UFC 91: Lesnar defeats Couture, Florian whips Stevenson

I’ve put this off a bit, First of all I was busy and it was hard to get on here and write this up (mainly because Main Event are cocksuckers and put the fight on a working day so I only saw it yesterday and since then I’ve worked 16 of the last 36 hours and out of the other 20 I’ve slept eight, driven to and from work for about two, trained four which leaves six hours that doesn’t include eating, showering and jacking off (about a 1-1-4 ratio there)) and secondly I wasn’t exactly eager to get on here and write about how one of my most unfavourite fighters of all-time knocked out my favourite fighter who is still alive.

Brock Lesnar 2nd round knockout Randy Couture
Basically Lesnar proved what Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga should have but couldn’t do after Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez did a few years back, and that is that Randy Couture doesn’t belong at heavyweight. Couture’s a freak and a legendary fighter and like all legendary fighters weight doesn’t play as much of an impact as it should with guys like this, but there’s only so much you can give away before it becomes a factor. When you’ve got a 60lb weight disadvantage against a guy who comes from the same background as you, all of a sudden those mistakess you make with your stand-up and submission games need to not be there and that’s where Couture lost this fight. If Couture was better at jiu jitsu he would have taken Lesnar’s back in the scramble in the first round and likely choked him out and if his stand-up was better he would have taken a few more of the many many many openings Lesnar leaves in his stand-up and likely knocked him out. I thought Couture had those parts of his game up to the level where he could take advantage of those, but with 60lbs of weight against him it made those advantages he had over Brock that bit more even.
Despite the win, I’m not sold on Lesnar that much. He has a good one two and throws good knees (it was a knee that hurt Couture about 5 seconds before the right hand that dropped him) and is a big strong guy who will take people down who don’t have good wrestling, but he reminds me of Tito Ortiz at Light Heavyweight when he was dominating. As soon as someone has a good enough skill set with the style matchup to take some of Brocks physical advantages away they’ll beat him. If Nogueira isn’t too shopworn to beat Mir then I can’t see what Brock can do with him. I’d pick Gonzaga to tear Lesnar apart within five minutes if he shows the form he did in that fight. Don’t even get me started on what the Affliction trio (Fedor, Barnett and Arlovski) would do to that guy. Lesnar has way too many weaknesses to deal with a big man with good skills. That was the first time we’d seen him try and outwrestle someone who can wrestle and even with the extra weight, his takedowns were easily stuffed (except for one) by Couture and if Couture had the extra lbs on his frame, the fight wouldn’t have been a contest. Brock to be beaten within a year; within one defence if Nogueira isn’t upset by Mir.

Now onto the rest of the card, which quite frankly was top notch.

Kenny Florian 1st round submission (Rear Naked Choke) Joe Stevenson
And what a rear naked choke it was! Florian totally dominated the fight and proved beyond all doubts that first of all he is a better fighter then he was when Sean Sherk manhandled him two years ago, and secondly that he is the top contender to BJ Penns crown should Penn stay at 155lbs. I don’t think Florian will hang with Penn, but he could make a competitive fight out of it. Who knows as well, we haven’t seen Penn in a hard fight at 155lbs since the rematch with Caol Uno at UFC 39 so we’re still not sure how good Penn’s cardio is; if Florian doesnt get blown away early he could make it interesting.

Dustin Hazelett 1st round submission (Crazy Armbar/Omoplata thing) Tamdan McCrory
That was just sick in both the figurative and literal translations. If anyone just watched the main event or for what ever reason hasn’t seen this, go and see it. The only other thing that needs to be said about this fight is that Hazelett has the best bumfluff beard I’ve ever seen.

Gabriel Gonzaga 1st round knockout Josh Hendricks
Time for Gonzaga to have his competition stepped up I think. Cheick Kongo would be the perfect opponent for Gonzaga to put himself right back into the mix against, either him or Junior dos Santos. Hendricks should be fighting the likes of Eddie Sanchez and they should be fighting in a small venue in Redneckville for a $50 winner takes all purse.

Demian Maia 1st round submission (Rear Naked Choke) Nate Quarry
Glad I was wrong here. Maia is a beast on the ground, that half guard sweep was beautiful and Quarry didn’t have an answer for him once he got on top. Actually, I don’t think there’s a middleweight out there who would have an answer for this guy on top of him. He’s one of those rare talents in MMA who can make anyone’s guard seem non existant. Put this guy in with Okami or Bisping or anyone else near the top of the middleweight picture because he’s ready.

