UFC: Rio shaping up, Shogun-Griffin II to co-main event

The card for UFC’s return to Brazil is starting to take shape and is looking to be one of the more entertaining cards of the year, on paper at least. Middleweight king Anderson Silva is expected to take on the last man to hold a victory over him in Yushin Okami (as bogus as that win was, another story for another day) in the main event of the night, a fun rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions will co-feature. Recently disposed of UFC Light Heavyweight champion and former PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua takes on the man who ruined his UFC debut in Forrest Griffin. These two previously met at UFC 76 in September of 2007 with Griffin winning in a war via rear naked choke in the closing seconds of the fight.

I really think this is a bad matchup for Shogun coming off the battering he received from Jones. Griffin is another big guy with solid fundamentals who has the ability to shut down Shogun’s game with his size, plus he is a much more polished fighter then he was when he took on Shogun in 2007. That fight was the fight that Griffin showed what he had in and he’s only improved since. In saying that though, Shogun didn’t have much in the way of cardio in that first fight and Griffin’s chin has since been exposed a few times so it’s a hard fight to call. Rematches in MMA are often so hard to predict especially when you have two top guys fighting four years after they first fought. Fighters and fighting evolve and change so much in four years that it’s hard to picture how the fight will go the second time around. One thing I think this fight won’t be is boring, the way these two fight (especially if Shogun brings cardio this time) it’s going to be a high tempo dog fight with either Shogun’s cardio or Griffins chin giving out. I am leaning towards Griffin though, I think he’s a bad style matchup for Shogun and it may be the push Shogun needs to think about dropping to 185.

Also on this card is another fun slugfest featuring PRIDE 2005 Lightweight Grand Prix champion Takanori Gomi against rising Brazilian Edson Barboza. Barboza is 2-0 in his UFC career and 8-0 overall, coming off a points win over Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128. Gomi’s coming off a loss to Clay Guida and will need to put the prospect away in order to stay relevant in the division. Add to this the possible return of Royce Gracie and it should be an entertaining card (if not the most important one of the year).

UFC 101 Predictions/Site Update

Apologies for the lack of, well, anything this month so far. I’ve been extremely busy and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I’ll still be covering the big events as much as possible and I’ll do a recap of anything recent in those.

Now, Fedor…. I think it could have been a lot worse (Fedor signed with Strikeforce, not the UFC) but I’d definately have preferred him in the UFC. Overeem has the potential to be a challenge although I think he gets submitted once it goes to the ground. Rogers probably has the best chance but I think he’ll also be taken out once it hits the ground and Werdum will probably go the distance while in survival mode with Fedor not risking going to the ground with him. Some Indian fighter won the K-1 qualifier and will be making up the numbers at the Final 16. Manhoef and Lazceno will take part in this weekends qualifier. That’s about it off the top of my head.

UFC 101 now and it’s a ripper of a card with two quality lead fights and three good fights supporting it. I think Florian has a real chance in this fight. His thai boxing skills are something Penn hasn’t come across and his BJJ is also good although I think Florian will want to avoid fighting from his back. If this fight goes past the 2nd round I think Florian can pull it out, but I think Penn will win the fight mainly through heavy right hands on the feet and ground and pound once he gets on top. Florian will be game but I think Penn stops him in the 2nd or 3rd from either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.

Silva-Griffin is also an interesting fight. Griffin is a big guy with an excellent workrate and heavy kicks. His boxing sucks as he arm punches and slaps a lot and doesn’t do much damage and contrary to popular belief his chin isn’t good although he’s extremely durable to constant punishment as long as the guy isn’t a world class striker. Silva unfortunately is and he’s also extremely fast. I think this will be a blowout with Silva doing a number on Griffin in the first two minutes. It’ll be really interesting if the fight goes past the first round how Silva handles someone like Griffin pushing the pace on him.

Full picks: Penn by 3rd round sub
Silva by 1st round KO
Grove on points
Sadollah by 2nd round KO
Pellegrino on points
Leites by 1st round sub
Riley on points
McCrory on points
Sotiropolous by 2nd round sub
Riddle on points
Lennox by 1st round KO

UFC 101: Penn vs Florian, Griffin vs Silva

Most MMA fans knew anyway, but the two main fights for UFC 101 in Philadelphia on August 8th were going to be the Lightweight Championship match between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian as well as an intriguing Light Heavyweight clash between former champion Forrest Griffin and Thiago Silva. The UFC officially announced the signing of both fights, and it was only then did it come as a surprise that it wouldn’t be Thiago Silva that Griffin would face, but instead Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva would again venture up to the 205lb ranks to this time take on one of the top fighters.

