UFC 101 Predictions/Site Update

Apologies for the lack of, well, anything this month so far. I’ve been extremely busy and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I’ll still be covering the big events as much as possible and I’ll do a recap of anything recent in those.

Now, Fedor…. I think it could have been a lot worse (Fedor signed with Strikeforce, not the UFC) but I’d definately have preferred him in the UFC. Overeem has the potential to be a challenge although I think he gets submitted once it goes to the ground. Rogers probably has the best chance but I think he’ll also be taken out once it hits the ground and Werdum will probably go the distance while in survival mode with Fedor not risking going to the ground with him. Some Indian fighter won the K-1 qualifier and will be making up the numbers at the Final 16. Manhoef and Lazceno will take part in this weekends qualifier. That’s about it off the top of my head.

UFC 101 now and it’s a ripper of a card with two quality lead fights and three good fights supporting it. I think Florian has a real chance in this fight. His thai boxing skills are something Penn hasn’t come across and his BJJ is also good although I think Florian will want to avoid fighting from his back. If this fight goes past the 2nd round I think Florian can pull it out, but I think Penn will win the fight mainly through heavy right hands on the feet and ground and pound once he gets on top. Florian will be game but I think Penn stops him in the 2nd or 3rd from either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.

Silva-Griffin is also an interesting fight. Griffin is a big guy with an excellent workrate and heavy kicks. His boxing sucks as he arm punches and slaps a lot and doesn’t do much damage and contrary to popular belief his chin isn’t good although he’s extremely durable to constant punishment as long as the guy isn’t a world class striker. Silva unfortunately is and he’s also extremely fast. I think this will be a blowout with Silva doing a number on Griffin in the first two minutes. It’ll be really interesting if the fight goes past the first round how Silva handles someone like Griffin pushing the pace on him.

Full picks: Penn by 3rd round sub
Silva by 1st round KO
Grove on points
Sadollah by 2nd round KO
Pellegrino on points
Leites by 1st round sub
Riley on points
McCrory on points
Sotiropolous by 2nd round sub
Riddle on points
Lennox by 1st round KO

UFC 101: Penn vs Florian, Griffin vs Silva

Most MMA fans knew anyway, but the two main fights for UFC 101 in Philadelphia on August 8th were going to be the Lightweight Championship match between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian as well as an intriguing Light Heavyweight clash between former champion Forrest Griffin and Thiago Silva. The UFC officially announced the signing of both fights, and it was only then did it come as a surprise that it wouldn’t be Thiago Silva that Griffin would face, but instead Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva would again venture up to the 205lb ranks to this time take on one of the top fighters.

Forrest Griffin vs Anderson Silva is one hell of a matchup. The two things that Griffin bring are his size and his workrate and I’m curious to see how Anderson deals with it. The way I think he’ll deal with it is by knocking Griffin out in the first round of the fight, but what if he doesn’t? I’m expecting Silva to rise to the occasion as he has done in the past when presented with a serious challenge (and no, Patrick Cote and Thales Leites weren’t serious challenges for Silva) like when he fought Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson. The fact remains that Griffin is a big dude with good skills and his cardio is probably second to none, and should be not be slaughtered in the opening moments of this fight he could smother Silva with his workrate as he’s done to opponents before.

As for the title clash, I just hope Penn is in shape because if he isn’t he’s going to be in for a rude awakening. I think one of two things are going to happen in this fight. Either Penn has not mentally recovered from the loss to St Pierre and will train poorly as he’s done in the past and take a beating from Florian or he’ll be extra motivated for this fight in which case I see him winning but by late stoppage or submission after a tough fight with Florian. I really hope he trains hard for this one because him and Florian will be a dynamic matchup between two well rounded fighters which could end up being the war that Penn had with Pulver in their first fight.

One other note, it appears that Keith Jardine will instead face Thiago Silva, but at UFC 102 later in August which is likely to be headlined by Nogueira vs Couture.

St Pierre batters Penn at UFC 94

Georges St Pierre defended his UFC Welterweight Championship on Sunday with a 4th round TKO win over BJ Penn after Penn didn’t answer the bell for the 5th and final round. The win was the second successful defence of th title for St Pierre, who took it from Matt Serra at UFC 83 last year with a 2nd round TKO win. The win sets up a fight between St Pierre and number one contender Thiago Alves who is coming off victories over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last two outings. The loss also likely sets up a fight between BJ Penn, who holds the UFC Lightweight title, and number one Lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

The fighters clinched up quickly after the opening round began and St Pierre tried for the entire round to take Penn down but with no success. The fighters seperated a few times with Penn landing a hard right hand on one occassion and St Pierre landing a solid right of his own on another. The round proved to be the tactical battle many anticipated and St Pierre probably won due to his aggression. Round two was a completely different story though. St Pierre again shot in for a single leg takedown and this time managed to get Penn on his back. Working from inside Penn’s rubber guard and butterfly guard, St Pierre worked Penn over with elbows and punches while looking to pass guard. The times he managed to get to side control, Penn used freakish escapes to get back to guard but that was all he was able to do as St Pierre won the second round big.

