Writing elsewhere

Since no one really reads this anyway and I couldn’t be bothered trying to drum up interest I don’t know why I’m even bothering putting this up, but this site won’t be used anymore and I’ll be writing over at www.theroar.com.au now. Any followers from here can read my stuff there.

UFC 129 Predictions

I’ve had some computer issues hence the lack of posts in the last week but there’s no better card to come back to then this one. Without a doubt this is the most stacked card of the year so far with two title fights as well as two fights with a lot of divisional significance behind them and a fun undercard (except for Matyushenko-Brilz) and it’s being held in front of 55,000 Canadian fans. In the main event Georges St Pierre takes on EliteXC Welterweight champion and Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields for the UFC Welterweight championship. St Pierre makes his sixth defence of the title he took from Matt Serra and looks to break a drought of decision wins which has gone back to January 2009! Shields was on a tear in the smaller shows, defeating Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and then upsetting Dan Henderson before signing with the UFC. He edged Martin Kampmann out at UFC 121 in October to earn the shot but has also defeated the likes of Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami in what is now a 15 fight win streak.

Co featuring see’s the first UFC Featherweight championship fight with reigning champion Jose Aldo defending against Canadian Mark Hominick. Aldo was the reigning WEC champion, technically making his third defence of the title having previously defended against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. Hominick is a former UFC fighter, competing at lightweight where he went 2-0 (beating Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel) before dropping to featherweight and the WEC. Hominick is riding a five fight win streak that saw him somehow get a split decision over Leonard Garcia and knock out George Roop at UFC Fight for the Troops in January. Also on the card UFC hall of famer Randy Couture will fight former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson makes his UFC debut against up and comer Mark Bocek.

Georges St Pierre vs Jake Shields
(UFC Welterweight Championship)
Prediction- St Pierre by third round stoppage
I really don’t like Shields at welterweight. I think the weight cut hurts him too much and his cardio is shit at this weight. He looks so much better at 185 where he can grind on an opponent for five rounds like he did to Henderson and Miller. I thought Shields looked ordinary against Martin Kampmann (to the point where I scored the fight to Kampmann) and had the Dane fought a smarter fight (ie not trying to guillotine someone with those sort of grappling credentials every chance he had and giving up takedowns to do it instead of just sprawling and using his superior striking) he would have won easily. I don’t think Shields will get St Pierre down and if he does I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him there long enough to set up a submission. He’ll be forced to fight GSP in a stand-up battle and his stand-up quite frankly is poo and his chin is suspect. St Pierre will outwork him, Shields will gas and GSP will get his first stoppage win since BJ Penn.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
(UFC Featherweight Championship)
Prediction- Aldo on points
Hominick is one of the few guys who will offer Aldo a test on the feet. He’s a world class kickboxer and while his power isn’t overly devastating it’s solid and he’s technically sound. I just think that Aldo will be too quick and explosive. He’ll control the pace, keep the fight on the outside where he can land his jab and his leg kicks and I don’t see him leaving his comfort zone to try and take Hominick to the ground to get the finish. Hominick will last because he’s tough, and he might even make a round or two close but Aldo will be too quick, too confident and too good and will win by a wide margin.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Machida by second round knockout
(knockout of the night pick)
I’d be more confident in Couture if I’d seen him fight at a decent level in the last 12-18 months. He hasn’t had a proper test since Brandon Vera in November 2009 and he struggled in that fight with Vera’s takedown defence and muay thai skills. Machida’s movement and unorthodox striking I think will work well against Couture’s attempts to tie him up and his takedown defence is very strong. The thing that worries me for Randy is I think his resistance to punishment has dropped significantly. Coleman rocked him with a right hand briefly in their fight, Vera dropped him with a body kick and was hurting him with knees to the body and Nogueira dropped him twice and I don’t think any of those guys have the power that Machida does (even Nogueira who is 30-40lb heavier). Machida’s style works well against guys who can’t beat him standing. Couture might get him to the fence where he can use his inside game and punish Machida from the single collar tie with elbows and uppercuts, but I think he’ll take too much coming in and Machida will eventually knock him out.

