UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun; why Shogun shouldn’t be ruled out

UFC 104 is now just a few hours away and despite any lack of depth to the card, the main event gives an almost boxing-like feel to the card with the magnitude of the fight. I write this article mainly because of the lack of a chance people seem to be giving Shogun to win. Having seen a lot of Shogun’s MMA career, I know for a fact that he stands an excellent chance and while I think he’ll have to fight a near perfect fight to win this fight, I honestly think he will win it. No one is invincible and that includes Lyoto Machida and I feel style wise that Shogun has the best chance to win this fight and here’s why:

Muay Thai
Shogun brings something that is yet to be seen by Machida in his MMA career in terms of Shogun’s excellent Thai Boxing skills. Shogun is the stereotypical Muay Thai fighter in that his knees and kicks are far better then his hands (don’t let the Liddell left hook KO fool you, that was set up with the numerous leg kicks he had landed earlier in the round). Leg kicks, if properly utilised, will be a big factor in this fight for the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix champion as Machida relies heavily on his foot speed to work the unorthodox angles that he uses to avoid strikes. If Shogun finds a home for a few well placed low kicks early in the fight, Machida’s foot speed should slow allowing for Shogun to work his top level clinch game and takedowns as well as being able to better capitilise on Machida’s hands down approach. With his legs unable to move him out of range at the speed he likes, fighting with his hands down will be a dangerous approach and something that history in combat sports has told us is that the fighters with the better defensive game are usually over compensating for a weaker chin.

Foot Speed
Machida’s uncanny agility for a man of his size is what has given everyone he’s faced problems in their fights. Shogun’s foot speed was also legendary back in his PRIDE days where he could trap even the most fleet footed opponents up against the ropes. The difference here is the size of the UFC Octagon and the PRIDE ring aren’t even comparable. However, a recent quote from Shogun says that he is now comfortable with the Octagon size and has altered his game to adjust to the larger fighting surface. I think with Shogun’s mobility he’ll be able to cut the distance quicker then anyone Machida has faced and land those leg kicks or get that clinch where he can do damage to Machida.

Conditioning/Durability
Machida is used to fighting at the pace he likes to fight at. I really think he has to get Shogun out of there in the first two or three rounds if he wants to win this fight because of the pace Shogun sets. Shogun set a world class pace in his glory days in PRIDE and either he’s going to get caught early or his pace will wear on Machida. Apart from the odd hiccup in his fights, Machida has fought his entire career at the pace he wants to and has never been through a long war into the late rounds. Shogun sinks opponents with the pace he sets as he is relentless and as soon as they slow down a little bit he becomes overwhelming. With so many questions being asked about his conditioning due to the Coleman and Griffin fights, the question people should also be asking is what happens if Shogun is in shape (which considering the magnitude of the fight is the more likely scenario) and he gets Machida into a dog fight that lasts past the 2nd or 3rd round? Shogun has been into the late rounds in tough fights, Machida hasn’t. Can Machida handle the pace if he’s actually pushed? Shogun also has a solid chin and while Machida is an excellent puncher, I think he’ll have to batter the former Chute Boxe member in order to finish him.

Ground Game
Most noted for his Muay Thai game, people who watched Shogun in his PRIDE days know that the best aspect of his game is probably his ground game. Shogun’s top game is as dangerous as anyone due to his unorthodox ways of striking from the guard as well as his escapes from the bottom (something UFC fans would have seen against both Coleman and Griffin) and his submissions, in particular his leg locks, are deadly. Should this fight hit the ground you’d have to give Shogun a huge advantage. While Machida is a black belt himself and has won by submission, I really don’t think his ground game is at the level of Shoguns and considering the fight is unlikely to hit the ground unless Shogun has enforced his game on Machida somewhat. In that case I think a tired Machida will struggle to deal with a fired up Shogun on top of him.

