UFC 100 Predictions

The big one is finally here, UFC 100 takes place this weekend and I couldn’t be more excited. The main three fights are al pick-em fights and two of those fights are between the best fighters the UFC has in those weight divisions. The main event is the rematch between Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar. When these two did battle last year at UFC 81, no one expected them to be fighting a rematch in the main event of UFC 100 for the undisputed UFC Heavyweight title.Both men have had a lot to say about their first fight and the rematch promises to be explosive.
The co main event in my opinion should be the main event. Welterweight Champion Georges St Pierre defends his crown against the undisputed top challenger Thiago Alves. St Pierre has looked unbeatable again since recapturing the title from Serra at UFC 83. Alves too has looked near unbeatable with three huge wins last year over Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan. This is the biggest fight in MMA Welterweight history.
Also on the card is the battle of TUF9 coaches Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson. These two have built a harmless little feud with Henderson wanting to shut Bispings mouth and Bisping wanting to shut Hendersons mouth for saying he wanted to shut Bispings mouth. The winner of this fight will probably earn themselves a shot at Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title. Also we have the UFC debut of Japanese stand-out Yoshiro Akiyama against in form Alan Belcher and Jon Fitch taking on the man who knocked out his team-mate Josh Koscheck in Paul Thiago.
The preliminaries could make up a Fight Night main card themselves. Stephan Bonnar takes on UFC Hall of Famer Mark Coleman. TUF6 winner Mac Danzig looks to snap a two fight losing streak against contender Jim Miller. Light Heavyweight prospect Jon Jones looks to do everyone a favour and eliminate Jake O’Brien from the UFC and TUF7 runner-up CB Dollaway takes on TUF8 veteran Tom Lawlor.

Main Card
Frank Mir vs Brock Lesnar
(UFC Heavyweight Championship)
Prediction- Lesnar by 2nd round knockout
This fight really is 50-50, but I figured I’d have to pick Lesnar at some stage so I thought I’d start now. Who knows, maybe he’s just my Zab Judah in MMA in that every fight he has, whoever I pick, loses (which is the deciding factor in this pick as I want Lesnar to lose). I think Mir’s ‘improved striking’ is a myth that was created by how good he looked against the shot/staph riddled Nogueira that he fought at UFC 92 and I don’t think he’s sorted his cardio out. If Lesnar gets past the first round, especially with the damage Lesnar will be doing, I think Mir will gas and Lesnar will pound him out. On the other hand, if Mir gets Lesnar in his guard, has Lesnar’s less then two years of jiu jitsu training prepared him for the level of game Mir has? If Mir gets on top at all this fight he’ll end it. I think Lesnar just has to ride out Mir’s conditioning and then his physical abilities will win him the fight.

Thiago Alves vs Georges St Pierre
Prediction- St Pierre by 4th round stoppage
This is another 50-50 fight, but I think GSP will be able to get Alves on his back and work him over. The big factor in this fight could be how the weight cut will affect Alves in rounds three and four and five. Alves striking is unreal; he’s by far the best striker at the top of the Welterweight division. GSP’s chin will make things interesting, but I think his striking is good enough to be able to hang with Alves and avoid the big shots. Alves’ effectiveness from his back and ability to get back up will be a big key because you know GSP is going to get him down at some stage. I’ll be surprised if there’s a submission in this fight unless GSP gets Alves’ back after he gasses, but I think there’s more of a chance of a finish then a decision here. Alves should do well early and I wouldn’t be that surprised if he KO’d GSP in the first two rounds, but I think as the fight wears on GSP’s takedowns will become more frequent and his top game will take it’s toll on Alves and he’ll stop him late.

Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
Basically I think Henderson is the better striker and the better wrestler. Bisping doesn’t have the power or the submission game to finish Henderson, but he might have the conditioning to outwork him. I think Henderson can win this fight by knockout, but I think he’ll outwrestle Bisping and score repeated takedowns during this fight. I don’t think Bisping is dangerous enough to win this fight. His striking is good, but it seems to only excel against average strikers or average wrestlers and his submissions are good but they’re not on the level of a Nogueira which is needed to catch Henderson. It’ll be vintage ‘Decision Dan’ in that he’ll use his greco takedowns and do minimal damage from on top for the full three rounds and frustrate the shit out of Bisping in winning a unanimous decision.

Yoshiro Akiyama vs Alan Belcher
Prediction- Belcher by 1st round knockout
I think Akiyama will be forced to stand with Belcher and while his stand-up is good, it’s not on Belchers level. Akiyama has several knockout wins, but mostly against grapplers. Belcher seems to be getting better and better and I think he’s going to open a few peoples eyes in this fight and score a big knockout win.

