UFC 100 Predictions

The big one is finally here, UFC 100 takes place this weekend and I couldn’t be more excited. The main three fights are al pick-em fights and two of those fights are between the best fighters the UFC has in those weight divisions. The main event is the rematch between Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar. When these two did battle last year at UFC 81, no one expected them to be fighting a rematch in the main event of UFC 100 for the undisputed UFC Heavyweight title.Both men have had a lot to say about their first fight and the rematch promises to be explosive.
The co main event in my opinion should be the main event. Welterweight Champion Georges St Pierre defends his crown against the undisputed top challenger Thiago Alves. St Pierre has looked unbeatable again since recapturing the title from Serra at UFC 83. Alves too has looked near unbeatable with three huge wins last year over Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan. This is the biggest fight in MMA Welterweight history.
Also on the card is the battle of TUF9 coaches Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson. These two have built a harmless little feud with Henderson wanting to shut Bispings mouth and Bisping wanting to shut Hendersons mouth for saying he wanted to shut Bispings mouth. The winner of this fight will probably earn themselves a shot at Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title. Also we have the UFC debut of Japanese stand-out Yoshiro Akiyama against in form Alan Belcher and Jon Fitch taking on the man who knocked out his team-mate Josh Koscheck in Paul Thiago.
The preliminaries could make up a Fight Night main card themselves. Stephan Bonnar takes on UFC Hall of Famer Mark Coleman. TUF6 winner Mac Danzig looks to snap a two fight losing streak against contender Jim Miller. Light Heavyweight prospect Jon Jones looks to do everyone a favour and eliminate Jake O’Brien from the UFC and TUF7 runner-up CB Dollaway takes on TUF8 veteran Tom Lawlor.

Main Card
Frank Mir vs Brock Lesnar
(UFC Heavyweight Championship)
Prediction- Lesnar by 2nd round knockout
This fight really is 50-50, but I figured I’d have to pick Lesnar at some stage so I thought I’d start now. Who knows, maybe he’s just my Zab Judah in MMA in that every fight he has, whoever I pick, loses (which is the deciding factor in this pick as I want Lesnar to lose). I think Mir’s ‘improved striking’ is a myth that was created by how good he looked against the shot/staph riddled Nogueira that he fought at UFC 92 and I don’t think he’s sorted his cardio out. If Lesnar gets past the first round, especially with the damage Lesnar will be doing, I think Mir will gas and Lesnar will pound him out. On the other hand, if Mir gets Lesnar in his guard, has Lesnar’s less then two years of jiu jitsu training prepared him for the level of game Mir has? If Mir gets on top at all this fight he’ll end it. I think Lesnar just has to ride out Mir’s conditioning and then his physical abilities will win him the fight.

Thiago Alves vs Georges St Pierre
Prediction- St Pierre by 4th round stoppage
This is another 50-50 fight, but I think GSP will be able to get Alves on his back and work him over. The big factor in this fight could be how the weight cut will affect Alves in rounds three and four and five. Alves striking is unreal; he’s by far the best striker at the top of the Welterweight division. GSP’s chin will make things interesting, but I think his striking is good enough to be able to hang with Alves and avoid the big shots. Alves’ effectiveness from his back and ability to get back up will be a big key because you know GSP is going to get him down at some stage. I’ll be surprised if there’s a submission in this fight unless GSP gets Alves’ back after he gasses, but I think there’s more of a chance of a finish then a decision here. Alves should do well early and I wouldn’t be that surprised if he KO’d GSP in the first two rounds, but I think as the fight wears on GSP’s takedowns will become more frequent and his top game will take it’s toll on Alves and he’ll stop him late.

Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
Basically I think Henderson is the better striker and the better wrestler. Bisping doesn’t have the power or the submission game to finish Henderson, but he might have the conditioning to outwork him. I think Henderson can win this fight by knockout, but I think he’ll outwrestle Bisping and score repeated takedowns during this fight. I don’t think Bisping is dangerous enough to win this fight. His striking is good, but it seems to only excel against average strikers or average wrestlers and his submissions are good but they’re not on the level of a Nogueira which is needed to catch Henderson. It’ll be vintage ‘Decision Dan’ in that he’ll use his greco takedowns and do minimal damage from on top for the full three rounds and frustrate the shit out of Bisping in winning a unanimous decision.

Yoshiro Akiyama vs Alan Belcher
Prediction- Belcher by 1st round knockout
I think Akiyama will be forced to stand with Belcher and while his stand-up is good, it’s not on Belchers level. Akiyama has several knockout wins, but mostly against grapplers. Belcher seems to be getting better and better and I think he’s going to open a few peoples eyes in this fight and score a big knockout win.

Jon Fitch vs Paulo Thiago
Prediction- Fitch on points
Fitch’s wrestling will be the answer in this fight. Thiago will need to get the fight to the ground and he won’t be able to outwrestle Fitch. Even though he KO’d Koscheck, Thiago’s hands aren’t that good and Fitch will outstrike him without doing any real signficant damage.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Mark Coleman
Prediction- Bonnar on points
I’ve no doubt that Bonnar will be too good for Coleman, but I can’t see how he’ll finish him. Coleman will probably prove a frustrating opponent with his takedowns, but Bonnar’s bottom game is dangerous and I’m sure he’s trained escapes and takedown defence so he’ll likely keep it standing. I’m not sold on Bonnar’s punching power though and I think Coleman will last the distance as long as he gasses after three minutes instead of thirty seconds.

Mac Danzig vs Jim Miller
Prediction- Miller on points
Danzig keeps getting thrown to the wolves and I think this will mark three losses in a row for him. Miller is an exceptional grappler and Danzig doesn’t have the wrestling to keep this standing where he wants it or the stand-up game to really punish Miller. Bad style matchup for Mac and hopefully they give him someone a touch easier next time.

Jon Jones vs Jake O’Brien
Prediction- Jones by 1st round knockout
As Jones has stated ‘O’brien has been shooting that same double leg takedown for years’ and I don’t think it helps him one bit in this fight. Jones is always improving and will be too athletic, well rounded and intelligent to get sucked into O’Briens game. Jones by spectacular first round knockout.

Dong Hyun Kim vs TJ Grant
Prediction- Kim on points

CB Dollaway vs Tom Lawlor
Prediction- Dollaway by 2nd round knockout

Matt Grice vs Shannpn Gurgerty
Prediction- Grice on points