Writing elsewhere

Since no one really reads this anyway and I couldn’t be bothered trying to drum up interest I don’t know why I’m even bothering putting this up, but this site won’t be used anymore and I’ll be writing over at www.theroar.com.au now. Any followers from here can read my stuff there.

UFC 129 Predictions

I’ve had some computer issues hence the lack of posts in the last week but there’s no better card to come back to then this one. Without a doubt this is the most stacked card of the year so far with two title fights as well as two fights with a lot of divisional significance behind them and a fun undercard (except for Matyushenko-Brilz) and it’s being held in front of 55,000 Canadian fans. In the main event Georges St Pierre takes on EliteXC Welterweight champion and Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields for the UFC Welterweight championship. St Pierre makes his sixth defence of the title he took from Matt Serra and looks to break a drought of decision wins which has gone back to January 2009! Shields was on a tear in the smaller shows, defeating Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and then upsetting Dan Henderson before signing with the UFC. He edged Martin Kampmann out at UFC 121 in October to earn the shot but has also defeated the likes of Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami in what is now a 15 fight win streak.

Co featuring see’s the first UFC Featherweight championship fight with reigning champion Jose Aldo defending against Canadian Mark Hominick. Aldo was the reigning WEC champion, technically making his third defence of the title having previously defended against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. Hominick is a former UFC fighter, competing at lightweight where he went 2-0 (beating Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel) before dropping to featherweight and the WEC. Hominick is riding a five fight win streak that saw him somehow get a split decision over Leonard Garcia and knock out George Roop at UFC Fight for the Troops in January. Also on the card UFC hall of famer Randy Couture will fight former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson makes his UFC debut against up and comer Mark Bocek.

Georges St Pierre vs Jake Shields
(UFC Welterweight Championship)
Prediction- St Pierre by third round stoppage
I really don’t like Shields at welterweight. I think the weight cut hurts him too much and his cardio is shit at this weight. He looks so much better at 185 where he can grind on an opponent for five rounds like he did to Henderson and Miller. I thought Shields looked ordinary against Martin Kampmann (to the point where I scored the fight to Kampmann) and had the Dane fought a smarter fight (ie not trying to guillotine someone with those sort of grappling credentials every chance he had and giving up takedowns to do it instead of just sprawling and using his superior striking) he would have won easily. I don’t think Shields will get St Pierre down and if he does I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him there long enough to set up a submission. He’ll be forced to fight GSP in a stand-up battle and his stand-up quite frankly is poo and his chin is suspect. St Pierre will outwork him, Shields will gas and GSP will get his first stoppage win since BJ Penn.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
(UFC Featherweight Championship)
Prediction- Aldo on points
Hominick is one of the few guys who will offer Aldo a test on the feet. He’s a world class kickboxer and while his power isn’t overly devastating it’s solid and he’s technically sound. I just think that Aldo will be too quick and explosive. He’ll control the pace, keep the fight on the outside where he can land his jab and his leg kicks and I don’t see him leaving his comfort zone to try and take Hominick to the ground to get the finish. Hominick will last because he’s tough, and he might even make a round or two close but Aldo will be too quick, too confident and too good and will win by a wide margin.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Machida by second round knockout
(knockout of the night pick)
I’d be more confident in Couture if I’d seen him fight at a decent level in the last 12-18 months. He hasn’t had a proper test since Brandon Vera in November 2009 and he struggled in that fight with Vera’s takedown defence and muay thai skills. Machida’s movement and unorthodox striking I think will work well against Couture’s attempts to tie him up and his takedown defence is very strong. The thing that worries me for Randy is I think his resistance to punishment has dropped significantly. Coleman rocked him with a right hand briefly in their fight, Vera dropped him with a body kick and was hurting him with knees to the body and Nogueira dropped him twice and I don’t think any of those guys have the power that Machida does (even Nogueira who is 30-40lb heavier). Machida’s style works well against guys who can’t beat him standing. Couture might get him to the fence where he can use his inside game and punish Machida from the single collar tie with elbows and uppercuts, but I think he’ll take too much coming in and Machida will eventually knock him out.

