UFC 110 Picks

UFC 110 in Australia takes place tomorrow and with the excitement of attending my first UFC event I’ve left it a bit late to post my picks up. With nothing better to do to kill the remaining 12 or so hours before the first preliminary fight, here’s my picks for tomorrows event:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Pick- Nogueira by 2nd round submission
While I agree that Velasquez is probably the safe pick in this fight, I don’t see any way he can win this fight inside the distance and against a finisher and a survivor like Nogueira that is dangerous. As good as Velasquez is, his game revolves around his wrestling and his explosiveness. His power has appeared overrated in his last three fights with an inability to finish Cheick Kongo despite the numerous advantageous positions and strikes he landed, a controversial stoppage against Ben Rothwell where he again landed numerous strikes that were taken as comfortably as one could take numerous strikes from a 230lb Mexican fighter and a one sided beatdown that went way longer then it should have against Denis Stojnic. Velasquez’s striking is technically below average and his lack of positional knowledge on the ground could get him into trouble against a Jiu Jitsu master like Nogueira.

Nogueira has two big advantages in this fight; boxing and jiu jitsu. Velasquez has proven he can take a punch from a top level MMA striker in the fight with Cheick Kongo, but if he chooses to keep the fight on the feet Nogueira will outbox him en route to a unanimous decision win. If Velasquez decides to use his wrestling to take the fight to the floor, he won’t gain the superior positioning against Nogueira that he has enjoyed in previous fights. I have no doubt that Nogueira could sweep Velasquez as he has swept plenty of good fighters in the past who have solid top games (most notably Fedor Emelianenko although it did him little good). While Nogueira’s pure jiu jitsu isn’t on the absolute elite level, his game is among the best for MMA as he works off his opponents strikes. I think Velasquez will probably be ahead on points early in the fight, but will likely fall victim to one of Nogueira’s chokes during a scramble sometime during the middle of the fight.

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping
Prediction- Silva by 1st round knockout
I honestly think that Bisping is scared of Silva. He’s trying to put on a brave front, but he seems to be reacting to whatever Wanderlei does. At the weigh in he seemed to be comfortable until he had to stare Wanderlei down. This is where Wanderlei is at his best, when he has an opponent who he can intimidate. Bisping’s only real shot in this fight is if Wanderlei’s weight cut severely effects him (he looks a hell of a lot better then he did when he fought Franklin so I assume he’s done it better this time) and then he’d have to employ a hit and run style and win on points. I think Wanderlei’s almost reckless style will overwhelm Bisping and he’ll be able to utilise his clinch game and overall just punish ‘The Count’ until he can’t take anymore. Silva by brutal, one sided knockout.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropolous
Prediction- Stevenson on points
I think the UFC are banking on a big win by George so they can use him as they used Bisping to build shows around him in Australia. I think they will be spoilt as Stevenson’s top game will be a bit too much at this stage of Georges career. If George can keep the fight standing, he’ll punish ‘Daddy’ as Stevenson’s stand-up has always been poor, but Stevenson is a solid wrestler and I believe he’ll win a unanimous, but highly competitive decision while utilising his top game.

Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
Prediction- Jardine on points
Bader is still completing his game and one of the areas he lacks is in the stand-up. Jardine is coming off a big knockout loss and back to back losses, but with the quality wrestlers he has to train with I think he’ll be well prepared for Bader’s takedowns. Bader on the other hand has no one to replicate Jardine’s unorthodox (thats a kind way of putting it) striking style and I think once Jardine gets into a rhythm, Bader will have a hard time getting anything going against him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh
Prediction- Cro Cop by 1st round knockout (hopefully a head kick)
Well most people were disappointed when Ben Rothwell pulled out on Friday, but I sort of wasn’t. Being the old school PRIDE fan that I am I’m sort of hoping to see Nogueira pull of a come from behind submission win, Wanderlei destroy someone and Cro Cop win by head kick knockout. He has a much better chance of knocking out Perosh then he did Rothwell (I’d have picked Rothwell in their fight). Perosh is a UFC veteran, having dropped fights to Jeff Monson and Critian Wellisch and he is a solid ground fighter having competed in Abu Dhabi, but he has been the victim of some knockouts in the past (one of them to James Te-Huna, who fights on the prelims) and I expect nothing different from him here.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Bonnar on points
Bonnar’s a handful when he’s on his game and I think he’ll be on his game tomorrow. It’s a pickem fight I feel and I think he’s due to pull one out.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Foster
Prediction- Foster on points
This fight will be fight of the night. These two live for the war and I expect nothing less. Foster is the less battle hardened of the two, but he brings more physical tools to the fight and thats where I think he wins it.

CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
Prediction- Dollaway on points
It’s been a long wait for the return of Goran, almost two years and I think Dollaway is too much too soon after such a long lay off. Goran looked good when he defeated Gouveia, but I think Dollaway will be hungry for a big win and will grind out a tough decision.

James Te-Huna vs Igor Pokrajac
Prediction- Igor by 1st round submission
I’m not holding out much hope for the Kiwi kickboxer. His ground game is pretty average and Igor is an experienced wrestler and once it hits the ground Te-Huna will be a fish out of water.

Why MMA will take over Boxing in Australia

How well would the boxing kangaroo fight off it's back?

