UFC 95 Predictions

I’m keeping this brief for a few reasons. First, I don’t give much of a crap about this card. The only fight that interests me is Demian Maia vs Chael Sonnen and the rest don’t really have an impact on anything. Second, I’m going to be away for a few days and couldn’t be bothered writing up a big thing on it.

Main Card
Diego Sanchez vs Joe Stevenson
Prediction- Sanchez by 2nd round TKO

Wilson Gouveia vs Nate Marquadt
Prediction- Marquadt on points

Demian Maia vs Chael Sonnen
Prediction- Maia by 2nd round submission

Josh Koscheck vs Paulo Thiago
Prediction- Koscheck on points

Dan Hardy vs Rory Markham
Prediction- Markham on points

Preliminaries
Junior dos Santos vs Stefan Struve
Prediction- Struve by 1st round submission

Brian Cobb vs Terry Etim
Prediction- Etim by 2nd roubd submission

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs Neil Grove
Prediction- Ciesnolevicz on points

Evan Dunham vs Per Eklund
Prediction- Eklund on points

Paul Kelly vs Troy Mandaloniz
Prediction- Kelly on points

St Pierre batters Penn at UFC 94

Georges St Pierre defended his UFC Welterweight Championship on Sunday with a 4th round TKO win over BJ Penn after Penn didn’t answer the bell for the 5th and final round. The win was the second successful defence of th title for St Pierre, who took it from Matt Serra at UFC 83 last year with a 2nd round TKO win. The win sets up a fight between St Pierre and number one contender Thiago Alves who is coming off victories over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last two outings. The loss also likely sets up a fight between BJ Penn, who holds the UFC Lightweight title, and number one Lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

The fighters clinched up quickly after the opening round began and St Pierre tried for the entire round to take Penn down but with no success. The fighters seperated a few times with Penn landing a hard right hand on one occassion and St Pierre landing a solid right of his own on another. The round proved to be the tactical battle many anticipated and St Pierre probably won due to his aggression. Round two was a completely different story though. St Pierre again shot in for a single leg takedown and this time managed to get Penn on his back. Working from inside Penn’s rubber guard and butterfly guard, St Pierre worked Penn over with elbows and punches while looking to pass guard. The times he managed to get to side control, Penn used freakish escapes to get back to guard but that was all he was able to do as St Pierre won the second round big.

Penn looked like the minutes rest between the second and third round did him not good as he appeared sluggish at the start of the third round. St Pierre landed solid jabs and a devastating leg kick with little attempt at defence from the former Welterweight Champion before St Pierre again took Penn to the ground. Despite being able to pass Penn’s guard more in this round, St Pierre’s offence wasn’t as dominating as in the previous round. Still, the round ended with St Pierre on top working Penn over with strikes. Penn looked even more tired at the start of the 4th and after eating several punches and leg kicks, he found himself in the familiar position of being on his back. St Pierre’s confidence was growing as he often attempted to mount Penn with little regard for the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champions guard. Midway through the round St Pierre landed his most damaging strikes of the round and after referee Herb Dean asked for Penn to fight back, ‘GSP’ turned it up. St Pierre proceeded to punish Penn with devastating punches from on top and was probably only a few seconds away from stopping Penn when the round ended.

A frustrated looking St Pierre walked back to his corner and a physically beaten Penn staggered back to his. In the corner the doctor and referee both examined Penn before JD Penn, BJ’s brother and manager told the doctor he wanted to stop the fight and awarded St Pierre with the TKO victory. The win brings St Pierre’s record to 18-2 with only five fights going the distance. Penn’s record drops to 13-5 and likely puts an end to Penn’s aspirations of winning titles in every weight division. With Thiago Alves likely next on the French-Canadian’s plate, a possible mega fight with Anderson Silva will have to wait. That fight would pit, in my opinion anyway, the two top pound for pound fighters in MMA against each other.

On the undercard, Lyoto Machida finally scored a knockout win in the UFC, knocking Thiago Silva out at the bell to end the first round. After clowning Silva in his usual way, Machida twice dropped the undefeated Brazilian and used clever inside trips on other occassions to put Silva on his back. One of these trips ended with Silva in guard and Machida delivered two bombs from a standing position that left Silva unconscious as the buzzer went to end the first round. Referee Yves Lavigne took a few seconds before calling the fight with Silva out on the mat. The win, according to Dana White, will earn Machida a shot at the title should Keith Jardine defeat Rampage Jackson at UFC 96. If Jardine is victorious, Machida will fight Evans for the belt instead.