Forrest Griffin vs Anderson Silva is one hell of a matchup. The two things that Griffin bring are his size and his workrate and I’m curious to see how Anderson deals with it. The way I think he’ll deal with it is by knocking Griffin out in the first round of the fight, but what if he doesn’t? I’m expecting Silva to rise to the occasion as he has done in the past when presented with a serious challenge (and no, Patrick Cote and Thales Leites weren’t serious challenges for Silva) like when he fought Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson. The fact remains that Griffin is a big dude with good skills and his cardio is probably second to none, and should be not be slaughtered in the opening moments of this fight he could smother Silva with his workrate as he’s done to opponents before.

As for the title clash, I just hope Penn is in shape because if he isn’t he’s going to be in for a rude awakening. I think one of two things are going to happen in this fight. Either Penn has not mentally recovered from the loss to St Pierre and will train poorly as he’s done in the past and take a beating from Florian or he’ll be extra motivated for this fight in which case I see him winning but by late stoppage or submission after a tough fight with Florian. I really hope he trains hard for this one because him and Florian will be a dynamic matchup between two well rounded fighters which could end up being the war that Penn had with Pulver in their first fight.

One other note, it appears that Keith Jardine will instead face Thiago Silva, but at UFC 102 later in August which is likely to be headlined by Nogueira vs Couture.

Silva and Shogun score wins at UFC 97

Anderson Silva was extended the five round limit for the first time in his UFC career yesterday as Thales Leites basically adapted the butt-scoot technique in order to survive. Leites offered very little offence during the fight as Silva toyed with him waiting for something to counter off. The fight would probably have been the worse in UFC history had Silva not been so creative with his striking, throwing side kicks to Leites’ knee as well as jabbing at his thigh. The fight was painful to watch at times as Silva was standing within range for Thales to do whatever he pleased to him yet Thales was that reluctant to engage that he didn’t throw anything. The fight was only worstened by one of the judges who somehow thought the fight was up for grabs going into the last round and gave Leites two of the rounds. I was hard pressed to give Leites the 2nd round despite him scoring a takedown and ‘working’ from on top for a good portion of the round.

The question remains, when are the UFC going to give Silva a decent challenge. His last three fights he’s faced guys so clearly out of his league that it’s starting to damage his reputation. We know what he’s capable when he’s put in with a guy who he feels threatened by. He destroyed Rich Franklin twice as well as Dan Henderson and Nate Marquadt in performances that would make most contenders think about changing weight divisions. Actually that’s not a bad idea for Silva, maybe a forced move to 205lbs is what’s needed for his career as he’ll likely find guys in his own league up there. Or maybe should St Pierre defeat Thiago Alves they’ll make that super fight for their end of year show. There’s no one for Silva to fight at 185lbs who makes me think will bring any better a performance out of him. Maia has a chance of pulling off a victory as he’s much more aggressive with his Jiu Jitsu game, but I think we’d see Silva toy with him as he pleased as well. It’s got to be 205lbs or Georges St Pierre for Anderson Silva as far as I’m concerned.

In the co feature, Mauricio Shogun returned to form with an entertaining first round knockout of former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck Liddell. The fight was entertaining with both men landing hard shots and scoring takedowns in what was a wild first round. At one stage Shogun dropped down for a leg lock on Liddell who showed (for me anyway) surprising knowledge of how to escape the position. Then in the final minute, Shogun landed a leaping left hook that dropped Liddell and finished him with some of his famous ground and pound. Liddell rose shortly after the stoppage but was unaware of his surroundings or what had just happened.

The fight answered some questions, but left one big one unanswered. Is Shoguns conditioning there yet? He didn’t appear to gas which suggests that it’s definately better then it has been, but we didn’t see him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds where it was painful to watch him against Coleman. The questions it did answer is that Shogun has a world class skill set and it was probably his leg kicks that set up the victory. His ground game is also awesome for those of you who think on that performance that he is a striker. The other question it answered was that this has to be the end of the line for Liddell. It’s three times in his last five fights that he’s been laid out and while they were to three of the best guys in the game, you don’t want to see the guy become a punching bag. I’ve always been a big Liddell fan and while I’m also a big Shogun fan and was happy to see the guy back in form, part of me felt bad for Liddell that he went out like this. Hopefully the guy makes the right decision and retires with his health.

