Boxing Breakdown: Antonio Margarito vs Shane Mosley

The first big fight of the year takes place this weekend with consensus #1 World Welterweight Champion defending his WBA (and rightful IBF) World title against Ring Magazine #3 Welterweight and former three weight World Champion ‘Sugar’ Shane Mosley. Despite Mosley being a heavy underdog in a lot of peoples eyes, I find it hard to make someone as great as Mosley who hasn’t shown completely obvious signs of slowing down a 4-1 underdog against anyone. While I think Margarito is definately the favourite in this fight, Mosley should never be counted out against anyone. The guys who have beaten him in the past have outboxed him. No one has ever had success trying to trade punches with Mosley as he is tough as nails and has carried his power to every weight division he’s ever fought in. That is what makes this fight interesting.
There are a few normally big factors that in this fight I find completely irrelevant. For one I don’t think it matters who hits harder in this fight. Both guys can take a punch and I think both guys will take a lot of punches in this fight. I think Mosley has a slight edge in one punch power but I doubt very much that this fight will be decided on a flash knockout. I also don’t think Margarito’s inability to block any punches with anything but his face will play a big part in this fight because that’s the way he fights. However, there’s a few factors that will play a big part in who wins this fight.

Speed
Obviously the speed advantage in this fight has to go to Mosley. Mosley has moved up all the way from lightweight and he was quicker then probably everyone at that weight class as well. Margarito puts his punches together well on the inside, but he lacks the blistering speed of a Mosley or a Mayweather. Mosley can put together large numbers of hard punches with great speed and it’s something he’ll need to be able to do in this fight to keep Margarito at bay.
Advantage- Mosley

The Jab
This is a very interesting factor in this fight. Both guys have never had great jabs. Mosley flicks his jab out more as a distraction to set up his power shots and Margarito uses his jab more as a measuring stick to get himself on the inside. Both guys are very inaccurate with their jabs and often get into a habbit of not throwing enough of them. In Mosley’s last fight against Mayorga he threw very few jabs (183 in 12 rounds according to Compubox) which is something he can’t afford to do against Margarito. Margarito also has the same problem as often he gets lazy and doesn’t throw his jab. In his losing effort against Paul Williams, Margarito threw just 61 jabs in 12 rounds! In his recent fights where Margarito has arguably looked the best of his career, he threw 340 jabs against Miguel Cotto (even though he only landed 30 thats how Margarito uses his jab), and against Kermit Cintro in the rematch he threw 160 jabs (landing 50) in just over five rounds. It’s obvious that both guys have a lot more success when they throw punches, but I give the edge in jabbing in this fight to Margarito. Mosley has the quicker, harder jab and it’s better technically, but Margarito’s jab does it’s job and if he throws it in large numbers it’ll make it that much harder for Mosley to keep him off.
Slight Edge- Margarito (big edge if he uses it)

Workrate/Stamina
Margarito is the workrate king. He holds the compubox record for most punches thrown in a fight (1,675 in 12 rounds). Margarito usually throws over 100 punches per round and when he doesn’t, he gets himself in trouble. Again, against Paul Williams in the last fight he lost, Margarito threw just 650 punches in 12 rounds. Still, since then Margarito seems to have found his form again and his workrate could prove too much for the passive by comparison Mosley. Mosley throws between 30-70 punches a round and will need to be at the high end of that to stand a chance in this fight. In his fight with Mayorga he threw just 400 punches in the entire fight. That sort of work rate will not be enough against Margarito. Mosley also had some noticable conditioning problems against Cotto and seemed to have trouble keeping the pace up. He finished the fight strong, but he was tired in the middle rounds and against Margarito he won’t be able to show any sort of conditioning weakness.
Big Edge- Margarito

Boxing Ability
Mosley has a big edge in this department. Margarito is crude compared to your classic boxer but what he does is extremely effective. Mosley on the other hand is an accomplished amatuer boxer who uses good defensive moves and counter punchers very effectively. I really don’t think there’s a fighter out there who could hang with Margarito in a war, but plenty of guys have shown they can outbox him. Williams did it and Cotto was doing it for the first six rounds of their fight. Mosley’s boxing skills give him a good shot at outboxing Margarito over 12 rounds or even to set up what would be an unlikely stoppage win.
Big Edge- Mosley

Durability
To my knowledge (I can’t be fucked checking boxrec to see if Margarito has been KO’d before), neither guy has ever been KO’d. I’d be surprised if Margarito has ever been knocked down. Mosley has been down twice in the one fight against Vernon Forrest in their first encounter although he had come off on the wrong end of a nasty headclash moments before the knockdowns. Both guys are as tough as they come, but I have to give the edge here to Margarito. He’ll take Mosley’s punches better then Mosley takes his. If both guys land equally Margarito will be the one who comes out on top.
Edge- Margarito

Ring Rust
Mosley hasn’t been fighting that much lately, although all of his last three fights have gone at least to 2:59 of the 12th round. Still, those three fights have taken place over the last 24 months. Margarito fought twice last year as well as late 2007 and in July 2007 against Paul Williams. Margarito has a big edge here especially with the style of fight he brings. If Mosley has trouble going the 12 rounds at a solid pace because of a lack of ring time, Margarito is going to punish him as soon as he slows down.
Big Edge- Mosley

Physical Strength
Mosley is definately a strong guy for his weight. I’ve heard stories that he can bench press over 400lbs! However I feel Margarito is the stronger man out of the two. Mosley has had troubles with stronger guys in the past like his recent fight with Ricardo Mayorga where he had trouble keeping the Nicaraguan away from him due to his physical strength. Also in his first fight with Fernando Vargas, Mosley had a lot of problems keeping Vargas on the end of his punches in the middle rounds. I think a big part of Mosley’s game is his ability to outmuscle guys who try and get inside to nullify his speed advantage and when he doesn’t have that strength advantage he doesn’t look like the same fighter he is otherwise. He may be able to handle Margarito on the inside, but I find it unlikely and if he can I doubt he’ll handle him a the fight gets older.
Big Edge- Margarito

Prediction
As much as I like Mosley, I have to go with the ‘Tijuana Tornado’ in this fight. He’s too young, too strong, too aggressive and too active for the ageing Mosley. I think Mosley will get the better of the fight early, but will be broken down by Margarito’s body work and will tire in the middle rounds. Once he tires, Margarito won’t let him back in the fight and will batter him until the final bell or until he falls down. I don’t think I could pick anyone over Mosley by stoppage until it’s already been done because he’s such a tough bastard, but I think if anyone can finish him, Margarito is the man to do it. I think Shane will gut it out but lose big on the cards. Antonio Margarito by unanimous decision.