Young star Jon Jones spoiled Stephan Bonnar’s return to the Octagon with a variety of spinning back kicks, highlight reel takedowns and a spinning elbow which nearly knocked Bonnar out in the 2nd round. Despite a late rally from the TUF1 runner-up, Jones held on for a unanimous decision victory. Karo Parisyan won in his comeback via split decision in an uneventful fight with fellow Judoka Dong Hyun Kim. Clay Guida took out another TUF winner, scoring a split decision over Nate Diaz in a fight that resembled a wrestling match. The times Diaz broke free and used his hands he looked a completely different fighter, even hurting Guida in the third round, but he spent too much time being outwrestled by Guida and was on the wrong end of a close decision.

Full Results
Georges St Pierre TKO4 (corner stoppage) BJ Penn
Lyoto Machida KO1 (punch) Thiago Silva
Jon Jones UD Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan SD Dong Hyun Kim
Clay Guida SD Nate Diaz
Jon Fitch UD Akihiro Gono
Thiago Tavares UD Manny Gamburyan
John Howard SD Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien SD Cristian Wellisch
Dan Cramer SD Matt Arroyo

Quick Predictions- Koscheck v Yoshida, Adamek v Cunningham etc

These are events that really don’t deserve me writing an entire article on them right now seeing that I’m flat out and can’t be bothered, but I’ll at least throw my picks up:

UFC Fight for the Troops
Koscheck vs Yoshida- Koscheck on points
Swick vs Goulet- Swick by 1st round KO
Creduer vs Loughran- Creduer by 2nd round submission
Wiman vs Miller- Wiman on points

Boxing
Tomasz Adamek vs Steve Cunningham- Adamek on points
Kendall Holt vs Demetrius Hopkins- Holt on points
James Toney vs Fres Oquendo- Oquendo on points
Nicolay Valuev vs Evander Holyfield- Valuev by 8th round KO

I’ll still be covering the UFC 92 event, maybe K-1 Dynamite and the Klitschko-Rahman fight in full before the end of the year. Also there’ll be an end of year awards thread going up on New Years Day or January 2nd, depending on how hungover I am.

UFC 90 Results

We saw a mixed bag during the UFC today. While the main event ended unsatisfactorily (although no one is to blame as it was a freak accident), four of the other five fights we saw today were either great battles or had great finishes. The other fight was a good tactical fight but one that left the Illinois crowd and the referee who repeatedly asked both fighters to work. I won’t write the Illinois crowd off as idiots yet because it seems to happen the first time a big MMA show hits a new US state, they’re so pumped up that they boo everything that isn’t Griffin-Bonnar like. One thing that does piss me off though is idiot referees who don’t let the fighters fight. I’m not sure why stand-ups are even in the UFC anymore. They originally came in for two reasons. First reason was Dan Severn who is the Godfather of Lay and Pray, and the second reason is because back in the day when fighters were one dimensional, probably 80% of fighters couldn’t get back to their feet when they got taken down. Then add to that the fact that probably 70% of fighters couldn’t do much on top unless they were fighting a BJJ newbie, it led to some really boring fights. In this day and age, if you’re in the UFC and you can’t get back to your feet you don’t belong there. I still think stand-ups should happen in smaller shows because at lower level MMA you get the same situation that used to happen in the UFC, but in the big show with the best fighters in the World let the fighters fight!

Anderson Silva TKO (injury) 3rd round Patrick Cote
Strange fight. I’m not trying to take anything away from Cote here, but I really think Silva wanted some cage time. If he threw more then 30 strikes a round I’d be surprised. He looked nothing like he did when he took Rich Franklin apart in those two fights and Franklin is a much better fighter then Cote. To Cote’s credit, when Silva did land he took it well. He took a few head kicks and knees that would have floored lesser men. The ending was a little disappointing as Cote blew his knee out in the 3rd round and couldn’t continue. Full credit to him for repeatedly trying to get to his feet and continue, and Anderson Silva is a very classy guy for not jumping on him when he injured himself. The only fight for Silva at 185lbs is Yushin Okami. Okami is clearly the number one contender with wins over Jason McDonald and Evan Tanner as well as the close loss to Rich Franklin. Throw in the fact that Okami is the last man to defeat Silva (even if it was by disqualification in a fight that Silva should have won; I don’t care what the rules say, if you can knock someone out while on your back you deserve the win) and this is a fight that can be marketed. What I’d really like to see happen is for Silva to go up to 205lbs and rule there. Does anyone really think Rashad Evans or Forrest Griffin could hang with The Spider?