Also on the card, Kryzstof Soszynski scored a first round submission victory with a kimura over Brian Stann. Cheick Kongo battered Antoni Hardonk despite breaking his hand in the first round, finishing the fight with ground and pound in the 2nd round. Luiz Cane and Steve Cantwell engaged in a rather boring striking match that makes me wonder if these guys know that they’re allowed to wrestle? In a bonus fight on the PPV card, Sam Stout and Matt Wiman went to war and fought three very close rounds with Wiman getting the best of the positions and Stout doing more damage. In the end, Stout scored a close but unanimous decision (I thought Wiman won) in front of his home crowd.

On the preliminaries, TUF8 veterans Elliot Marshall and Vinny Magalhaes went the distance in a fight many people thought Vinny should of won (according to a few reports he had Marshall mounted and eating punches in two rounds while Marshall did shit) yet Marshall scored a 30-27 victory on two cards and 29-28 on the third. Canadians Denis Kang, TJ Grant and Mark Bocek all scored much needed wins, while David Loiseau copped a beating from Ed Herman and Jason MacDonald was stopped in the first round by Nate Quarry.

Full Results
Anderson Silva UD5 (50-46, 49-46, 48-47) Thales Leites
Mauricio Shogun TKO1 (punches) Chuck Liddell
San Stout UD3 (29-28) Matt Wiman
Kryzstof Soszynski Sub1 (kimura) Brian Stann
Cheick Kongo TKO2 (punches) Antoni Hardonk
Luiz Cane UD3 (30-27, 29-28, 30-27) Steve Cantwell
Denis Kang UD3 (30-27) Xavier Foupa Pokam
Nate Quarry TKO1 (punches) Jason MacDonald
Ed Herman UD3 (30-27, 30-26, 30-27) David Loiseau
TJ Grant SD3 (29-28, 28-29, 30-27) Ryo Chonan
Mark Bocek Sub1 (Rear Naked Choke) David Bielkheden
Elliot Marshall UD3 (30-27, 29-28, 30-27) Vinny Magalhaes

UFC 97 Weigh-ins

All fighters made weight for the weigh in bar David Bielkheden who had two hours to drop an extra pound (not sure if he did or not). Shogun looked in as good a shape as I’ve seen him since he went to the UFC. Anderson Silva looked to have a good size advantage over Leites despite coming in at 182lbs. The weigh ins went off without any incidents with Liddell getting by far the biggest reception followed closely by returning Canadian star David Loiseau who challenged Rich Franklin for the UFC Middleweight Championship at UFC 58.
The full list of weights:

Thales Leites 185
Anderson Silva 182lbs

Chuck Liddell 206lbs
Mauricio Shogun 206lbs

Antoni Hardonk 249lbs
Cheick Kongo 232lbs

Luiz Cane 206lbs
Steve Cantwell 205lbs

Krzysztof Soszynski 204lbs
Brian Stann 206lbs

Vinicius Magalhaes 204lbs
Elliot Marshall 205lbs

Xavier Foupa-Pokam 185lbs
Denis Kang 185lbs

Jason MacDonald 186lbs
Nate Quarry 186lbs

Ed Herman 186lbs
David Loiseau 185lbs

David Bielkheden 157lbs
Mark Bocek 154lbs

Ryo Chonan 171lbs
TJ Grant 169lbs

Sam Stout 155lbs
Matt Wiman 155lbs

UFC 97 (Silva-Leites, Liddell-Shogun) Predictions

 

I left these a little later then I wanted to and I apologise to all of you who want to look good to your friends by stealing my in form predictions, but the De La Hoya retirement put it back a few days. There’s only really two fights on this card worth going into, actually there’s only one but the other is for a title so this won’t be as in depth as some of my other predictions articles. Basically this card consists of a mismatch title fight between one of the best (if not the best) pound for pound fighters in MMA against a guy who hasn’t really proven himself against top competition. Thales Leites is an excellent fighter, but he quite simply isn;t ready for a title shot against a dominant champion like Silva. Why Okami didn’t get his shot this time around I have no idea as Leites hasn’t been that much more marketed. The real fight on this card is the Chuck Liddell vs Mauricio Shogun battle in the co-feature which sees the former UFC Light Heavyweight champion against the PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion. The rest of the card will be entertaining for sure, but nothing with any major implications.

Main Card
Anderson Silva vs Thales Leites
(UFC Middleweight Championship)
Prediction- Silva by 1st round KO
Anderson Silva didn’t look that motivated in his last title defence against Patrick Cote and seemed to cruise through the bout until Cote busted his knee. With another soft touch (compared to Silva anyway) I think Silva needs to and will make an example of Leites to basically say that he needs a challenge and it’s not safe letting these guys anywhere near him. Leites is a solid ground fighter with good power standing up and a good chin, but his stand-up is technically retarded, his wrestling is pretty average and his stamina is questionable. His top game is as good as anyones in MMA. He transitions to the back with ease, his ground and pound is world class and he has very strong submission abilities. In saying that, I really think his stand-up is that bad that if Silva opens with a barrage he’ll take Leites out.

