UFC 101 Predictions/Site Update

Apologies for the lack of, well, anything this month so far. I’ve been extremely busy and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I’ll still be covering the big events as much as possible and I’ll do a recap of anything recent in those.

Now, Fedor…. I think it could have been a lot worse (Fedor signed with Strikeforce, not the UFC) but I’d definately have preferred him in the UFC. Overeem has the potential to be a challenge although I think he gets submitted once it goes to the ground. Rogers probably has the best chance but I think he’ll also be taken out once it hits the ground and Werdum will probably go the distance while in survival mode with Fedor not risking going to the ground with him. Some Indian fighter won the K-1 qualifier and will be making up the numbers at the Final 16. Manhoef and Lazceno will take part in this weekends qualifier. That’s about it off the top of my head.

UFC 101 now and it’s a ripper of a card with two quality lead fights and three good fights supporting it. I think Florian has a real chance in this fight. His thai boxing skills are something Penn hasn’t come across and his BJJ is also good although I think Florian will want to avoid fighting from his back. If this fight goes past the 2nd round I think Florian can pull it out, but I think Penn will win the fight mainly through heavy right hands on the feet and ground and pound once he gets on top. Florian will be game but I think Penn stops him in the 2nd or 3rd from either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.

Silva-Griffin is also an interesting fight. Griffin is a big guy with an excellent workrate and heavy kicks. His boxing sucks as he arm punches and slaps a lot and doesn’t do much damage and contrary to popular belief his chin isn’t good although he’s extremely durable to constant punishment as long as the guy isn’t a world class striker. Silva unfortunately is and he’s also extremely fast. I think this will be a blowout with Silva doing a number on Griffin in the first two minutes. It’ll be really interesting if the fight goes past the first round how Silva handles someone like Griffin pushing the pace on him.

Full picks: Penn by 3rd round sub
Silva by 1st round KO
Grove on points
Sadollah by 2nd round KO
Pellegrino on points
Leites by 1st round sub
Riley on points
McCrory on points
Sotiropolous by 2nd round sub
Riddle on points
Lennox by 1st round KO

UFC 101: Penn vs Florian, Griffin vs Silva

Most MMA fans knew anyway, but the two main fights for UFC 101 in Philadelphia on August 8th were going to be the Lightweight Championship match between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian as well as an intriguing Light Heavyweight clash between former champion Forrest Griffin and Thiago Silva. The UFC officially announced the signing of both fights, and it was only then did it come as a surprise that it wouldn’t be Thiago Silva that Griffin would face, but instead Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva would again venture up to the 205lb ranks to this time take on one of the top fighters.

Forrest Griffin vs Anderson Silva is one hell of a matchup. The two things that Griffin bring are his size and his workrate and I’m curious to see how Anderson deals with it. The way I think he’ll deal with it is by knocking Griffin out in the first round of the fight, but what if he doesn’t? I’m expecting Silva to rise to the occasion as he has done in the past when presented with a serious challenge (and no, Patrick Cote and Thales Leites weren’t serious challenges for Silva) like when he fought Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson. The fact remains that Griffin is a big dude with good skills and his cardio is probably second to none, and should be not be slaughtered in the opening moments of this fight he could smother Silva with his workrate as he’s done to opponents before.

As for the title clash, I just hope Penn is in shape because if he isn’t he’s going to be in for a rude awakening. I think one of two things are going to happen in this fight. Either Penn has not mentally recovered from the loss to St Pierre and will train poorly as he’s done in the past and take a beating from Florian or he’ll be extra motivated for this fight in which case I see him winning but by late stoppage or submission after a tough fight with Florian. I really hope he trains hard for this one because him and Florian will be a dynamic matchup between two well rounded fighters which could end up being the war that Penn had with Pulver in their first fight.

One other note, it appears that Keith Jardine will instead face Thiago Silva, but at UFC 102 later in August which is likely to be headlined by Nogueira vs Couture.

Amir Sadollah back at UFC 101

Yeah I know, I normally only write big news, but I’m trying to expand the site so I’m going to try and make daily contributions with whatever is happening in MMA, Boxing or K-1.
TUF 7 champion Amir Sadollah makes it take three at UFC 101 after pulling out of UFC 91 and then UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens both with injuries. His opponent with be undefeated WEC veteran Johnny Hendricks and the fight could likely end up on the televised portion of UFC 101 which features a main event of BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian for the UFC lightweight title. Hendricks has solid wrestling credentials as he was a runner-up at the 2007 NCAA division one National Championships (to put that in perspective, guys like Brock Lesnar and Mark Coleman were NCAA National Champions so this guy can obviously wrestle). This fight could be real interesting as Sadollah has very dangerous submissions and striking but his wrestling isn’t all there and with his year long lay off, Hendricks might be able to push the pace on him a bit more then he’ll like.
Another fight added to UFC 101 is Tamdan McCrory vs John Howard. McCrory is coming of a win over Ryan Madigan at UFC 96 where he was up against a complete novice in terms of ground fighting. John Howard should provide a sterner test. The vive year veteran brings a 11-4 record with a 1-0 record in the UFC having edged out Chris Wilson in January by split decision. The two will likely fight on the untelevised portion of the card. Also, Chris Leben is rumoured to be on the Couture-Nogueira undercard at UFC 102 against Jake Rosholt. Leben was serving a suspension for a failed drug test after his loss to Michael Bisping at the UFC 89 main event. Rosholt seems to be a bit of a soft touch for Leben as he has only six pro fights, losing his only UFC fight to Dan Miller in 67 seconds by submission.

