rounds are Hopkins chance in this fight. If Pavlik can avoid Hopkins counter punches early or just do enough work that they are insignificant he’ll win this fight. For probably the first time Pavlik will be facing a bigger/stronger man then him and this could be a big factor in the fight. Pavlik can’t get lazy with his jab, he has to double it up and not allow Hopkins to counter it. If Pavlik gets through the first four rounds without taking any real damage and is still throwing 80% the amount of punches he normally does he should win this fight.

Bernard Hopkins
Hopkins held the IBF middleweight title for about 12 years and was Undisputed Middleweight Champion for four years. After losing his title to Jermain Taylor and the subsequent rematch, he moved up to light heavyweight and took the consensus #1 fighter Antonio Tarver to school. Since then he beat fellow top pound for pound fighter Winky Wright in one of the worst fights I’ve ever seen before losing to Joe Calzaghe earlier this year. Hopkins is a defensive genius and knows every trick in the book. He is basically impossible to hit cleanly and makes everyone he fights look bad. Hopkins biggest problem is he doesn’t throw anywhere near enough punches, probably due to his advanced age.
For Hopkins to win this fight he has to make Pavlik respect his power and limit his outage with his holding and counterpunching. If Hopkins lets Pavlik dictate the pace at all in this fight he’ll get outworked. Its very hard to beat a guy who throws over 100 punches a round when you throw 25-30. I really think Hopkins has to hurt Pavlik early if he wants to win this fight and I think he has more then enough power to do it. He has to make Kelly throw less then 70 punches a round and he has to make him miss most of them and he has to make his punches count. Size, strength and experience will be Hopkins biggest weapons in this fight.

Prediction
I’m going with Hopkins to win a close decision. I think the extra weight will be a big factor. Hopkins has fought near this weight a lot more then Pavlik has and because he is the bigger guy combined with his defensive know-how he’ll prove too much for Pavlik to be able to break down. I think he’ll make Pavlik pay everytime he’s lazy with his jab and he’ll make Pavlik respect him more then he needs to and will potshot his way to a decision victory. I really do hope I’m wrong but the more I’ve thought about this fight the more I see Hopkins beating another guy smaller then him who a lot of people don’t think he should beat. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Hopkins knocks Pavlik out. However, if ‘The Executioner’ isn’t at the best he can possibly be for his age I think Pavlik will outwork him and win a comfortable decision. Still, I can see Pavlik getting all tied up in Hopkins spider web of a defence and Hopkins landing the cleaner shots during the fight. Pavlik isn’t like Calzaghe with his ability to throw large amounts of punches and not be hit, he’s there to be hit and for someone as cagey as Hopkins I think that’ll be his downfall. Hopkins by unanimous decision.

UFC 89 Predictions

With some of the other big UFC events coming up, this one isn’t really getting a whole heap of attention. I think the fact that one of the biggest boxing matches of the year (Bernard Hopkins vs Kelly Pavlik) is on the same day as well is taking some of the focus away for people like me who follow both sports. Still even without a big name on this card there are some bloody good fights on it. Chris Leben takes on Michael Bisping in a main event that will see where both fighters are at. The other four fights on the main card are also very evenly matched fights that could go either way.

Main Card
Michael Bisping vs Chris Leben
Prediction- Bisping by 3rd round knockout
I think the big factor in this fight is that Bisping is the better wrestler out of these two and the physically stronger man. Leben’s power will make for a dangerous fight if Bisping stands up with him and I think he has a good chance of catching Bisping if the fight stays on the feet. Bisping should take this fight to the ground and unleash some ground and pound similar to what he did with Jason Day. The fact that Leben likes to throw up for submissions (similar to the way he swings for the fences standing up) will give Bisping a chance to get to a dominant position and really start landing with some force. Lebens tough and Bisping doesn’t hit as hard as some of the other guys around at middleweight, but I think Bisping will stop him nonetheless.