Jason Brilz vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Prediction- Brilz on points
Why this fight is on the main card is beyond me. It’ll be a clinch fest with very little striking and I think Brilz has the more well rounded game and will win a snoozer.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
(fight of the night pick)
Henderson’s wrestling and striking will get him the decision but I see him having to get out of multiple submission attempts from Bocek who has one of the nastiest submission games at 155lbs. This fight should be high tempo with good scrambles on the ground and while they probably won’t be the most technical punch exchanges on the feet, they should be fun. I think Henderson’s hips and ability to stay on top will get him the edge in most rounds. It should be close and it should be very entertaining.

Preliminaries
Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald
Prediction- Diaz by third round submission
(submission of the night pick)
I won’t rule MacDonald out completely in this fight but I don’t think he has the strength to dominate Diaz on the floor or the experience to get out of submissions. He’ll do well early but Diaz’s technical advantages will take over and he’ll pick MacDonald apart on the feet and punish him there before catching him in something late.

Jake Ellenberger vs Sean Pierson
Prediction- Ellenberger on points
I admittedly have only seen Pierson once, but Ellenberger seems to have the advantage here being the better credentialled wrestler. Plus I feel he’ll have something to prove after an average showing against Rocha in his last fight.

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts
Prediction- Patrick by first round submission
Another fight I’m very much looking forward to. Both guys have sneaky submission games and a good deal of smaller show experience behind them. I like Patrick and have been a fan for a while and I think he’ll deliver in front of his hometown fans and he’ll catch Roberts early with a submission. The longer the fight goes the better Roberts will do but I think he gets caught dry by the more experienced fighter.

Ivan Menjivar vs Charles Valencia
Prediction- Valencia on points
Menjivar’s game is a little out of date in my opinion. He’s a tough guy and he’s given some good fighters hard fights over the years but Valencia has been more consistent lately, even if his game isn’t top shelf. Loser goes home I think, and the winner gets fed to an up and comer.

Ryan Jensen vs Jason MacDonald
Prediction- MacDonald by second round submission
Jensen is always entertaining. His fights never go the distance and I don’t think this one will either. MacDonald gets another crack at keeping his UFC career alive and I think he drew a good matchup. Jensen has a habbit of getting himself caught in armbars and chokes in fights his winning and I think this one goes the same way.

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson
Prediction- Watson by first round submission
Makdessi is an interesting prospect ith a background in taekwondo and karate. He’s gone 8-0 and while I’ve only seen his last fight, I think Kyle Watson is a step up for him. Watson has good takedowns and solid top control and submissions. He’s patient and makes few mistakes and I think he’ll get Makdessi down and show up the Canadian as having a lack of ground game. It’s a good test for a striking prospect, but it’ll have to be put don to a learning curve I think.

Pablo Garza vs Yves Jabouin
Prediction- Garza by first round submission
For those of you who don’t know Garza, he was one of the better guys on the TUF GSP vs Koscheck show. The trouble was he drew eventual runner-up Michael Johnson in the first round of fights by hard fought decision and didn’t end up on the show. He won by brutal knockout on the finale and Jabouin won’t be able to handle him. His submissions are nasty and his stand-up is explosive. He’ll struggle with the wrestlers but a fight like this is made for him.

UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun; why Shogun shouldn’t be ruled out

UFC 104 is now just a few hours away and despite any lack of depth to the card, the main event gives an almost boxing-like feel to the card with the magnitude of the fight. I write this article mainly because of the lack of a chance people seem to be giving Shogun to win. Having seen a lot of Shogun’s MMA career, I know for a fact that he stands an excellent chance and while I think he’ll have to fight a near perfect fight to win this fight, I honestly think he will win it. No one is invincible and that includes Lyoto Machida and I feel style wise that Shogun has the best chance to win this fight and here’s why:

Muay Thai
Shogun brings something that is yet to be seen by Machida in his MMA career in terms of Shogun’s excellent Thai Boxing skills. Shogun is the stereotypical Muay Thai fighter in that his knees and kicks are far better then his hands (don’t let the Liddell left hook KO fool you, that was set up with the numerous leg kicks he had landed earlier in the round). Leg kicks, if properly utilised, will be a big factor in this fight for the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix champion as Machida relies heavily on his foot speed to work the unorthodox angles that he uses to avoid strikes. If Shogun finds a home for a few well placed low kicks early in the fight, Machida’s foot speed should slow allowing for Shogun to work his top level clinch game and takedowns as well as being able to better capitilise on Machida’s hands down approach. With his legs unable to move him out of range at the speed he likes, fighting with his hands down will be a dangerous approach and something that history in combat sports has told us is that the fighters with the better defensive game are usually over compensating for a weaker chin.