In saying that…..
There’s a lot that has to go right for Shogun to win this fight. Machida’s hands are far superior and he’ll be the crisper fighter early on in this fight. Plus we really don’t know how good Shogun is off the back of a knockout win over a (seemingly) over the hill Chuck Liddell (to be fair to Liddell, all of his KO losses have come to guys who have gone on to be UFC champions). The last two times Shogun has been into the late rounds he has struggled with his fitness and it even cost him in his fight with Forrest Griffin. But with this being the biggest fight of Shogun’s career, you have to assume it will be the best Shogun we’ve seen and for those of you who have seen what he was capable of in his 2005 run to win the PRIDE Grand Prix you’d all know that this guy is a serious threat. All these so called experts on some of the sites have written Shogun off because Machida is the more hyped fighter of the moment and has looked unbeatable and have even gone to the extremes to say this is a meaningless title defence. To them I say, do your homework, learn the history of the sport and don’t go jumping on every bandwagon that comes along. As a long-time Shogun fan, I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Mauricio Shogun will win by 4th round TKO after kicking Machida’s legs out early and imposing his deadly clinch and top game on him in the later rounds.

Boxing Breakdown: Super Six Round One

The much anticipated Super Middleweight ‘Super Six’ series starts this weekend with two of the three first round matches taking place. For those of you not in the know, pictured above are the six competitors (from L-R Arthur Abraham, Mikkel Kessler, Carl Froch, some promoter, Andre Ward, Jermain Taylor and Andre Dirrell). I’m not sure how the entire format will work, but these men will fight off over the next year to see who is the best. The only top 168lbers not in this tournament are Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade who will fight their rematch later this year. Fighting this weekend are Arthur Abraham and Jermain Taylor as well as Carl Froch vs Andre Dirrell with Kessler-Ward taking place next month.

 This is the first time in a while I’ve gone back and forth so much on not one fight in a weekend, but two big fights. Both of these matchups are even and there’s a lot of variables to take into place such as the fight locations, the fighters weights and their recent results. It’s hard to make any sort of confident prediction with these two fights.

Arthur Abraham vs Jermain Taylor
When these two held their respective belts at 160lbs I always thought Taylor would beat Abraham should they meet. My tune has changed over time and now, especially at 168lbs, I think Abraham is the strong favourite but I’m not at all confident in that prediction for a number of reasons. Abraham is still yet to face someone in the league of a Jermain Taylor. Most of his wins have been over 2nd rate Middleweights with the odd exception (mainly being Edison Miranda who was a dangerous contender when he fought Abraham the first time). However, Abraham has to be the more confident of the two going in with Taylor losing his last fight by knockout to Carl Froch and losing two fights not long before that to Kelly Pavlik. Taylor’s been saying that he has fixed his conditioning problem but if this fight gets to the 6th and 7th rounds again I’m sure we’ll see Taylor revert back to fighting only 30 seconds of each round as he’ll start to question his conditioning again. Abraham has said for a while that he’s been struggling to make 160lbs and this can be backed up by the performance in his one fight north of middleweight in the rematch with Edison Miranda. Another factor to take into account is that this fight is in Germany and will be the first time that Taylor has fought outside of the USA. Taylor should dominate early with his jab and Abraham is a slow starter who likes to get his defence set before launching his offence, but I think come the 4th and 5th round Abraham will take over and his punching power should be too much for a fatigued Taylor around the 10-11 round mark. Arthur Abraham by 11th round knockout.

Andre Dirrell vs Carl Froch
I’ve been scratching my head about this fight for the last few weeks. Froch is such an ugly fighter to watch with his hands down, chin in the air lunging style of his but he’s so effective at it. His defence is horrendous early in a fight but he seems to figure out his opponents angles and adjusts his defence as the rounds go on as he did against Jean Pascal and Jermain Taylor. Dirrell is your typical ex-amateur star who has excellent footwork, handspeed and combinations without the devastating one punch power. There’s no doubt who the more experienced of the two is and it’ll be interesting to see how Dirrell makes the adjustment from fighting guys like Anthony Hanshaw and Victor Oganov to fighting one of the big names in the division. The other big factor here is that Dirrell is fighting in Froch’s backyard which is good to see from a young prospect, especially an American one as the US fighters tend to like to fight in their country. I think two big questions that could decide this fight are how Froch deals with Dirrell from the southpaw stance as his awkward defensive approach could spell trouble against a straight left hand from a southpaw and how Dirrell’s conditioning will be in the second half of a tough fight against a world class fighter like Froch. I’ve been leaning towards Dirrell to pull off the upset and I’m going to stick with it. I think his handspeed and footwork combined with the youth and hunger that Jermain Taylor didn’t have against Froch will see Dirrell be able to repeatedly hurt Froch throughout the fight and score a stoppage in the mid-late rounds. Andre Dirrell by 8th round knockout.`