Keith Jardine vs Brandon Vera
Prediction- Vera by 2nd round knockout
He’s made the weight once and even though he looked like shit against Andy Rees, that happens to just about everyone the first time they drop down in weight. Vera should be used to the weight and it should show in this fight. Should Vera look like I expect him to, the big difference in this fight will be in the stand-up where the fight is likely to take place. Vera is much more fluid and technical and I think he’ll pick holes in Jardine. Jardine’s awkward half brawling/half boxing style will play right into the crisp punches and leg kicks of Vera and I think Jardine will have taken all the punishment his body can handle in the 2nd round.

Luis Cane vs Sokoudjou
Prediction- Cane by first round knockout
This fight shouldn’t go a round. I’m picking Cane because I think he is the better striker of the two and that I think Sokoudjou will get caught up brawling with him and get knocked out doing it. Sokoudjou’s career has been made up of knocking out grapplers like Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona who have very limited stand-up ability. Cane is a real striker with deadly power as he showed in his last fight against Jason Lambert. Sokoudjou is a world class Judoka so I think if he uses this it could come into play, but I think he’ll want to bang with Cane and he’ll pay the price. It should be fireworks no matter what happens.

Marcus Davis vs Paul Kelly
Prediction- Kelly on points
Paul Kelly finally returns to the Octagon after the brawl with fellow Brit Paul Taylor at UFC 80 earlier this year. He takes on Marcus Davis in what should be a hard fought battle. Davis is a dangerous customer who can finish the fight from any position at any time, but I think Kelly will dictate where the fight goes with takedowns and will be able to avoid getting knocked out when they exchange strikes. Davis’ best chance is to win this one by strikes but I think Kelly’s wrestling will allow him to control the fight on the ground and win a close but unanimous decision.

Chris Lytle vs Paul Taylor
Prediction- Lytle by 1st round submission
Lytle should be too well rounded in this fight. Taylor is an exceptional striker and will probably have the edge over the former pro boxer Lytle, but Lytle is tough and has never been knocked out. On the ground Lytle has a big advantage and I think the fight will end up there at some point. Lytle should have no problems locking in a submission once he passes Taylor’s guard. If the fight stays standing, it has the potential to be a war.

Preliminary Card
Shane Carwin vs Neil Wain
Prediction- Carwin by 1st round knockout
Neither fighter has been past the first round in their combined 13 fight career and both are undefeated. I think the big difference is the quality of opposition these two have faced. Wain has fought his entire career in England and I’m not trying to put shit on English fighters here, but Carwin has fought three decent opponents in his last three fights and destroyed them all. Carwin also has a big size advantage and I think he’ll win this fight via strikes from on top. Wain is in over his head here I feel.

Akihiro Gono vs Dan Hardy
Prediction- Gono on points
I’ve heard some good things about Hardy, but like Neil Wain he’s probably bitten off a bit more then he can chew for a first up opponent. Gono’s fought in a lot of top organisations and even though he’s lost a few they’ve been to either top fighters (like Matt Hughes) or bigger fighters (like Mauricio Shogun). Gono’s unorthodox style will probably make it hard for Hardy to put on a good debut and he’ll lose a wide unanimous decision to the crazy Japanese fighter.

David Bielkheden vs Jess Liaudin
Prediction- Liaudin on points
A fight between guys coming off losses, I dare say the loser won’t be in the UFC much longer. Liaudin is a big step down from Bielkheden’s last opponent (Diego Sanchez) but Liaudin’s probably still a step too far for him at this point. It’ll probably be a competitive fight but Liaudin will be that little bit better in all areas to take the decision.

Per Eklund vs Samy Schiavo
Prediction- Eklund on points
Both guys were thrown to the wolves in their debut’s, with Eklund losing on points to Sam Stout and Schiavo getting battered by Clay Guida. It’s hard to know what Schiavo has off his loss to Guida so I could very well be underestimating him, but I think Eklund will win over three rounds with Schiavo spending most of the fight trying to hold onto guard while on his back.