With one night to go until the UFC makes it’s much anticipated Australian debut, everything in this country is set up for MMA to finally push boxing into the past and emerge as the future of combat sports down under. With the shoddy state of boxing in Australia at the moment, about the only thing that will stop MMA from moving past boxing would be an ugly incident either in the Octagon or in the crowd at next Sundays event. With even the head honcho’s involved with boxing not caring about it’s future, but rather trying to milk every last cent out of it right now, yet the people in charge of MMA trying to build the sport’s long term future it’s only inevitable that boxing be taken over by the new sport.  

With the small coverage MMA has received in Australia it has a cult following among the people who know about it. The guys who know lots about it get their friends into it, albeit at a much smaller level. The effect of this is like that of a trail of gun powderand the UFC 110 card in Sydney tomorrow is the spark that will explode MMA into a more mainstream sport in Australia. Tomorrow’s show sold out inside of a week with probably 90% of the tickets selling before they were open to the public meaning that there will likely be a second show sometime in the not to distant future (likely next year around the same time). With hardly any big boxing fights taking place in Australia (Australia’s main promoter Angelo Hyder is stuck in the late 90s thinking that big names that Australians want to see are Roy Jones jnr, Evander Holyfield and Mike Tyson, three men ten years past their best), an annual UFC event will only help the sport grow. The fact that One HD has scrapped it’s “Super Boxer” series and shows next to no current boxing, yet they will show UFC 110 live tomorrow for free is also a big sign of what is to come in the future. 

The bottom line is that Boxing in this country is a joke. The fact that Australians will go to the pub or fork out $50 to watch a Mundine pay per view to see him fight some fringe South American contender while some Rugby League star has a pub brawl with a guy who wouldn’t even be club level material anywhere else in the world yet they couldn’t tell you who the heavyweight champion of the world is is of major concern. Nothing is done to push boxing back into the spotlight or develop some of the upcoming fighters. Even the recent Australian version of ‘The Contender’ left out decent prospects like Jamie Pittman, a man who has the skills to be a threat on the world stage but lacks the exposure that a show like ‘The Contender’ would have given him to be able to build a following in this country. There are plenty of guys out there like Jamie Pittman who are talented boxers but just can’t build the following down here that they would have otherwise done if boxing was taken seriously. Sure Pittman is very well known to the boxing public, but do you really think the Captain of the Australian Olympic Boxing team would be struggling to get televised or even get decent fights in England or the USA? Yet guys like Sonny Bill Williams and Carl Webb get main support fights on what is probably the biggest stage in Australian boxing (the Mundine shows) and probably earn just as much!  

The production value of boxing shows is also a major problem with boxing in Australia. The fact that  MORON like Andy Raymond, who is a Rugby League commentator with no clue about anything boxing is the voice of the sport down here is nauseating. The ring announcers have no idea how to properly announce a show, and yes there is a proper and improper way of doing things. For one, you don’t announce the rules of the bout while the fighters are in the ring waiting to get it on (see the Green-Jones prelims for an example). You don’t announce a close decision in favour of ”the red corner” in the biggest domestic fight of the year (see Mundine-Geale decision) when no one pays any attention which corner they’re fighting out of. It’s painful watching a high profile boxing card in Australia because you can tell that the people in charge of running it have no idea what they’re doing. I rarely watch local Fox Sports boxing shows anymore because of how bad it is (that and the mismatches that they often have). You don’t need four or five ring girls dancing in the ring between rounds with dance music playing (you didn’t see this on say the Pacquiao-Cotto card for example did you?). You don’t need to show the Australian rankings after every fight and you definately don’t need to show random rounds out of insignificant fights from past local shows when you’ve got nothing else to do. One of the main strengths of the UFC is the production value. They do an amazing job of hyping up the fights with pre fight interviews, a highly energetic ring announcer and the right amount of tits and arse between rounds with the focus being more on the fighters which is what the people watching paid to see. 

Should the UFC 110 card deliver tomorrow, expect to see a rise in regional MMA shows and an even further drop in local pro-am boxing cards. With more and more people already turning to kickboxing or jiu jitsu, there’s bound to be an emergence of competitors willing to try their luck with 4oz gloves instead of the 12oz gloves and headgear that amateur boxers use. There are already a number of good fighters from Australia and New Zealand (two of them fight tomorrow night on the main card) and if some of them can increase their celebrity down here to a slightly mainstream audience, something that say a victory for George Sotiropolous over Joe Stevenson tomorrow night would do, it’s only going to help the MMA cause down under. Boxing has been on a slow decline in this country since the late 80′s when we had our last batch of Australian contenders who actually fought one another. Sure there’s been a slight resurgence with the likes of Anthony Mundine and Danny Green and Daniel Geale, but our best fighters (Vic Darchinyan and Michael Katsidis) both fight overseas and have a bigger following in the USA then they do down here. No longer are the days of TV ringside where contenders were brought up through the tough local circuit and had to earn their status when fighters like Hector Thompson, Tony Mundine and Paul Ferreri gave the world champions of the day, men who are among the greatest to have ever entered a boxing ring in their respective divisions, some of the toughest fights of their career. The state of boxing today is one of prospects not learning their craft through overprotection and mismatches who end up taking the massive step up in class that they aren’t ready for and when they lose those that were paying attention to them no longer do while the rest of Australia who aren’t as into boxing as someone like me is go on watching their Mundine cards and having a laugh when the two heavyweights start trading arm punches with their chin in the air. MMA has slowly been taking over in America, and although boxing is run pretty badly over there, it’s not nearly as bad as it is down here. All that is needed to start the MMA frenzy is for the biggest promotion in the world to bring one of its shows down here to get some mainstream attention.

