Writing elsewhere

Since no one really reads this anyway and I couldn’t be bothered trying to drum up interest I don’t know why I’m even bothering putting this up, but this site won’t be used anymore and I’ll be writing over at www.theroar.com.au now. Any followers from here can read my stuff there.

UFC 129 Predictions

I’ve had some computer issues hence the lack of posts in the last week but there’s no better card to come back to then this one. Without a doubt this is the most stacked card of the year so far with two title fights as well as two fights with a lot of divisional significance behind them and a fun undercard (except for Matyushenko-Brilz) and it’s being held in front of 55,000 Canadian fans. In the main event Georges St Pierre takes on EliteXC Welterweight champion and Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields for the UFC Welterweight championship. St Pierre makes his sixth defence of the title he took from Matt Serra and looks to break a drought of decision wins which has gone back to January 2009! Shields was on a tear in the smaller shows, defeating Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and then upsetting Dan Henderson before signing with the UFC. He edged Martin Kampmann out at UFC 121 in October to earn the shot but has also defeated the likes of Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami in what is now a 15 fight win streak.

Co featuring see’s the first UFC Featherweight championship fight with reigning champion Jose Aldo defending against Canadian Mark Hominick. Aldo was the reigning WEC champion, technically making his third defence of the title having previously defended against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. Hominick is a former UFC fighter, competing at lightweight where he went 2-0 (beating Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel) before dropping to featherweight and the WEC. Hominick is riding a five fight win streak that saw him somehow get a split decision over Leonard Garcia and knock out George Roop at UFC Fight for the Troops in January. Also on the card UFC hall of famer Randy Couture will fight former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson makes his UFC debut against up and comer Mark Bocek.

Georges St Pierre vs Jake Shields
(UFC Welterweight Championship)
Prediction- St Pierre by third round stoppage
I really don’t like Shields at welterweight. I think the weight cut hurts him too much and his cardio is shit at this weight. He looks so much better at 185 where he can grind on an opponent for five rounds like he did to Henderson and Miller. I thought Shields looked ordinary against Martin Kampmann (to the point where I scored the fight to Kampmann) and had the Dane fought a smarter fight (ie not trying to guillotine someone with those sort of grappling credentials every chance he had and giving up takedowns to do it instead of just sprawling and using his superior striking) he would have won easily. I don’t think Shields will get St Pierre down and if he does I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him there long enough to set up a submission. He’ll be forced to fight GSP in a stand-up battle and his stand-up quite frankly is poo and his chin is suspect. St Pierre will outwork him, Shields will gas and GSP will get his first stoppage win since BJ Penn.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
(UFC Featherweight Championship)
Prediction- Aldo on points
Hominick is one of the few guys who will offer Aldo a test on the feet. He’s a world class kickboxer and while his power isn’t overly devastating it’s solid and he’s technically sound. I just think that Aldo will be too quick and explosive. He’ll control the pace, keep the fight on the outside where he can land his jab and his leg kicks and I don’t see him leaving his comfort zone to try and take Hominick to the ground to get the finish. Hominick will last because he’s tough, and he might even make a round or two close but Aldo will be too quick, too confident and too good and will win by a wide margin.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Machida by second round knockout
(knockout of the night pick)
I’d be more confident in Couture if I’d seen him fight at a decent level in the last 12-18 months. He hasn’t had a proper test since Brandon Vera in November 2009 and he struggled in that fight with Vera’s takedown defence and muay thai skills. Machida’s movement and unorthodox striking I think will work well against Couture’s attempts to tie him up and his takedown defence is very strong. The thing that worries me for Randy is I think his resistance to punishment has dropped significantly. Coleman rocked him with a right hand briefly in their fight, Vera dropped him with a body kick and was hurting him with knees to the body and Nogueira dropped him twice and I don’t think any of those guys have the power that Machida does (even Nogueira who is 30-40lb heavier). Machida’s style works well against guys who can’t beat him standing. Couture might get him to the fence where he can use his inside game and punish Machida from the single collar tie with elbows and uppercuts, but I think he’ll take too much coming in and Machida will eventually knock him out.