Jason Brilz vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Prediction- Brilz on points
Why this fight is on the main card is beyond me. It’ll be a clinch fest with very little striking and I think Brilz has the more well rounded game and will win a snoozer.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
(fight of the night pick)
Henderson’s wrestling and striking will get him the decision but I see him having to get out of multiple submission attempts from Bocek who has one of the nastiest submission games at 155lbs. This fight should be high tempo with good scrambles on the ground and while they probably won’t be the most technical punch exchanges on the feet, they should be fun. I think Henderson’s hips and ability to stay on top will get him the edge in most rounds. It should be close and it should be very entertaining.

Preliminaries
Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald
Prediction- Diaz by third round submission
(submission of the night pick)
I won’t rule MacDonald out completely in this fight but I don’t think he has the strength to dominate Diaz on the floor or the experience to get out of submissions. He’ll do well early but Diaz’s technical advantages will take over and he’ll pick MacDonald apart on the feet and punish him there before catching him in something late.

Jake Ellenberger vs Sean Pierson
Prediction- Ellenberger on points
I admittedly have only seen Pierson once, but Ellenberger seems to have the advantage here being the better credentialled wrestler. Plus I feel he’ll have something to prove after an average showing against Rocha in his last fight.

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts
Prediction- Patrick by first round submission
Another fight I’m very much looking forward to. Both guys have sneaky submission games and a good deal of smaller show experience behind them. I like Patrick and have been a fan for a while and I think he’ll deliver in front of his hometown fans and he’ll catch Roberts early with a submission. The longer the fight goes the better Roberts will do but I think he gets caught dry by the more experienced fighter.

Ivan Menjivar vs Charles Valencia
Prediction- Valencia on points
Menjivar’s game is a little out of date in my opinion. He’s a tough guy and he’s given some good fighters hard fights over the years but Valencia has been more consistent lately, even if his game isn’t top shelf. Loser goes home I think, and the winner gets fed to an up and comer.

Ryan Jensen vs Jason MacDonald
Prediction- MacDonald by second round submission
Jensen is always entertaining. His fights never go the distance and I don’t think this one will either. MacDonald gets another crack at keeping his UFC career alive and I think he drew a good matchup. Jensen has a habbit of getting himself caught in armbars and chokes in fights his winning and I think this one goes the same way.

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson
Prediction- Watson by first round submission
Makdessi is an interesting prospect ith a background in taekwondo and karate. He’s gone 8-0 and while I’ve only seen his last fight, I think Kyle Watson is a step up for him. Watson has good takedowns and solid top control and submissions. He’s patient and makes few mistakes and I think he’ll get Makdessi down and show up the Canadian as having a lack of ground game. It’s a good test for a striking prospect, but it’ll have to be put don to a learning curve I think.

Pablo Garza vs Yves Jabouin
Prediction- Garza by first round submission
For those of you who don’t know Garza, he was one of the better guys on the TUF GSP vs Koscheck show. The trouble was he drew eventual runner-up Michael Johnson in the first round of fights by hard fought decision and didn’t end up on the show. He won by brutal knockout on the finale and Jabouin won’t be able to handle him. His submissions are nasty and his stand-up is explosive. He’ll struggle with the wrestlers but a fight like this is made for him.

Shields and Diaz triumph in Strikeforce catchweight bouts

Welterweight champion of the now defunct EliteXC organisation Jake Shields today scored a first round submission victory over the Middleweight champion of the same organisation in the main event of todays Strikeforce card. Shields appeared to be struggling in the early goings as his inferior stand-up and wrestling skills left him on the end of some hard strikes and unable to get the fight to the mat where his world class submission skills could come into play. Midway through the round however he shot in for a takedown, then countered Lawler’s defence with a guillotine choke before pulling guard. Lawler stood up with Shields still wrapped around him before being brought back to the mat where he was forced to tap. The win solidifies what was already pretty solid in that Shields is one of the best 170lbers in the world even though this fight was fought at a catchweight of 182lbs. Shields however seems intent on fighting at least once more at 185 as he called out Strikeforce Middleweight champion Cung Le who hasn’t defended his title since winning it from Frank Shamrock last March.

On the undercard fellow Cesar Gracie fighter Nick Diaz scored a third round submission over Scott Smith in another catchweight bout. Diaz dominated the heavy handed Smith in the stand-up as he peppered him with repeated shots (when I say repeated, I’m talking 150-200 a round) scoring with heavy body punches and right hooks to the head. Smith had his moments in the first round but the 2nd round on was all Diaz and a flurry at the end of the round left Smith looking like a beaten fighter between rounds. Diaz didn’t let up in the third, battering Smith until he could take no more which resulted in a takedown attempt that fell short by a long way. Diaz routinely took Smiths back and showed his submission skills, tapping Smith out with a rear naked choke. Diaz looked like a seriously dangerous fighter again and it’s unfortunate that him and Shields are team mates as that would make for a terrific fight.