Franklin edges Silva at UFC 99

Former UFC 185lb champion Rich Franklin scored arguably the biggest win of his career over former PRIDE 205lb champion Wanderlei Silva in Germany at UFC 99 on the weekend. Franklin scored a three round unanimous decision over ‘The Axe Murderer’ after three rounds of hard fighting. Using good footwork and a patient stand-up game, Franklin got off first in the opening round scoring with lead right hands and the odd left kick. Silva was also patient as he tried to find an opening for his right hand. Midway through the round, Silva caught a body kick and took the fight to the mat where he landed with a handful of solid punches from in Franklins guard. Franklin worked his way back up where Silva attempted and missed a guillotine choke attempt, ending up on his back. Franklin landed several hard punches as he attempted to move to mount, which allowed Silva to escape back to his feet to end the round.

Round two saw Franklin controlling the tempo of the round early before Silva started finding his range standing up. After scoring with a few kicks, Silva rocked Franklin briefly with a right hand, only to eat a jab that briefly dropped him in return. Later in the round Silva again scored with a right hand that shook Franklin up. Silva smelled blood and landed several hard shots that had Franklin in trouble. Franklin survived as Silva looked exhausted at the end of the second round. With Franklin having a clear edge in the first and Silva the edge in the second, both men looked to gain the early advantage in the third.

Franklin scored with a heavy body kick early in the round, but Silva retaliated with two hard right hands. Despite his physical exhaustion, Silva continued to look for the knockout with every strike as he attempted a few wild head kicks. Franklin however was racking up the points with his jab and making Wanderlei miss his counters. In the final minute of the fight, Silva raises his arms to the crowd and then attacks Franklin with a flurry of hard punches. Franklin survived and scored a takedown before Silva escaped but gave up his back in the process. With both men standing agfainst the fence, Silva threw some nasty elbows at Franklin (who was behind him) while Franklin threw hard punches for the final seconds of the fight.

With the decision appearing to possibly go either way, it was a shock when no scores were read out and a unanimous decision announced for Franklin. On first viewing I thought Rich deserved the fight and it was possible to score all three rounds to him. On second viewing I thought Wanderlei won 29-28 and thought he was winning the first round until he ended up on the bottom from the attempted guillotine. I trust my second viewing better as the first viewing was at 7am after an hour of interrupted sleep. The biggest thing I noticed in the fight was the weight cut really affected Wanderlei. I think if these two fought at 205lbs that Wanderlei would have taken him apart and I really can’t see Wanderlei being a huge force at 185lbs unless he gets a specialist trainer in to help him cut weight. Sure it was a first time thing so the effects might be different next time, but next time if he plans on fighting at 185lbs he’ll have to lose an extra 10lbs which could be hard for someone who has never cut weight during his career and has been in as many wars as Wanderlei has had. At 205 certain guys are too big for him (I still think Wanderlei was beating Rampage until he got caught, just for the record), but I think he has a lot more chance of being a force at 205 without cutting weight then he does of even making 185lbs.

On the undercard, Cain Velasquez showed the lack of basic jiu jitsu positions as he survived three knockdowns en route to a dominating decision win over Cheick Kongo. Velasquez was dropped twice in the opening moments of the fight before he scored a takedown and mounted Kongo easily where he delivered punishment for the full five minutes. The second round was more of the same except that Velasquez was only dropped once at the start of the round. The third round was more of the same again, except that Kongo didn’t drop Velasquez. If Velasquez knew how to put the hooks in from back mount and went for a choke, I think he could have ended this in the first round. It seems to be a trend from the bigger wrestlers to not use the hooks from back but instead just ride them like side mount which is effective but not so much in terms of ending the fight.

In other action, Mirko Cro Cop scored a controversial first round stoppage over Mustapha Al-Turk in his return to the UFC. After battering Turk for most of the round, Cro Cop accidently poked Mustapha in the eye before bludgening him while he was in pain forcing the referee to stop the fight and award Cro Cop the victory as he didn’t see the eye poke. Mike Swick moved further towards the Welterweight elite scoring a 2nd round knockout over undefeated Ben Saunders. Caol Uno’s return to the UFC was a bitter one as he was (in my opinion anyway) robbed of a decision over Spencer Fisher. The fight was very tactical, but Uno appeared to do enough to win the 2nd round and easily won the third round. In the other fight of the evening (morning), Dan Hardy won a split decision over Marcus Davis in a highly anticipated grudge fight. The fight was close with Davis having the better control and Hardy doing more damage which included dropping Davis with a knee in the 2nd round. I scored the fight for Hardy 29-28.