Other Results
Jeremy Stephens 3rd round knockout Rafael dos Anjos
Aaron Riley UD3 Jorge Gurgel
Mark Bocek 3rd round submission Alvin Robinson
Matt Brown 2nd round submission Ryan Thomas

Why Couture will beat Lesnar

With what is being billed as the biggest fight in UFC heading this way on the weekend, I thought that rather then put it in with the rest of the predictions I’d give it it’s own post. Afterall, this fight is bigger then the rest of the card. UFC 91 almost resembles a boxing card in that there’s one massive fight, one good fight that could likely top the main bill and a bunch of lesser fights. However, I can’t remember any boxing match that I’ve looked forward to as much as this fight in a long time. As the title suggests, I’m picking Couture to overcome size and youth and beat Brock Lesnar this weekend.
Here’s why:

Wrestling
Now Lesnar probably has the advantage here, but Couture is no Heath Herring who has zero takedown defence. Couture is also no Frank Mir who goes as far as throwing wild kicks to get his opponents to take him down so he can work off his back. Lesnar is going to find Couture a lot harder to take down then anyone he’s ever faced. Randy knows he has to avoid going to his back in this fight and he’s going to make life very difficult for Lesnar when it comes to him getting that takedown. Lesnar needs to be able to take Couture down at will to win this fight. If he struggles to get Couture down, he’s going to be in for a long night.

Striking
While Lesnar has shown he has a big punch (see the Lesnar vs Heath Herring fight at UFC 87) I’m not at all convinced that he can land it on Randy Couture. Couture has excellent head movement and very underrated punching power. He punches from unorthodox angles that catch a lot of the less techical strikers off guard (see the first Couture vs Liddell fight at UFC 43 as well as the Couture vs Tim Sylvia fight at UFC 68) and he sets them up very well. He also has very good leg kicks that he uses very effectively to set up his punches. If Couture can stop Lesnar’s takedown attempts, he’ll box his ears off and maybe even knock Lesnar out with standing strikes.

Greco-Roman Clinch
While Lesnar has a decorated wrestling background, he has it in freestyle wrestling. Couture is an Olympic Alternate Greco Roman Wrestler who has developed his style to make it very effective in MMA. Couture controls the clinch and uses knees, punches and elbows to set up his takedowns. This is something that Lesnar hasn’t had done to him and won’t be able to properly prepare for until Couture’s done it to him in the Octagon. It’ll be a lot harder for Lesnar to explode and get his takedown when he’s stuffed up against the fence defending against Couture’s dirty boxing.

Jiu Jitsu
Couture is a lot more experienced off his back then Lesnar is. If Lesnar takes Couture down, Couture has the know-how to defend from his back, scramble and get back to his feet. If Couture takes Lesnar down, what exactly has Lesnar done to prepare him for the live situation of a top of the ladder ground and pounder like Randy Couture dropping elbows on his head? I don’t think Couture has the ability to tap Lesnar from his back, but he has the ability to hold his guard, minimise damage and work his way back up.

Submissions
Even though he hasn’t won many fights by submission, anyone who can pull off an anaconda choke in an MMA match (see Couture vs Mike Van Arsdale on UFC 54) knows how to win a fight by submission. If Randy gets on top there’s a good chance he’ll do what he normally does and not risk a submission with the chance of ending up on the bottom. However, if Lesnar turns his back when he’s getting punched then we could see Couture win by choke. The thing with Lesnar is we don’t know how he will react when he’s in these positions if he gets put there. He could very well be a rookie when it comes to the bottom game and will make beginners mistakes and Couture will be quick to capitilise if that’s the case. If you can get good odds on a Couture win by submission it’s probably the best bet you’ll get.

Cage Tactics
Randy Couture is the Godfather of cage tactics. We’ve seen countless times when Couture has worked his opponent out and exploited their weaknesses so effectively that seemingly evenly match fights turn into mismatches. Lesnar on the other hand relies on his size and strength to win fights. This could be almost Holyfield vs Tyson-esque in the matchup where the older more experienced man picks apart his opponent who can only fight one way. Couture has many tools he can rely on in the cage and knows what he can and can’t do in there as well as what to do when he gets in trouble. If there’s any certainty in this fight it’s that Couture has a gameplan and that if he gets a chance to implement it he will.

Stamina
Despite being the older man, I think Couture definately has the edge in cardio if it turns into a fast paced fight. We’ve yet to see Lesnar in a fight where he’s had the pace pushed on him so it’s hard to know how good his cardio is. He may have looked to be in great condition against Herring but he was in total control in that fight. If Couture starts outboxing him or takes him down, how quickly will Lesnar gas trying to get himself out of trouble? It could turn out that Lesnar is in as good a shape as he looks, but the overly muscular physique as well as his lack of experience in a long, hard fight makes he put a big question mark on his stamina.