Penn looked like the minutes rest between the second and third round did him not good as he appeared sluggish at the start of the third round. St Pierre landed solid jabs and a devastating leg kick with little attempt at defence from the former Welterweight Champion before St Pierre again took Penn to the ground. Despite being able to pass Penn’s guard more in this round, St Pierre’s offence wasn’t as dominating as in the previous round. Still, the round ended with St Pierre on top working Penn over with strikes. Penn looked even more tired at the start of the 4th and after eating several punches and leg kicks, he found himself in the familiar position of being on his back. St Pierre’s confidence was growing as he often attempted to mount Penn with little regard for the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champions guard. Midway through the round St Pierre landed his most damaging strikes of the round and after referee Herb Dean asked for Penn to fight back, ‘GSP’ turned it up. St Pierre proceeded to punish Penn with devastating punches from on top and was probably only a few seconds away from stopping Penn when the round ended.

A frustrated looking St Pierre walked back to his corner and a physically beaten Penn staggered back to his. In the corner the doctor and referee both examined Penn before JD Penn, BJ’s brother and manager told the doctor he wanted to stop the fight and awarded St Pierre with the TKO victory. The win brings St Pierre’s record to 18-2 with only five fights going the distance. Penn’s record drops to 13-5 and likely puts an end to Penn’s aspirations of winning titles in every weight division. With Thiago Alves likely next on the French-Canadian’s plate, a possible mega fight with Anderson Silva will have to wait. That fight would pit, in my opinion anyway, the two top pound for pound fighters in MMA against each other.

On the undercard, Lyoto Machida finally scored a knockout win in the UFC, knocking Thiago Silva out at the bell to end the first round. After clowning Silva in his usual way, Machida twice dropped the undefeated Brazilian and used clever inside trips on other occassions to put Silva on his back. One of these trips ended with Silva in guard and Machida delivered two bombs from a standing position that left Silva unconscious as the buzzer went to end the first round. Referee Yves Lavigne took a few seconds before calling the fight with Silva out on the mat. The win, according to Dana White, will earn Machida a shot at the title should Keith Jardine defeat Rampage Jackson at UFC 96. If Jardine is victorious, Machida will fight Evans for the belt instead.

Young star Jon Jones spoiled Stephan Bonnar’s return to the Octagon with a variety of spinning back kicks, highlight reel takedowns and a spinning elbow which nearly knocked Bonnar out in the 2nd round. Despite a late rally from the TUF1 runner-up, Jones held on for a unanimous decision victory. Karo Parisyan won in his comeback via split decision in an uneventful fight with fellow Judoka Dong Hyun Kim. Clay Guida took out another TUF winner, scoring a split decision over Nate Diaz in a fight that resembled a wrestling match. The times Diaz broke free and used his hands he looked a completely different fighter, even hurting Guida in the third round, but he spent too much time being outwrestled by Guida and was on the wrong end of a close decision.

Full Results
Georges St Pierre TKO4 (corner stoppage) BJ Penn
Lyoto Machida KO1 (punch) Thiago Silva
Jon Jones UD Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan SD Dong Hyun Kim
Clay Guida SD Nate Diaz
Jon Fitch UD Akihiro Gono
Thiago Tavares UD Manny Gamburyan
John Howard SD Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien SD Cristian Wellisch
Dan Cramer SD Matt Arroyo

UFC 91: Lesnar defeats Couture, Florian whips Stevenson

I’ve put this off a bit, First of all I was busy and it was hard to get on here and write this up (mainly because Main Event are cocksuckers and put the fight on a working day so I only saw it yesterday and since then I’ve worked 16 of the last 36 hours and out of the other 20 I’ve slept eight, driven to and from work for about two, trained four which leaves six hours that doesn’t include eating, showering and jacking off (about a 1-1-4 ratio there)) and secondly I wasn’t exactly eager to get on here and write about how one of my most unfavourite fighters of all-time knocked out my favourite fighter who is still alive.

