Some fights just aren’t meant to happen.
The history behind tomorrow’s UFC 109 main event between Hall of Famer’s Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture and Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman suggested that this was one of those fights. Originally scheduled to meet at UFC 17 in Coleman’s return fight from his shock loss to Maurice Smith (he would have challenged Couture for the heavyweight title Couture won from Smith at ‘Ultimate Japan’), Couture was forced off the show with an injury paving the way for youngster Pete Williams to fight Coleman and shockingly KO Coleman with a highlight reel head kick. Couture left the UFC not long after, heading to Japan’s RINGS organisation where he’d lose three fights between 1998 and 2001 while Coleman lost a decision to Pedro Rizzo before heading towards the PRIDE.
With both fighters careers looking to be closing down, they both turned it around in 2000. Coleman outlasted a field of eight top competitors to win the PRIDE 2000 Open Weight Grand Prix, a tournament billed to crown the best fighter on the planet (with the exception of two or three UFC fighters at the time, it pretty much did) while Couture returned to the UFC and defeated their heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman before defending it twice against Pedro Rizzo in explosive battles. Again Couture and Coleman were at the top of the sport and were the subjects of the first PRIDE vs UFC champions debate, but their meeting wouldn’t happen. Coleman lost his title to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and his career went on a slide from there while Couture did his thing in the UFC (do I really need to go into detail on what everyone already knows on Couture?) and the fight hasn’t really been talked about since.
Tomorrow the two MMA legends meet at Light Heavyweight in the main event of the UFC’s annual super bowl weekend card (for anyone who gives a shit I’m picking the Colts). The fight is of little significance right now. Although it does push Couture very close to another title shot should he win, should Coleman win he’ll likely be fed to an up and comer and brutalised. Still, probably the most anticipated fight in MMA history (apart from the one where somehow or another Fedor fights the reigning UFC Heavyweight champion) was when Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva were ruling their respective organisations’ 205lb divisions, and when they eventually fought it was off the back of consecutive losses and their fight was an absolute war. The Couture-Coleman fight is definately one to check out.
While both men come from wrestling backgrounds (Coleman was a 92 Olympian, Couture was two time Olympic alternate) their styles are much different now. Coleman has often been criticised for not evolving and his style very much relies on his ability to get the fight to the ground and get on top. Couture on the other hand as learnt how to box and has learnt submissions and learnt them to the levels where he has used them to win fights. Couture’s weaknesses have been against much bigger guys or guys who could hurt him standing and stuff his takedowns. Coleman definately has the wrestling pedigree to stuff Couture’s takedowns, but his stand-up has always been primitive in terms of technique. The other big factor besides the overall game of both men is conditioning. Couture is always in top shape while Coleman has lost many fights due to his lack of gas. Even though Couture’s durability has looked suspect in recent fights and while Coleman probably looked the best he’s ever looked in his last fight, I doubt he can outstrike or outlast The Natural.
I think this fight will see a clinch battle for the first round with both men trying to get the other on their back. The big difference will be that Couture will likely score with punches that lead to the clinch and then will likely have the upper hand in the ‘dirty boxing’ game which he is a master of. Couture’s clinch game will wear on Coleman’s conditioning which will make Coleman’s takedown shots become desperate and open him up to punches as well as takedowns from Couture himself. I think if Couture gets on top at anytime in this fight he’ll end it, while if Coleman gets on top Couture will probably escape. I really don’t see anyway in which Coleman wins this fight unless he somehow outworks Couture. I can see the fight ending in one of three ways; ground and pound, rear naked choke or some sort of choke off the sprawl with Coleman too gassed to fight it. Either way I think Randy Couture wins this fight in the 2nd round.
The undercard is fairly appetising with the co-main event to decide the next Middleweight title challenger. With Nate Marquadt’s defeat of Damian Maia and Chael Sonnen being the man to finally defeat Yushin Okami as well as Dan Henderson’s depature from the UFC, the winner of this fight is the most logical challenger for the title since Henderson himself. This fight is interesting in terms of style, similar to the Couture-Coleman fight, as Sonnen has a strong wrestling base while Marquadt is the more well-rounded fighter. Marquadt is definately the more dangerous fighter in terms of striking and submissions, but Sonnen’s wrestling is that good that he could overwhelm Marquadt and take a decision. Sonnen has been submitted in the past, but I’d hardly but Marquadt in the submission league of Damian Maia, Jeremy Horn or Paulo Filho. Still, I think Marquadt’s well rounded game will give him the edge, and I think he’ll win a close decision in a competitive fight (I’d like to see Sonnen win just to see him cop a bashing at the hands of Anderson Silva because he’s an A-grade douche bag).
Also on the main card, Mike Swick attempts to further avenge the knockout Paulo Thiago inflicted on fellow AKA fighter Josh Koscheck (Fitch already beat him last year). I don’t see Thiago handling Swick. His striking, despite scoring the knockout over Koscheck, is full of holes and Swick is the best striker from AKA and I think he’ll tear Thiago a new one inside a few minute. Former Welterweight champion Matt Serra takes on Frank Trigg in a semi-old school battle as both men have been around sinde the 90s. I think Trigg will finally do the job and send Serra back down to 155lbs where he should be, although Serra is going to be dangerous for the entire fight with his knockout power and submissions. Trigg’s size advantage and wrestling base should see him through to a decision win. Damian Maia also returns, taking on Dan Miller. Miller has the tools to make this fight hard for the submission ace, but I think this fight hits the ground at some point and Maia submits him when it does.
On the undercard, Mac Danzig should break his losing streak against Justin Bucholz, I’m picking Ronny Torres to submit Melvin Guillard because he’s a BJJ fighter and Guillard has no submission defence, Nover to destroy Rob Emerson, Rolles Gracie and Phil Davis to win their UFC debuts and YAMMA Pit Fighting veteran Chris Tuschererererererer to defeat Tim Hague.