Terry Etim vs Sam Stout
Prediction- Etim by 1st round submission
This is an old school striker vs grappler battle and I think the grappler will win this fight. Both guys are extremely dangerous if allowed to fight their fights, but I’m not entirely sold on Stout’s ground game yet. I may be underestimating him but I think Etim will get one takedown and win the fight off that. Etim’s faced two good fighters in his last two fights in Gleison Tibau and Rich Clementi (in fact both fighters are coming off losses to Clementi) who haven’t allowed him to fight his fight. I like Stout and I hope he surprises me but I think Etim will win by submission pretty quickly.

David Baron vs Jim Miller
Prediction- Miller by 2nd round submission
Both guys are coming into the UFC with a lot of hype behind them. Baron is coming off a guillotine choke victory over Japanese legend Hayato Sakurai and has been in with other top fighters including a PRIDE Bushido fight with Takanori Gomi. Despite Baron being the more experienced fighter, I think Miller has the better technique on the ground and will transition into a dominant position at some stage during what should be an interesting ground fight and take advantage of it.

Klitschko destroys Peter, Dawson defeats Tarver

These are late, I’ve been busy with real life commitments. I should be posting a whole bunch of stuff in the coming days on this weekends fights. Also, some of my stuff will now be appearing on a new site; www.fight-scene.com 

Vitali Klitschko TKO8 Samuel Peter
Wow! Klitschko made his comeback after four years on the sidelines and numerous serious injuries and battered the guy who in my opinion was the 2nd best heavyweight on the planet in a one sided affair. Klitschko never let Peter in the fight and repeatedly tagged him with his monsterous right hand until Peter quit after the 8th round. Peter didn’t look like he belonged in the ring with Vitali.
Despite all the Vitali praise, Peter’s style was always the right one for Vitali. He has slow movement and little head movement and the fight was always going to be decided on what Vitali showed up. Its hard to find any fault in that performance at all. The one thing that I did notice about Klitschko was that he was gasping for air a lot during the fight, but that is to be expected when you come off the sidelines after four years and fight one of the best heavyweight boxers in the World. I doubt this will be a serious problem in future fights because he has those eight rounds under his belt now and the next time he fights he’ll find it easier because of this.
This fight makes me hope that Alexander Povetkin defeats Wladimir Klitschko all the more. If Povetkin wins that fight, Vitali is very likely to want to avenge that loss for his brother. Add to that the fact that Wlad won’t hold a belt as well and that thought makes me very happy as his last two fights have been disgustingly boring. Vitali-Povetkin for three of the four titles is the sort of thing the heavyweight division needs to bring the division back from the slump its in. With Wlad holding the other belts, we’re not going to get unification for a while. First of all though Vitali has to defend against former WBC Cruiserweight Champion (who is now a part time Heavyweight contender) Juan Carlos Gomez. Gomez has a style that could cause the unorthodox Klitschko problem, but he has far from the substance required to make the most of any stylistic advantages he has. Hopefully Vitali stays healthy and keeps busy and gets Gomez out of the way ASAP so we can see him fight one of the other titlists.

Chad Dawson UD12 Antonio Tarver
Chad Dawson dethroned IBF Light Heavyweight Champion Antonio Tarver via one sided unanimous decision last weekend as well. Dawson used superior handspeed and aggression to outwork the 37 year old Tarver over the 12 rounds. The dominant display was punctuated by a 12th round knockdown. Dawson added the IBF title to the WBC title he rightfully owns (he lost this title because he chose to fight Tarver over the Interim ‘champion’ Adrian Diaconu and the WBC don’t actually care about the state of boxing, just lining their pockets) with scores of 117-110 twice and 118-109.
If there were any doubts that Dawson belongs with the elite in this division they were put to rest in this fight. Still, I don’t think he’s ready for Joe Calzaghe. What Dawson should do is, like I said last weekend, give Glenn Johnson a rematch. That fight was very close (I thought Johnson won by 2 points from memory) and its a fight that Dawson will gain more experience from. If he doesn’t fight Johnson, I think he should either face Adrian Dianconu and sort that mess out or do me a favour and take the Linear title from WBO champ Zsolt Erdei so I can stop going to bat for him everytime that subject comes up. With the top guys in this division nearing retirement, Dawson is what the division needs as he is young, good and willing to fight the best guys available.