Jason Brilz vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Prediction- Brilz on points
Why this fight is on the main card is beyond me. It’ll be a clinch fest with very little striking and I think Brilz has the more well rounded game and will win a snoozer.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
(fight of the night pick)
Henderson’s wrestling and striking will get him the decision but I see him having to get out of multiple submission attempts from Bocek who has one of the nastiest submission games at 155lbs. This fight should be high tempo with good scrambles on the ground and while they probably won’t be the most technical punch exchanges on the feet, they should be fun. I think Henderson’s hips and ability to stay on top will get him the edge in most rounds. It should be close and it should be very entertaining.

Preliminaries
Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald
Prediction- Diaz by third round submission
(submission of the night pick)
I won’t rule MacDonald out completely in this fight but I don’t think he has the strength to dominate Diaz on the floor or the experience to get out of submissions. He’ll do well early but Diaz’s technical advantages will take over and he’ll pick MacDonald apart on the feet and punish him there before catching him in something late.

Jake Ellenberger vs Sean Pierson
Prediction- Ellenberger on points
I admittedly have only seen Pierson once, but Ellenberger seems to have the advantage here being the better credentialled wrestler. Plus I feel he’ll have something to prove after an average showing against Rocha in his last fight.

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts
Prediction- Patrick by first round submission
Another fight I’m very much looking forward to. Both guys have sneaky submission games and a good deal of smaller show experience behind them. I like Patrick and have been a fan for a while and I think he’ll deliver in front of his hometown fans and he’ll catch Roberts early with a submission. The longer the fight goes the better Roberts will do but I think he gets caught dry by the more experienced fighter.

Ivan Menjivar vs Charles Valencia
Prediction- Valencia on points
Menjivar’s game is a little out of date in my opinion. He’s a tough guy and he’s given some good fighters hard fights over the years but Valencia has been more consistent lately, even if his game isn’t top shelf. Loser goes home I think, and the winner gets fed to an up and comer.

Ryan Jensen vs Jason MacDonald
Prediction- MacDonald by second round submission
Jensen is always entertaining. His fights never go the distance and I don’t think this one will either. MacDonald gets another crack at keeping his UFC career alive and I think he drew a good matchup. Jensen has a habbit of getting himself caught in armbars and chokes in fights his winning and I think this one goes the same way.

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson
Prediction- Watson by first round submission
Makdessi is an interesting prospect ith a background in taekwondo and karate. He’s gone 8-0 and while I’ve only seen his last fight, I think Kyle Watson is a step up for him. Watson has good takedowns and solid top control and submissions. He’s patient and makes few mistakes and I think he’ll get Makdessi down and show up the Canadian as having a lack of ground game. It’s a good test for a striking prospect, but it’ll have to be put don to a learning curve I think.

Pablo Garza vs Yves Jabouin
Prediction- Garza by first round submission
For those of you who don’t know Garza, he was one of the better guys on the TUF GSP vs Koscheck show. The trouble was he drew eventual runner-up Michael Johnson in the first round of fights by hard fought decision and didn’t end up on the show. He won by brutal knockout on the finale and Jabouin won’t be able to handle him. His submissions are nasty and his stand-up is explosive. He’ll struggle with the wrestlers but a fight like this is made for him.

UFC: Rio shaping up, Shogun-Griffin II to co-main event

The card for UFC’s return to Brazil is starting to take shape and is looking to be one of the more entertaining cards of the year, on paper at least. Middleweight king Anderson Silva is expected to take on the last man to hold a victory over him in Yushin Okami (as bogus as that win was, another story for another day) in the main event of the night, a fun rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions will co-feature. Recently disposed of UFC Light Heavyweight champion and former PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua takes on the man who ruined his UFC debut in Forrest Griffin. These two previously met at UFC 76 in September of 2007 with Griffin winning in a war via rear naked choke in the closing seconds of the fight.

I really think this is a bad matchup for Shogun coming off the battering he received from Jones. Griffin is another big guy with solid fundamentals who has the ability to shut down Shogun’s game with his size, plus he is a much more polished fighter then he was when he took on Shogun in 2007. That fight was the fight that Griffin showed what he had in and he’s only improved since. In saying that though, Shogun didn’t have much in the way of cardio in that first fight and Griffin’s chin has since been exposed a few times so it’s a hard fight to call. Rematches in MMA are often so hard to predict especially when you have two top guys fighting four years after they first fought. Fighters and fighting evolve and change so much in four years that it’s hard to picture how the fight will go the second time around. One thing I think this fight won’t be is boring, the way these two fight (especially if Shogun brings cardio this time) it’s going to be a high tempo dog fight with either Shogun’s cardio or Griffins chin giving out. I am leaning towards Griffin though, I think he’s a bad style matchup for Shogun and it may be the push Shogun needs to think about dropping to 185.

