UFC 110 Picks

UFC 110 in Australia takes place tomorrow and with the excitement of attending my first UFC event I’ve left it a bit late to post my picks up. With nothing better to do to kill the remaining 12 or so hours before the first preliminary fight, here’s my picks for tomorrows event:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Pick- Nogueira by 2nd round submission
While I agree that Velasquez is probably the safe pick in this fight, I don’t see any way he can win this fight inside the distance and against a finisher and a survivor like Nogueira that is dangerous. As good as Velasquez is, his game revolves around his wrestling and his explosiveness. His power has appeared overrated in his last three fights with an inability to finish Cheick Kongo despite the numerous advantageous positions and strikes he landed, a controversial stoppage against Ben Rothwell where he again landed numerous strikes that were taken as comfortably as one could take numerous strikes from a 230lb Mexican fighter and a one sided beatdown that went way longer then it should have against Denis Stojnic. Velasquez’s striking is technically below average and his lack of positional knowledge on the ground could get him into trouble against a Jiu Jitsu master like Nogueira.

Nogueira has two big advantages in this fight; boxing and jiu jitsu. Velasquez has proven he can take a punch from a top level MMA striker in the fight with Cheick Kongo, but if he chooses to keep the fight on the feet Nogueira will outbox him en route to a unanimous decision win. If Velasquez decides to use his wrestling to take the fight to the floor, he won’t gain the superior positioning against Nogueira that he has enjoyed in previous fights. I have no doubt that Nogueira could sweep Velasquez as he has swept plenty of good fighters in the past who have solid top games (most notably Fedor Emelianenko although it did him little good). While Nogueira’s pure jiu jitsu isn’t on the absolute elite level, his game is among the best for MMA as he works off his opponents strikes. I think Velasquez will probably be ahead on points early in the fight, but will likely fall victim to one of Nogueira’s chokes during a scramble sometime during the middle of the fight.

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping
Prediction- Silva by 1st round knockout
I honestly think that Bisping is scared of Silva. He’s trying to put on a brave front, but he seems to be reacting to whatever Wanderlei does. At the weigh in he seemed to be comfortable until he had to stare Wanderlei down. This is where Wanderlei is at his best, when he has an opponent who he can intimidate. Bisping’s only real shot in this fight is if Wanderlei’s weight cut severely effects him (he looks a hell of a lot better then he did when he fought Franklin so I assume he’s done it better this time) and then he’d have to employ a hit and run style and win on points. I think Wanderlei’s almost reckless style will overwhelm Bisping and he’ll be able to utilise his clinch game and overall just punish ‘The Count’ until he can’t take anymore. Silva by brutal, one sided knockout.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropolous
Prediction- Stevenson on points
I think the UFC are banking on a big win by George so they can use him as they used Bisping to build shows around him in Australia. I think they will be spoilt as Stevenson’s top game will be a bit too much at this stage of Georges career. If George can keep the fight standing, he’ll punish ‘Daddy’ as Stevenson’s stand-up has always been poor, but Stevenson is a solid wrestler and I believe he’ll win a unanimous, but highly competitive decision while utilising his top game.

Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
Prediction- Jardine on points
Bader is still completing his game and one of the areas he lacks is in the stand-up. Jardine is coming off a big knockout loss and back to back losses, but with the quality wrestlers he has to train with I think he’ll be well prepared for Bader’s takedowns. Bader on the other hand has no one to replicate Jardine’s unorthodox (thats a kind way of putting it) striking style and I think once Jardine gets into a rhythm, Bader will have a hard time getting anything going against him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh
Prediction- Cro Cop by 1st round knockout (hopefully a head kick)
Well most people were disappointed when Ben Rothwell pulled out on Friday, but I sort of wasn’t. Being the old school PRIDE fan that I am I’m sort of hoping to see Nogueira pull of a come from behind submission win, Wanderlei destroy someone and Cro Cop win by head kick knockout. He has a much better chance of knocking out Perosh then he did Rothwell (I’d have picked Rothwell in their fight). Perosh is a UFC veteran, having dropped fights to Jeff Monson and Critian Wellisch and he is a solid ground fighter having competed in Abu Dhabi, but he has been the victim of some knockouts in the past (one of them to James Te-Huna, who fights on the prelims) and I expect nothing different from him here.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Bonnar on points
Bonnar’s a handful when he’s on his game and I think he’ll be on his game tomorrow. It’s a pickem fight I feel and I think he’s due to pull one out.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Foster
Prediction- Foster on points
This fight will be fight of the night. These two live for the war and I expect nothing less. Foster is the less battle hardened of the two, but he brings more physical tools to the fight and thats where I think he wins it.

CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
Prediction- Dollaway on points
It’s been a long wait for the return of Goran, almost two years and I think Dollaway is too much too soon after such a long lay off. Goran looked good when he defeated Gouveia, but I think Dollaway will be hungry for a big win and will grind out a tough decision.

James Te-Huna vs Igor Pokrajac
Prediction- Igor by 1st round submission
I’m not holding out much hope for the Kiwi kickboxer. His ground game is pretty average and Igor is an experienced wrestler and once it hits the ground Te-Huna will be a fish out of water.

Why MMA will take over Boxing in Australia

How well would the boxing kangaroo fight off it's back?

With one night to go until the UFC makes it’s much anticipated Australian debut, everything in this country is set up for MMA to finally push boxing into the past and emerge as the future of combat sports down under. With the shoddy state of boxing in Australia at the moment, about the only thing that will stop MMA from moving past boxing would be an ugly incident either in the Octagon or in the crowd at next Sundays event. With even the head honcho’s involved with boxing not caring about it’s future, but rather trying to milk every last cent out of it right now, yet the people in charge of MMA trying to build the sport’s long term future it’s only inevitable that boxing be taken over by the new sport.  

With the small coverage MMA has received in Australia it has a cult following among the people who know about it. The guys who know lots about it get their friends into it, albeit at a much smaller level. The effect of this is like that of a trail of gun powderand the UFC 110 card in Sydney tomorrow is the spark that will explode MMA into a more mainstream sport in Australia. Tomorrow’s show sold out inside of a week with probably 90% of the tickets selling before they were open to the public meaning that there will likely be a second show sometime in the not to distant future (likely next year around the same time). With hardly any big boxing fights taking place in Australia (Australia’s main promoter Angelo Hyder is stuck in the late 90s thinking that big names that Australians want to see are Roy Jones jnr, Evander Holyfield and Mike Tyson, three men ten years past their best), an annual UFC event will only help the sport grow. The fact that One HD has scrapped it’s “Super Boxer” series and shows next to no current boxing, yet they will show UFC 110 live tomorrow for free is also a big sign of what is to come in the future. 

The bottom line is that Boxing in this country is a joke. The fact that Australians will go to the pub or fork out $50 to watch a Mundine pay per view to see him fight some fringe South American contender while some Rugby League star has a pub brawl with a guy who wouldn’t even be club level material anywhere else in the world yet they couldn’t tell you who the heavyweight champion of the world is is of major concern. Nothing is done to push boxing back into the spotlight or develop some of the upcoming fighters. Even the recent Australian version of ‘The Contender’ left out decent prospects like Jamie Pittman, a man who has the skills to be a threat on the world stage but lacks the exposure that a show like ‘The Contender’ would have given him to be able to build a following in this country. There are plenty of guys out there like Jamie Pittman who are talented boxers but just can’t build the following down here that they would have otherwise done if boxing was taken seriously. Sure Pittman is very well known to the boxing public, but do you really think the Captain of the Australian Olympic Boxing team would be struggling to get televised or even get decent fights in England or the USA? Yet guys like Sonny Bill Williams and Carl Webb get main support fights on what is probably the biggest stage in Australian boxing (the Mundine shows) and probably earn just as much!  