Chuck Liddell vs Mauricio Shogun
Prediction- Liddell by 2nd round KO
I want to try and educate some of those who haven’t seen much of Shogun. The man is a ground and pound fighter. He is not and never will be a Muay Thai gun like so many claim. His hands are awful as evidenced by the fact that Coleman repeatedly caught him with his Great Grandpa jab. Shogun’s strength has always been his knees in the clinch, his striking from on top and his escapes from the bottom. We all know what Liddell’s strengths are; he avoids clinches and takedowns like they’re AIDS and he knocks mother fuckers out. I think this fight is a bad matchup for Shogun stylistically. I’m definately not one of those people who think Shogun was always overrated because the Shogun that brutalised Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona at PRIDE Final Conflict 2005 would stand a chance with any man. Shogun I don’t think trains as hard as he used to when he was fighting out of Chute Boxe and his physical strength doesn’t match up to Liddell’s. ‘The Iceman’ should wear him down while avoiding the clinch where Shogun is most dangerous and finish him off in the 2nd round. I’d love to see Shogun return to form and retire Liddell (not because I don’t like Liddell, not at all) so all those Shogun haters can be silenced but this fight is a bad matchup for him.

Kryzstof Soszynski vs Brian Stann
Prediction- Stann on points

Antoni Hardonk vs Cheick Kongo
Prediction- Hardonk by 2nd round KO

Luiz Cane vs Steve Cantwell
Prediction- Cane by 1st round KO

Preliminaries
Vinny Magalhaes vs Elliot Marshall
Prediction- Magalhaes by 1st round submission

Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs Denis Kang
Prediction- Kang by 2nd round submission

Jason MacDonald vs Nate Quarry
Prediction- Quarry by 2nd round KO

Ed Herman vs David Loiseau
Prediction- Herman on points

David Bielkheden vs Mark Bocek
Prediction- Bocek on points

Ryo Chonan vs TJ Grant
Prediction- Grant on points

Sam Stout vs Matt Wiman
Prediction- Wiman on points

St Pierre batters Penn at UFC 94

Georges St Pierre defended his UFC Welterweight Championship on Sunday with a 4th round TKO win over BJ Penn after Penn didn’t answer the bell for the 5th and final round. The win was the second successful defence of th title for St Pierre, who took it from Matt Serra at UFC 83 last year with a 2nd round TKO win. The win sets up a fight between St Pierre and number one contender Thiago Alves who is coming off victories over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last two outings. The loss also likely sets up a fight between BJ Penn, who holds the UFC Lightweight title, and number one Lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

The fighters clinched up quickly after the opening round began and St Pierre tried for the entire round to take Penn down but with no success. The fighters seperated a few times with Penn landing a hard right hand on one occassion and St Pierre landing a solid right of his own on another. The round proved to be the tactical battle many anticipated and St Pierre probably won due to his aggression. Round two was a completely different story though. St Pierre again shot in for a single leg takedown and this time managed to get Penn on his back. Working from inside Penn’s rubber guard and butterfly guard, St Pierre worked Penn over with elbows and punches while looking to pass guard. The times he managed to get to side control, Penn used freakish escapes to get back to guard but that was all he was able to do as St Pierre won the second round big.

Penn looked like the minutes rest between the second and third round did him not good as he appeared sluggish at the start of the third round. St Pierre landed solid jabs and a devastating leg kick with little attempt at defence from the former Welterweight Champion before St Pierre again took Penn to the ground. Despite being able to pass Penn’s guard more in this round, St Pierre’s offence wasn’t as dominating as in the previous round. Still, the round ended with St Pierre on top working Penn over with strikes. Penn looked even more tired at the start of the 4th and after eating several punches and leg kicks, he found himself in the familiar position of being on his back. St Pierre’s confidence was growing as he often attempted to mount Penn with little regard for the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champions guard. Midway through the round St Pierre landed his most damaging strikes of the round and after referee Herb Dean asked for Penn to fight back, ‘GSP’ turned it up. St Pierre proceeded to punish Penn with devastating punches from on top and was probably only a few seconds away from stopping Penn when the round ended.

A frustrated looking St Pierre walked back to his corner and a physically beaten Penn staggered back to his. In the corner the doctor and referee both examined Penn before JD Penn, BJ’s brother and manager told the doctor he wanted to stop the fight and awarded St Pierre with the TKO victory. The win brings St Pierre’s record to 18-2 with only five fights going the distance. Penn’s record drops to 13-5 and likely puts an end to Penn’s aspirations of winning titles in every weight division. With Thiago Alves likely next on the French-Canadian’s plate, a possible mega fight with Anderson Silva will have to wait. That fight would pit, in my opinion anyway, the two top pound for pound fighters in MMA against each other.