Foot Speed
Machida’s uncanny agility for a man of his size is what has given everyone he’s faced problems in their fights. Shogun’s foot speed was also legendary back in his PRIDE days where he could trap even the most fleet footed opponents up against the ropes. The difference here is the size of the UFC Octagon and the PRIDE ring aren’t even comparable. However, a recent quote from Shogun says that he is now comfortable with the Octagon size and has altered his game to adjust to the larger fighting surface. I think with Shogun’s mobility he’ll be able to cut the distance quicker then anyone Machida has faced and land those leg kicks or get that clinch where he can do damage to Machida.

Conditioning/Durability
Machida is used to fighting at the pace he likes to fight at. I really think he has to get Shogun out of there in the first two or three rounds if he wants to win this fight because of the pace Shogun sets. Shogun set a world class pace in his glory days in PRIDE and either he’s going to get caught early or his pace will wear on Machida. Apart from the odd hiccup in his fights, Machida has fought his entire career at the pace he wants to and has never been through a long war into the late rounds. Shogun sinks opponents with the pace he sets as he is relentless and as soon as they slow down a little bit he becomes overwhelming. With so many questions being asked about his conditioning due to the Coleman and Griffin fights, the question people should also be asking is what happens if Shogun is in shape (which considering the magnitude of the fight is the more likely scenario) and he gets Machida into a dog fight that lasts past the 2nd or 3rd round? Shogun has been into the late rounds in tough fights, Machida hasn’t. Can Machida handle the pace if he’s actually pushed? Shogun also has a solid chin and while Machida is an excellent puncher, I think he’ll have to batter the former Chute Boxe member in order to finish him.

Ground Game
Most noted for his Muay Thai game, people who watched Shogun in his PRIDE days know that the best aspect of his game is probably his ground game. Shogun’s top game is as dangerous as anyone due to his unorthodox ways of striking from the guard as well as his escapes from the bottom (something UFC fans would have seen against both Coleman and Griffin) and his submissions, in particular his leg locks, are deadly. Should this fight hit the ground you’d have to give Shogun a huge advantage. While Machida is a black belt himself and has won by submission, I really don’t think his ground game is at the level of Shoguns and considering the fight is unlikely to hit the ground unless Shogun has enforced his game on Machida somewhat. In that case I think a tired Machida will struggle to deal with a fired up Shogun on top of him.

In saying that…..
There’s a lot that has to go right for Shogun to win this fight. Machida’s hands are far superior and he’ll be the crisper fighter early on in this fight. Plus we really don’t know how good Shogun is off the back of a knockout win over a (seemingly) over the hill Chuck Liddell (to be fair to Liddell, all of his KO losses have come to guys who have gone on to be UFC champions). The last two times Shogun has been into the late rounds he has struggled with his fitness and it even cost him in his fight with Forrest Griffin. But with this being the biggest fight of Shogun’s career, you have to assume it will be the best Shogun we’ve seen and for those of you who have seen what he was capable of in his 2005 run to win the PRIDE Grand Prix you’d all know that this guy is a serious threat. All these so called experts on some of the sites have written Shogun off because Machida is the more hyped fighter of the moment and has looked unbeatable and have even gone to the extremes to say this is a meaningless title defence. To them I say, do your homework, learn the history of the sport and don’t go jumping on every bandwagon that comes along. As a long-time Shogun fan, I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Mauricio Shogun will win by 4th round TKO after kicking Machida’s legs out early and imposing his deadly clinch and top game on him in the later rounds.

Rampage and Evans to coach TUF10, Shogun-Machida likely in September

A bit of news out of this week. Top Light Heavyweight contender and former UFC Champion Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson will coach the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter alongside Rashad Evans, not Lyoto Machida. Evans and Rampage will coach the season which culminates with the Finale in early December before likely meeting for the number one contender slot and a title shot early next year on the end of the year show. The champion they will be facing will be decided in a September fight between champion Machida and probably 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua.

I know a lot of people are bitching about this as they wanted to see Machida-Jackson first, but I’m not tha pissed off about the whole situation. Evans vs Rampage seems to be a good feud that’s going in an exciting direction after their confrontation at UFC 96 and a coaching stint on TUF could be a good way to throw fuel on the fire. Plus I’d like to see Rampage coming off the back of a solid win (assuming he beats Evans) instead of a layoff when going to face Machida. The other good thing about this is that the belt won’t be held up for TUF’s sake like has happened in the past. We get a title fight, plus two of the top fighters in the game coaching. Basically I think this is the best solution right now.