Jon Fitch vs Paulo Thiago
Prediction- Fitch on points
Fitch’s wrestling will be the answer in this fight. Thiago will need to get the fight to the ground and he won’t be able to outwrestle Fitch. Even though he KO’d Koscheck, Thiago’s hands aren’t that good and Fitch will outstrike him without doing any real signficant damage.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Mark Coleman
Prediction- Bonnar on points
I’ve no doubt that Bonnar will be too good for Coleman, but I can’t see how he’ll finish him. Coleman will probably prove a frustrating opponent with his takedowns, but Bonnar’s bottom game is dangerous and I’m sure he’s trained escapes and takedown defence so he’ll likely keep it standing. I’m not sold on Bonnar’s punching power though and I think Coleman will last the distance as long as he gasses after three minutes instead of thirty seconds.

Mac Danzig vs Jim Miller
Prediction- Miller on points
Danzig keeps getting thrown to the wolves and I think this will mark three losses in a row for him. Miller is an exceptional grappler and Danzig doesn’t have the wrestling to keep this standing where he wants it or the stand-up game to really punish Miller. Bad style matchup for Mac and hopefully they give him someone a touch easier next time.

Jon Jones vs Jake O’Brien
Prediction- Jones by 1st round knockout
As Jones has stated ‘O’brien has been shooting that same double leg takedown for years’ and I don’t think it helps him one bit in this fight. Jones is always improving and will be too athletic, well rounded and intelligent to get sucked into O’Briens game. Jones by spectacular first round knockout.

Dong Hyun Kim vs TJ Grant
Prediction- Kim on points

CB Dollaway vs Tom Lawlor
Prediction- Dollaway by 2nd round knockout

Matt Grice vs Shannpn Gurgerty
Prediction- Grice on points

TUF9 Finale

The Ultimate Fighter 9 “US vs UK” concludes tomorrow with the usual final card featuring the final bouts as part of the main card. There was a lot of hype around this season being the best yet, I don’t quite agree with it to be honest. While some of the tension between the two teams was good, the rivalry with the coaches wasn’t up there with some of the other seasons and the antics in the house were pretty tame I thought. I was sort of waiting for someone big to happen in the house for the entire show and nothing happened.

The finals pit DeMarques Johnson (US) against James Wilkes (UK) in the Welterweight division and in the Lightweight division Andre Winner and Ross Pearson of team UK do battle. I think Johnson will have too much experience for Wilks, who seems a little green at this stage. As much as I didn’t like Johnson (or anyone from team US), he probably had the most well rounded game in the house and Wilks showed some weaknesses in his game in his two fights against Lester. The all UK Lightweight final should be a cracker and I’m really not sure who to pick. I’m going with Winner to win on points in what could be fight of the night (if the main event doesn’t live up to expectations).

The main card has some interesting non-TUF fights with a pivotal battle in the lightweight division between Diego Sanchez and Clay Guida headlining the card. This fight provides us with the clear next contender behind Florian and Penn in my opinion. Maybe Gray Maynard is up there, but I think with Sanchez’s success at welterweight and Guida’s resume as well as the performance he showed in losing to Huerta that the winner of this fight should get the next crack. I think Sanchez has the better finishing skills out of the two, but Guida’s wrestling, pace and cardio could make the fight very interesting. Sanchez has dealt with fighters like Guida before and seeing how he doesn’t have to deal with the strength of a 170lber in this fight, I think he won’t be as troubled by the wrestling skills of Guida. Plus Sanchez is known to set a pretty high pace himself and also has great cardio. The x-factor here is the weight cut for Sanchez, if it effects him Guida will just outwork him. I think it won’t, especially since this is the second time he’s cut this far now and I think Sanchez will prevail by unanimous decision or late stoppage.

The other interesting fight on the card sees the two men who most recently lost to Guida and Sanchez doing battle. Nate Diaz fights Joe Stevenson in a battle of former TUF champions and one both men can’t really afford to lose. Diaz had a strong run of victories post TUF but stumbled in his chance to join the elite against Clay Guida at UFC 94. Stevenson struggled a bit post TUF before winning enough straight fights to earn himself a shot at BJ Penn’s title. Penn made light work of Stevenson which has started a run of bad results for ‘Daddy’ as he is going into this fight with back to back losses against Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Both guys have great grappling skills, but Diaz’s stand-up is much crisper and provided Stevenson can’t take him down at will I think Diaz will batter him on their feet and maybe even score a stoppage late in the fight.

