UFC 110 Picks

UFC 110 in Australia takes place tomorrow and with the excitement of attending my first UFC event I’ve left it a bit late to post my picks up. With nothing better to do to kill the remaining 12 or so hours before the first preliminary fight, here’s my picks for tomorrows event:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Pick- Nogueira by 2nd round submission
While I agree that Velasquez is probably the safe pick in this fight, I don’t see any way he can win this fight inside the distance and against a finisher and a survivor like Nogueira that is dangerous. As good as Velasquez is, his game revolves around his wrestling and his explosiveness. His power has appeared overrated in his last three fights with an inability to finish Cheick Kongo despite the numerous advantageous positions and strikes he landed, a controversial stoppage against Ben Rothwell where he again landed numerous strikes that were taken as comfortably as one could take numerous strikes from a 230lb Mexican fighter and a one sided beatdown that went way longer then it should have against Denis Stojnic. Velasquez’s striking is technically below average and his lack of positional knowledge on the ground could get him into trouble against a Jiu Jitsu master like Nogueira.

Nogueira has two big advantages in this fight; boxing and jiu jitsu. Velasquez has proven he can take a punch from a top level MMA striker in the fight with Cheick Kongo, but if he chooses to keep the fight on the feet Nogueira will outbox him en route to a unanimous decision win. If Velasquez decides to use his wrestling to take the fight to the floor, he won’t gain the superior positioning against Nogueira that he has enjoyed in previous fights. I have no doubt that Nogueira could sweep Velasquez as he has swept plenty of good fighters in the past who have solid top games (most notably Fedor Emelianenko although it did him little good). While Nogueira’s pure jiu jitsu isn’t on the absolute elite level, his game is among the best for MMA as he works off his opponents strikes. I think Velasquez will probably be ahead on points early in the fight, but will likely fall victim to one of Nogueira’s chokes during a scramble sometime during the middle of the fight.

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping
Prediction- Silva by 1st round knockout
I honestly think that Bisping is scared of Silva. He’s trying to put on a brave front, but he seems to be reacting to whatever Wanderlei does. At the weigh in he seemed to be comfortable until he had to stare Wanderlei down. This is where Wanderlei is at his best, when he has an opponent who he can intimidate. Bisping’s only real shot in this fight is if Wanderlei’s weight cut severely effects him (he looks a hell of a lot better then he did when he fought Franklin so I assume he’s done it better this time) and then he’d have to employ a hit and run style and win on points. I think Wanderlei’s almost reckless style will overwhelm Bisping and he’ll be able to utilise his clinch game and overall just punish ‘The Count’ until he can’t take anymore. Silva by brutal, one sided knockout.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropolous
Prediction- Stevenson on points
I think the UFC are banking on a big win by George so they can use him as they used Bisping to build shows around him in Australia. I think they will be spoilt as Stevenson’s top game will be a bit too much at this stage of Georges career. If George can keep the fight standing, he’ll punish ‘Daddy’ as Stevenson’s stand-up has always been poor, but Stevenson is a solid wrestler and I believe he’ll win a unanimous, but highly competitive decision while utilising his top game.

Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
Prediction- Jardine on points
Bader is still completing his game and one of the areas he lacks is in the stand-up. Jardine is coming off a big knockout loss and back to back losses, but with the quality wrestlers he has to train with I think he’ll be well prepared for Bader’s takedowns. Bader on the other hand has no one to replicate Jardine’s unorthodox (thats a kind way of putting it) striking style and I think once Jardine gets into a rhythm, Bader will have a hard time getting anything going against him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh
Prediction- Cro Cop by 1st round knockout (hopefully a head kick)
Well most people were disappointed when Ben Rothwell pulled out on Friday, but I sort of wasn’t. Being the old school PRIDE fan that I am I’m sort of hoping to see Nogueira pull of a come from behind submission win, Wanderlei destroy someone and Cro Cop win by head kick knockout. He has a much better chance of knocking out Perosh then he did Rothwell (I’d have picked Rothwell in their fight). Perosh is a UFC veteran, having dropped fights to Jeff Monson and Critian Wellisch and he is a solid ground fighter having competed in Abu Dhabi, but he has been the victim of some knockouts in the past (one of them to James Te-Huna, who fights on the prelims) and I expect nothing different from him here.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Bonnar on points
Bonnar’s a handful when he’s on his game and I think he’ll be on his game tomorrow. It’s a pickem fight I feel and I think he’s due to pull one out.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Foster
Prediction- Foster on points
This fight will be fight of the night. These two live for the war and I expect nothing less. Foster is the less battle hardened of the two, but he brings more physical tools to the fight and thats where I think he wins it.

CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
Prediction- Dollaway on points
It’s been a long wait for the return of Goran, almost two years and I think Dollaway is too much too soon after such a long lay off. Goran looked good when he defeated Gouveia, but I think Dollaway will be hungry for a big win and will grind out a tough decision.