Boxing Breakdown (October 11th)

Well I got my first piece of hate mail this week. ‘Mr Jones’ as he calls himself told me that my headlines suck and recommended that instead of using ‘Mayorga vs Mosley Predictions’ I should use something catchier like ‘Boxing Breakdown.’ Now normally I’d flame this idiot but I was tired and he was probably right so if you read this Mr Jones, there you go I changed the name. If anyone else would like to send me hate mail or any other kind of non-virus mail send it to this E-mail address (you’ll have to remove the space because my E-mail gets enough junk as it is) angryfightfan@ hotmail.com.
There’s two good fights on this weekend, and the kind people in charge of what gets shown in Australia have opted to show neither of them. For some reason some gaming PPV has been shown instead. In my opinion its bad enough that Professional Wrestling gets shown on the same PPV channel that the boxing and MMA get shown on (well I actually think its bad enough that most boxing is on PPV but thats another story for another day), but then throw in moronic shows like Jerry Springer Uncut and this crap thats on instead of the boxing this weekend and it really makes me wonder who’s in charge? The thing that really pisses me off though is that Sky hasn’t picked either fight up when there are plenty of people who would be interested in watching this fight. Anyway enough bitching, more boxing.

Vitali Klitschko vs Samuel Peter
(WBC Heavyweight Title)
Vitali Klitschko comes out of a three year retirement and a four year absence from the ring to take on WBC heavyweight Champion Samuel Peter. Klitschko hasn’t fought since butchering Mike Tyson conqueror Danny Williams in December of 2004. The WBC were kind enough to let give Vitali another shot at the title when he came back despite him pulling out of his last four fights with injuries (three of them being mandatory defences against their #1 contender Hasim Rahman).
This fight basically boils down to what Klitschko has left. He hasn’t fought in four years and he’s had numerous injuries in that time. The thing that concerns me about picking Vitali is that I wonder how many shortcuts he’s had to take in training to not get injured for this fight? Add to that his already questionable stamina (not as questionable as Wlad’s but its still been dodgey in the past) and I’m not sure what Vitali will be able to do if Peter makes this the fight he wants.
The Vitali of 2004 would have killed Peter in my opinion. He’d just spear him with those long straight punches of his until he falls down. If Vitali can turn back the clock he’ll win this fight. I don’t think he can. It’s been four years since he fought and he’s jumping in with someone as dangerous as Samuel Peter. His reflexes will have diminished and I don’t think he’ll take a punch as good as he did those years ago. I think it’ll be a competitive fight for 2-3 rounds before Peter just starts teeing off on him and wins either a lopsided decision or a late stoppage. For the sake of heavyweight boxing I hope Peter knocks him out. By that I mean that the division is in a worse state then we thought if a fighter can comeback after a four year retirement and whip one of the top guys in his first fight back.

Chad Dawson vs Antonio Tarver
(IBF Light Heavyweight Title)
IBF champion Antonio Tarver defends his belt against former WBC champion Chad Dawson in this interesting Light Heavyweight matchup. Dawson had his title stripped for fighting one of the best fighters in the division and not fighting Adrian Diaconu. Now this wasn’t the worst decision in the World, but the sanctioning bodies really have to work out some sort of agreement in terms of unification fights. Boxing will remain in a mess as long as they strip their champions every time a unification fight takes place. Instead of moving one step closer to finding out who the best in the division is, we end up back at square one.
This fight is youth vs experience. Tarver has looked hot and cold in his recent fights but this is a fight that I think stylistically suits him. Tarver has had his most problems with guys who he couldn’t hit cleanly like Bernard Hopkins and Glenn Johnson. Dawson I think will be there for him to hit and he can use his ring generalship to frustrate the younger man and wear him out much like Glenn Johnson did. On the other hand, if Dawson can get his punches off without getting countered too often early on, he’ll drag Tarver into the sort of fight tarver doesn’t like and wear him down. I’m again going with the underdog in Tarver (who for some reason is 3-1 down here) and I think he’ll frustrate Dawson on his way to a wide points win. Whoever wins this fight, I think either of them owes Glenn Johnson another fight.