UFC 99 Predictions

While this card lacks the huge main event of some of the more recent cards or the ones in the coming months, UFC 99 looks to be one of the more explosive cards in recent memory. The main event itself is a fight that should promise fireworks as both guys like to stand up and go for the knockout and should they hit the ground neither man is the type to gain a dominant position and hold it for a decision win. Former PRIDE 205lb champion Wanderlei Silva headlines his first UFC card since his return to the Octagon (Silva has previously headlined the UFC 25 card when he fought and lost to Tito Ortiz for the championship nine years ago) and he takes on former UFC 185lb champion Rich Franklin at a catchweight of 195lb. In addition to that fight, there is five others instead of the usual four and all five have the potential for fireworks. Cain Velasquez has his first true test as he takes on dangerous stand-up fighter Cheick Kongo. Mirko Cro Cop and Caol Uno make their returns to the UFC taking on Mustapha Al-Turk and Spencer Fisher respectively. An interesting welterweight fight between in form fighters Mike Swick and Ben Saunders could give us the next top contender at 170lbs and a grudge fight between veteran Marcus Davis and hot prospect Dan Hardy. If there’s a fight on this main card that you’re not interested in then there’s something wrong with you in my honest opinion. Sunday is one of those rare days that has an exciting UFC card on in the morning (by morning I mean 5am) and then a quality boxing match on at lunch time. I’m drooling at the thought of it……

Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
Prediction- Franklin on points
I’m barracking for Silva as he is one of my favourite all-time fighters to watch but taking that out of the equation, I think Franklin has the edge in this fight. While Silva is the one dropping down to the weight, I feel Franklin will be the bigger man in this fight as well as the more experienced at the weight which is a strange combination. Silva has never had to make a weight below 205 and you don’t know how much that is going to hurt him. Combine that with the brutal knockout loss Silva suffered in his last fight and you don’t know how much he has left. Franklin doesn’t have the punching power of the guys who have knocked him out like Rampage, Cro Cop or in my opinion even Henderson but the effects of being knocked out in the fashion Silva has been KO’d it may have softened his jaw up. I fully expect this to be a war and you definately can’t count out Silva especially with his effectiveness from the clinch which is the way Anderson Silva knocked Franklin out twice for the Middleweight title, but I feel Wanderlei has seen better days and I think Franklin will get the better of the three round battle but it won’t be all one way traffic.

Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
Prediction- Velasquez by 2nd round TKO
Kongo has the obvious advantage on the feet, but I don’t think his improved wrestling ability will help him in this fight and I think he’ll be fighting off his back for 80-90% of the fight. Velasquez’s wrestling is too strong for Kongo and I don’t think he’ll have much trouble getting the takedown and then doing damage from on top. Velasquez has awesome punching power from on top and even though Kongo has a solid chin, I think the constant punishment will take it’s toll and the referee will save Kongo in the 2nd round.

Ben Saunders vs Mike Swick
Prediction- Swick by 1st round KO
A bit of a bold prediction here, but I don’t think Saunders will handle the type of fight Swick brings early on. Swick is too explosive for a guy like Saunders who is wide open at times and easy to hit. I think the longer this fight goes, the more chance Saunders has but I think Swick will blitz him. His hand speed is incredible and takes many guys by surprise and I expect Saunders will go in the fashion we got used to seeing Swick destroy people. Too much too soon for Saunders, I don’t think this fight will last two minutes.

Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
Prediction- Davis by 2nd round submission
There’s a bit of hatred between the two in this fight and I think it’s going to work against Hardy in this fight. Davis’ ground game is really solid now where it used to be his achilles heel where Hardy’s ground game still has a question mark over it as he’s been submitted a few times in the past. Hardy’s strength is his boxing, which is also Davis’ strength. Davis has never been knocked out from standing up and he’s faced stronger boxers then Hardy before. I think this fight has the potential to be as one sided as Davis vs Kelly back in October where Kelly wasn’t ready for the type of fight Davis brings. That’s how I feel about this fight although I think Hardy will put up a much better fight. I think once it hits the ground though Davis will show the difference between the two fighters.

Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
Prediction- Fisher on points
This is an interesting fight. Fisher is one of those guys who gets dominated or scores dramatic stoppage wins and he does it with strikes or submissions, he’s not one dimensional at all. Uno hasn’t been stopped in a long time and the fact that he survived 15 minutes on the ground with Shinya Aoki leads me to believe that Fisher won’t submit him. I’m finding it hard to see Uno winning the fight though unless Fisher is off his game (which could happen after a long layoff like Fisher has had). Fisher’s wrestling is one of his weaker areas, but I think he has the edge in wrestling in this fight. Uno is well rounded, but against a good strong Lightweight like Fisher I don’t think his game is up to standard anymore. Fisher to score a close but unanimous decision.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Mustapha Al-Turk
Prediction- Cro  Cop by 1st round knockout
Please please please don’t let Mirko have slipped this much.I’m hoping at least one of the three past generation fighters can win on this card and it’ll be sad if Cro Cop’s game has declined this much that he can’t beat someone like Al-Turk. That’s not taking anything away from Mustapha, but four years ago this is the type of fighter Cro Cop feasted on and brutalised. I’ve got to back one of the three (the other two being Wanderlei and Uno) so hopefully Cro Cop lets me reminisce a little bit about the glory days of PRIDE FC. I’ll stop before I start talking about how Wanderlei makes soccer kicks look poetic.