James Te-Huna vs Igor Pokrajac
Prediction- Igor by 1st round submission
I’m not holding out much hope for the Kiwi kickboxer. His ground game is pretty average and Igor is an experienced wrestler and once it hits the ground Te-Huna will be a fish out of water.

Couture vs Nogueira on Aug 29 at UFC 102

The UFC has officially announced it’s main card for the August UFC 102 card in Portland, Oregon and the main event will indeed feature the ‘losers’ bracket of the mini heavyweight tournament with former three time UFC Heavyweight champion Randy Couture set to face former PRIDE Heavyweight champion and former UFC interim Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The fight is one for MMA’s long time fans as both Nogueira and Couture held the PRIDE and UFC titles at the same time back in 2001/2002 before Couture was beaten by Barnett and Nogueira lost his title to Fedor. The fight could give us the next challenger for the division, but then again with contenders like Velasquez and Carwin emerging it may not. Also, with the chances of Lesnar beating Mir we could get the rubber match before we see anyone else challenge for the title.

The co main event is a shocker to me. I thought with the lack of names at 185lbs that the Demian Maia vs Nate Marquadt fight was a certain for co-main event but it was beaten out by Thiago Silva vs Keith Jardine. Really, what does that fight do for the 205lb division? Maia vs Marquadt gives us the next top contender in the division and if Maia wins it as easy as he’s won some of his other fights then all of a sudden there’s a serious threat to Anderson Silva but not a marketable one. If Maia is featured on a countdown show in length, then if he gets the chance to fight for the title his fight is that much easier to market. Regurgitating Keith Jardine and Thiago Silva when they should take their rightful place lower on the card makes little sense.

The Full main card:

Randy Couture vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Keith Jardine vs Thiago Silva
Demian Maia vs Nate Marquadt
Matt Hamill vs Brandon Vera
Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt

UFC 96: Rampage beats Jardine, Carwin KO’s Gonzaga

Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson scored a three round unanimous decision over Keith Jardine in the main event at UFC 96. After Frank Mir pulled out of his main event with Brock Lesnar at UFC 98, Rashad Evans said pre fight that should Rampage defeat Jardine, the two would meet at UFC 98. Rampage started slowly, allowing Jardine to control the tempo of the fight with his awkward style. After a first close round, Rampage attacked Jardine continously in the early goings of the 2nd round, dropping him with a left hook. Jardine scrambled well but ate a few punches and still looked hurt as the fight resumed on their feet after a brief clinch. Rampage then shot in for a successful takedown but again Jardine worked his way back to his feet where he continued to come off 2nd best in the exchanges.

Jardine started well in the 3rd round before again being taken down by Jackson. Jardine showed an underrated (well unseen) ground game as he worked his way back to his feet yet again. With the fight possibly in the balance, Jardine began to use his awkward style to get off first and back Rampage up. Rampage’s strikes became wild towards the end of the round, but with Jardine tiring and his hands below his waist, Rampage dropped Jardine again in the closing seconds of the bout to take any doubt about the decision away. The judges scored the fight 30-27, 29-28 and 29-28 for Rampage, who engaged in some post fight trash talk with UFC light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. In his own words, the fight is going to be ‘some black on black crime.’

I really thought Rampage fought like shit in this fight and I’d be all for Machida getting the first shot while Rampage gets a bit of rest in. Maybe it wasn’t the two fights in three months (that’s what Rampage said he thought it was after the fight) and maybe it was just Jardine making someone else look bad. If Rampage stayed in the pocket more in this fight he would have won it inside the distance no doubt in my opinion. Jardine’s inside game is horrible and that’s where a guy like Wanderlei Silva can take advantage because of his reckless style. Jardine is a nightmare for counter fighters like Liddell and Rampage.

In the main support bout, Shane Carwin knocked Gabriel Gonzaga out in just over a minute with one solid right hand. He didn’t have it all his own way however, as Gonzaga landed a handful of heavy right hands that looked to have Carwin momentarily hurt before he secured a trip takedown. Carwin scrambled well, and got back to his feet and then caught the former challenger for the UFC crown with one right hand that ended Gonzaga’s two fight winning streak. With the win, Carwin moves to 11-0 with all 11 fights ending in the first round. His UFC career moves to 3-0. Gonzaga drops to 10-4 with a 6-3 mark in the UFC. Carwin definately looked beatable but that power is always going to be an equaliser. Even though I think he looked beatable, Gonzaga is arguably the most dangerous fighter in the UFC with his ground skills and punching power and Carwin survived his onslaught. Carwin really is one of the top dogs in the division now and I’d love to see him in there with another top heavyweight ASAP.