Brock Lesnar 2nd round knockout Randy Couture
Basically Lesnar proved what Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga should have but couldn’t do after Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez did a few years back, and that is that Randy Couture doesn’t belong at heavyweight. Couture’s a freak and a legendary fighter and like all legendary fighters weight doesn’t play as much of an impact as it should with guys like this, but there’s only so much you can give away before it becomes a factor. When you’ve got a 60lb weight disadvantage against a guy who comes from the same background as you, all of a sudden those mistakess you make with your stand-up and submission games need to not be there and that’s where Couture lost this fight. If Couture was better at jiu jitsu he would have taken Lesnar’s back in the scramble in the first round and likely choked him out and if his stand-up was better he would have taken a few more of the many many many openings Lesnar leaves in his stand-up and likely knocked him out. I thought Couture had those parts of his game up to the level where he could take advantage of those, but with 60lbs of weight against him it made those advantages he had over Brock that bit more even.
Despite the win, I’m not sold on Lesnar that much. He has a good one two and throws good knees (it was a knee that hurt Couture about 5 seconds before the right hand that dropped him) and is a big strong guy who will take people down who don’t have good wrestling, but he reminds me of Tito Ortiz at Light Heavyweight when he was dominating. As soon as someone has a good enough skill set with the style matchup to take some of Brocks physical advantages away they’ll beat him. If Nogueira isn’t too shopworn to beat Mir then I can’t see what Brock can do with him. I’d pick Gonzaga to tear Lesnar apart within five minutes if he shows the form he did in that fight. Don’t even get me started on what the Affliction trio (Fedor, Barnett and Arlovski) would do to that guy. Lesnar has way too many weaknesses to deal with a big man with good skills. That was the first time we’d seen him try and outwrestle someone who can wrestle and even with the extra weight, his takedowns were easily stuffed (except for one) by Couture and if Couture had the extra lbs on his frame, the fight wouldn’t have been a contest. Brock to be beaten within a year; within one defence if Nogueira isn’t upset by Mir.

Now onto the rest of the card, which quite frankly was top notch.

Kenny Florian 1st round submission (Rear Naked Choke) Joe Stevenson
And what a rear naked choke it was! Florian totally dominated the fight and proved beyond all doubts that first of all he is a better fighter then he was when Sean Sherk manhandled him two years ago, and secondly that he is the top contender to BJ Penns crown should Penn stay at 155lbs. I don’t think Florian will hang with Penn, but he could make a competitive fight out of it. Who knows as well, we haven’t seen Penn in a hard fight at 155lbs since the rematch with Caol Uno at UFC 39 so we’re still not sure how good Penn’s cardio is; if Florian doesnt get blown away early he could make it interesting.

Dustin Hazelett 1st round submission (Crazy Armbar/Omoplata thing) Tamdan McCrory
That was just sick in both the figurative and literal translations. If anyone just watched the main event or for what ever reason hasn’t seen this, go and see it. The only other thing that needs to be said about this fight is that Hazelett has the best bumfluff beard I’ve ever seen.

Gabriel Gonzaga 1st round knockout Josh Hendricks
Time for Gonzaga to have his competition stepped up I think. Cheick Kongo would be the perfect opponent for Gonzaga to put himself right back into the mix against, either him or Junior dos Santos. Hendricks should be fighting the likes of Eddie Sanchez and they should be fighting in a small venue in Redneckville for a $50 winner takes all purse.

Demian Maia 1st round submission (Rear Naked Choke) Nate Quarry
Glad I was wrong here. Maia is a beast on the ground, that half guard sweep was beautiful and Quarry didn’t have an answer for him once he got on top. Actually, I don’t think there’s a middleweight out there who would have an answer for this guy on top of him. He’s one of those rare talents in MMA who can make anyone’s guard seem non existant. Put this guy in with Okami or Bisping or anyone else near the top of the middleweight picture because he’s ready.

Other Results
Jeremy Stephens 3rd round knockout Rafael dos Anjos
Aaron Riley UD3 Jorge Gurgel
Mark Bocek 3rd round submission Alvin Robinson
Matt Brown 2nd round submission Ryan Thomas

UFC 91 Undercard Predictions

This weekend sees probably the biggest UFC card of the year (so far anyway, UFC 92 has it well covered as long as the fights stay the same). Despite Foxtel showing a few live boxing matches on this Sunday and the UFC on the next morning (no, it wasn’t because of the boxing, it was because they had to replay Andre fucking Rieu’s fucking pansy arse concert, honestly the only PPV that would be worth buying with him in it is if they chose him to be Fedor’s freak matchup on New Years Eve!), this card is that big that I will be isolating myself from everything including the Jeff Lacy-Jermain Taylor clash on Sunday in order to be able to watch this fight without having anything spoilt. With the main event being of the magnitude that it is, I’ll do a seperate post later in the week for that fight. As for now, here’s the undercard. I’m hoping my recent form with boxing predictions is going to translate into this UFC card.