Thiago Alves UD Josh Koscheck
Great fight. Alves beat Koscheck up in the first and third rounds but Koscheck made a fight of it. Koscheck is a tough son of a bitch and even though I don’t like him, he deserves props for having a sturdy chin and heart to match it. Alves went to work with his leg kicks and high kicks and stuffed every one of Koschecks takedown attempts. He dropped Koscheck in the first round and had him in a lot of trouble in the third as well. Alves is the logical choice for the next shot at the Welterweight title whether that be against BJ Penn or Georges St Pierre. Whowver wins that super fight on Super Bowl weekend has their hands full with the Pitbull.

Gray Maynard UD3 Rich Clementi
Maynard outwrestled him, it was that simple. Maynard is one of the top lightweights in the UFC and while I think he’ll struggle against some of the better fighters, I think he matches up very evenly with the others based entirely on his wrestling ability. I’d like to see Maynard take on Emerson again if he doesn’t land a big fight, but with BJ Penn possibly staying at 170lbs, a four man tournament over two events would be an exciting way to sort out who the new champion is and I think with his last two wins (over Clementi and Frankie Edgar) he deserves a spot among those four. Throw in Sherk, Nate Diaz and the Florian-Stevenson winner and thats a good four fighters to have compete for the crown if Penn stays at 170lbs.

Junior dos Santos KO 1st round Fabricio Werdum
Wow! Santos shocked the hell out of everyone with that win. Props to anyone who called that and I know there were a few of them but I really didn’t think that Werdum would have much trouble in that fight. Santos is right in the mix now with that victory as Werdum was definately a top contender with his recent form. There’s plenty of good fights for Santos with the likes of Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Heath Herring or Cheick Kongo all matching up well with Santos.

Sean Sherk UD3 Tyson Griffin
I never thought I’d say this about a Sean Sherk fight, but that was fight of the night out of the ones I’ve seen. Sherk took Griffin down a lot easier then I thought he would early on and even took his back twice (although as always, Griffin escaped in the most exciting way possible). In the second and third rounds as I predicted both guys duked it out with Griffin dominating the first part of the round and Sherk outworking him in the last 2-3 minutes and probably pinching the fight there. Griffin’s cardio is good, but Sherk’s is on a whole other level and that was the difference in this fight. Sherk needs to remember that he’s a wrestler more and go for more takedowns because if Griffins cardio was better today he could have been in trouble standing with him when he was taking him down as easily as he was early in the fight.

Thales Leites Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 1st round Drew McFedries
Leites likely earns another submission of the night award with this performance. He used his right leg like a third arm once he took McFedries back (after he passed his guard like he was a white belt) and left McFedries defending with one arm. Then after sliding his free arm under McFedries’ throat, he quickly locked it up and forced the tap. Good to see Leites get his TV spot at the end of the show as well after his original opponent Goran Reljic was injured forcing him off the main card.

Other Results
Pete Sell UD3 Josh Burkman
Hermes Franca UD3 Marcus Aurelio
Spencer Fisher Submission (Triangle Choke) 3rd Round Shannon Gugerty
Dan Miller UD3 Matt Horwich

UFC 90 Predictions

Two UFC events in two weeks, its hard not to like that. The good thing about this weekend is that there’s no big boxing matches to tear my loyalty between the two. The choice has been made for me and even though I have to pay for it, most UFC’s are worth the money. In the main event Anderson Silva takes on Patrick Cote for the UFC Middleweight World Championship. Also on the card are two very important fights which will establish the next contenders Welterweight and Lightweight divisions. Thiago Alves takes on Josh Koscheck in the co main event for the first shot at the BJ Penn-Georges St Pierre winner and former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk makes his comeback against always exciting Tyson Griffin.

Main Card
Patrick Cote vs Anderson Silva
(UFC Middleweight World Championship)
Prediction- Silva by 2nd round submission
This fight could very well end in the first minute with Silva taking Cote out with a huge barrage of punches, but something Cote said makes me think different. Cote basically put the challenge out there when he said that Ricardo Almeida has a better ground game then Silva. Silva is as cocky as they come and may want to make Cote eat his words by submitting him. Either way, I’ll be surprised if this fight goes half the scheduled distance because Silva is that good and Cote isn’t my first choice for a title shot. I am fully aware that it was meant to be Yushin Okami but he broke his hand and couldn’t be ready, but Cote just flat out isn’t ready for this fight. This could get very ugly.