In a fight that shakes up the Heavyweight division big time, undefeated Brett Rogers added former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski to his resume’ with a stunning 22 second knockout in the first round of their clash. After a brief trade of feints, Rogers backed Arlovski into the fence where he unleased four heavy bombs on the Belarussian’s chin that left Arlovski out on all fours. With the win, Rogers moves to 10-0 with 9 knockouts and one submission (from strikes) with only one fight going to the 2nd round. The win sets Rogers up for a shot at Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem and likely derails Arlovski’s boxing debut which was scheduled for the end of the month and also a possible rematch with WAMMA Heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko would be unlikely without a decent return from Arlovski. Arlovski’s chin looks very suspect and I doubt he’d get anywhere in pro boxing where the guys he’s fighting are better trained to land punches to the face then most MMA fighters. With his athleticism I’m sure he’d score some wins and may do alright, but I’d be picking even a tough journeyman with a decent punch over him.

The other fights saw Joe Riggs score a unanimous decision over Phil Baroni and Mike Whitehead survive a third round knockdown to win a unanimous decision over former UFC heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman. In some other news, the highly anticipated women’s mega bout between Gina Carano and ‘Cyborg’ Santos is on for August 15th. I’m hoping they can at least fight five minute rounds even if it’s only three of them and surely this would have to be for some sort of championship bout. The undercard (or main event, not sure which is which yet) sees Josh Thomson defend his Strikeforce Lightweight title against Gilbert Melendez.

Strikeforce: Lawler vs Shields Predictions

 

Strikeforce has really emerged as one of the better promotions out there now. This card has some good talent and big names on it (well on the main card) and with no other MMA or any other combat sports on this weekend, it’ll make for good viewing. Headling the bout is a fight between EliteXC Welterweight and Middleweight champions Jake Shields and Robbie lawler at a catchweight of 183lbs. Why they didn’t just fight at 185 is beyond me, but the weight should make no difference as Lawler isn’t a huge 185lber having fought in the UFC at Welterweight early in his career. Also appearing on the card is former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski against undefeated prospect Brett Rogers and another catchweight bout between Scott Smith and Nick Diaz, this one at 179lbs.

Robbie Lawler vs Jake Shields
Prediction- Lawler by 2nd round knockout
Not sure what to make of this fight, so I’m going with the bigger fighter with the better wrestling. Shields has among the best ground skills in MMA, but his stand-up sucks and that will be bad if he can’t get Lawler down. Lawler has serious power which makes up for a lot of his technical retardedness, but he also has solid wrestling abilities. If Shields gets Lawler on his back, I think he’ll submit him without too much of a struggle because he’s that good on top.

 Andrei Arlovski vs Brett Rogers
Predictions- Arlovski by 1st round knockout
I doubt this will be the war everyone expects it to be because they both hit too damn hard so I expect someone’s going to sleep in the first or second round. Arlovski’s boxing is the sharper of the two and while Rogers has serious power, I think Arlovski will chop him down with leg kicks and land that big right hand over and over again until Rogers goes down. The thing I’m worried about being an Arlovski fan is that historically his losses have come in twos. He lost back-to-back to Rodriguez and Rizzo, and then again to Sylvia twice. It could be nothing, or it could be a big confidence thing that a hungry undefeated guy waiting for his chance could take advantage of.

Nick Diaz vs Scott Smith
Prediction- Diaz by 1st round submission
While Smith is an incredibly tough dude as well as the bigger guy in this fight, his ground game has always sucked. Diaz has excellent hands and I think he’ll be able to hang with Smith standing up long enough to take it to the ground where I think he’ll make quick work of Smith.

Phil Baroni vs Joe Riggs
Prediction- Riggs on points
This could be a war until Baroni gasses. Baroni hates everyone he fights and Riggs isn’t the most respectful character out there so I think these two will stand in the middle of the cage and bang with each other. Riggs though has the much better cardio as well as ground skills and maybe even stand-up, although I’d favour Baroni there because of his power. Baroni’s tough and doesn’t give up though, so I think this one will go three rounds.