Post UFC 94 Thoughts

Georges St Pierre TKO4 BJ Penn
There’s a fair bit to talk about with this fight. Number one is the greasing accusations against St Pierre. BJ Penn’s camp has put in a formal complaint about St Pierre (I’m just going to refer to him as GSP from now on to save time) using vaseline on his back so he’d be harder to control and would be able to slip out of guard easier. The CSAC went off at one of GSP’s cornermen about rubbing vaseline on the back of his neck. From the video of this, it’s clear that GSP’s corner did this by accident and it’s also clear that it was a minimal amount of vaseline. Everyone needs to relax about this and not let it spoil what was a great moment in MMA. GSP was the better fighter and anyone trying to bring up the grease thing against him is either a massive BJ Penn fan who can’t handle him losing or a massive GSP hater who wants to use anything against him they can. A bit of vaseline (that was wiped off by the commission guys after it was put on his back) isn’t going to change the result of a one sided TKO to a win for Penn. People are making out that GSP won because of the grease and not because he was the better fighter.
On GSP’s performance, wow! His wrestling seems to be on another level from everyone else’s in MMA right now. His guard passing seems to get better with every fight and his boxing is also very good. It’s going to take something special to defeat GSP anytime soon. GSP made Penn fight his fight when he was fresh and then when he tired he took Penn to the ground where he was meant to have the advantage and started beating him there. I honestly think GSP is the top pound for pound fighter in the sport right now. People still hold the Matt Serra loss over him but at least he avenged it. He’s beaten every man he’s ever faced and he’s been facing top fighters since his 4th pro fight! While I think Anderson Silva would beat GSP if he moved up to challenge the Middleweight king, I’m talking pound for pound here and I think, especially with his recent form, GSP has overtaken Silva with this win.
Despite how good it was watching GSP perform like that I do feel for BJ Penn and I think it may be the end of him more mentally then physically. He’s always given off the impression that believed he could beat any man out there regardless of size and now that GSP has beaten him he may just lose the motivation. Penn probably would have beaten most of the 170lbers out there and I’d back him over a few of the middleweight in the UFC if he fought them, but against the bigger fighters he’ll always fail against the top guys. Still, he’s one tough son of a bitch and anyone ripping on him for not answering the 5th round is a fucking moron. No other man at 170lbs or below would have taken that sort of punishment for as long as Penn did, the fact that he lasted until the end of the 4th round showed that Penn is as tough as they come.

Undercards
Machida was impressive but I still have question marks over how he will perform against a good boxer. Right now I’d pick both Rampage and Rashad Evans over Machida because I think they would keep the fight standing and catch Machida as he tried to ‘run’ after he ‘hits.’ The guys he’s been beating haven’t been good crisp stand-up fighters and I think Machida will be exploited for his unorthodox ways when he fights a good MMA boxer.
Jon Jones was impressive and he’ll serve to remind me not to pick against a guy on the main card if I haven’t seen him before. I didn’t know about his wrestling credentials and I should have done my homework on him before ruling him out. Bonnar fought well for a guy who hasn’t fought for 18 months, hopefully he’s back in the cage sooner rather then later. Parisyan falls under the same category in that he looked like shit because he hasn’t been fighting much, he needs to get back in the cage ASAP. Guida moved into the lightweight elite with his win and should Penn vacate his belt, Guida could be one of the guys in contention for the fight. Jon Fitch also bounced back from his loss to GSP at UFC 87 with a decision win over Akihiro Gono.

Angry Match Maker

Georges St Pierre vs Thiago Alves/BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian
Surely I need not explain these choices.

Karo Parisyan vs Jon Fitch
Both guys were coming off losses heading into last weekends card and both bounced back with decision victories. Both guys were considered the top contenders this time last year before Parisyan was knocked out by Thiago Alves while Fitch got his shot against GSP and was beaten up for five rounds. This fight definately would help fill up any main card on an upcoming UFC.

Clay Guida vs Jim Miller/Gray Maynard
Miller and Maynard are scheduled to fight at UFC 96 and the winner of that fight joins Guida in the second tier UFC lightweights behind Penn, Florian and Sherk. A fight between the winner of that fight and Guida could determine the next number one contender and, like Parisyan-Fitch, would be a solid addition to the main card of any card.