Main Event showing UFC 100 a day late!

Showing UFC 100 on tape delay: thats-a-paddlin'

 Australian PPV company Main Event have decided to show the highly anticipated UFC 100 card on tape delay rather the day after (a Monday!) rather then show it live. Instead they will show the boxing bout between Vic Darchinyan and Joseph Agbeko. Now this is a huge step in the right direction from when they showed A REPLAY of Andre Rieu last year instead of showing Randy Couture vs Brock Lesnar live, but this habbit of showing the biggest cards of the year on tape delay is getting annoying. Now I’m glad we’re getting Darchinyan’s fight live, but really we shouldn’t even have to pay for that considering no one else anywhere in the world will have to. I really hope One HD can take some of Main Events strange hold on boxing away as it develops so that they can put stuff that is actually PPV worthy on WHEN IT’S MEANT TO BE ON SO PEOPLE LIKE ME DON’T HAVE TO TAKE A DAY OFF WORK TO NOT HAVE THE RESULTS SPOILT BY PEOPLE. I stopped taking chances with MMA results when someone spoilt Rampage’s first round KO over Liddell for me so I won’t even get to watch Darchinyan live. I’ll likely do nothing on the Sunday other then hide from the rest of the world with my phone off so no one spoils anything and then take a day off work just so I can have the enjoyment of watching arguably the biggest MMA card ever without knowing the results. I’d just like to take this moment to tell the guy in charge of this decision to go take a shit in your hat and pull it over your ears. Thanks a lot!

UFC 100: Lesnar vs Mir II announced

Over the last few days the UFC has officially announced the UFC 100 card that’s had everyone talking and it’s as good as people are expecting. While there’s one or two fights that are yet to be confirmed, every fight on the main card has major implications for the division that it’s in and some of the preliminaries would easily be main card fights on a different card. The main two fights on the card see probably the two most anticipated championship fights of the year in the UFC. The card, ‘UFC 100: Lesnar vs Mir 2′ takes place July 11th in Las Vegas.

Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will make the first defence of the title he took from Randy Couture last November against UFC interim champion Frank Mir. The fight is a rematch of Lesnar’s UFC debut at UFC 81 last year in which Lesnar started fast and landed some hard shots to Mir’s face on the ground before being caught in a kneebar from the former UFC champion. Mir was then locked in to fight interim champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira while Randy Couture was fighting the UFC in court with the two coaching on the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Then with Couture’s comeback and the two coaches already set to do battle, Lesnar off the back of his domination over Heath Herring got first crack at Couture and took the title. Mir then dramatically became the first man to finish Nogueira with a 2nd round knockout leading to the mega fight. (There is that man from Russia named Fedor Emelianenko who would probably beat both guys on the same night, but I won’t mention him as this is a UFC post and it wouldn’t be appropriate now would it?)

The co main event is arguably the most anticipated fight of the year now that St Pierre vs Penn is out of the way. Thiago Alves last year ran through Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck to make himself the clearest contender for St Pierre’s title that he won back from Matt Serra last April. St Pierre has defended the championship twice now with a decision win over Jon Fitch and a 4th round TKO of BJ Penn. It’s always interesting when you get a contender who has proven himself to be head and shoulders above the rest of the division up against an outstanding champion. You’ve had fights like Hughes-Trigg II, Hughes-St Pierre II, Couture vs Liddell (any fight) and if you want to talk PRIDE there’s Nogueira vs Fedor, Fedor vs Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva vs Rampage II. In all of those fights the contender for the belt had dominated all of the other contenders in the past to make themselves the clearest possible challenger for the title and all of those fights were memorable.

Also on the main card you have TUF 9 coaches Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson doing battle for what will probably be a shot at UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Then there’s another Middleweight matchup between two of the top contenders in the division with new signing Yoshihiro Akiyama who has wins over the likes of Denis Kang and Melvin Manhoef taking on Alan Belcher. The main card is likely to be filled out with the Paulo Thiago-Jon Fitch Welterweight scrap but there’s also UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman (I’m sorry, everytime I go to write his name I think of the way Mauro Rinallo used to always announce him as ‘Mark The Hammer Coleman’ and it just ends up typing itself) fighting Stephan Bonnar and Jim Miller vs Mac Danzig that could take the last spot on the main card. Check the MMA schedule link at the top of the page for the full card.