Preliminaries
Justin Bucholz vs Terry Etim (Etim on points)
Dale Hartt vs Denis Siver (Siver on points)
Peter Sobotta vs Paul Taylor (Taylor by 2nd round TKO)
Rolando Delgado vs Paul Kelly (Kelly on points)
Denis Stronje vs Stefan Struve (Struve on points)
John Hathaway vs Rick Story (Story by 1st round TKO)

Cro Cop vs Al-Turk official for UFC 99

PRIDE 2006 Open Weight Grand Prix Champion Mirko Cro Cop will return to the UFC in two weeks to meet fringe contender Mustapha Al Turk on the televised portion of the card. Cro Cop had three previous fights in the organisation, going 1-2 with his only win coming over the very limited and inexperienced Eddie Sanchez at UFC 67. At the time Cro Cop was on the back of his Grand Prix win, and the organisation was looking to fast track him to a Heavyweight title shot against then champion Tim Sylvia (who then lost his title to Randy Couture) and with the likes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira about to be signed there seemed to be endless huge matchups that involved the Croatian. Cro Cop then met Gabriel Gonzaga at the main event of UFC 70 for the right to fight the champion and after being beaten up on the ground for much of the first round, Cro Cop was knocked out with a violent head kick. Cro Cop then returned at UFC 75 where he dropped a close decision to Cheick Kongo which left many fans jumping ship as it appeared Cro Cop’s days as a contender were done.

Since the disappointing losses, Mirko has won two bouts and had a no contest with Alistair Overeem in a fight that he was getting battered in. His most recent outing saw him stop Hong Man Choi at Dynamite with a leg kick in a lacklustre fight. Cro Cop’s return does add some excitement to what in my opinion is a pretty boring Heavyweight division in the UFC. The two guys at the top I don’t think could handle the likes of Fedor, Barnett, Arlovski or even Tim Sylvia (thats more a style thing then a skill thing and I’d love to see Mir submit Sylvia in a rematch). Cro Cop, with the likes of Couture and Nogueira in the division, would make a good opponent for some of these guys and a win over him for the likes of Velasquez or Carwin would boost up their resume’ big time. Cro Cop has to get past Al Turk first, and in his recent form that’s no gimme’. I think Cro Cop knocks him out but you just don’t know what he has left if the fight gets tough.

UFC 99 will show six fights on the main card which is great news. All of the fights are three rounders including the main event which sees Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva do battle. This is a card I’m really looking forward to now as there is four fights I’m genuinely excited about and another two which will be good battles. The Davis-Hardy fight is shaping up to be a grudge match with someone finally bringing Davis’ Irish roots into question and Davis not loking it one bit. Velasquez gets a real test against Cheick Kongo in the co-main event and Caol Uno makes his return to the UFC against Spencer Fisher in what could be an all-out war. Plus for Australian’s like me who like both MMA and boxing, the UFC is on at 5am and Cotto-Clottey is on at midday so it’s going to be a good day!

K-1 Dynamite Predictions

Fight #1 
Minowaman vs Errol Zimmerman
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Minowaman by submission  first 10 minutes
The same thing always happens when Minowaman fights K-1 fighters with no MMA experience, he wins by leg lock. Zimmerman will kill him if the fight stays standing too long but it won’t. This fight shouldn’t go five minutes.

Fights #2 and #3 are part of a tournament between guys I don’t know a thing about.

Fight #4
Artur Kyshenko vs Yoshihiro Sato
(K-1 Rules)
Prediction- Kyshenko by 3rd round KO
This could be fight of the night, but the edge has to go to this years K-1 MAX Finallist. Sato will be in the fight early but will be broken down and likely stopped.

Fight #5
Daisuke Nakamura vs Hideo Tokoro
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Nakamura by submission first 10 minutes
There’s a big size difference in this fight and while Tokoro is a good fighter, he won’t be any match for Nakamura especially considering he’s giving up roughly 20lbs. Nakamura by armbar some time in the 2nd half of the first round.

Fight #6
Andy Ologun vs Yukio Sakaguchi
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Sakaguchi by submission 10-15 minutes

Fight #7 is the Tournament Final

Intermission #1

 
Fight #8
Kinniku Mantaro vs Bob Sapp
(DREAM Rules)
Predition- Bob Sapp by Death
This has to be the strangest mismatch in MMA history. Bob Sapp isn’t just fighting some overmatched bum like usual, this time the bum is dressed up as an Anime character. A mate of mine who is a full blown geek told me if this was a cartoon Sapp could be in a whole world of trouble because apparently those guys know some serious shit, but in the real world Sapp crushes this guy with his 200lb weight advantage whenever he feels like it which knowing Sapp will be as soon as he feels like some pizza or gummycandy.

Fight #9
Mighty Mo vs Semmy Schilt
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Schilt by knockout first 10 minutes
Something that some of you newbies don’t know is that Schilt was an excellent fighter in PRIDE before he started kicking arse in K-1 and even won a few fights by submission. Mighty Mo is extremely outgunned in all areas of the fight here and will likely be dispatched quickly in the first round.

Fight #10
Hayato Sakurai vs Katsuyori Shibata
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Sakurai by knockout first 10 minutes

Fight #11
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Kozo Takeda
(K-1 Rules)
Prediction- Takeda on points
Even though he has good stand-up for MMA fighters, Kawajiri won’t hang with a K-1 MAX veteran in his sport no matter how out of form he is. This one might not go the distance but I think it will.

Fight #12
Badr Hari vs Alistair Overeem
(K-1 Rules)
Prediction- Hari by 2nd round knockout
This is the same as the last fight. Overeem has good stand-up skills for MMA, but against a top K-1 striker he’s outgunned. These two will likely meet in MMA next year and the same thing applies but in favour of Overeem this time.