The production value of boxing shows is also a major problem with boxing in Australia. The fact that  MORON like Andy Raymond, who is a Rugby League commentator with no clue about anything boxing is the voice of the sport down here is nauseating. The ring announcers have no idea how to properly announce a show, and yes there is a proper and improper way of doing things. For one, you don’t announce the rules of the bout while the fighters are in the ring waiting to get it on (see the Green-Jones prelims for an example). You don’t announce a close decision in favour of ”the red corner” in the biggest domestic fight of the year (see Mundine-Geale decision) when no one pays any attention which corner they’re fighting out of. It’s painful watching a high profile boxing card in Australia because you can tell that the people in charge of running it have no idea what they’re doing. I rarely watch local Fox Sports boxing shows anymore because of how bad it is (that and the mismatches that they often have). You don’t need four or five ring girls dancing in the ring between rounds with dance music playing (you didn’t see this on say the Pacquiao-Cotto card for example did you?). You don’t need to show the Australian rankings after every fight and you definately don’t need to show random rounds out of insignificant fights from past local shows when you’ve got nothing else to do. One of the main strengths of the UFC is the production value. They do an amazing job of hyping up the fights with pre fight interviews, a highly energetic ring announcer and the right amount of tits and arse between rounds with the focus being more on the fighters which is what the people watching paid to see. 

Should the UFC 110 card deliver tomorrow, expect to see a rise in regional MMA shows and an even further drop in local pro-am boxing cards. With more and more people already turning to kickboxing or jiu jitsu, there’s bound to be an emergence of competitors willing to try their luck with 4oz gloves instead of the 12oz gloves and headgear that amateur boxers use. There are already a number of good fighters from Australia and New Zealand (two of them fight tomorrow night on the main card) and if some of them can increase their celebrity down here to a slightly mainstream audience, something that say a victory for George Sotiropolous over Joe Stevenson tomorrow night would do, it’s only going to help the MMA cause down under. Boxing has been on a slow decline in this country since the late 80′s when we had our last batch of Australian contenders who actually fought one another. Sure there’s been a slight resurgence with the likes of Anthony Mundine and Danny Green and Daniel Geale, but our best fighters (Vic Darchinyan and Michael Katsidis) both fight overseas and have a bigger following in the USA then they do down here. No longer are the days of TV ringside where contenders were brought up through the tough local circuit and had to earn their status when fighters like Hector Thompson, Tony Mundine and Paul Ferreri gave the world champions of the day, men who are among the greatest to have ever entered a boxing ring in their respective divisions, some of the toughest fights of their career. The state of boxing today is one of prospects not learning their craft through overprotection and mismatches who end up taking the massive step up in class that they aren’t ready for and when they lose those that were paying attention to them no longer do while the rest of Australia who aren’t as into boxing as someone like me is go on watching their Mundine cards and having a laugh when the two heavyweights start trading arm punches with their chin in the air. MMA has slowly been taking over in America, and although boxing is run pretty badly over there, it’s not nearly as bad as it is down here. All that is needed to start the MMA frenzy is for the biggest promotion in the world to bring one of its shows down here to get some mainstream attention.

UFC 99 Predictions

While this card lacks the huge main event of some of the more recent cards or the ones in the coming months, UFC 99 looks to be one of the more explosive cards in recent memory. The main event itself is a fight that should promise fireworks as both guys like to stand up and go for the knockout and should they hit the ground neither man is the type to gain a dominant position and hold it for a decision win. Former PRIDE 205lb champion Wanderlei Silva headlines his first UFC card since his return to the Octagon (Silva has previously headlined the UFC 25 card when he fought and lost to Tito Ortiz for the championship nine years ago) and he takes on former UFC 185lb champion Rich Franklin at a catchweight of 195lb. In addition to that fight, there is five others instead of the usual four and all five have the potential for fireworks. Cain Velasquez has his first true test as he takes on dangerous stand-up fighter Cheick Kongo. Mirko Cro Cop and Caol Uno make their returns to the UFC taking on Mustapha Al-Turk and Spencer Fisher respectively. An interesting welterweight fight between in form fighters Mike Swick and Ben Saunders could give us the next top contender at 170lbs and a grudge fight between veteran Marcus Davis and hot prospect Dan Hardy. If there’s a fight on this main card that you’re not interested in then there’s something wrong with you in my honest opinion. Sunday is one of those rare days that has an exciting UFC card on in the morning (by morning I mean 5am) and then a quality boxing match on at lunch time. I’m drooling at the thought of it……

Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
Prediction- Franklin on points
I’m barracking for Silva as he is one of my favourite all-time fighters to watch but taking that out of the equation, I think Franklin has the edge in this fight. While Silva is the one dropping down to the weight, I feel Franklin will be the bigger man in this fight as well as the more experienced at the weight which is a strange combination. Silva has never had to make a weight below 205 and you don’t know how much that is going to hurt him. Combine that with the brutal knockout loss Silva suffered in his last fight and you don’t know how much he has left. Franklin doesn’t have the punching power of the guys who have knocked him out like Rampage, Cro Cop or in my opinion even Henderson but the effects of being knocked out in the fashion Silva has been KO’d it may have softened his jaw up. I fully expect this to be a war and you definately can’t count out Silva especially with his effectiveness from the clinch which is the way Anderson Silva knocked Franklin out twice for the Middleweight title, but I feel Wanderlei has seen better days and I think Franklin will get the better of the three round battle but it won’t be all one way traffic.

Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
Prediction- Velasquez by 2nd round TKO
Kongo has the obvious advantage on the feet, but I don’t think his improved wrestling ability will help him in this fight and I think he’ll be fighting off his back for 80-90% of the fight. Velasquez’s wrestling is too strong for Kongo and I don’t think he’ll have much trouble getting the takedown and then doing damage from on top. Velasquez has awesome punching power from on top and even though Kongo has a solid chin, I think the constant punishment will take it’s toll and the referee will save Kongo in the 2nd round.

Ben Saunders vs Mike Swick
Prediction- Swick by 1st round KO
A bit of a bold prediction here, but I don’t think Saunders will handle the type of fight Swick brings early on. Swick is too explosive for a guy like Saunders who is wide open at times and easy to hit. I think the longer this fight goes, the more chance Saunders has but I think Swick will blitz him. His hand speed is incredible and takes many guys by surprise and I expect Saunders will go in the fashion we got used to seeing Swick destroy people. Too much too soon for Saunders, I don’t think this fight will last two minutes.

Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
Prediction- Davis by 2nd round submission
There’s a bit of hatred between the two in this fight and I think it’s going to work against Hardy in this fight. Davis’ ground game is really solid now where it used to be his achilles heel where Hardy’s ground game still has a question mark over it as he’s been submitted a few times in the past. Hardy’s strength is his boxing, which is also Davis’ strength. Davis has never been knocked out from standing up and he’s faced stronger boxers then Hardy before. I think this fight has the potential to be as one sided as Davis vs Kelly back in October where Kelly wasn’t ready for the type of fight Davis brings. That’s how I feel about this fight although I think Hardy will put up a much better fight. I think once it hits the ground though Davis will show the difference between the two fighters.

Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
Prediction- Fisher on points
This is an interesting fight. Fisher is one of those guys who gets dominated or scores dramatic stoppage wins and he does it with strikes or submissions, he’s not one dimensional at all. Uno hasn’t been stopped in a long time and the fact that he survived 15 minutes on the ground with Shinya Aoki leads me to believe that Fisher won’t submit him. I’m finding it hard to see Uno winning the fight though unless Fisher is off his game (which could happen after a long layoff like Fisher has had). Fisher’s wrestling is one of his weaker areas, but I think he has the edge in wrestling in this fight. Uno is well rounded, but against a good strong Lightweight like Fisher I don’t think his game is up to standard anymore. Fisher to score a close but unanimous decision.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Mustapha Al-Turk
Prediction- Cro  Cop by 1st round knockout
Please please please don’t let Mirko have slipped this much.I’m hoping at least one of the three past generation fighters can win on this card and it’ll be sad if Cro Cop’s game has declined this much that he can’t beat someone like Al-Turk. That’s not taking anything away from Mustapha, but four years ago this is the type of fighter Cro Cop feasted on and brutalised. I’ve got to back one of the three (the other two being Wanderlei and Uno) so hopefully Cro Cop lets me reminisce a little bit about the glory days of PRIDE FC. I’ll stop before I start talking about how Wanderlei makes soccer kicks look poetic.

Preliminaries
Justin Bucholz vs Terry Etim (Etim on points)
Dale Hartt vs Denis Siver (Siver on points)
Peter Sobotta vs Paul Taylor (Taylor by 2nd round TKO)
Rolando Delgado vs Paul Kelly (Kelly on points)
Denis Stronje vs Stefan Struve (Struve on points)
John Hathaway vs Rick Story (Story by 1st round TKO)