Aoki submits Hansen in controversial rubber match

DREAM.11 took place yesterday and I’m still a tiny bit confused about what happened in the headlining fight. Part of that is because I’m yet to see the fight with English commentary but I’ve been reading that Aoki’s submission came in the dying seconds of the fight when I was sure that DREAM title fights were fought over the old PRIDE time limit with two (not one like in most DREAM fights) additional five minute rounds after the opening 10. Aoki’s submission came with what I thought was a few seconds remaining in the 2nd round, but most sites are reporting that Aoki pulled the fight out of the bag (I thought he was a mile in front) with little time left in the fight. The other confusing part of this fight for me is the controversy surrounding the upkicks. Again some English commentary would probably clear this all up for me, but I thought upkicks were legal in DREAM and that Aoki was knocked out. The reports being circulating are that Aoki was kicked in the groin (I missed it when I watched it this morning but it was 6am so I’ll have another look later), but considering he was only really bothered about the head injury I’m a little skeptical on this. Still if he was kicked in the groin before the head injury you can’t reward Hansen with a victory that he earned by capitilising on an illegal strike.

The fight itself was a good ground battle. I expected Hansen’s takedown defence to be a bit better but his ground game has always been good enough to beat most fighters so it’s an area he hasn’t needed to work on as much. Aoki’s flexibility is just uncanny and his unorthodox method of passing guard is hard for anyone to deal with. Hansen didn’t give himself as much of a chance as he could have as he never allowed himself to get in a position where his power advantage could be used but a lot of that was due to Aoki’s gameplan. There is talk of Aoki facing fellow Japanese fighter Tatsuya Kawajiri at Dynamite. If that fight takes place I think Kawajiri will knock Aoki into next week.

The Featherweight Grand Prix produced some fireworks and some more controversy. Bibiano shocked Joe Warren in the semi finals before narrowly defeating Hiroyuki Takaya by split decision in the final. It was good to see Fernandes win as he was thrown to the wolves early in his career (he fought Urijah Faber and Kid Yamamoto in his 2nd and 3rd fights respectively which are his only two losses) and he is a very talented fighter. Takaya could be the Japanese superstar of the lower weight divisions with his never say die attitude. His last three fights were all memorable wars (although the two yesterday aren’t nearly as good as the fight with Maeda). The all Japanese semi final between Hideo Tokoro and Takaya was a great fight, but I don’t think it was as good as everyone was making out. Takaya dominated most of the fight and except for that brief scare when Tokoro caught him with the flying knee and series of shots that briefly dropped him it was all one way traffic. The other semi final saw Bibiano Fernandes score a controversial “submission” win over Joe Warren. After a heavy takedown from Warren, Fernandes set up an armbar and straightened Warren’s arm out while facing the ground himself. Without the hold being on for less then five seconds, the referee stopped the contest. Sure the armbar was on tight, but Fernandes wasn’t in the best position to apply anymore leverage. If Warren isn’t in pain, then you have to let the fight go. I agree 100% with referee stoppages if the guy is stuck in there and his arm is continually being hyperextended but Warren wasn’t given the chance to defend it. The final was interesting in that Takaya was fighting where he wanted to fight, but Fernandes’ aggression and wild striking was scoring heavily while Takaya was unable to get anything off. With champions crowned in the four lower weight classes, it’ll be interesting to see if DREAM puts on a Grand Prix with one of the heavier weight divisions next year.

Also on the card, Sokoudjou and Minowaman both advanced to the final of the Super Hulk Tournament. Sokoudjou did as he pleased with Bob Sapp, destroying him once he got on top while Minowaman survived some scary moments in the opening frame to submit Hong Man Choi with a heel hook early in the 2nd round. The two will meet in the final which will probably be held at Dynamite. Kazushi Sakuraba and Tatsuya Kawajiri both scored dominating wins against overmatched opponents with Sakuraba submitting boxer Rubin Williams with a kimura and Kawajiri battering Melchor Manibusan to score a first round stoppage.