Experience
Do I really need to explain this? Couture has had 24 professional MMA fights and has been fighting the very best since his third fight. Lesnar is having his fourth fight and while he’s fought two good fighters, one of them has beaten him and the other one was tailor made for him. When the going gets tough for Lesnar how’s he going to react? What will he do if he gets put on his back? What will he do if he can’t get Couture on his back and he’s losing the striking battle? Couture’s been in every position possible and knows what he needs to do to win a big fight like this. Out of all the elements of a mixed martial arts fight, this is Couture’s biggest advantage.

Prediction
Lesnar is going to come out fast, but I think Couture will weather an early storm and take Lesnar out late in the fight. Lesnar will probably get an early takedown but when Couture gets back to his feet and starts outboxing him I think Lesnar will start making mistakes and then Couture will eventually start taking him down. Once on top he’ll probably not risk an early submission, but instead pound Lesnar with shots. I think the fight will end in either the third or fourth round with Couture winning by either rear naked choke or strikes from the mount. Randy Couture by 3rd round stoppage.

UFC 91 Undercard Predictions

This weekend sees probably the biggest UFC card of the year (so far anyway, UFC 92 has it well covered as long as the fights stay the same). Despite Foxtel showing a few live boxing matches on this Sunday and the UFC on the next morning (no, it wasn’t because of the boxing, it was because they had to replay Andre fucking Rieu’s fucking pansy arse concert, honestly the only PPV that would be worth buying with him in it is if they chose him to be Fedor’s freak matchup on New Years Eve!), this card is that big that I will be isolating myself from everything including the Jeff Lacy-Jermain Taylor clash on Sunday in order to be able to watch this fight without having anything spoilt. With the main event being of the magnitude that it is, I’ll do a seperate post later in the week for that fight. As for now, here’s the undercard. I’m hoping my recent form with boxing predictions is going to translate into this UFC card.

Main Card
Kenny Florian vs Joe Stevenson
Prediction- Florian on points
This is a good fight. Both guys have excellent ground games but the big difference between the two of them is that Florian is also a very dangerous striker. Stevenson has decent technique with his hands as far as Jiu Jitsu guys go, but he doesn’t have the sharp punching or the well rounded striking game that Florian has and I think this will be the deciding factor in what should be a close fight. However, I do give Stevenson the edge on the ground and I think he could submit Florian if the fight hits the ground. The fight is bound to be close and while it won’t have the anticipation of the main event, it could very well be fight of the night. Florian to take a close, but unanimous decision after he wins the stand-up battle after a stalemate on the ground.

Nick Cantone vs Amir Sadollah
Prediction- Sadollah by 2nd round knockout
I can’t see the UFC putting their TUF 7 champion who has only had a couple of professional fights (is it 1 or 2?) in against anyone too dangerous first up. This will probably be a fight to showcase Sadollah to the Pay Per View audience and I expect Sadollah to use his body kicks and knees to the head to systematically break Cantone down before knocking him out. However, I know fuck all about Cantone and I’m basing this off absolutely nothing other then me thinking the UFC won’t risk Sadollah against anyone too good.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Josh Hendricks
Prediction- Gonzaga by 1st round knockout
The second mismatch on the main card. Gonzaga is on his way back after those back to back losses and looked the business against an overmatched opponent last time out. Expect the same here. Gonzaga will take him down, pass his guard and elbow his face into mince meat before the referee stops the fight.

Demian Maia vs Nate Quarry
Prediction- Quarry on points
There is a very good chance that I score one out of five on the main card and this is very much a gamble. The safe money is with Maia who is on a tear right now while Quarry is never overly impressive. However, I think with Quarry’s previous experience training at team Quest with the likes of Randy Couture, Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland, his takedown defence is likely to be very good. I think he’ll force Maia to fight him standing up and pepper him with shots en route to a unanimous decision. It’d be much better for the division though if Maia submits him quickly as we’ll then have someone for Anderson Silva to fight.

Preliminaries
Dustin Hazelett vs Tamdan McCrory
Prediction- Hazelett on points
This is an interesting fight, but one I think Hazelett should win easily if he fights the right fight. I think McCrory will be tentative about taking Hazelett down early, but when he starts havig trouble with Hazeletts lanky frame and decent boxing skills he’ll try his luck in “McLovin’s” guard. Hazelett has excellent sweeps and submissions from his back and I think he’ll end up on top in each round and bust up McCrory en route to a shutout decision.