EliteXC: Heat Results

Before the fights started it was announced that Ken Shamrock got cut warming up and couldn’t take place in his fight against Kimbo Slice. Seth Petruzelli instead fought Kimbo in the main event.

Seth Petruzelli KO 1st round (0 minutes and 14 seconds) Kimbo Slice
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Sorry, that wasn’t very professional. Still, it was fucking hilarious. Slice got dropped by a light punch and was completely helpless and against a TUF reject. Dana White must have pissed his pants laughing when he heard about it (I’m assuming he didn’t actually watch it). I do like Kimbo, but I don’t like his fans. Kimbo seems like a decent guy who has made a living doing something that he’s good at, but he’s by no means the best in the World. His idiot fans who would go on youtube threads and talk about how he’d beat Fedor and Liddell and Wladimir Klitschko when infact he (was) a big guy who lifted weights and knew how to box a bit fighting stiffs in his backyard. I like it that Kimbo trains properly and wants to make a career out of this, but the fact that he was the face of MMA to the general public is a concern and it was good that he got annhilated by a journeyman on the main event of a nationally televised card in USA. I really think this could be the end of EliteXC, but then again they just announced the Eddie Alvarez-Nick Diaz fight which will be awesome.

Andrei Arlovski KO 2nd round Roy Nelson
The refereeing in this fight was horrendous. What the fuck posseses a referee to stand the fighters up when someone has side control and is looking for a kimura? I don’t think Nelson would have finished the fight from there because Arlovski seemed comfortable but the fact remains; Nelson took Arlovski down, he passed his guard and he was looking to finish but because EliteXC’s target audience has an IQ of -10 and they don’t understand how MMA works they bring it back to their feet because apparently ground fighting isn’t really fighting. As far as I’m concerned, if you don’t like ground fighting you aren’t a true MMA fan. Yeah sometimes it can be boring and stand-ups are required for the lesser shows where they don’t have as much finishing ability but in a fight between two world class heavyweights let the fighters sort it out for themselves. If you get dumped on your back and have your guard passed you’re at a level where you should have to work out of it yourself. It makes me sick watching referees get involved like that.
As for the rest of the fight, Arlovski didn’t look great but then he did take the fight on short notice. I think Barnett has the tools to beat him if he can get the fight to the ground and I think Fedor would ruin him if they fought. The finish though was typical Arlovski with good clean punching and a rarely seen variety of punches in MMA. Roy Nelson fought well and I think with a bit more cardio (I’m not sure if he is just normally out of shape or if the short notice made him more out of shape then normal) then he’d make a good opponent for a lot of decent heavyweights.

Jake Shields submission (armbar) 2nd round Paul Daley
This was a good fight. Much of it was spent with Shields mounting Daley but Daley had his moments as well. Shields was way too anxious to finish the fight and rushed that armbar in the first round which would have proved to be bad if there was more time left because Daley landed some sickening elbows. Shields also seemed to gas rather quickly (that could be because he’s been finishing everyone quickly) which could bring his downfall against better welterweights then Paul Daley. After the fight Shields talked of fighting Robbie Lawler for the EliteXC Middleweight title; with Kimbo’s loss this is the sort of thing EliteXC needs to put on to get more people watching. I’d pick Lawler in that fight, but the winner would be very marketable.

Gina Carano UD3 Kelly Kobald
I only saw the end of this fight. From what I saw, Carano has excellent takedown defence now and throws some vicious strikes. Kobald made a good fight of it though and was in it in the round that I watched. From what I’ve read of the first two rounds it was a good fight and could only help improve the legitimacy of womens MMA. The commentators repeatedly asking the fighters why they fight MMA won’t though.

Benji Radach KO 2nd round Murilo ‘Ninja’ Rua
Radach throws some big punches. Ninja seemed old and just couldn’t deal with his stand-up. He had his moments with the attempted leglocks and probably won three and a half minutes of the first round but got beaten up in the other 90 seconds. Radach has the skills to test Robbie Lawler, especially if he can score with his right hand.