The thing that has pissed people off is that Shogun is getting a title shot. People still don’t realise how good this guy is/was. Sure he looked like shit against Griffin and Coleman, but that was on the back of layoffs and injuries. His performance against Liddell surely erased some of those doubts? Only Rampage and Rashad have done that to Liddell, and it’s one of those guys everyone wants to see in there with Machida. Throw in Shogun’s one sided brutalisation of Rampage in 2005 and this guy is as serious a contender as you can get right now. Shogun on top form in my opinion starts favourite over anyone at Light Heavyweight. I still hold a question mark over his conditioning but thats one of those things that will have to be found out.

The Machida era has begun

Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida became the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion at UFC 98 with a 2nd round knockout over Rashad Evans. Machida looked his usual self as he gave Evans no chance to land anything significant and scored with laser-like accuracy. After an uneventful first few minutes in the opening round, Machida briefly dropped Rashad with a short left after a leg lick in the only significant moment of the opening frame. The champion was more aggressive in the 2nd round which played right into Lyoto’s hands as he made Evans miss with ease before nailing the champion and dropping him again. Visibly hurt, Evans rose but was forced back into the cage by a barrage of strikes before being knocked out with another short left hand. The win sees the third UFC Light Heavyweight champion in as many fights with Forrest Griffin and now Evans both having lost their titles in their first defence.

This win surely puts Lyoto in the pound for pound mix. While he isn’t up there with the Silva’s, GSP’s and Fedors, he sits on or just below the same shelf as Penn and Torres. He’s gone through everyone he’s faced with such ease that it makes you wonder what is needed to beat him? The grapplers can’t get their hands on him and the strikers can’t land. His footwork, reflexes and defensive instints are on another level and he’s shown increased punching power so far this year with his two knockout wins. Rampage has to be next, although he might be looking for another fight before his next crack at the title. Light Heavyweight may have just joined Middleweight, Welterweight and Lightweight as a division with a seeminly unbeatable champion.

In the co main event, Matt Hughes won the long awaited grudge match with Matt Serra by unanimous decision. Serra had Hughes hurt in the first round after he followed up a head clash with a series of damaging punches before Hughes took Serra down and briefly had his back. The second round saw Hughes score with a takedown and control the entire round doing little damage from on top. The third was almost more of the same as Hughes scored another takedown and did nothing from on top as Serra attempted several submissions from his back. The lack of action forced a stand-up by Steve Mazzagatti before Serra took Hughes down and landed some decent shots from on top. Hughes escaped as the buzzer sounded and took the decision 29-28 on all three cards.

This fight made me kind of disappointed that these two didn’t fight over five rounds back at UFC 79. Rounds four and five would have likely decided the rightful winner in a razor thin fight that could have gone either way. I actually scored the fight for Serra as I thought he did more in the third round, but it really could have gone either way. I’d like to see these two fight again ASAP as there’s no one else out there that would make for a good fight with either of them right now. It was good to see them hug after the fight and exchange compliments, although I’m sure the ill-feelings between these two are fully resolved or ever will be.

Frankie Edgar scored the best win of his career with a unanimous decision over former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk. Sherk showed the complete lack of versatility in his stand-up game that got him in trouble against BJ Penn as Edgar boxed and moved and did it easy for most of the fight against the former champion. Sherk only attempted a takedown once and scored it, although Edgar got back to his feet in quick time. This win shakes up the division a bit and really establishes Gray Maynard as one of the top contenders as he’s beaten Edgar as well as a few other decent opponents. Also on the main card, Drew McFedries scored a devastating knockout over Xaier Foupa-Pokam in just 37 seconds. McFedries jumped on Professor X quickly and ended the fight with a barrage of hard, accurate hooks. Chael Sonnen scored his 2nd win in the Octagon with a three round domination over Dan Miller.