Post UFC 93 Thoughts

Dan Henderson SD Rich Franklin
I thought Henderson won and I’m glad he did. The winner was always going to move down to Middleweight to fight Michael Bisping and the winner of that was likely going to get a crack at Anderson Silva at the end of the year or early next year. Franklin’s been spanked by Silva twice in extremely one sided bouts while Henderson gave a good account for himself until he pulled guard in his challenge for Silva’s belt. A rematch with Henderson on the back of him beating Bisping (assuming he wins) and Franklin would be much for interesting then watching Franklin’s nose get rearranged by the Spider again.
On the judging, 30-27 for Franklin was retarded. The first two rounds were kind of close, but Franklin definately didn’t win both of them. I thought the 2nd round could have gone either way but the first was definately Henderson’s with the damage he did at the start of the round. Franklin definately won the 3rd but throughout the fight I thought Henderson did better work when he was in a better position then Franklin did when he had the fight where he wanted it. Franklin seemed pissed after the fight (we didn’t get an interview with him because the PPV had no time left) but you would be having not lost a decision before. Losing by close decision sucks and you don’t know how much it sucks until it happens to you. ‘Decision Dan’ strikes again with his 8th split decision won of his career.

Mauricio Shogun KO3 Mark Coleman
I have to say I was extremely impressed with Colemans effort and extremely dissappointed in Shogun. First of all on Coleman, as much as I like to rip on the guy because of his old school approach to a fast evolving sport, I’ll always be a fan of his. He showed an iron chin and an almost unmatched determination in there and it’s great that he got a chance to fight on a big show like this and put in a performance like that. His stamina still sucks (which is part of the reason why I like watching him fight as sick as it does sound) and it’ll always restrict him from beating anyone any good but he continued to fight and it wasn’t over until it was over and you always have to respect that no matter how old school his fighting approach is. That’s not to say I thought it was a great fight because it wasn’t but it would have been a hell of a lot worse had Coleman just lay down in the first round when he got tired.
I really thought the stoppage was bullshit. He was on all fours and he was hurt, but it isn’t boxing; Shogun has to finish him. Let Shogun follow-up and stop it if Coleman doesn’t defend himself from there. Coleman probably would have taken Shogun down again from that position which brings me to Shogun. What the fuck happened to the Shogun who dominated the 2005 Grand Prix? Anyone who says he was always this bad is a fucking moron. The Shogun of 2005 had stamina to fight for 20 minutes at full speed (see his fight with Little Nogueira) and a ground game as good as any Light Heavyweight (again see his fight with Little Nogueira as well as his fights with Randleman, Arona and Overeem).
Shogun’s weak area has always been his boxing and it showed again tonight even though he finished the fight with punches. His strengths have always been his top game and the clinch. After the card it was announced that Shogun will meet Chuck Liddell in the main event at UFC 97. Shogun is going to have to make some serious improvements in his form if he wants to last a round with Liddell. He’s not going to get the fight to the ground and, like Wanderlei Silva, he’ll have a hard time getting a clinch with Liddell where he can deliver his knees. I really hope Shogun can get his old form back because Shogun vs Liddell in 2006 was an MMA fans wet dream.

Alan Belcher Sub2 Denis Kang
What can be said about Denis Kang that hasn’t been said before? The guy has a seriously bad habbit of losing fights he’s dominating by giving his opponents submissions. He’s one of those top grapplers like Jeremy Horn who seem to get submitted a lot by guys they should rape on the ground. Credit to Belcher for finishing with the choke though even if he was getting dominated by a BJJ fighter in his preferred Muay Thai style.

Rampage vs Jardine
It was announced during the broadcast that Rampage will indeed headline the UFC 96 card, but against Keith Jardine and not Rashad Evans. I was skeptical that the title fight would come off so close to the last one, but they’ve come up with a decent main event which tops off the card nicely. Gabriel Gonzaga vs Shane Carwin was never going to sell and Rampage is one of the UFC’s biggest stars. I won’t be looking forward to it as much as I’m looking forward to UFC 94, but it’s a lot better then UFC 95.

Angry Match Maker
New Feature. It might not last but what the hell. After every UFC I’m going to do a list of matchups that could be made based off the results.

Henderson vs Bisping- Makes sense if both guys are coaching on TUF9.
Franklin vs Luiz Cane- A good way for Franklin to bounce back from a loss and a good chance for Cane to prove he belongs in the big time.
Shogun vs Liddell- Already made, it makes sense as both guys were scheduled to fight last year but were both injured. With Liddell coming off a loss a win over Shogun would be a good bounce back for him.
Coleman vs Wanderlei Silva- No one wants to see a repeat of Coleman-Cro Cop or Coleman-Fedor II. He has to fight a 205lber who can be taken down easily and who is still marketable. Wanderlei Silva would be this fighter. There’s bad blood there with the Hammer House vs Chute Boxe rivalry and both guys need a win. Put it on the UFC 97 undercard and then match the winners (hopefully Liddell vs Wanderlei) in a main event later in the year or as a feature attraction on the year end card.
Belcher vs Palhares- Both of these guys are up and comers in the UFC and it’d be a good way to see which one of them belongs in the upper end of the 185lb division.
Lytle vs Davis II- Watch the first fight, these guys could fight three times every year and I wouldn’t care.

