UFC 99 Predictions

While this card lacks the huge main event of some of the more recent cards or the ones in the coming months, UFC 99 looks to be one of the more explosive cards in recent memory. The main event itself is a fight that should promise fireworks as both guys like to stand up and go for the knockout and should they hit the ground neither man is the type to gain a dominant position and hold it for a decision win. Former PRIDE 205lb champion Wanderlei Silva headlines his first UFC card since his return to the Octagon (Silva has previously headlined the UFC 25 card when he fought and lost to Tito Ortiz for the championship nine years ago) and he takes on former UFC 185lb champion Rich Franklin at a catchweight of 195lb. In addition to that fight, there is five others instead of the usual four and all five have the potential for fireworks. Cain Velasquez has his first true test as he takes on dangerous stand-up fighter Cheick Kongo. Mirko Cro Cop and Caol Uno make their returns to the UFC taking on Mustapha Al-Turk and Spencer Fisher respectively. An interesting welterweight fight between in form fighters Mike Swick and Ben Saunders could give us the next top contender at 170lbs and a grudge fight between veteran Marcus Davis and hot prospect Dan Hardy. If there’s a fight on this main card that you’re not interested in then there’s something wrong with you in my honest opinion. Sunday is one of those rare days that has an exciting UFC card on in the morning (by morning I mean 5am) and then a quality boxing match on at lunch time. I’m drooling at the thought of it……

Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
Prediction- Franklin on points
I’m barracking for Silva as he is one of my favourite all-time fighters to watch but taking that out of the equation, I think Franklin has the edge in this fight. While Silva is the one dropping down to the weight, I feel Franklin will be the bigger man in this fight as well as the more experienced at the weight which is a strange combination. Silva has never had to make a weight below 205 and you don’t know how much that is going to hurt him. Combine that with the brutal knockout loss Silva suffered in his last fight and you don’t know how much he has left. Franklin doesn’t have the punching power of the guys who have knocked him out like Rampage, Cro Cop or in my opinion even Henderson but the effects of being knocked out in the fashion Silva has been KO’d it may have softened his jaw up. I fully expect this to be a war and you definately can’t count out Silva especially with his effectiveness from the clinch which is the way Anderson Silva knocked Franklin out twice for the Middleweight title, but I feel Wanderlei has seen better days and I think Franklin will get the better of the three round battle but it won’t be all one way traffic.

Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
Prediction- Velasquez by 2nd round TKO
Kongo has the obvious advantage on the feet, but I don’t think his improved wrestling ability will help him in this fight and I think he’ll be fighting off his back for 80-90% of the fight. Velasquez’s wrestling is too strong for Kongo and I don’t think he’ll have much trouble getting the takedown and then doing damage from on top. Velasquez has awesome punching power from on top and even though Kongo has a solid chin, I think the constant punishment will take it’s toll and the referee will save Kongo in the 2nd round.

Ben Saunders vs Mike Swick
Prediction- Swick by 1st round KO
A bit of a bold prediction here, but I don’t think Saunders will handle the type of fight Swick brings early on. Swick is too explosive for a guy like Saunders who is wide open at times and easy to hit. I think the longer this fight goes, the more chance Saunders has but I think Swick will blitz him. His hand speed is incredible and takes many guys by surprise and I expect Saunders will go in the fashion we got used to seeing Swick destroy people. Too much too soon for Saunders, I don’t think this fight will last two minutes.

Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
Prediction- Davis by 2nd round submission
There’s a bit of hatred between the two in this fight and I think it’s going to work against Hardy in this fight. Davis’ ground game is really solid now where it used to be his achilles heel where Hardy’s ground game still has a question mark over it as he’s been submitted a few times in the past. Hardy’s strength is his boxing, which is also Davis’ strength. Davis has never been knocked out from standing up and he’s faced stronger boxers then Hardy before. I think this fight has the potential to be as one sided as Davis vs Kelly back in October where Kelly wasn’t ready for the type of fight Davis brings. That’s how I feel about this fight although I think Hardy will put up a much better fight. I think once it hits the ground though Davis will show the difference between the two fighters.

Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
Prediction- Fisher on points
This is an interesting fight. Fisher is one of those guys who gets dominated or scores dramatic stoppage wins and he does it with strikes or submissions, he’s not one dimensional at all. Uno hasn’t been stopped in a long time and the fact that he survived 15 minutes on the ground with Shinya Aoki leads me to believe that Fisher won’t submit him. I’m finding it hard to see Uno winning the fight though unless Fisher is off his game (which could happen after a long layoff like Fisher has had). Fisher’s wrestling is one of his weaker areas, but I think he has the edge in wrestling in this fight. Uno is well rounded, but against a good strong Lightweight like Fisher I don’t think his game is up to standard anymore. Fisher to score a close but unanimous decision.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Mustapha Al-Turk
Prediction- Cro  Cop by 1st round knockout
Please please please don’t let Mirko have slipped this much.I’m hoping at least one of the three past generation fighters can win on this card and it’ll be sad if Cro Cop’s game has declined this much that he can’t beat someone like Al-Turk. That’s not taking anything away from Mustapha, but four years ago this is the type of fighter Cro Cop feasted on and brutalised. I’ve got to back one of the three (the other two being Wanderlei and Uno) so hopefully Cro Cop lets me reminisce a little bit about the glory days of PRIDE FC. I’ll stop before I start talking about how Wanderlei makes soccer kicks look poetic.

Preliminaries
Justin Bucholz vs Terry Etim (Etim on points)
Dale Hartt vs Denis Siver (Siver on points)
Peter Sobotta vs Paul Taylor (Taylor by 2nd round TKO)
Rolando Delgado vs Paul Kelly (Kelly on points)
Denis Stronje vs Stefan Struve (Struve on points)
John Hathaway vs Rick Story (Story by 1st round TKO)

Cro Cop vs Al-Turk official for UFC 99

PRIDE 2006 Open Weight Grand Prix Champion Mirko Cro Cop will return to the UFC in two weeks to meet fringe contender Mustapha Al Turk on the televised portion of the card. Cro Cop had three previous fights in the organisation, going 1-2 with his only win coming over the very limited and inexperienced Eddie Sanchez at UFC 67. At the time Cro Cop was on the back of his Grand Prix win, and the organisation was looking to fast track him to a Heavyweight title shot against then champion Tim Sylvia (who then lost his title to Randy Couture) and with the likes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira about to be signed there seemed to be endless huge matchups that involved the Croatian. Cro Cop then met Gabriel Gonzaga at the main event of UFC 70 for the right to fight the champion and after being beaten up on the ground for much of the first round, Cro Cop was knocked out with a violent head kick. Cro Cop then returned at UFC 75 where he dropped a close decision to Cheick Kongo which left many fans jumping ship as it appeared Cro Cop’s days as a contender were done.

Since the disappointing losses, Mirko has won two bouts and had a no contest with Alistair Overeem in a fight that he was getting battered in. His most recent outing saw him stop Hong Man Choi at Dynamite with a leg kick in a lacklustre fight. Cro Cop’s return does add some excitement to what in my opinion is a pretty boring Heavyweight division in the UFC. The two guys at the top I don’t think could handle the likes of Fedor, Barnett, Arlovski or even Tim Sylvia (thats more a style thing then a skill thing and I’d love to see Mir submit Sylvia in a rematch). Cro Cop, with the likes of Couture and Nogueira in the division, would make a good opponent for some of these guys and a win over him for the likes of Velasquez or Carwin would boost up their resume’ big time. Cro Cop has to get past Al Turk first, and in his recent form that’s no gimme’. I think Cro Cop knocks him out but you just don’t know what he has left if the fight gets tough.

UFC 99 will show six fights on the main card which is great news. All of the fights are three rounders including the main event which sees Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva do battle. This is a card I’m really looking forward to now as there is four fights I’m genuinely excited about and another two which will be good battles. The Davis-Hardy fight is shaping up to be a grudge match with someone finally bringing Davis’ Irish roots into question and Davis not loking it one bit. Velasquez gets a real test against Cheick Kongo in the co-main event and Caol Uno makes his return to the UFC against Spencer Fisher in what could be an all-out war. Plus for Australian’s like me who like both MMA and boxing, the UFC is on at 5am and Cotto-Clottey is on at midday so it’s going to be a good day!

Silva and Shogun score wins at UFC 97

Anderson Silva was extended the five round limit for the first time in his UFC career yesterday as Thales Leites basically adapted the butt-scoot technique in order to survive. Leites offered very little offence during the fight as Silva toyed with him waiting for something to counter off. The fight would probably have been the worse in UFC history had Silva not been so creative with his striking, throwing side kicks to Leites’ knee as well as jabbing at his thigh. The fight was painful to watch at times as Silva was standing within range for Thales to do whatever he pleased to him yet Thales was that reluctant to engage that he didn’t throw anything. The fight was only worstened by one of the judges who somehow thought the fight was up for grabs going into the last round and gave Leites two of the rounds. I was hard pressed to give Leites the 2nd round despite him scoring a takedown and ‘working’ from on top for a good portion of the round.