Preliminary Results
Brock Larson 1st round submission (arm triangle choke) Mike Pyle
Tim Hague 1st round submission (guillotine choke) Pat Barry
Kyle Bradley 1st round TKO (referee blunder) Phillipe Nover
Kryzstof Soszynski 1st round KO (punch) Andre Gusmao
Yoshiyuki Yoshida 1st round submission (guillotine choke) Brandon Wolff
George Roop split decision Dave Kaplan

UFC 98 Predictions

The Pacquiao-Hatton hangover ends this weekend with a good few days of fight action, none of it more spectacular then the UFC event this weekend. Headlining the card is Rashad Evans making the first defence of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship that he won in December from Forrest Griffin. His opponent is the undefeated Brazilian star Lyoto Machida who has won all six of his fights in the UFC against the likes of Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou and Thiago Silva. Outside of the UFC he has defeated two legends of the sport; Rich Franklin and BJ Penn (although Penn gave him a huge weight advantage). The co feature on the card is the long awaited grudge fighting between TUF6 coaches and former UFC Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra. The two were expected to fight at UFC 79, but a back injury forced Serra off the card and both were then beaten in their last outings early last year.

Predictions
Main Card
Rashad Evans vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Evans by 4th round knockout
Yes I am picking against the so far unchallenged Machida (and when I say unchallenged, he’s definately beaten good fighters, just none of them have tested him yet). There’s a few factors in this pick. First of all is Evans new found boxing skills which is something Machida is yet to face in the Octagon. None of his opponents have had good technical boxing ability and with this I believe Evans can capitalise on some of Machida’s unorthodox evasive maneuvers and land his hard right hand. Next there’s Evans wrestling background, which Machida has faced in the past but not combined with the hand speed and boxing ability that Evans has. Rashad should be able to better use his stand-up to set up takedowns should he choose to take the fight down whereas someone like Tito Ortiz or Kazuhiro Nakamura had no set-ups to their takedowns which made them useless. Not to mention that Evans has probably the best tactician in MMA in his corner. If anyone can figure Machida out it’s Greg Jackson.
The key factor though is Evan’s incredible conditioning. I can’t remember ever seeing Rashad tired in a fight. Machida’s stamina has never really been questioned because he’s never had to fight in the late rounds at anything other then the pace he wanted to go at. If Rashad can land some shots or score some takedowns he could fluster Machida and break him down with his workrate. I think Machida will be overwhelmed especially as the fight hits the 3rd and 4th rounds and Evans will come over the top of him and score a knockout in what should be a very entertaining fight.

Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
Prediction- Serra by 2nd round knockout
Yes I’m going with both Rashad and Serra. While Matt Hughes is very effective at what he does and it could work against Serra, I think he’ll need more then just good wrestling and a strong top game to win this fight. If the fight stays on the feet for a long period of time it’s big advantage Serra. If Serra gets on top in this fight it’s big, big advantage Serra. If Hughes gets on top of Serra he could very well get submitted although I think if Serra is on his back for too long he’ll do well to pull anything off on the bigger man. I think the big key in this fight is Serra’s improved stand-up and his punching power. Hughes’ stand-up has always been garbage and his keeness to trade in recent fights makes me believe Serra will take his head off with an overhand right and finish Hughes’ career.

ps- I’m going for Serra as well just so you know who’s side I’m on.

Frankie Edgar vs Sean Sherk
Prediction- Sherk on points
Sherk will give Edgar a chance if he’s stupid enough to box with him like he did with Tyson Griffin. If he fights like the Sherk who held the belt he’ll win this one easily.

Drew McFedries vs Xavier Foupa-Pokam
Prediction- Foupa-Pokam by 1st round submission
Like Sherk, Xavier gives McFedries a huge chance if he stands with him. He has excellent Muay Thai, but McFedries is as dangerous a banger as there is. Xavier’s submisison game is also good while McFedries’ is poor. If Xavier takes this to the mat he’ll tap McFedries quickly. If they stand up this could be fight of the night.

Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
Prediction- Sonnen on points
I’m picking this based on quality of opposition. I think Sonnen’s experience will help him in this one and his wrestling should dictate the course of the fight.