Also on this card is another fun slugfest featuring PRIDE 2005 Lightweight Grand Prix champion Takanori Gomi against rising Brazilian Edson Barboza. Barboza is 2-0 in his UFC career and 8-0 overall, coming off a points win over Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128. Gomi’s coming off a loss to Clay Guida and will need to put the prospect away in order to stay relevant in the division. Add to this the possible return of Royce Gracie and it should be an entertaining card (if not the most important one of the year).

Why MMA will take over Boxing in Australia

How well would the boxing kangaroo fight off it's back?

With one night to go until the UFC makes it’s much anticipated Australian debut, everything in this country is set up for MMA to finally push boxing into the past and emerge as the future of combat sports down under. With the shoddy state of boxing in Australia at the moment, about the only thing that will stop MMA from moving past boxing would be an ugly incident either in the Octagon or in the crowd at next Sundays event. With even the head honcho’s involved with boxing not caring about it’s future, but rather trying to milk every last cent out of it right now, yet the people in charge of MMA trying to build the sport’s long term future it’s only inevitable that boxing be taken over by the new sport.  

With the small coverage MMA has received in Australia it has a cult following among the people who know about it. The guys who know lots about it get their friends into it, albeit at a much smaller level. The effect of this is like that of a trail of gun powderand the UFC 110 card in Sydney tomorrow is the spark that will explode MMA into a more mainstream sport in Australia. Tomorrow’s show sold out inside of a week with probably 90% of the tickets selling before they were open to the public meaning that there will likely be a second show sometime in the not to distant future (likely next year around the same time). With hardly any big boxing fights taking place in Australia (Australia’s main promoter Angelo Hyder is stuck in the late 90s thinking that big names that Australians want to see are Roy Jones jnr, Evander Holyfield and Mike Tyson, three men ten years past their best), an annual UFC event will only help the sport grow. The fact that One HD has scrapped it’s “Super Boxer” series and shows next to no current boxing, yet they will show UFC 110 live tomorrow for free is also a big sign of what is to come in the future. 

The bottom line is that Boxing in this country is a joke. The fact that Australians will go to the pub or fork out $50 to watch a Mundine pay per view to see him fight some fringe South American contender while some Rugby League star has a pub brawl with a guy who wouldn’t even be club level material anywhere else in the world yet they couldn’t tell you who the heavyweight champion of the world is is of major concern. Nothing is done to push boxing back into the spotlight or develop some of the upcoming fighters. Even the recent Australian version of ‘The Contender’ left out decent prospects like Jamie Pittman, a man who has the skills to be a threat on the world stage but lacks the exposure that a show like ‘The Contender’ would have given him to be able to build a following in this country. There are plenty of guys out there like Jamie Pittman who are talented boxers but just can’t build the following down here that they would have otherwise done if boxing was taken seriously. Sure Pittman is very well known to the boxing public, but do you really think the Captain of the Australian Olympic Boxing team would be struggling to get televised or even get decent fights in England or the USA? Yet guys like Sonny Bill Williams and Carl Webb get main support fights on what is probably the biggest stage in Australian boxing (the Mundine shows) and probably earn just as much!  

The production value of boxing shows is also a major problem with boxing in Australia. The fact that  MORON like Andy Raymond, who is a Rugby League commentator with no clue about anything boxing is the voice of the sport down here is nauseating. The ring announcers have no idea how to properly announce a show, and yes there is a proper and improper way of doing things. For one, you don’t announce the rules of the bout while the fighters are in the ring waiting to get it on (see the Green-Jones prelims for an example). You don’t announce a close decision in favour of ”the red corner” in the biggest domestic fight of the year (see Mundine-Geale decision) when no one pays any attention which corner they’re fighting out of. It’s painful watching a high profile boxing card in Australia because you can tell that the people in charge of running it have no idea what they’re doing. I rarely watch local Fox Sports boxing shows anymore because of how bad it is (that and the mismatches that they often have). You don’t need four or five ring girls dancing in the ring between rounds with dance music playing (you didn’t see this on say the Pacquiao-Cotto card for example did you?). You don’t need to show the Australian rankings after every fight and you definately don’t need to show random rounds out of insignificant fights from past local shows when you’ve got nothing else to do. One of the main strengths of the UFC is the production value. They do an amazing job of hyping up the fights with pre fight interviews, a highly energetic ring announcer and the right amount of tits and arse between rounds with the focus being more on the fighters which is what the people watching paid to see. 