Kevin Randleman vs Mike Whitehead
Prediction- Whitehead by 1st round submission
I’m looking forward to Randlemans return because I don’t like him and I think Whitehead will destroy him. Randleman has to be the most boring MMA champ ever and the shit that he talks just irritates me. Whitehead will have better wrestling, stand-up and submissions and I think he’ll get the takedown after a bit of effort, pass the non existant Randleman guard and submit him with either a kimura or a rear naked choke.

Arlovski vs Rogers completes Strikeforce: Lawler vs Shields

A Heavyweight clash between top five contender Andrei Arlovski and undefeated prospect Brett Rogers will be the final fight on the main card of the June 6 Strikeforce: Lawler vs Shields event. With the catchweight bout between EliteXC welterweight and middleweight champions headlining the event and the inclusion of this fight to an already decent undercard, this looks to be one of the top non UFC cards in recent memory. Also appearing on the card is Nick Diaz, fresh off his TKO victory over Frank Shamrock, facing up against the always entertaining Scott Smith. Bouts between former UFC Heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman and Mike Whitehead and former UFC contenders Joe Riggs and Phil Baroni rounds out the main card of this event.

Arlovski was set to make his professional boxing debut on the undercard of the Victor Ortiz-Marcos Maidana pay per view, but that fight looks to be on hold pending the outcome of his fight with Rogers. As much as I would like to see how Arlovski did inside the ring with 10oz gloves on, I think his home is MMA and there’s far more entertaining matchups for him in this sport. Plus the fact that two of his biggest weapons (leg kicks and takedown defence) won’t be a factor in a boxing match and it makes me think that Arlovski’s boxing career would have been short lived anyway.

Brett Rogers is highly untested, but he’s done what any top fighter would do to his competition in blowing them out. Out of his 9 professional wins, all of them have ended via strikes and only one of them has gone into the 2nd round. The biggest name on his record is a win over James Thompson, who is most famous for his fight with Kimbo Slice in the first nationally televised main event in MMA history. Arlovski stands as a huge step up in competition for the 28 year old in a fight that should prove to be an exciting stand-up battle while it lasts.

Strikeforce Results

Nick Diaz stopped Frank Shamrock in the 2nd round after dropping him with a body shot and finishing him on the ground. Shamrock’s game was just too dated for a well rounded modern fighter like Diaz, although his effort was respectable as he had some good escapes and did alright standing up in the first round. Diaz seems to be getting better and better and while I’d like to see him fight Jake Shields, they won’t because they train together. The welterweight division is weak outside of the UFC, maybe Jay Hieron would make for a good match with Diaz seeing how Affliction and Strikeforce seem to be friendly with one another. Shamrock’s at the end of the road and for Strikeforce’s long term plan it’s probably for the best. With some of the fighters they have under contract, having Shamrock in the main event is a bit like when the UFC was using Ken at UFC 48. Sure he’ll sell, but there’s other guys who should be getting marketed for the future.

Fight of the Night had to go to Scott Smiths 3rd round KO over Benji Radach after he took an absolute beating that included multiple knockdowns only to put Radach to sleep with a right hand of his own. Smith basically repeated the performance he had against Pete Sell at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale by scoring a totally unexpected knockout after looking to be a few shots away from being out himself. Smith is no worldwide contender or anything, but the guy always comes to fight and you’ve got to respect that.

In other action, Brett Rogers improved his undefeated record to 10-0 with a 2nd round KO over Ron Humphrey. Rogers was the first fighter I’ve seen to be docked a point for hair pulling in an MMA fighter (although he’s definately not the first to pull someones hair in a cage) but scored the KO in the 2nd round to move closer to a shot at Alistair Overeem’s Strikeforce Heavyweight belt. Gilbert Melendez won the Interim Lightweight title with a 2nd round TKO over Rodrigo Damm to set up a rematch with Josh Thomson. Cyborg Santos won with ease as she normally does. and will likely meet Gina Carano in womens MMA’s first super fight.

Alistair Overeem announced he’ll defend his Strikeforce Heavyweight title in June, probably against Fabrico Werdum should he sign with Strikeforce. Werdum submitted Overeem with a kimura from guard at the PRIDE Absolute Grand Prix of 2006 and will look to return from his shock loss to Junior dos Santos and exit from the UFC. Tito Ortiz also looks set to sign with the organisation, although his dream match of getting revenge on Frank Shamrock (thats right, Tito wants to fight someone smaller then him who has saw dust in his knee joints because he can’t beat anyone good) seems stupid now that Frank lost to a welterweight. There was a crowd in excess of 15,000 for this event which is definately good news for Strikeforce and it’ll be interesting to see where they go from here.