Preliminaries
Patrick Barry vs Tim Hague
Prediction- Barry by 2nd round knockout

Kyle Bradley vs Philipe Nover
Prediction- Nover by 1st round knockout

Andre Gusman vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Soszynski on points

Dave Kaplan vs George Roop
Prediction- Kaplan on points

Brock Larson vs Chris Wilson
Prediction- Larson by 2nd round submission

Brandon Wolff vs Yoshiyuko Yoshida
Prediction- Yoshida by 1st round submission

UFC 98 main card pull-outs

UFC 98 is another PPV card that has been changed on a number of occasions due to injuries. Originally dubbed UFC 98: Lesnar vs Mir II with that fight as the headline, Mir pulled out with an injured knee leaving Rashad Evans to step in making the first defence of his Light Heavyweight crown against Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson. Then Rampage pulled out leaving Lyoto Machida to take his place (don’t worry, nothing has happened to that fight). Josh Koscheck was set to face Chris Wilson on the main card along with the TUF 6 coaches grudge match between former Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra and the Lightweight battle between Seah Sherk and Frankie Edgar, but Koscheck was forced off the card with an injury leaving Brock Larson to step in instead.

Now, top Middleweight Yushin Okami has now pulled of his main card fight with Dan Miller as well as James Irvin pulling out of his 185lb debut against Drew McFedries (also on the main card) leaving two holes in the main card. Replacing Irvin will be Xavier Foupa-Pokam and replacing Okami will be Chael Sonnen. The Okami-Miller fight had upper level implications and should Miller win over Sonnen he’ll likely be seen as one of the top contenders (although an announced UFC 102 bout between Demian Maia and Nate Marquadt is likely to land the winner the next title shot). Foupa-Pokam has drawn a pretty exciting match that has me about 90% as excited as I was for the Irvin-McFedries fight. Although winning seven fights by submission (which makes anyone favourite over McFedries), Foupa-Pokam is a lethal striker and a slugfest could be on if Xavier doesn’t decide to take it to the ground where he should be too much for McFedries.

The UFC 98 card now looks like this:

Main Card
Rashad Evans vs Lyoto Machida (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship)
Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
Frankie Edgar vs Sean Sherk
(two to be added from Prelims)

Preliminaries
Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs Drew McFedries
Houston Alexander vs Andre Gusmao
Pat Barry vs Tim Hague
Dave Kaplan vs George Roop
Brock Larsonvs Chris Wilson
Phillipe Nover vs Kyle Bradley
Brandon Wolff vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida

UFC Updates: Evans vs Machida (not Rampage)

Just thought I’d post something different seeing how there’s limited action over the coming weeks until the K-1 event at the end of March. A few big fights have been announced over the last few weeks. I’ve beek keeping a MMA schedule on the main page (when I get around to updating it anyway) so if you want to see who’s on what card that’s coming up this might be a good place to check out.

Evans to fight Machida, not Rampage
That’s right, like I said Rampage fighting three times in a little over five months was too much especially considering one of those was a hard fought fight with Keith Jardine who is a strong, powerful bastard. Machida will instead get his shot in probably the least exciting fight for a UFC title since the Pat Miletich reign at Welterweight. This fight could be very boring, but then again I’ve been wanting to see what it takes to beat one of these guys for a while so at least that’ll satisfy that bit of curiosity for me, that and the fact that Rampage will likely tear apart whoever wins this fight.

TUF 9 Finale features Sanchez-Guida and Diaz-Stevenson
The two main fights apart from the Finals for TUF 9 will feature another round robin of lightweight clashes. After Nate Diaz and Clay Guida beat Josh Neer and Mac Danzig respectively, Diaz fought Guida and Danzig took on in bouts following. The same has happened again with Guida and Diaz, who will meet Sanchez and Stevenson in respective bouts. The Guida-Sanchez fight has serious implications with the winner probably next in line to battle BJ Penn (or Kenny Florian) as both guys have been in good form and are on winning streaks. Diaz and Stevenson should be another good test for Diaz and one that I think he’ll pass. The big thing will be whether or not he can finish ‘Daddy’ because he’ll deserve serious props if he does.

Coleman to face Bonnar at UFC 100
UFC 100 features a hall of fame member in what will be a sad showing as he’ll likely lose to one of the UFC’s average Light Heavyweights. Former UFC and PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman will take on TUF1 Runner-up Stephan Bonnar at UFC 100. Bonnar should win this fight on conditioning alone as Coleman struggles to fight for more then two minutes without being short of breath.