DREAM.11 Preview

DREAM.11 sees the conclusion of the Featherweight Grand Prix as well as the semi finals of the Super Hulk Tournament (minus an injured Gegard Mousasi). On top of that we see three of the biggest names in Japanese MMA competing in seperate bouts with the returns of Kazushi Sakuraba and Tatsuya Kawajiri plus Shinya Aoki does battle with Joachim Hansen for the third time for the DREAM Lightweight Championship in the headliner.

Featherweight Grand Prix
John Warren vs Bibiano Fernandes
In my opinion, whoever wins this bout will be the champion and I think Warren’s wrestling ability plus his freakish strength for this weight division will allow him to avoid Fernandes dangerous ground game. This fight looks good on paper but I think it’ll be frustrating to watch as Warren will use his stand-up advantage (which only exists because Fernandes has zero stand-up) to score a decision win.

Hideo Tokoro vs Hiroyuki Takaya
I’m surprised either man made it this far and it’s a shame that one of them gets a spot in the final in my opinion as the other two fighters left are (on paper) the superior fighters and should have had a chance to fight each other in the final. I’m leaning towards Takaya and this will probably be a fun fight to watch.

Super Hulk Semi Finals
Sokoudjou vs Bob Sapp
Unfortunately tournament favourite Gegard Mousasi is out with an injury but we get to watch Bob Sapp take another pumelling. Bar the ‘lucky’ punch, I don’t give Sapp much of a chance here, Sokoudjou is superior in every aspect except physical strength and punching power. Sapp will likely end up on his back and be finished with heavy ground and pound.

Hong Man Choi vs Minowaman
I’ve got no idea how this will go. Fedor had trouble getting Hong Man to the ground and he’s 50lb heavier then Minowa. But then again Choi is so slow that Minowa will likely be able to run around him all night. I’d say they hit the ground at some point and Minowa will get ahold of one of Hong Man’s monsterous legs and do some damage to it.

Non Tournament Fights
Kazushi Sakuraba vs Ruben Williams
MMA legend Sakuraba takes on professional boxer Ruben Williams (who I believe is making his MMA debut). One has to assume that Williams has zero ground game and Sakuraba will submit him quickly when the fight hits the floor. Even standing up Williams might have trouble on his feet if Sakuraba starts kicking his legs out but despite losing a few of his recent contests, Williams has dangerous hands and has a punchers chance in this fight (albeit an extremely small one). If one could take anything from the Tim Sylvia-Ray Mercer farce this year it’s that a pro boxer brings a dangerous skillset for any MMA fighter and shouldn’t be messed around with.

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Melchor Manibusan
Kawajiri by death. This guy (according to Sherdog) has had five pro MMA fights and lost more then he’s one. Kawajiri is one of the more dangerous fighters out there because of his punching power and putting a novice in with him is crazy.

Joachim Hansen vs Shinya Aoki
(DREAM Lightweight Championship)
These two go at it again. Aoki submitted Hansen with a gogoplata back in PRIDE at Shockwave 2006 early in the first round before Hansen replaced Eddie Alvarez in the DREAM Lightweight tournament final at DREAM.5 against Aoki and shockingly pounded him out after four minutes. This time we get to see these two go at it without having a fight under their belts from earlier in the night and it’s a hard fight to pick. Aoki has the advantage in terms of ground skill and speed but Hansen is the better wrestler and striker as well as the stronger man physically. Hansen hasn’t fought since he defeated Aoki which was almost a year and a half ago which could also be a problem for Aoki as he was knocked out brutally by Hayato Sakurai earlier this year. I think this is a 50-50 fight but I’m backing Aoki. I think he’ll take control of this fight on the ground and outpoint Hansen in an entertaining battle.

Tua jump starts career with KO victory over Cameron

 

 

David Tua pushed himself back into heavyweight contention yesterday. Sure the fight with New Zealand rival Shane Cameron only lasted 13 seconds into the 2nd round, but the head movement and hand speed that got boxing fans excited back the late 1990′s that suddenly disappeared just as he reached the top appeared to be back as well as the always devastating punching power that led to three knockdowns inside a 50 second period. Even if Tua turns out to only have the gas tank to fight like this for a few rounds (it’s better then the few minutes he had been fighting like that the last time we saw him) if he can explode on heavyweights like he exploded on Cameron for the first few rounds that single handedly makes him the most exciting heavyweight in the game right now.