On the undercard, Lyoto Machida finally scored a knockout win in the UFC, knocking Thiago Silva out at the bell to end the first round. After clowning Silva in his usual way, Machida twice dropped the undefeated Brazilian and used clever inside trips on other occassions to put Silva on his back. One of these trips ended with Silva in guard and Machida delivered two bombs from a standing position that left Silva unconscious as the buzzer went to end the first round. Referee Yves Lavigne took a few seconds before calling the fight with Silva out on the mat. The win, according to Dana White, will earn Machida a shot at the title should Keith Jardine defeat Rampage Jackson at UFC 96. If Jardine is victorious, Machida will fight Evans for the belt instead.

Young star Jon Jones spoiled Stephan Bonnar’s return to the Octagon with a variety of spinning back kicks, highlight reel takedowns and a spinning elbow which nearly knocked Bonnar out in the 2nd round. Despite a late rally from the TUF1 runner-up, Jones held on for a unanimous decision victory. Karo Parisyan won in his comeback via split decision in an uneventful fight with fellow Judoka Dong Hyun Kim. Clay Guida took out another TUF winner, scoring a split decision over Nate Diaz in a fight that resembled a wrestling match. The times Diaz broke free and used his hands he looked a completely different fighter, even hurting Guida in the third round, but he spent too much time being outwrestled by Guida and was on the wrong end of a close decision.

Full Results
Georges St Pierre TKO4 (corner stoppage) BJ Penn
Lyoto Machida KO1 (punch) Thiago Silva
Jon Jones UD Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan SD Dong Hyun Kim
Clay Guida SD Nate Diaz
Jon Fitch UD Akihiro Gono
Thiago Tavares UD Manny Gamburyan
John Howard SD Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien SD Cristian Wellisch
Dan Cramer SD Matt Arroyo

Post UFC 93 Thoughts

Dan Henderson SD Rich Franklin
I thought Henderson won and I’m glad he did. The winner was always going to move down to Middleweight to fight Michael Bisping and the winner of that was likely going to get a crack at Anderson Silva at the end of the year or early next year. Franklin’s been spanked by Silva twice in extremely one sided bouts while Henderson gave a good account for himself until he pulled guard in his challenge for Silva’s belt. A rematch with Henderson on the back of him beating Bisping (assuming he wins) and Franklin would be much for interesting then watching Franklin’s nose get rearranged by the Spider again.
On the judging, 30-27 for Franklin was retarded. The first two rounds were kind of close, but Franklin definately didn’t win both of them. I thought the 2nd round could have gone either way but the first was definately Henderson’s with the damage he did at the start of the round. Franklin definately won the 3rd but throughout the fight I thought Henderson did better work when he was in a better position then Franklin did when he had the fight where he wanted it. Franklin seemed pissed after the fight (we didn’t get an interview with him because the PPV had no time left) but you would be having not lost a decision before. Losing by close decision sucks and you don’t know how much it sucks until it happens to you. ‘Decision Dan’ strikes again with his 8th split decision won of his career.

Mauricio Shogun KO3 Mark Coleman
I have to say I was extremely impressed with Colemans effort and extremely dissappointed in Shogun. First of all on Coleman, as much as I like to rip on the guy because of his old school approach to a fast evolving sport, I’ll always be a fan of his. He showed an iron chin and an almost unmatched determination in there and it’s great that he got a chance to fight on a big show like this and put in a performance like that. His stamina still sucks (which is part of the reason why I like watching him fight as sick as it does sound) and it’ll always restrict him from beating anyone any good but he continued to fight and it wasn’t over until it was over and you always have to respect that no matter how old school his fighting approach is. That’s not to say I thought it was a great fight because it wasn’t but it would have been a hell of a lot worse had Coleman just lay down in the first round when he got tired.
I really thought the stoppage was bullshit. He was on all fours and he was hurt, but it isn’t boxing; Shogun has to finish him. Let Shogun follow-up and stop it if Coleman doesn’t defend himself from there. Coleman probably would have taken Shogun down again from that position which brings me to Shogun. What the fuck happened to the Shogun who dominated the 2005 Grand Prix? Anyone who says he was always this bad is a fucking moron. The Shogun of 2005 had stamina to fight for 20 minutes at full speed (see his fight with Little Nogueira) and a ground game as good as any Light Heavyweight (again see his fight with Little Nogueira as well as his fights with Randleman, Arona and Overeem).
Shogun’s weak area has always been his boxing and it showed again tonight even though he finished the fight with punches. His strengths have always been his top game and the clinch. After the card it was announced that Shogun will meet Chuck Liddell in the main event at UFC 97. Shogun is going to have to make some serious improvements in his form if he wants to last a round with Liddell. He’s not going to get the fight to the ground and, like Wanderlei Silva, he’ll have a hard time getting a clinch with Liddell where he can deliver his knees. I really hope Shogun can get his old form back because Shogun vs Liddell in 2006 was an MMA fans wet dream.