Post UFC 94 Thoughts

Georges St Pierre TKO4 BJ Penn
There’s a fair bit to talk about with this fight. Number one is the greasing accusations against St Pierre. BJ Penn’s camp has put in a formal complaint about St Pierre (I’m just going to refer to him as GSP from now on to save time) using vaseline on his back so he’d be harder to control and would be able to slip out of guard easier. The CSAC went off at one of GSP’s cornermen about rubbing vaseline on the back of his neck. From the video of this, it’s clear that GSP’s corner did this by accident and it’s also clear that it was a minimal amount of vaseline. Everyone needs to relax about this and not let it spoil what was a great moment in MMA. GSP was the better fighter and anyone trying to bring up the grease thing against him is either a massive BJ Penn fan who can’t handle him losing or a massive GSP hater who wants to use anything against him they can. A bit of vaseline (that was wiped off by the commission guys after it was put on his back) isn’t going to change the result of a one sided TKO to a win for Penn. People are making out that GSP won because of the grease and not because he was the better fighter.
On GSP’s performance, wow! His wrestling seems to be on another level from everyone else’s in MMA right now. His guard passing seems to get better with every fight and his boxing is also very good. It’s going to take something special to defeat GSP anytime soon. GSP made Penn fight his fight when he was fresh and then when he tired he took Penn to the ground where he was meant to have the advantage and started beating him there. I honestly think GSP is the top pound for pound fighter in the sport right now. People still hold the Matt Serra loss over him but at least he avenged it. He’s beaten every man he’s ever faced and he’s been facing top fighters since his 4th pro fight! While I think Anderson Silva would beat GSP if he moved up to challenge the Middleweight king, I’m talking pound for pound here and I think, especially with his recent form, GSP has overtaken Silva with this win.
Despite how good it was watching GSP perform like that I do feel for BJ Penn and I think it may be the end of him more mentally then physically. He’s always given off the impression that believed he could beat any man out there regardless of size and now that GSP has beaten him he may just lose the motivation. Penn probably would have beaten most of the 170lbers out there and I’d back him over a few of the middleweight in the UFC if he fought them, but against the bigger fighters he’ll always fail against the top guys. Still, he’s one tough son of a bitch and anyone ripping on him for not answering the 5th round is a fucking moron. No other man at 170lbs or below would have taken that sort of punishment for as long as Penn did, the fact that he lasted until the end of the 4th round showed that Penn is as tough as they come.

Undercards
Machida was impressive but I still have question marks over how he will perform against a good boxer. Right now I’d pick both Rampage and Rashad Evans over Machida because I think they would keep the fight standing and catch Machida as he tried to ‘run’ after he ‘hits.’ The guys he’s been beating haven’t been good crisp stand-up fighters and I think Machida will be exploited for his unorthodox ways when he fights a good MMA boxer.
Jon Jones was impressive and he’ll serve to remind me not to pick against a guy on the main card if I haven’t seen him before. I didn’t know about his wrestling credentials and I should have done my homework on him before ruling him out. Bonnar fought well for a guy who hasn’t fought for 18 months, hopefully he’s back in the cage sooner rather then later. Parisyan falls under the same category in that he looked like shit because he hasn’t been fighting much, he needs to get back in the cage ASAP. Guida moved into the lightweight elite with his win and should Penn vacate his belt, Guida could be one of the guys in contention for the fight. Jon Fitch also bounced back from his loss to GSP at UFC 87 with a decision win over Akihiro Gono.

Angry Match Maker

Georges St Pierre vs Thiago Alves/BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian
Surely I need not explain these choices.

Karo Parisyan vs Jon Fitch
Both guys were coming off losses heading into last weekends card and both bounced back with decision victories. Both guys were considered the top contenders this time last year before Parisyan was knocked out by Thiago Alves while Fitch got his shot against GSP and was beaten up for five rounds. This fight definately would help fill up any main card on an upcoming UFC.

Clay Guida vs Jim Miller/Gray Maynard
Miller and Maynard are scheduled to fight at UFC 96 and the winner of that fight joins Guida in the second tier UFC lightweights behind Penn, Florian and Sherk. A fight between the winner of that fight and Guida could determine the next number one contender and, like Parisyan-Fitch, would be a solid addition to the main card of any card.

Jon Jones vs Matt Hammill
This fight would really show us how good Jones’ wrestling is because thats the only place Hammill is going to test anyone anytime soon. While it might not have PPV main card appeal, it’d be an interesting fight on the main card of a fight night card or as a preliminary or swing bout.