I’ve heard people calling for him to get a title shot right off the bat. That’s crazy talk and it should be met with a backhander as far as I’m concerned. Tua needs to get back in the ring in the next two months and fight again and he needs at least three or four more fights before he’s ready to go against one of the Klitschko’s. The Klitschko’s both have nearly a foot in height over Tua and have been fighting regularily so Tua’s going to have to work to get inside and if he doesn’t have more then three minutes of fight time in the bank he’s going to struggle against the Klitschko’s when they start spearing him with their jab and taking him to deep water like they do. Give Tua Rahman or give him McCline. Just give him guys who could take him rounds but guys who have looked right for the taking in recent times. If he can’t beat these guys he doesn’t deserve a title shot. I’d rather not see Tua get another title shot then see him get one when he’s under done. Still it’s good to see Tua back fighting as a headliner rather then on some shitty card in the States. All the years that John Ruiz has stunk the place out (actually I’d pay to see a rematch with him and Tua) the thought of Tua’s 17 second destruction has kept me hopeful that someone else will do the exact same thing to him. The Heavyweight division got a little better with last nights main event.

Not only was the return of Tua great, but the riddance of John Hopoate just made me smile. Finally a good domestic fighter did what should have always been done to Hopoate. I admit I was starting to buy into a little bt of the hype but deep down inside I knew this guy couldn’t be the best Heavyweight boxer in this country and when Wilson dropped him I jumped out of my seat the way I did when Kostya Tszyu decked Zab Judah to win the Undisputed Junior Welterweight title back in 2001. Hopoate just had no skill level, he was a strong fit guy who could throw a right hand but his jab is limp dick, his head movement is non existant and he couldn’t counter punch his way out of a wet paper bag. I always like Colin Wilson as he was your typical blue collar worker who just got in there and always had a good crack at it and this only made me a bigger fan. Hopefully Wilson can get a good payday out of this (and hopefully it’s not against Bob Mirovic).

The undercard also saw two excellent battles in the Cruiserweight and Junior Middleweight divisions. Daniel Ammann outpointed Lawrence Tuassa over six rounds in one of the earlier bouts of the evening. Tuassa had his moments early in the fight but Ammann’s workrate was just too much. I have no idea what Jeff Fenech and Bob Sheridan were watching because anything less then a 59-55 card in favour of Ammann (let alone a fucking draw) would have been criminal. Ammann appears to be a strong and tough customer as he manhandled Tuassa in the clinches and took some bombs without flinching. His skills aren’t top notch by any means but from what I’ve been told he had few amateur fights and has fought most of his career as a pro so they’re going to improve. It will be interesting to see how far he goes. The third fight between him and Dominic Vea has to happen. The other fight on the card worth noting was the opening fight of the evening between Steve Heremaia and Frank Laporto. Heremaia dropped Frank twice in the opening round and showed excellent head movement and punching power but La Porto fought back to take the middle rounds and looked to have Heremaia out on his feet in the fifth only for Steve to rally and win the final round and the decision. I’d love to see a rematch between these two over ten rounds.

I’m Baaaaack

After losing my internet for a period of time and losing interest in checking every news site I can twice a day like I have done for fuck knows how long I was inspired yesterday to restart this page up. I took a short break to try and accomplish some other things in my personal life then when I wanted to start writing on here again my internet went down. By the time it was back up I’d sort of lost interest and with some of the farces going on in the boxing world like Mayweather fighting Marquez and everyone thinking he was god like for cruising along with a guy three weight divisions below him there wasn’t much reason to keep talking boxing.

Yesterday I paid for the Tua-Cameron PPV and four of the six fights were thrououghly enjoyable. This card rekindled my interest in this site (report to come) and I’ll be back to normal from now on hopefully with a few changes. I’m scrapping the rankings as they became chore-like until I can work out an easier way to do them. I’m also going to be making this into even less of a news site then it already is because there’s enough of them around and I consider myself more of a commentator on the sport then a reporter so to speak. I’ll still do the previews of the cards and reports of them as that’s the best way to get my opinions across but this site loss the direction I had intended it to go originally and I’m hoping not to go down that path again.