Intermission #2

Fight #13
Hong Man Choi vs Mirko Cro Cop
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Hong Man by knockout first 10 minutes
I’m sick of going to bat for Mirko and picking him only for him to fight like shit. Hong Man will likely cause him all sorts of problems when they trade standing up and I don’t see Cro Cop getting the takedown when Fedor had to resort to pulling guard. Hong Man will catch Mirko at some stage and with those small gloves he’ll do a lot of damage. 

Fight #14
Gegard Mousasi vs MUSASHI
(K-1 Rules)
Prediction- Musashi on points
Same theme again as some previous fights. Despite MUSASHI being as out of form as he is, I don’t think the smaller MMA fighter will trouble him too much in a K-1 rules match. MUSASHI should dominate the fight with his leg kicks en route to a wide points win.

Fight #15
Mark Hunt vs Melvin Manhoef
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Hunt by TKO first 10 minutes
Le Banner must have pulled out with an injury because he was set to fight Mark Huny. Both Hunt and Manhoef are excellent kickboxers who have fought in MMA before, but the big difference between the two is the monsterous size advantage Hunt will have. I think at some stage this fight will hit the floor with Hunt on top and he’ll ground and pound Manhoef out.

Fight #16
Eddie Alvarez vs Shinya Aoki
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Alvarez by TKO first 10 minutes
Great matchup between the two guys who should have fought for the DREAM title at the Lightweight Grand Prix, but Alvarez was forced out with an injury leading the way for alternate (a man Alvarez had already beaten) Joachim Hansen to come in and knock Aoki out. Alvarez’s big weakness is on the ground defending submissions which is where Aoki specialises but Aoki’s big weakness is where Alvarez specialises with his huge knockout power. I think Aoki will pull guard but at some stage get caught with some heavy punches and will need the referee to rescue him.

Fight #17
JZ Calvancante vs Joachin Hansen
(DREAM Lightweight title)
Prediction- Hansen on points
This fight could likely go either way but I think Hansen will come out victorious due to his better ground skills. Both guys are well rounded and I think JZ will have an advantage standing up and may even knock Hansen out, but I think he’ll have a lot of trouble defending the takedown especially as the fight gets older and Hansen will score enough of them to take the decision.

Fight #18
Kazushi Sakuraba vs Kiyoshi Tamura
(DREAM Rules)
Prediction- Sakuraba on points
An excellent main event for a Japanese card like this matching two Japanese legends against one another. This prediction is probably more out of me wanting Sakuraba to win then anything, but he does have a great chance. It’s a real 50-50 fight with Sakuraba having the better ground skills and Tamura having his damaging leg kicks. I think Sakuraba will get Tamura on his back and control the fight from there, winning comfortably on the cards in a competetive matchup.

Happy New Year to all my readers!

DREAM/K-1 Dynamite looking good

I recently read an article about the upcoming DREAM/K-1 New Years Show which will feature a mixture of K-1 rules and DREAM MMA rules matches. I was pleasantly surprised at how well this fight card is looking. The things I was worried about were 1) a lack of Fedor who was meant to headline and b) a lack of Cro Cop-Alastair Overeem rematch which I’m still not sure why it was scrapped (help someone?). Still, a few of the K-1 WGP competitors have backed up and a few of the lightweights have stepped up to make this a very interesting card and one I will definately cover. I’m not sure what the main event will be and I don’t care because this is a stacked card for the hardcore MMA fans. In no particular order, here are the fights of interest:

Semmy Schilt vs Mighty Mo (MMA)
Whether this was K-1 or DREAM rules, Schilt is going to tear him a new one. Still, it’ll be good to see where Schilt’s confidence level is after losing to Aerts in the Final 16 as well as how he looks in MMA after a few years of not really competing in the sport on a full time basis.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Hong Man Choi
Not sure what rules this fight is under (again help somebody?) but this will be interesting either way. Fedor had trouble getting Choi on his back so this will be a stand-up war whether forced or by force of habbit between a former K-1 runner up in Cro Cop and a man mountain who troubles everyone in Hong Man. With 4oz gloves on it’ll be interesting to see how Cro Cops chin holds up to someone like Hong Man.

Mark Hunt vs Jerome Le Banner (MMA Rules)
So I hear anyway. Both guys are very similar standing up but due to Hunt’s MMA experience he’ll have a huge advantage if he gets Le Banner on his back, especially with the weight advantage. If this is indeed MMA rules I expect Hunt to win by ground and pound.

Eddie Alvarez vs Shinya Aoki
MMA rules of course here for what should have been the DREAM lightweight grand prix final. This will be an interesting scrap with Alvarez having the huge edge in strength and standing up and Aoki having a huge advantage on the ground. The winner will likely get a shot at the winner of the JZ vs Joachim Hansen fight on the same card for the title should DREAM not go bankrupt next year.

Joachin Hansen vs Gesias ‘JZ’ Calvacante
Another great fight here. I expect this to be fight of the night with both guys liking to bang on their feet. I’m leaning towards JZ by close decision but it could go either way.

Kazuhsi Sakuraba vs Kiyoshi Tamura
A battle between Japanese MMA pioneers/legends. As long as one guy doesn’t get injured walking into the ring it should be an excellent fight. I think Tamura might go to work on Sakuraba’s dodgey knees with his leg kicks and may score a stoppage in this fight.