The question remains, when are the UFC going to give Silva a decent challenge. His last three fights he’s faced guys so clearly out of his league that it’s starting to damage his reputation. We know what he’s capable when he’s put in with a guy who he feels threatened by. He destroyed Rich Franklin twice as well as Dan Henderson and Nate Marquadt in performances that would make most contenders think about changing weight divisions. Actually that’s not a bad idea for Silva, maybe a forced move to 205lbs is what’s needed for his career as he’ll likely find guys in his own league up there. Or maybe should St Pierre defeat Thiago Alves they’ll make that super fight for their end of year show. There’s no one for Silva to fight at 185lbs who makes me think will bring any better a performance out of him. Maia has a chance of pulling off a victory as he’s much more aggressive with his Jiu Jitsu game, but I think we’d see Silva toy with him as he pleased as well. It’s got to be 205lbs or Georges St Pierre for Anderson Silva as far as I’m concerned.

In the co feature, Mauricio Shogun returned to form with an entertaining first round knockout of former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck Liddell. The fight was entertaining with both men landing hard shots and scoring takedowns in what was a wild first round. At one stage Shogun dropped down for a leg lock on Liddell who showed (for me anyway) surprising knowledge of how to escape the position. Then in the final minute, Shogun landed a leaping left hook that dropped Liddell and finished him with some of his famous ground and pound. Liddell rose shortly after the stoppage but was unaware of his surroundings or what had just happened.

The fight answered some questions, but left one big one unanswered. Is Shoguns conditioning there yet? He didn’t appear to gas which suggests that it’s definately better then it has been, but we didn’t see him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds where it was painful to watch him against Coleman. The questions it did answer is that Shogun has a world class skill set and it was probably his leg kicks that set up the victory. His ground game is also awesome for those of you who think on that performance that he is a striker. The other question it answered was that this has to be the end of the line for Liddell. It’s three times in his last five fights that he’s been laid out and while they were to three of the best guys in the game, you don’t want to see the guy become a punching bag. I’ve always been a big Liddell fan and while I’m also a big Shogun fan and was happy to see the guy back in form, part of me felt bad for Liddell that he went out like this. Hopefully the guy makes the right decision and retires with his health.

Also on the card, Kryzstof Soszynski scored a first round submission victory with a kimura over Brian Stann. Cheick Kongo battered Antoni Hardonk despite breaking his hand in the first round, finishing the fight with ground and pound in the 2nd round. Luiz Cane and Steve Cantwell engaged in a rather boring striking match that makes me wonder if these guys know that they’re allowed to wrestle? In a bonus fight on the PPV card, Sam Stout and Matt Wiman went to war and fought three very close rounds with Wiman getting the best of the positions and Stout doing more damage. In the end, Stout scored a close but unanimous decision (I thought Wiman won) in front of his home crowd.

On the preliminaries, TUF8 veterans Elliot Marshall and Vinny Magalhaes went the distance in a fight many people thought Vinny should of won (according to a few reports he had Marshall mounted and eating punches in two rounds while Marshall did shit) yet Marshall scored a 30-27 victory on two cards and 29-28 on the third. Canadians Denis Kang, TJ Grant and Mark Bocek all scored much needed wins, while David Loiseau copped a beating from Ed Herman and Jason MacDonald was stopped in the first round by Nate Quarry.

Full Results
Anderson Silva UD5 (50-46, 49-46, 48-47) Thales Leites
Mauricio Shogun TKO1 (punches) Chuck Liddell
San Stout UD3 (29-28) Matt Wiman
Kryzstof Soszynski Sub1 (kimura) Brian Stann
Cheick Kongo TKO2 (punches) Antoni Hardonk
Luiz Cane UD3 (30-27, 29-28, 30-27) Steve Cantwell
Denis Kang UD3 (30-27) Xavier Foupa Pokam
Nate Quarry TKO1 (punches) Jason MacDonald
Ed Herman UD3 (30-27, 30-26, 30-27) David Loiseau
TJ Grant SD3 (29-28, 28-29, 30-27) Ryo Chonan
Mark Bocek Sub1 (Rear Naked Choke) David Bielkheden
Elliot Marshall UD3 (30-27, 29-28, 30-27) Vinny Magalhaes

UFC 97 Weigh-ins

All fighters made weight for the weigh in bar David Bielkheden who had two hours to drop an extra pound (not sure if he did or not). Shogun looked in as good a shape as I’ve seen him since he went to the UFC. Anderson Silva looked to have a good size advantage over Leites despite coming in at 182lbs. The weigh ins went off without any incidents with Liddell getting by far the biggest reception followed closely by returning Canadian star David Loiseau who challenged Rich Franklin for the UFC Middleweight Championship at UFC 58.
The full list of weights:

Thales Leites 185
Anderson Silva 182lbs

Chuck Liddell 206lbs
Mauricio Shogun 206lbs

Antoni Hardonk 249lbs
Cheick Kongo 232lbs

Luiz Cane 206lbs
Steve Cantwell 205lbs

Krzysztof Soszynski 204lbs
Brian Stann 206lbs

Vinicius Magalhaes 204lbs
Elliot Marshall 205lbs

Xavier Foupa-Pokam 185lbs
Denis Kang 185lbs

Jason MacDonald 186lbs
Nate Quarry 186lbs

Ed Herman 186lbs
David Loiseau 185lbs

David Bielkheden 157lbs
Mark Bocek 154lbs

Ryo Chonan 171lbs
TJ Grant 169lbs

Sam Stout 155lbs
Matt Wiman 155lbs

UFC 97 (Silva-Leites, Liddell-Shogun) Predictions

 

I left these a little later then I wanted to and I apologise to all of you who want to look good to your friends by stealing my in form predictions, but the De La Hoya retirement put it back a few days. There’s only really two fights on this card worth going into, actually there’s only one but the other is for a title so this won’t be as in depth as some of my other predictions articles. Basically this card consists of a mismatch title fight between one of the best (if not the best) pound for pound fighters in MMA against a guy who hasn’t really proven himself against top competition. Thales Leites is an excellent fighter, but he quite simply isn;t ready for a title shot against a dominant champion like Silva. Why Okami didn’t get his shot this time around I have no idea as Leites hasn’t been that much more marketed. The real fight on this card is the Chuck Liddell vs Mauricio Shogun battle in the co-feature which sees the former UFC Light Heavyweight champion against the PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion. The rest of the card will be entertaining for sure, but nothing with any major implications.

Main Card
Anderson Silva vs Thales Leites
(UFC Middleweight Championship)
Prediction- Silva by 1st round KO
Anderson Silva didn’t look that motivated in his last title defence against Patrick Cote and seemed to cruise through the bout until Cote busted his knee. With another soft touch (compared to Silva anyway) I think Silva needs to and will make an example of Leites to basically say that he needs a challenge and it’s not safe letting these guys anywhere near him. Leites is a solid ground fighter with good power standing up and a good chin, but his stand-up is technically retarded, his wrestling is pretty average and his stamina is questionable. His top game is as good as anyones in MMA. He transitions to the back with ease, his ground and pound is world class and he has very strong submission abilities. In saying that, I really think his stand-up is that bad that if Silva opens with a barrage he’ll take Leites out.

Chuck Liddell vs Mauricio Shogun
Prediction- Liddell by 2nd round KO
I want to try and educate some of those who haven’t seen much of Shogun. The man is a ground and pound fighter. He is not and never will be a Muay Thai gun like so many claim. His hands are awful as evidenced by the fact that Coleman repeatedly caught him with his Great Grandpa jab. Shogun’s strength has always been his knees in the clinch, his striking from on top and his escapes from the bottom. We all know what Liddell’s strengths are; he avoids clinches and takedowns like they’re AIDS and he knocks mother fuckers out. I think this fight is a bad matchup for Shogun stylistically. I’m definately not one of those people who think Shogun was always overrated because the Shogun that brutalised Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona at PRIDE Final Conflict 2005 would stand a chance with any man. Shogun I don’t think trains as hard as he used to when he was fighting out of Chute Boxe and his physical strength doesn’t match up to Liddell’s. ‘The Iceman’ should wear him down while avoiding the clinch where Shogun is most dangerous and finish him off in the 2nd round. I’d love to see Shogun return to form and retire Liddell (not because I don’t like Liddell, not at all) so all those Shogun haters can be silenced but this fight is a bad matchup for him.

Kryzstof Soszynski vs Brian Stann
Prediction- Stann on points

Antoni Hardonk vs Cheick Kongo
Prediction- Hardonk by 2nd round KO

Luiz Cane vs Steve Cantwell
Prediction- Cane by 1st round KO

Preliminaries
Vinny Magalhaes vs Elliot Marshall
Prediction- Magalhaes by 1st round submission

Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs Denis Kang
Prediction- Kang by 2nd round submission

Jason MacDonald vs Nate Quarry
Prediction- Quarry by 2nd round KO

Ed Herman vs David Loiseau
Prediction- Herman on points

David Bielkheden vs Mark Bocek
Prediction- Bocek on points

Ryo Chonan vs TJ Grant
Prediction- Grant on points

Sam Stout vs Matt Wiman
Prediction- Wiman on points