Alan Belcher Sub2 Denis Kang
What can be said about Denis Kang that hasn’t been said before? The guy has a seriously bad habbit of losing fights he’s dominating by giving his opponents submissions. He’s one of those top grapplers like Jeremy Horn who seem to get submitted a lot by guys they should rape on the ground. Credit to Belcher for finishing with the choke though even if he was getting dominated by a BJJ fighter in his preferred Muay Thai style.

Rampage vs Jardine
It was announced during the broadcast that Rampage will indeed headline the UFC 96 card, but against Keith Jardine and not Rashad Evans. I was skeptical that the title fight would come off so close to the last one, but they’ve come up with a decent main event which tops off the card nicely. Gabriel Gonzaga vs Shane Carwin was never going to sell and Rampage is one of the UFC’s biggest stars. I won’t be looking forward to it as much as I’m looking forward to UFC 94, but it’s a lot better then UFC 95.

Angry Match Maker
New Feature. It might not last but what the hell. After every UFC I’m going to do a list of matchups that could be made based off the results.

Henderson vs Bisping- Makes sense if both guys are coaching on TUF9.
Franklin vs Luiz Cane- A good way for Franklin to bounce back from a loss and a good chance for Cane to prove he belongs in the big time.
Shogun vs Liddell- Already made, it makes sense as both guys were scheduled to fight last year but were both injured. With Liddell coming off a loss a win over Shogun would be a good bounce back for him.
Coleman vs Wanderlei Silva- No one wants to see a repeat of Coleman-Cro Cop or Coleman-Fedor II. He has to fight a 205lber who can be taken down easily and who is still marketable. Wanderlei Silva would be this fighter. There’s bad blood there with the Hammer House vs Chute Boxe rivalry and both guys need a win. Put it on the UFC 97 undercard and then match the winners (hopefully Liddell vs Wanderlei) in a main event later in the year or as a feature attraction on the year end card.
Belcher vs Palhares- Both of these guys are up and comers in the UFC and it’d be a good way to see which one of them belongs in the upper end of the 185lb division.
Lytle vs Davis II- Watch the first fight, these guys could fight three times every year and I wouldn’t care.

Henderson edges Franklin, Shogun KOs Coleman

Former PRIDE 183lb and 205lb Champion Dan Henderson won a narrow split decision victory over former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin. The fight took place earlier today (Sydney time) at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland. Henderson started fast, landing one of his feared overhand rights that backed Franklin into the cage in the early moments of the fight. Using his Olympic Greco Roman skills, Henderson scored a takedown and started to land punches from inside Franklins guard. Franklin eventually worked his way back to his feet where he had some success using left body kicks on Henderson, however Henderson’s early work was enough to take the round on my card.

Round two started the same as round three ended, with Franklin controlling the fight standing up but doing little damage to the former two-time Olympian. Midway through the round Henderson again got a grip on Franklin and tripped him to the mat where he worked from inside the former UFC champions guard. Franklin attempted a triangle but Henderson was playing it safe and ended the round after having been on top for the last half of the 2nd frame. With a 20-18 lead on my card, Henderson again scored a takedown early in the 3rd, but Franklin managed to escape and landed several punches to Henderson while he was turtled up. They worked their way back to their feet where Franklin again got the better of a tiring Henderson. With 40 seconds remaining, Henderson pawed with his left hand and poked Franklin in the eye. Franklin was given time to recover and the fight finished on the feet with Franklin taking the only real clear round of the fight.

The judges scored the bout 29-28 Henderson, 30-27 Franklin and 29-28 for Henderson giving him the split decision victory. I scored the bout 29-28 for Henderson with him winning the first two rounds and Franklin winning the third. With the win, Henderson likely earns himself a spot coaching the USA team on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter which will pit a team from the USA and a team from the UK. His rival coach will be British MMA star Michael Bisping and the two will likely meet later in the year. The winner of that fight will probably be condsidered the number one contender for Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title.