St Pierre batters Penn at UFC 94

Georges St Pierre defended his UFC Welterweight Championship on Sunday with a 4th round TKO win over BJ Penn after Penn didn’t answer the bell for the 5th and final round. The win was the second successful defence of th title for St Pierre, who took it from Matt Serra at UFC 83 last year with a 2nd round TKO win. The win sets up a fight between St Pierre and number one contender Thiago Alves who is coming off victories over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last two outings. The loss also likely sets up a fight between BJ Penn, who holds the UFC Lightweight title, and number one Lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

The fighters clinched up quickly after the opening round began and St Pierre tried for the entire round to take Penn down but with no success. The fighters seperated a few times with Penn landing a hard right hand on one occassion and St Pierre landing a solid right of his own on another. The round proved to be the tactical battle many anticipated and St Pierre probably won due to his aggression. Round two was a completely different story though. St Pierre again shot in for a single leg takedown and this time managed to get Penn on his back. Working from inside Penn’s rubber guard and butterfly guard, St Pierre worked Penn over with elbows and punches while looking to pass guard. The times he managed to get to side control, Penn used freakish escapes to get back to guard but that was all he was able to do as St Pierre won the second round big.

Penn looked like the minutes rest between the second and third round did him not good as he appeared sluggish at the start of the third round. St Pierre landed solid jabs and a devastating leg kick with little attempt at defence from the former Welterweight Champion before St Pierre again took Penn to the ground. Despite being able to pass Penn’s guard more in this round, St Pierre’s offence wasn’t as dominating as in the previous round. Still, the round ended with St Pierre on top working Penn over with strikes. Penn looked even more tired at the start of the 4th and after eating several punches and leg kicks, he found himself in the familiar position of being on his back. St Pierre’s confidence was growing as he often attempted to mount Penn with little regard for the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champions guard. Midway through the round St Pierre landed his most damaging strikes of the round and after referee Herb Dean asked for Penn to fight back, ‘GSP’ turned it up. St Pierre proceeded to punish Penn with devastating punches from on top and was probably only a few seconds away from stopping Penn when the round ended.

A frustrated looking St Pierre walked back to his corner and a physically beaten Penn staggered back to his. In the corner the doctor and referee both examined Penn before JD Penn, BJ’s brother and manager told the doctor he wanted to stop the fight and awarded St Pierre with the TKO victory. The win brings St Pierre’s record to 18-2 with only five fights going the distance. Penn’s record drops to 13-5 and likely puts an end to Penn’s aspirations of winning titles in every weight division. With Thiago Alves likely next on the French-Canadian’s plate, a possible mega fight with Anderson Silva will have to wait. That fight would pit, in my opinion anyway, the two top pound for pound fighters in MMA against each other.

On the undercard, Lyoto Machida finally scored a knockout win in the UFC, knocking Thiago Silva out at the bell to end the first round. After clowning Silva in his usual way, Machida twice dropped the undefeated Brazilian and used clever inside trips on other occassions to put Silva on his back. One of these trips ended with Silva in guard and Machida delivered two bombs from a standing position that left Silva unconscious as the buzzer went to end the first round. Referee Yves Lavigne took a few seconds before calling the fight with Silva out on the mat. The win, according to Dana White, will earn Machida a shot at the title should Keith Jardine defeat Rampage Jackson at UFC 96. If Jardine is victorious, Machida will fight Evans for the belt instead.

Young star Jon Jones spoiled Stephan Bonnar’s return to the Octagon with a variety of spinning back kicks, highlight reel takedowns and a spinning elbow which nearly knocked Bonnar out in the 2nd round. Despite a late rally from the TUF1 runner-up, Jones held on for a unanimous decision victory. Karo Parisyan won in his comeback via split decision in an uneventful fight with fellow Judoka Dong Hyun Kim. Clay Guida took out another TUF winner, scoring a split decision over Nate Diaz in a fight that resembled a wrestling match. The times Diaz broke free and used his hands he looked a completely different fighter, even hurting Guida in the third round, but he spent too much time being outwrestled by Guida and was on the wrong end of a close decision.

Full Results
Georges St Pierre TKO4 (corner stoppage) BJ Penn
Lyoto Machida KO1 (punch) Thiago Silva
Jon Jones UD Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan SD Dong Hyun Kim
Clay Guida SD Nate Diaz
Jon Fitch UD Akihiro Gono
Thiago Tavares UD Manny Gamburyan
John Howard SD Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien SD Cristian Wellisch
Dan Cramer SD Matt Arroyo