Jon Jones vs Matt Hammill
This fight would really show us how good Jones’ wrestling is because thats the only place Hammill is going to test anyone anytime soon. While it might not have PPV main card appeal, it’d be an interesting fight on the main card of a fight night card or as a preliminary or swing bout.

St Pierre batters Penn at UFC 94

Georges St Pierre defended his UFC Welterweight Championship on Sunday with a 4th round TKO win over BJ Penn after Penn didn’t answer the bell for the 5th and final round. The win was the second successful defence of th title for St Pierre, who took it from Matt Serra at UFC 83 last year with a 2nd round TKO win. The win sets up a fight between St Pierre and number one contender Thiago Alves who is coming off victories over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last two outings. The loss also likely sets up a fight between BJ Penn, who holds the UFC Lightweight title, and number one Lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

The fighters clinched up quickly after the opening round began and St Pierre tried for the entire round to take Penn down but with no success. The fighters seperated a few times with Penn landing a hard right hand on one occassion and St Pierre landing a solid right of his own on another. The round proved to be the tactical battle many anticipated and St Pierre probably won due to his aggression. Round two was a completely different story though. St Pierre again shot in for a single leg takedown and this time managed to get Penn on his back. Working from inside Penn’s rubber guard and butterfly guard, St Pierre worked Penn over with elbows and punches while looking to pass guard. The times he managed to get to side control, Penn used freakish escapes to get back to guard but that was all he was able to do as St Pierre won the second round big.

Penn looked like the minutes rest between the second and third round did him not good as he appeared sluggish at the start of the third round. St Pierre landed solid jabs and a devastating leg kick with little attempt at defence from the former Welterweight Champion before St Pierre again took Penn to the ground. Despite being able to pass Penn’s guard more in this round, St Pierre’s offence wasn’t as dominating as in the previous round. Still, the round ended with St Pierre on top working Penn over with strikes. Penn looked even more tired at the start of the 4th and after eating several punches and leg kicks, he found himself in the familiar position of being on his back. St Pierre’s confidence was growing as he often attempted to mount Penn with little regard for the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champions guard. Midway through the round St Pierre landed his most damaging strikes of the round and after referee Herb Dean asked for Penn to fight back, ‘GSP’ turned it up. St Pierre proceeded to punish Penn with devastating punches from on top and was probably only a few seconds away from stopping Penn when the round ended.

A frustrated looking St Pierre walked back to his corner and a physically beaten Penn staggered back to his. In the corner the doctor and referee both examined Penn before JD Penn, BJ’s brother and manager told the doctor he wanted to stop the fight and awarded St Pierre with the TKO victory. The win brings St Pierre’s record to 18-2 with only five fights going the distance. Penn’s record drops to 13-5 and likely puts an end to Penn’s aspirations of winning titles in every weight division. With Thiago Alves likely next on the French-Canadian’s plate, a possible mega fight with Anderson Silva will have to wait. That fight would pit, in my opinion anyway, the two top pound for pound fighters in MMA against each other.

On the undercard, Lyoto Machida finally scored a knockout win in the UFC, knocking Thiago Silva out at the bell to end the first round. After clowning Silva in his usual way, Machida twice dropped the undefeated Brazilian and used clever inside trips on other occassions to put Silva on his back. One of these trips ended with Silva in guard and Machida delivered two bombs from a standing position that left Silva unconscious as the buzzer went to end the first round. Referee Yves Lavigne took a few seconds before calling the fight with Silva out on the mat. The win, according to Dana White, will earn Machida a shot at the title should Keith Jardine defeat Rampage Jackson at UFC 96. If Jardine is victorious, Machida will fight Evans for the belt instead.

Young star Jon Jones spoiled Stephan Bonnar’s return to the Octagon with a variety of spinning back kicks, highlight reel takedowns and a spinning elbow which nearly knocked Bonnar out in the 2nd round. Despite a late rally from the TUF1 runner-up, Jones held on for a unanimous decision victory. Karo Parisyan won in his comeback via split decision in an uneventful fight with fellow Judoka Dong Hyun Kim. Clay Guida took out another TUF winner, scoring a split decision over Nate Diaz in a fight that resembled a wrestling match. The times Diaz broke free and used his hands he looked a completely different fighter, even hurting Guida in the third round, but he spent too much time being outwrestled by Guida and was on the wrong end of a close decision.

Full Results
Georges St Pierre TKO4 (corner stoppage) BJ Penn
Lyoto Machida KO1 (punch) Thiago Silva
Jon Jones UD Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan SD Dong Hyun Kim
Clay Guida SD Nate Diaz
Jon Fitch UD Akihiro Gono
Thiago Tavares UD Manny Gamburyan
John Howard SD Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien SD Cristian Wellisch
Dan Cramer SD Matt Arroyo