In the co feature of the card, PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua made a successful return to the Octagon by gaining revenge for the only loss of his PRIDE career against UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman. Rua suffered a broken arm as a result of a takedown during the fight at PRIDE 31: Unbreakable 49 seconds into the fight. Despite Coleman scoring numerous takedowns during the fight, Shogun was the fighter doing the damage in round one with vicious leg kicks and right hands to the face. Coleman looked to be tired at the end of the first round but fought valiantly in the second round again taking Shogun down a few times. Each time Shogun was able to escape and land with clean shots as Coleman couldn’t hold his hands above his waist. With both guys exhaused and the fight becoming painful to watch, Coleman took Shogun down again in the third round and looked like causing a massive upset. Shogun worked his way to his feet and landed what was ruled as an illegal knee to the head while Coleman was on his knees (replays showed the knee clearly landing to the body). With both guys again standing up, Shogun unleashed a flurry of punches that put Coleman down again and the referee stopped the fight. With the win, Shogun will meet Chuck Liddell at UFC 97.

In other action former PRIDE contender Denis Kang completely dominated Alan Belcher during the first round only to get caught in a deep guillotine choke midway through the 2nd round. With the submission, Belcher earned submission of the night honours. Rousimar Palhares grinded out a unanimous decision victory over a surprisingly game Jeremy Horn. Despite taking a beating in the first round, Horn was able to get on top in the 2nd and even had the Jiu Jitsu expert mounted for a period, however Palhares better top game and wrestling earned him the shutout decision win. In what won fight of the night, Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle went to war, trading hands and shins for the full three minutes of the fight. The fight was very close with neither fighter wanting to take it to the ground, but Davis sealed the decision win with a dominant round three. Both guys expressed interest in a rematch later in the year.

Preliminary Results
John Hathaway d. Thomas Egan by TKO at 4:36 of Round one (elbows)
Martin Kampmann d. Alexandre Barros by TKO at 3:07 of Round two (punches from back mount)
Eric Scaher d. Antonio Mendes by TKO at 3:34 of Round one (punches from mount)
Thomas Drwal d. Ivan Serati by TKO at 2:02 of Round one (ground and pound)
Dennis Siver d. Nate Mohr by KO at 3:47 of Round three (spinning back kick)

UFC 93 Predictions

The first event of the combat sports calender takes place this weekend in Ireland with UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson. As the name suggests, the main event is an excellent fight between former UFC Middleweight Champion Rick Franklin and former PRIDE Welterweight (183lbs) and Middleweight (205lbs) Champion Dan Henderson. The winner is rumoured to be coaching the USA team in the upcoming Ultimate Fighter series ‘TUF9: USA vs UK.’ Also appearing on the card is the return of UFC Hall of Famer and former UFC Heavyweight Champion and PRIDE 2000 Open Weight Grand Prix Champion Mark ‘the Hammer’ Coleman who will take on PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix winner Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua in a Light Heavyweight battle. There’s two other decent battles on the main card with PRIDE star Denis Kang making his Octagon debut against Alan Belcher and a fight between two of th UFC’s toughest customers in Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle. Considering the talent on the last two UFC PPV cards and the talent that will be on show at UFC 94, this card is an excellent card with two of the UFC’s best fighters without a title battling it out in what should be a very close affair.

Main Card
Rich Franklin vs Dan Henderson
Prediction- Franklin on points
This is a very tough fight to call. Considering this fight is being fought at 205lbs where Henderson has had more success in the past (even though Franklin is undefeated at this weight class), it makes a lot of things very interesting. Both of these guys are very well-rounded and evenly matched. Henderson obviously has the edge in wrestling considering he’s a two time Olympic Greco Roman Wrestler, but even though Henderson has been a Champion at 205lbs, I think Franklin is the bigger man. Franklin also is the better technical striker out of the two although I think Henderson has the power advantage in this fight. Henderson also has an iron chin which will mean that if Franklin is to win, it’ll likely be over three hard fought rounds.
In saying that though, I’m picking Franklin to win this fight by close decision. I think Henderson on his best night is just a bit better then Franklin in most areas of the game with his power balancing out Franklins accuracy and speed, but the big thing that Franklin has over Henderson is consistency. Henderson has a terrible habbit of fighting at about 60-80% of his capacities and with his advanced age (okay, 37 isn’t old old, but it’s showing with Henderson), I think Franklin may just outwork him. Franklin is also the better tactical fighter out of the two as Henderson often puts himself in bad spots that he doesn’t need to go to (ie pulling guard against Little Nogueira in their PRIDE fight and then getting arm-barred about 30 seconds later). In his last fight against Rousimar Palhares, Henderson didn’t look himself and it may be because of the weight cut, but I’m thinking Henderson is getting on a bit and unless he fights at 90-100% of his capabilities he’ll struggle against Franklin who seems to be enjoying fighting again after Silva beat him down in the rematch. I’ll say it now though, I won’t be in the least bit surprised if Henderson wins this one by brutal knockout. His one-punch knockout power is deadly and Franklin has shown that he is suspect to a right hand straight down the middle. The safe pick in this fight though is with the more consistent Rich Franklin.