Thiago Alves vs Josh Koscheck
Prediction- Alves by 2nd round knockout
Koscheck steps in for injured Diego Sanchez who was originally meant to fight Alves and therefore makes this a better fight. Koscheck in my opinion should have got this fight ahead of Sanchez because he beat Sanchez last year and has beaten two good fighters since while Sanchez has been given guys that will make him look good. Koscheck should provide a better test then Hughes did for Alves based on a couple of things. First of all, Alves made weight for this fight and won’t have that size advantage that he did last time. Second, Koscheck is a better wrestler then Hughes (although he isn’t as dangerous on top because he hasn’t learnt how to do anything with it yet) and he has better stand-up. Still, I think Alves will be harder to take down then Koscheck is used to, then throw in the fact that Koscheck thinks he can strike and Alves can strike and I can see Alves punishing Koscheck with leg kicks and then knocking him out when he lacks the ability to move out of harms way.

Junior dos Santos vs Fabricio Werdum
Prediction- Werdum by 1st round submission
Like me you’re probably wondering who Santos is. I don’t know a thing about him other then he probably is no match for Werdum and he’ll probably get submitted quickly. With some of the other fights on this card, I won’t bother wasting any time on this one. Hopefully it ends quickly and we get to see one of the better preliminaries.

Tyson Griffin vs Sean Sherk
Prediction- Sherk on Points
This is a very interesting fight. Both guys are wrestlers who have excellent takedowns but both guys also like to throw their punches. This fight will probably turn into an ugly boxing match as their wrestling will cancel each other out. If one of the guys is to get the takedown on the other, I expect it to come from Sherk who I feel has the better wrestling. Sherk has excellent guard passes and could very well win this fight by submission if he gets Griffin on his back long enough. I also give Sherk the edge in the stand-up although it’s close. Griffin has a good variety of punches and this could prove a difference if they do indeed duke it out, but Sherk has good defence standing up and his straighter punches should give him an edge. I think Sherk will win with a combination of takedowns and crisper boxing and probably win rounds two and three easily after a close first round.

Rich Clementi vs Gray Maynard
Prediction- Maynard on points
I’m psyched that this fight is on the main card. The winner of this fight probably moves into the top five Lightweights in the UFC. I give the edge in striking in this fight to Clementi but Maynard’s wrestling should cancel that out. On the ground, I doubt Clementi can really get himself in a position to be able to submit Maynard, and may end up spending the whole fifteen minutes trying to maintain guard while Maynard drops hammerfists and elbows on his head. I doubt Maynard will finish Clementi, but he should overwhelm him on the ground.

Preliminary Card
Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries
Prediction- Leites by 1st round submission
Another late replacement on this card, McFedries replaces Goran Reljic who was meant to fight Leites on the main card. McFedries has a punchers chance and always does because he has enormous power, but his lack of ground game should give Leites an easy submission win and submission of the night if Silva decides to knock Cote out instead of submitting him.

Spencer Fisher vs Shannon Gugerty
Prediction- Fisher by 2nd round knockout
Another replacement here as Gugerty replaced Melvin Guillard and ruined what should have been a good fight as any fight where Guillard loses is always a good fight. Fisher should have too much for Gugerty in all aspects of the game and I don’t expect this fight to go the distance.

Matt Horwich vs Dan Miller
Prediction- Miller by 1st round submission
Miller steps in to replace Ricardo Almeida who was forced off the card with an injury. This is a battle between two IFL veterans, with Miller having competed in the IFL a few times and Horwich having fought most of his career there. I think Miller will make it 2/2 in the UFC after his rear naked choke win over Rob Kimmons at Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer. I don’t think Horwich can avoid the takedown or live with Miller on the ground. Miller by rear naked choke in the first round.

Marcus Aurelio vs Hermes Franca
Prediction- Franca on points
This is a fight I wanted to see! Franca is a BJJ black belt under Aurelio and both of these guys now hate each other. It’s student vs former teacher and the sort of storyline you’d see in a bad martial arts movie but it’s for real. If this fight hits the ground it should be a BJJ war as both guys have excellent guards and like going for submissions and both guys are very good on top as well. I think Franca has the better stand-up of the two and that’s why I’m picking him but it’ll be first to make a mistake who loses on the ground. If either guy locks in a submission, don’t expect the other to tap. This could be a really ugly ending similar to Ryan Gracie on Shungo Oyama (or Mir on Sylvia for all you UFC newbies who haven’t experienced the magic of PRIDE yet).

Josh Burkman vs Pete Sell
Prediction- Burkman on points
Sell has better stand-up and better jiu jitsu but Burkman should nullify that with his excellent wrestling ability. The other big factor in this fight is that Sell always finds a way to lose. He nearly beat Scott Smith and he lost, he nearly beat Nate Quarry in the rematch and he lost. I’d like to see Sell win, but I don’t think he will.