Jorge Gurgel vs Aaron Riley
Prediction- Gurgel on points
This could be a war as well. Both of these guys are as tough as they come (Gurgel especially who is rarely in a dull fight) and I think they’ll put on a show. Hopefully Gurgel fights like he should and take Riley down and actually uses strikes when he gets a dominant position. However, I think he’ll duke it out and it’ll be a harder fight then it needs to be, but Gurgel will prove that bit better in all aspects. Gurgel should definately avoid going to his back against Riley, anywhere else and he should be in control of whats going on.

Rafael dos Anjos vs Jeremy Stephens
Prediction- Stephens on points
Anjos is a Gracie Jiu Jitsu student who boasts a 11-2 record making his UFC debut. I think Stephens is probably a bit too much for him first up and he’ll expose Anjos’ lack of stand-up and win a boring unanimous decision.

Mark Bocek vs Alvin Robinson
Prediction- Robinson by 1st round submission
This will be my pick for submission of the night. Both guys are good Jiu Jitsu practioners, but Robinson being a Royce Gracie black belt has the edge. Boceks best chance is to keep this up, but I think even doing that he won’t be able to avoid going to the ground. Robinson to finish Bocek quickly with a rear naked choke.

Matt Brown vs Ryan Thomas
Prediction- Brown by 2nd round knockout
Brown steps in to replace fellow TUF7 veteran Matthew Riddle on short notice. That shouldn’t make a difference however as I think Brown will just overwhelm Thomas and pound him out in the 2nd round after a near 10-8 first round. Brown is simply just too powerful.

Couture vs Lesnar at UFC 91

This week the UFC announced that their Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture will defend his title against former pro wrestling star Brock Lesnar in what could be the biggest fight in UFC history. In my opinion its certainly not the biggest fight, but financially it probably will be. The fight will take place at UFC 91 in Las Vegas in November.
As I previously said in my last post, the first time Couture gets Lesnar on his back (and I’m 100% sure it will happen at some stage in the fight) he’ll pass his guard and submit him. I doubt Lesnar has any ability off his back. I also doubt Lesnar will be able to bully Couture on the feet like he did with Mir and Herring and get an easy takedown. Mir and Herring have zero takedown defence, infact Mir wanted the fight to be fought with his back on the mat.
I really think Couture will be way too experienced and he’ll submit Lesnar sometime after the first two rounds. The only way I see Lesnar winning this fight is on a cut.

Randy Couture returning to the UFC?

A whole bunch of MMA sites are reporting that UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture will return to the UFC under a new contract to face Brock Lesnar at UFC 91 in the main event and then face Fedor Emelianenko under a UFC/M-1 Global co promoted event on Super Bowl weekend. I’m not going to go into too much detail on anything because I don’t really know whats going on with it right now, but considering BJ Penn vs St-Pierre is down for Super Bowl weekend already, we could have the two biggest fights in MMA history on the one card! I doubt very much that will happen, but that was one of the first things that came to my mind when I read this.

Couture vs Lesnar is an interesting fight. I have no doubt Couture will beat him. I really doubt Lesnar will be able to take Couture down. Couture is a great wrestler and has been training in MMA for a lot longer. He knows what works in MMA wrestling wise and what doesn’t. Lesnar just dumps people on theit back and tries to beat them up. Not to mention that with Couture’s Greco Roman skills, he’ll be bringing something to the table that Lesnar won’t really have seen much of before because Lesnar is a freestyle wrestler. If Couture puts Lesnar on his back once in this fight, it’ll be over. He’ll either pound him out or he’ll submit him (with the latter being the more likely scenario). I also favout Couture’s cardio over Lesnar’s which will play a big factor considering I doubt Lesnar has the abilities yet to finish Couture.

The big thing that is on my mind is whether or not Randy Couture will remain as the UFC’s heavyweight Champion? He hasn’t lost his title in the Octagon, yet the UFC have been trying to build up Nogueira for a while and may just strip Couture because he’s been out of the Octagon too long. I also doubt that the UFC would give Lesnar a shot at the title this soon. Whether they strip him or not everyone knows he’s the champion right now. I personally think a fight between him and Nogueira is a really bad matchup for Couture, but Randy should still be the one fighting Fedor. It’s a fight that needs to happen. It’s the UFC heavyweight Champion versus the PRIDE heavyweight Champion. We’ve been waiting years to see this finally happen. If Dana White is willing to bite the bullet and co-promote the fight just so it happens that fair play to him.