Henderson edges Franklin, Shogun KOs Coleman

Former PRIDE 183lb and 205lb Champion Dan Henderson won a narrow split decision victory over former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin. The fight took place earlier today (Sydney time) at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland. Henderson started fast, landing one of his feared overhand rights that backed Franklin into the cage in the early moments of the fight. Using his Olympic Greco Roman skills, Henderson scored a takedown and started to land punches from inside Franklins guard. Franklin eventually worked his way back to his feet where he had some success using left body kicks on Henderson, however Henderson’s early work was enough to take the round on my card.

Round two started the same as round three ended, with Franklin controlling the fight standing up but doing little damage to the former two-time Olympian. Midway through the round Henderson again got a grip on Franklin and tripped him to the mat where he worked from inside the former UFC champions guard. Franklin attempted a triangle but Henderson was playing it safe and ended the round after having been on top for the last half of the 2nd frame. With a 20-18 lead on my card, Henderson again scored a takedown early in the 3rd, but Franklin managed to escape and landed several punches to Henderson while he was turtled up. They worked their way back to their feet where Franklin again got the better of a tiring Henderson. With 40 seconds remaining, Henderson pawed with his left hand and poked Franklin in the eye. Franklin was given time to recover and the fight finished on the feet with Franklin taking the only real clear round of the fight.

The judges scored the bout 29-28 Henderson, 30-27 Franklin and 29-28 for Henderson giving him the split decision victory. I scored the bout 29-28 for Henderson with him winning the first two rounds and Franklin winning the third. With the win, Henderson likely earns himself a spot coaching the USA team on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter which will pit a team from the USA and a team from the UK. His rival coach will be British MMA star Michael Bisping and the two will likely meet later in the year. The winner of that fight will probably be condsidered the number one contender for Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title.

In the co feature of the card, PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua made a successful return to the Octagon by gaining revenge for the only loss of his PRIDE career against UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman. Rua suffered a broken arm as a result of a takedown during the fight at PRIDE 31: Unbreakable 49 seconds into the fight. Despite Coleman scoring numerous takedowns during the fight, Shogun was the fighter doing the damage in round one with vicious leg kicks and right hands to the face. Coleman looked to be tired at the end of the first round but fought valiantly in the second round again taking Shogun down a few times. Each time Shogun was able to escape and land with clean shots as Coleman couldn’t hold his hands above his waist. With both guys exhaused and the fight becoming painful to watch, Coleman took Shogun down again in the third round and looked like causing a massive upset. Shogun worked his way to his feet and landed what was ruled as an illegal knee to the head while Coleman was on his knees (replays showed the knee clearly landing to the body). With both guys again standing up, Shogun unleashed a flurry of punches that put Coleman down again and the referee stopped the fight. With the win, Shogun will meet Chuck Liddell at UFC 97.

In other action former PRIDE contender Denis Kang completely dominated Alan Belcher during the first round only to get caught in a deep guillotine choke midway through the 2nd round. With the submission, Belcher earned submission of the night honours. Rousimar Palhares grinded out a unanimous decision victory over a surprisingly game Jeremy Horn. Despite taking a beating in the first round, Horn was able to get on top in the 2nd and even had the Jiu Jitsu expert mounted for a period, however Palhares better top game and wrestling earned him the shutout decision win. In what won fight of the night, Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle went to war, trading hands and shins for the full three minutes of the fight. The fight was very close with neither fighter wanting to take it to the ground, but Davis sealed the decision win with a dominant round three. Both guys expressed interest in a rematch later in the year.

Preliminary Results
John Hathaway d. Thomas Egan by TKO at 4:36 of Round one (elbows)
Martin Kampmann d. Alexandre Barros by TKO at 3:07 of Round two (punches from back mount)
Eric Scaher d. Antonio Mendes by TKO at 3:34 of Round one (punches from mount)
Thomas Drwal d. Ivan Serati by TKO at 2:02 of Round one (ground and pound)
Dennis Siver d. Nate Mohr by KO at 3:47 of Round three (spinning back kick)