Other Results
Matt Brown KO1 Pete Sell
Matt Hammill KO1 Mark Munoz
Gray Maynard Pts Jim Miller
Kendall Grove KO1 Jason Day
Tamdan McCrory TKO1 Ryan Madigan
Jason Brilz Pts Tim Boetsch
Brandon Vera KO2 Mike Patt
Shane Nelson KO1 Aaron Riley

UFC 96 Predictions

Another UFC card takes place this weekend (making it the fourth this year so far in just over two months, don’t think I’m complaining though) and while some of you bitches out there think this card is shit, I completely disagree. While the main event is no St-Pierre vs Penn, the main card consists of four well matched fights and a typical Matt Hammill fight (why is this guy on the main card again?).
In the main event, former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson takes on the always unpredictable Keith Jardine over three rounds. For Rampage, a win should secure him a title shot against Rashad Evans probably in August or September of this year (a loss would mean we have an extra six months of Lyoto Machida as champion). For Jardine, if he wins he’ll probably get a big rematch with Liddell should he beat Shogun or he’ll be fed to whichever Light Heavyweight Joe Silva thinks needs a big win again. So even though the main event isn’t a big fight in the big picture of both fighters careers, it’s still a very good matchup and one that will be very interesting to see how it unfolds.
The undercard sees Heavyweight prospect Shane Carwin’s first real test as he takes on Gabriel Gonzaga in what will be a match between two of the games most powerful fighters. Both of these guys are massive and have huge power in their strikes as well as excellent ground games (although we’re yet to see Carwin fight off his back). Also an interesting Lightweight clash with two of the UFC’s middle tier 155lbers looking to move into the big time with Gray Maynard taking on Jim Miller. The other fight sees two fighters who fight with their hearts on their sleeves in Pete Sell and Matt Brown clashing in what is the favourite to take out fight of the night honours and while I’d rather see Jason Day vs Kendall Grove, I’ll make do with watching another shitty Matt Hammill vs ‘some guy with wrestling background and no striking so Hammill is at no risk of losing’ fight.

Main Card
Rampge Jackson vs Keith Jardine
Prediction- Rampage by 1st round KO
Rampage is by far the more dangerous fighter. Jardine is awkward with his movement and has some heavy leg kicks but Jackson’s counter punching style I think will suit a fighter like Jardine who strikes from awkward angles and has a lot of unorthodox ways of moving after he throws his shots. I think Rampage will catch him with a big strike during an exchange and hurt ‘the Dean of Mean’ and then finish him with strikes on the ground.

Shane Carwin vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Prediction- Gonzaga by 2nd round KO
Carwin is still very green and unless he puts a hurting on Gonzaga early I think he’ll be forced to fight at a competitive pace and his body won’t be used to it. This isn’t to say I don’t think Carwin has what it takes because he’s an excellent prospect but I think Gonzaga is a step too far at this stage. The only thing that concerns me with ‘Napao’ is his tendancy to fold when he is put under good pressure but I think he’ll make Carwin fight harder in areas he isn’t used to fighting in (like the clinch) for extended periods of time and wear the bigger man out before knocking him out in the 2nd round.

Matt Brown vs Pete Sell
Prediction- Brown by 2nd round KO
The first round of this fight should be a slugfest. Sell could make things easy and try to take the fight to the ground where his BJJ black belt gives him a big advantage but he won’t. He’ll get drawn into Brown’s fight and end up trading with Brown who fights like a savage dog and Brown will prove to have too much firepower over the course of the fight.

Gray Maynard vs Jim Miller
Prediction- Maynard on points 
On paper, this is probably the most interesting matchup in terms of styles on the card. Both guys have average hands but Maynard is one of the top Lightweights when it comes to wrestling and Miller is one of the best when it comes to Jiu Jitsu. However, these type of fights often end up being really average kickboxing battles and in that department I give an edge to Maynard. Miller is a southpaw so if he’s forced to stand up he might give Maynard, who is still a very inexperienced striker, a lot of problems. Maynard though will have the choice where this fight goes and I think he might avoid Millers ground arsenal and try his luck on his feet. Could be painful but if it hits the mat it might be more entertaining then Brown vs Sell. Still, Maynard has the wrestling to control Miller on the ground and probably the better stand-up skills if he wants to stay up. It’ll be close but I think Maynard will edge him by split decision.

Matt Hammill vs Mike Munoz
Prediction- Hammill by 2nd round KO
As I said, typical matchup for Hammill who needs more babying. Munoz is a collegiate wrestler up against one of the top wrestlers in the game. Hammill gets repeated takedowns that he doesn’t set up with his below average boxing skills and clubs his way to an ugly stoppage win yet again and fails to impress me yet again.

As for the rest, I couldn’t be fucked going into them, but here’s my picks.

Preliminaries
Jason Day vs Kendall Grove
Prediction- Day by 2nd round KO

Ryan Madigan vs Tamdan McCrory 
Prediction- McCrory by 2nd round submission

Tim Boetsch vs Jason Brilz
Prediction- Brilz on points

Mike Patt vs Brandon Vera
Prediction- Vera by 1st round KO

Shane Nelson vs Aaron Riley
Prediction- Riley on points