EliteXC: Heat Results

Before the fights started it was announced that Ken Shamrock got cut warming up and couldn’t take place in his fight against Kimbo Slice. Seth Petruzelli instead fought Kimbo in the main event.

Seth Petruzelli KO 1st round (0 minutes and 14 seconds) Kimbo Slice
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Sorry, that wasn’t very professional. Still, it was fucking hilarious. Slice got dropped by a light punch and was completely helpless and against a TUF reject. Dana White must have pissed his pants laughing when he heard about it (I’m assuming he didn’t actually watch it). I do like Kimbo, but I don’t like his fans. Kimbo seems like a decent guy who has made a living doing something that he’s good at, but he’s by no means the best in the World. His idiot fans who would go on youtube threads and talk about how he’d beat Fedor and Liddell and Wladimir Klitschko when infact he (was) a big guy who lifted weights and knew how to box a bit fighting stiffs in his backyard. I like it that Kimbo trains properly and wants to make a career out of this, but the fact that he was the face of MMA to the general public is a concern and it was good that he got annhilated by a journeyman on the main event of a nationally televised card in USA. I really think this could be the end of EliteXC, but then again they just announced the Eddie Alvarez-Nick Diaz fight which will be awesome.

Andrei Arlovski KO 2nd round Roy Nelson
The refereeing in this fight was horrendous. What the fuck posseses a referee to stand the fighters up when someone has side control and is looking for a kimura? I don’t think Nelson would have finished the fight from there because Arlovski seemed comfortable but the fact remains; Nelson took Arlovski down, he passed his guard and he was looking to finish but because EliteXC’s target audience has an IQ of -10 and they don’t understand how MMA works they bring it back to their feet because apparently ground fighting isn’t really fighting. As far as I’m concerned, if you don’t like ground fighting you aren’t a true MMA fan. Yeah sometimes it can be boring and stand-ups are required for the lesser shows where they don’t have as much finishing ability but in a fight between two world class heavyweights let the fighters sort it out for themselves. If you get dumped on your back and have your guard passed you’re at a level where you should have to work out of it yourself. It makes me sick watching referees get involved like that.
As for the rest of the fight, Arlovski didn’t look great but then he did take the fight on short notice. I think Barnett has the tools to beat him if he can get the fight to the ground and I think Fedor would ruin him if they fought. The finish though was typical Arlovski with good clean punching and a rarely seen variety of punches in MMA. Roy Nelson fought well and I think with a bit more cardio (I’m not sure if he is just normally out of shape or if the short notice made him more out of shape then normal) then he’d make a good opponent for a lot of decent heavyweights.

Jake Shields submission (armbar) 2nd round Paul Daley
This was a good fight. Much of it was spent with Shields mounting Daley but Daley had his moments as well. Shields was way too anxious to finish the fight and rushed that armbar in the first round which would have proved to be bad if there was more time left because Daley landed some sickening elbows. Shields also seemed to gas rather quickly (that could be because he’s been finishing everyone quickly) which could bring his downfall against better welterweights then Paul Daley. After the fight Shields talked of fighting Robbie Lawler for the EliteXC Middleweight title; with Kimbo’s loss this is the sort of thing EliteXC needs to put on to get more people watching. I’d pick Lawler in that fight, but the winner would be very marketable.

Gina Carano UD3 Kelly Kobald
I only saw the end of this fight. From what I saw, Carano has excellent takedown defence now and throws some vicious strikes. Kobald made a good fight of it though and was in it in the round that I watched. From what I’ve read of the first two rounds it was a good fight and could only help improve the legitimacy of womens MMA. The commentators repeatedly asking the fighters why they fight MMA won’t though.

Benji Radach KO 2nd round Murilo ‘Ninja’ Rua
Radach throws some big punches. Ninja seemed old and just couldn’t deal with his stand-up. He had his moments with the attempted leglocks and probably won three and a half minutes of the first round but got beaten up in the other 90 seconds. Radach has the skills to test Robbie Lawler, especially if he can score with his right hand.