Artur Kyshenko vs Yoshihiro Sato (K-1 Rules)
I really don’t know much about either guy other then they’re both K-1 MAX super stars. If MAX is all it’s cracked up to be then this could be a war!

Gegard Mousasi vs MUSASHI (K-1 Rules)
Strange fight this one. MUSASHI is a bigger guy but he’s been in shit form lately and why they’re getting Mousasi to go up in weight and fight a Heavyweight K-1 fighter in K-1 rules is a mystery to anyone. Even their name’s are the same which will make things confusing.

Oh, a quick word on the site. Next year looks like a go for boxing rankings and maybe MMA rankings for the five main divisions. Also I will be writing a feature article at the start of each month based on whatever anyone wants me to write it on. January’s will be the end of year awards. I’m looking to do things in there like ’10 greatest fights of the 80s’ or ‘Best MMA fighters of the 90s’ etc where basically I’m given a topic and I’ll go and research it for a month by watching fight films etc and then do an article on it for all you guys to flame me over. If anyone has anything in particular for February’s edition then post it in this thread. First decent idea in will get their choice. Expect a UFC 92 Predictions article and recap, a K-1 predictions article and recap plus the end of year awards and Rankings up over the next two-three weeks.

DREAM.6 post fight thoughts

DREAM.6 took place on Tuesday and I think everyone agrees that it didn’t live up to expectations. The tournament went down without a hitch though, but the rest of the fights left a sour taste in the mouths of most fans. Then to add to all of this, the ratings were something like half of what the DREAM people expected them to be, meaning this could be the end of high quality Japanese MMA. In my opinion anyway, MMA won’t be the same without the crazy Japanese woman screaming the fighters names out as they enter the ring on the giant ramp. It won’t be the same without the 10 minute first round (which I think all MMA should have) or the PRIDE/DREAM scoring system which I think works better in MMA then the 10 point must system ever will. Anyway enough mourning; onto the fights:

Mousasi wins the Grand Prix
Gegard Mousasi won a tournament that lasted less then five minutes total with a triangle choke over Melvin Manhoef and an upkick knockout over Ronaldo Jacare. Earlier in the night Jacare eliminated Galesic with an armbar in a little over a minute but in the final he shows he’s still got a bit of work to do. I’m sure he’ll be back better, but he seems to have a very suspect chin and could struggle against guys he can’t take down who can strike.
I had a bitch after the last DREAM event that the best fighter doesn’t usually win the tournaments, well that can’t be said about this one. Mousasi beat Denis Kang who was probably the favourite before it started in the first round, Yoon Dong-sik in the quarter finals, then the two guys who a lot of people picked to be in the final in Melvin Manhoef and Jacare in just over one and two minutes respectively. Mousasi is definately a top ten middleweight after this. He’s had a good run since he was eliminated by Akhiro Gono in the second PRIDE Bushido Welterweight (Middleweight) Grand Prix and with these four impressive wins in under a year he has definately proved he’s one of the better guys in the World. I’m not saying he’s going to challenge Anderson Silva or anything, but I’d definately like to see him fight someone like Trigg or Misaki if he were to fight in the USA and if the UFC signs him after DREAM goes under I’d be all for that as well. Oh yeah before I forget, who did I pick to win the tournament again?

Overeem “Golota’s” Cro Cop
The reference might be lost on some of you hardcore MMA fans but in the mid 90s there were two fights between former Undisputed Heavyweight Champion Riddick Bowe and up and comer Andrew Golota. In both fights Golota beat the dog shit out of Bowe, and then both times got himself disqualified for low blows when Bowe was basically ready to go. The same thing happened here.
Overeem is a fucking monster at 240lbs and he monstered Cro Cop. He beat him standing up and he battered him on the ground. The referee was disgraceful as he repeatedly stood the fighters up and gave Mirko a chance to win. The fight shouldn’t have been stood up at all. Mirko was cut over both eyes and taking a beating so Overeem starts kneeing him in the balls. He only got called for two of them, but there was at least one other clear nut shot and half a dozen border line at best shots that I saw. In my opinion Overeem should have been disqualified because he was warned and then went right back to doing it again. The fight was ruled a no contest and I (as well as probably everyone) was left thinking ‘well that sucked.’ It always sucks when the matchup of the night ends like that. I’d like to see them fight again but I’d also like to see Cro Cop retire because he hasn’t got it anymore.

Kharitonov vs some guy after Mighty Mo pulled out
The other match I was looking forward to was Sergei Kharitonov vs K-1 veteran Mighty Mo. Mighty Mo apparently got injured in training and pulled out at the last minute which was totally lame. Sergei then faced some guy I hadn’t heard of and beat him up.

Japanese fights
Probably the best non tournament fight of the night was Hayato Sakurai and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. Sakurai worked him over and won a unanimous decision. Sakurai looked good, but he really should be fighting lightweights. There was a noticeable size difference between the two of them and against someone who knows how to throw a punch he could be in trouble again. With KJ Noons out of EliteXC’s lightweight title picture, a fight between these two could be very interesting.
Funaki submitted The Punk with a heel hook a lot quicker then I expected but I got it right nonetheless. The Punk was stupid enough to wear shoes against a leg lock master and got punished for it.
Shinya Aoki won by rear naked neck crank.