Main Card
Kenny Florian vs Joe Stevenson
Prediction- Florian on points
This is a good fight. Both guys have excellent ground games but the big difference between the two of them is that Florian is also a very dangerous striker. Stevenson has decent technique with his hands as far as Jiu Jitsu guys go, but he doesn’t have the sharp punching or the well rounded striking game that Florian has and I think this will be the deciding factor in what should be a close fight. However, I do give Stevenson the edge on the ground and I think he could submit Florian if the fight hits the ground. The fight is bound to be close and while it won’t have the anticipation of the main event, it could very well be fight of the night. Florian to take a close, but unanimous decision after he wins the stand-up battle after a stalemate on the ground.

Nick Cantone vs Amir Sadollah
Prediction- Sadollah by 2nd round knockout
I can’t see the UFC putting their TUF 7 champion who has only had a couple of professional fights (is it 1 or 2?) in against anyone too dangerous first up. This will probably be a fight to showcase Sadollah to the Pay Per View audience and I expect Sadollah to use his body kicks and knees to the head to systematically break Cantone down before knocking him out. However, I know fuck all about Cantone and I’m basing this off absolutely nothing other then me thinking the UFC won’t risk Sadollah against anyone too good.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Josh Hendricks
Prediction- Gonzaga by 1st round knockout
The second mismatch on the main card. Gonzaga is on his way back after those back to back losses and looked the business against an overmatched opponent last time out. Expect the same here. Gonzaga will take him down, pass his guard and elbow his face into mince meat before the referee stops the fight.

Demian Maia vs Nate Quarry
Prediction- Quarry on points
There is a very good chance that I score one out of five on the main card and this is very much a gamble. The safe money is with Maia who is on a tear right now while Quarry is never overly impressive. However, I think with Quarry’s previous experience training at team Quest with the likes of Randy Couture, Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland, his takedown defence is likely to be very good. I think he’ll force Maia to fight him standing up and pepper him with shots en route to a unanimous decision. It’d be much better for the division though if Maia submits him quickly as we’ll then have someone for Anderson Silva to fight.

Preliminaries
Dustin Hazelett vs Tamdan McCrory
Prediction- Hazelett on points
This is an interesting fight, but one I think Hazelett should win easily if he fights the right fight. I think McCrory will be tentative about taking Hazelett down early, but when he starts havig trouble with Hazeletts lanky frame and decent boxing skills he’ll try his luck in “McLovin’s” guard. Hazelett has excellent sweeps and submissions from his back and I think he’ll end up on top in each round and bust up McCrory en route to a shutout decision.

Jorge Gurgel vs Aaron Riley
Prediction- Gurgel on points
This could be a war as well. Both of these guys are as tough as they come (Gurgel especially who is rarely in a dull fight) and I think they’ll put on a show. Hopefully Gurgel fights like he should and take Riley down and actually uses strikes when he gets a dominant position. However, I think he’ll duke it out and it’ll be a harder fight then it needs to be, but Gurgel will prove that bit better in all aspects. Gurgel should definately avoid going to his back against Riley, anywhere else and he should be in control of whats going on.

Rafael dos Anjos vs Jeremy Stephens
Prediction- Stephens on points
Anjos is a Gracie Jiu Jitsu student who boasts a 11-2 record making his UFC debut. I think Stephens is probably a bit too much for him first up and he’ll expose Anjos’ lack of stand-up and win a boring unanimous decision.

Mark Bocek vs Alvin Robinson
Prediction- Robinson by 1st round submission
This will be my pick for submission of the night. Both guys are good Jiu Jitsu practioners, but Robinson being a Royce Gracie black belt has the edge. Boceks best chance is to keep this up, but I think even doing that he won’t be able to avoid going to the ground. Robinson to finish Bocek quickly with a rear naked choke.

Matt Brown vs Ryan Thomas
Prediction- Brown by 2nd round knockout
Brown steps in to replace fellow TUF7 veteran Matthew Riddle on short notice. That shouldn’t make a difference however as I think Brown will just overwhelm Thomas and pound him out in the 2nd round after a near 10-8 first round. Brown is simply just too powerful.