UFC 94: Breaking Down BJ Penn vs Georges St Pierre

This fight is quite probably the biggest in UFC history. It’s quite possibly the biggest and most significant in MMA history. It’s not like the PRIDE vs UFC days where you only had the best fighters in the organisation fighting each other, now you have the best at 155lbs vs the best at 170lbs. It’s a first in the sport that the absolute best in the world in one weight class has moved up to fight the absolute best in the world at another weight class. While Dana White compares this fight to Hagler-Hearns I really think he needs a boxing history lesson. While that fight proved to be extremely exciting, this is more like the first fight between Roberto Duran, arguably the greatest lightweight of all-time, and Sugar Ray Leonard, the young champion who was looking for the fights that would have him ranked alongside the other Sugar Ray.

In that fight the unchallenged lightweight champion moved up and fought the new but extremely hyped Welterweight champion in what was a stacked division. Duran and Penn both have their similarities as they are extremely talented fighters but often have trouble getting into the shape they needed to be in to make the most of it. Duran suffered a loss early in his career against Esteban De Jesus, a loss he later avenged twice in extremely dominant fashion. Duran’s De Jesus is like BJ Penn’s Jens Pulver. Both fighters also proved that their skill set was so great that they could dominate much larger fighters. With Duran’s frame being suited to 135lbs, he won World titles in four weight classes all the way up to 160lbs. Penn has already won the UFC Welterweight title and has given highly ranked Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto Machida his toughest fight to date. Leonard and St Pierre don’t have as many similarities but there are some. Leonard at that stage of his career was looking to fight the real big names in boxing with the likes of Tonny Hearns, Marvin Hagler and Duran around him. St Pierre is in the same boat looking to sit on the peak with the likes of Anderson Silva and Fedor Emelianenko. Around him he has his own Hearns in Thiago Alves, a young dangerous contender, his own Marvin Hagler in Anderson Silva, the dominant, unmatched Middleweight champion and of course his Duran in Penn.

Even though the Hagler vs Hearns fight has a lot of hype behind it as far as being a great fight, the Duran vs Leonard fight in Montreal in 1979 is a much better fit for this fight. Hagler vs Hearns was two and a half rounds of mayhem inside the ring with both guys trying to take each others heads off. Duran and Leonard fought a 15 round tactical war with Duran forcing Leonard to fight him on the inside where he was at his best and Leonard trading punches with ‘Hands of Stone.’ This fight has all the makings of a five round tactical war. Both fighters are extremely well rounded and could win the fight from a number of situations. Both guys have excellent stand-up and have won fights via strikes before. St Pierre arguably has the best takedowns in MMA and BJ Penn has arguably the best takedown defence in MMA. Penn’s flexibility is almost unmatched and on his back he’ll likely prove too difficult for St Pierre to gain a dominanty position against or even half guard where he delivered so much damage to Matt Serra in their rematch last year. St Pierre’s wrestling will likely prove too much for Penn to be able to get mount or back control where his finishing ability in MMA is almost second to none. This really is a very evenly matched fight between two MMA masters.

There are two big factors in this fight; St Pierre’s chin and BJ Penns cardio. While St Pierre’s chin has only failed him once, Penn’s cardio is maybe the biggest factor in every one of his losses. In a five round fight with someone who can force the action as much as St Pierre I think this will be the deciding factor. Despite Penn cutting St Pierre’s face up in the first round of their first fight, St Pierre gave as good as he got in the first round of that fight. It really is my opinion that the fight should have been scored 30-27 for St Pierre before it was scored for Penn. Georges dominated the 2nd and 3rd round of that fight scoring heavy takedowns and working his top control. While I think Penn is a different animal now that he is training properly, I think if this fight reaches rounds three and four that St Pierre is going to take over. BJ Penn is yet to prove himself in a war or in a fight that isn’t going his way. Every one of his big wins have been in one sided fashion; Matt Hughes (first round submission), Jens Pulver (2nd round submission), Sean Sherk (one sided third round knockout); all of them Penn was in total control from start to finish. If St Pierre is getting his shots in and getting takedowns early in the fight, I think he’ll break Penn not so much mentally but definately physically. The fact that St Pierre probably fights at 180-185lbs and Penn fights at 170lbs also is a big factor as Penn has never faced someone big and athletic as St Pierre. As far as the improvement of both guys go since their first fight, I think St Pierre has improved more then Penn especially after his loss to Matt Serra.

Prediction
I’m picking St Pierre to TKO Penn in the 5th round. I think the first three rounds will be the three best rounds of MMA skill ever displayed. It will be back and forth with both guys showing high level kickboxing and excellent clinch fighting with the fight hitting the mat on occasion in St Pierre’s favour. However, sometime in the 3rd round I think St Pierre will get Penn in a bad spot and it’ll be all down hill from there. He’ll land some heavy punches or a head kick or some unanswered punches on the ground and then Penn’s cardio will fail him and St Pierre will turn up his game. St Pierre will dominate Penn with heavy punches from on top in the 4th round before finishing him in the 5th round with ground and pound. I think this will truly be an epic battle between two of the best pound for pound fighters in the world and while it may not be as electric as Forrest Griffin vs Stephan Bonnar or Thomas Hearns vs Marvin Hagler, that doesn’t mean it won’t be as good to watch. This fight on paper doesn’t look to be a bar room brawl style fight like those two matches, but it’ll go down in MMA history as an epic battle between two of the best fighters of all-time. Georges St Pierre by 5th round TKO.