All in all, the card didnt live up to expectations and I hope DREAM doesn’t go under before they put on another show. Maybe a show with Fedor on it for New Years Eve will be the thing they need to bring themselves out of trouble. Fedor was there and said he will be fighting in Japan on New Years Eve. Hopefully after this freakshow match (and I doubt it’ll be anything less and DILLIGAF) he’ll fight Arlovski (who’s been added to the EliteEX show next weekend against Roy Nelson) or Barnett.

DREAM.6 this week

The long awaited conclusion to the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix takes place this week (on Tuesday or Wednesday, whenever the 23rd is) and they’ve got some big names on the card. The return of PRIDE 2004 GP Semi Finalist Sergei Kharitonov who takes on K-1 star Mighty Mo as well as a highly anticipated matchup between Mirko Cro Cop and Alistair Overeem; not to mention the tournament semi finals and final! Then throw in fights with Japanese stars Hayato Sakurai, Shinya Aoki and a good matchup between PRIDE Bushido star Ikuhisa ‘The Punk’ Minowa, fresh off a win over UFC legend Don Frye, and Pancrase Legend Masakatsu Funaki and this is a very solid card. Let’s hope this isn’t DREAM’s last hurrah as the death of quality Japanese MMA would make things a little boring.

The Tournament
The four finalists in this tournament are Ronaldo Jacare, Gegard Mousasi, Melvin Manhoef and Zelg Galesic. A lot of people think Jacare is a shoe-in to take this title, not me. Pure submission guys tend to struggle in one night tournaments against quality opposition. My pick for this tournament is Mousasi because he’s the most well-rounded of all of the finalists.
I think he’ll submit Manhoef and then out point a weary Jacare in the final. Should Jacare have an easy nights work with Galesic (which I don’t think he will) then he should win this tournament. Galesic is a dangerous guy and I think he’ll take a lot out of the submission wrestling legend and Mousasi will be too fresh for him. There is a possibility that Mousasi is stupid enough to trade with Manhoef and get knocked out, in which case Jacare will rape him in the final no matter what condition he’s in.
Jacare is the best fighter out of these four and he would probably win the whole thing if he faced Manhoef in the first round and let Galesic and Mousasi kick the shit out of each other, but the draw favours Mousasi should he fight smart against Manhoef and put him on his back. So I think Jacare will win a gruelling battle on points against Galesic, Mousasi will submit Manhoef early and then out point Jacare in the final. There is also the possibility that the winner of the alternate bout between Yoon Dong-sik and Andrews Nakahara (Dong-sik should win this one) could win this tournament should someone get injured like last time.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Alistair Overeem
The saying goes ‘be careful what you wish for’ and that fits this scenario 100%. Overeem has been calling out Cro Cop for a long time. Cro Cop has fighting porrly for a good 18 months. The way Overeem has constantly called him out makes me think that Cro Cop will be taking this very seriously. I really think Cro Cop is going to brutalise Overeem and knock him out sometime during the first 10 minute period. Cro Cop is the bigger and stronger man and while Overeem may be the better technical striker, I think Cro Cop will simply overpower him. I’m really looking forward to this fight.

Sergei Kharitonov vs Mighty Mo
Kharitonov is an excellent boxer with great ground skills and wicked ground and pound. Mighty Mo is (was?) a world class kick boxer with little MMA experience. While Mighty Mo definately has the edge standing up, Kharitonov will dismantle him with ease when this fight hits the ground. We’ve seen Kharitonov in this situation before at PRIDE Critical Countdown 2004 when he faced future three time K-1 Grand Prix winner Semmy Schilt. Kharitonov took him down and beat him up until the fight was stopped. In Mighty Mo, Kharitonov faces a lesser kick boxer with a lot less MMA experience. This should be a cake walk for Kharitonov and I think he’ll win by either ground and pound or via submission within five minutes.

Ikuhisa Minowa vs Masakatsu Funaki
Its hard to figure out what Funaki has left. The two guys he’s fought in his comeback have both been better then Minowa (those two being Kiyoshi Tamura and Kazushi Sakuraba), but he’s been beaten up in both of those fights. Both guys are very good at submitting weaker foes, especially Minowa who really seems to be a gatekeeper in modern MMA. If you don’t know how to defend a submission, in particular a leglock, ‘The Punk’ will likely catch you in one. I’m picking Funaki in this fight because I think his recent outings have been more due to his opposition and I think he’s got enough left in the tank to make ‘The Punk’ tap out. This ending could be nasty as neither guy likes to submit, and I couldn’t imagine either wanting to tap out to the other guy. Expect a broken arm, leg or someone to go out as the way this fight ends.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs Hayato Salurai
 Recent UFC fighter Hironaka takes on Japanese legend Hayato Sakurai in another interesting all-Japanese battle. Hironaka has God awful stand-up and I think thats where Sakurai will win this fight. Sakurai is very well rounded for the type of fighter that he is and as long as he doesn’t have one of his extremely off nights that he’s famous for I think he’ll knock Kuniyoshi out. I mean if Jonathon Goulet is beating you on the feet then you know your stand-up is below par.

Shinya Aoki returns
Apparently Aoki is on the card as well against some no name American. I can’t imagine he’d be given a hard fight in his return.