Mark Coleman vs Mauricio Shogun
Prediction- Shogun by 2nd round knockout
Is it just me who thinks that it’s mean making a former 250lb fighter cut down to 205lbs for the first time in his 40s? Any stamina problems Coleman has had in his career (the only time he hasn’t had stamina problems was the PRIDE 2000 GP and he didn’t fight anyone who was going to exploit them that night) will be quadrupled by the fact that he has to dehydrate and rehydrate before the fight. Add that to the fact that this fight is overseas so he’s going to have to adjust to the timezone as well and I really think Coleman’s gas tank will be lucky to last two minutes.
So basically Coleman needs to go out, get a takedown (there’s no way in hell he KO’s Shogun standing up), hope that breaks his arm again and if it doesn’t he has to hope he can either get a neck crank on a world class BJJ guy or stop him with one of his right hand punches before his gas tank runs out two minutes in. I think Coleman will get his takedown because Shogun hasn’t got much in the way of takedown defence but he’ll eventually work his way back to his feet (he might have to do it two-three times but he’ll do it every time) and each time he gets back to his feet he’ll do a bit more damage. About four minutes in Coleman will have his hands on his knees the way he always does when he gasses and Shogun will start tearing him apart eventually TKOing him in the 2nd round.

Alan Belcher vs Denis Kang
Prediction- Belcher on points
I’m not too sure what to make of Kang. The guy had some serious skills towards the end of PRIDE, coming 2nd in the 2006 Welterweight Grand Prix. Since then though he’s lost two fights inside the distance (one to Gegard Mousasi in the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix in which he was favourite to win the whole thing). I think a combination of bad form and ‘Octagon Jitters’ will take place here and Belcher has looked good striking against guys with limited stand-up like Kang. I think Belcher keeps the fight standing and takes a clear-cut unanimous decision.

Marcus Davis vs Chris Lytle
Prediction- Davis on points
Excellent fight. This is the fight I’m looking forward to the most after Franklin-Henderson. This should be a war with both guys favouring the stand-up mode although both of them have good skills on the ground. I think Lytle should win this fight if he puts Davis on his back, but he’ll want to stand and trade and Davis has the better hands. I predict this fight to be fight of the night and Davis to win by split decision in the early candidate for fight of the year.

Jeremy Horn vs Rousimar Palhares
Prediction- Palhares by 1st round submission
It puzzles me how someone like Travis Lutter can be cut from his contract after losing to Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin yet Jeremy Horn can come in with absolutely no interest in fighting and get submitted every time and still be allowed back for more. I like Horn (and I don’t like Lutter I’ll point out) and I hope he pulls off the upset, but Palhares will have too much for him on the ground. I expect he’ll catch Horn in either a guillotine choke or a triangle choke during a scramble. Probably submission of the night.

Preliinary Card
Alexandre Barros vs Martin Kampmann
Prediction- Kampmann on points
I’ve been told that Barros is a tough son of a bitch and I think that combined with Kampmann’s first fight at the new weight class (170lbs) will allow Barros to last the distance, but he won’t be in the fight.

Antonio Mendes vs Eric Schafer
Prediction- Mendes by 2nd round knockout
This fight also has a chance at getting fight of the night. I don’t remember Mendes’ fight with Thiago Silva, but I seem to recall that he has no ground game and excellent kickboxing. Schafer on the other hand has an excellent ground game but limited striking and no stamina. I think Mendes will ride out the storm on the ground and then tear Schafer apart with some deadly combinations.

Tomasz Drwal vs Ivan Serati
Prediction-Drwal by first round knockout
This fight will be decided on the ground after Drwal gets a takedown and shows Serati’s limited game off his back. Ground and Pound stoppage a few minutes into the first round.

Nate Mohr vs Denis Siver
Prediction- Mohr by third round knockout
Both of these guys seem to be on the wrong side of the highlight reels. Both guys have limited ground games, but I think Mohr’s advantage in wrestling will allow him to exploit Siver’s and eventually stop him with punches from side mount after a back and forth fight.

Thomas Egan vs John Hathaway
Prediction- Hathaway by 2nd round knockout