Should the UFC 110 card deliver tomorrow, expect to see a rise in regional MMA shows and an even further drop in local pro-am boxing cards. With more and more people already turning to kickboxing or jiu jitsu, there’s bound to be an emergence of competitors willing to try their luck with 4oz gloves instead of the 12oz gloves and headgear that amateur boxers use. There are already a number of good fighters from Australia and New Zealand (two of them fight tomorrow night on the main card) and if some of them can increase their celebrity down here to a slightly mainstream audience, something that say a victory for George Sotiropolous over Joe Stevenson tomorrow night would do, it’s only going to help the MMA cause down under. Boxing has been on a slow decline in this country since the late 80′s when we had our last batch of Australian contenders who actually fought one another. Sure there’s been a slight resurgence with the likes of Anthony Mundine and Danny Green and Daniel Geale, but our best fighters (Vic Darchinyan and Michael Katsidis) both fight overseas and have a bigger following in the USA then they do down here. No longer are the days of TV ringside where contenders were brought up through the tough local circuit and had to earn their status when fighters like Hector Thompson, Tony Mundine and Paul Ferreri gave the world champions of the day, men who are among the greatest to have ever entered a boxing ring in their respective divisions, some of the toughest fights of their career. The state of boxing today is one of prospects not learning their craft through overprotection and mismatches who end up taking the massive step up in class that they aren’t ready for and when they lose those that were paying attention to them no longer do while the rest of Australia who aren’t as into boxing as someone like me is go on watching their Mundine cards and having a laugh when the two heavyweights start trading arm punches with their chin in the air. MMA has slowly been taking over in America, and although boxing is run pretty badly over there, it’s not nearly as bad as it is down here. All that is needed to start the MMA frenzy is for the biggest promotion in the world to bring one of its shows down here to get some mainstream attention.

Couture ends Coleman’s UFC career

Randy Couture easily defeated Mark Coleman at UFC 109 in the hall of famers match in the main event by rear naked choke. Couture couldn’t miss with his strikes as he battered Coleman from the outside early in the fight. Coutures pace briefly slowed after he was seemingly rocked by a Coleman right hand, but after shaking off the blow Couture turned his attention to the clinch where he punished ‘The Hammer’ with his dirty boxing to finish out the first round. After more of the same early in the 2nd round, Couture scored a takedown and ended up in mount. Coleman gave up his back after taking some punches and Couture scored an easy rear naked choke which put the 2000 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix winner to sleep.

The win was probably Couture’s easiest since his first appearance in the UFC. Coleman had absolutely no answers for any of Couture’s game. He didn’t shoot in once, his boxing was as terrible as it’s ever been and while he took a beating, Couture has never really had knockout power in his punches. The only thing that really stood out for me in this fight was the fact that Couture was rocked by the one punch Coleman did land. This for me further emphasises the fact that Couture’s punch resistance and durability has worn thin over the years. As a major Couture fan, I don’t look forward to him fighting one of the younger, more dangerous opponents at 205lbs.

As for Coleman, he has since been cut from the UFC and hopefully he has made some decent money in his last few fights. I’m also glad that Tito Ortiz’s attempts to salvage the Coleman fight were shut down quick as I believe that Ortiz was looking for an easy win and seeing how Ken Shamrock no longer fights in the UFC, he went for the next best thing, another mid forties UFC hall of famer who’s time was in another era. Fighting Ortiz would have been pointless as the man is an absolute legend of the sport having twice been considered the best fighter in the world at different periods in the game and also being one of the men who changed the approach to the sport. Before Coleman most of the real top level wrestlers got takedowns and either held position or in rare circumstances went for submissions. None of them dished out the sort of punishment that Coleman did from top position. Coleman also paved the way for many other top wrestlers to get involved with MMA with the likes of Mark Kerr, Kevin Randleman and Kevin Jackson soon joining Colemans training camp and then going on to win titles in the UFC.

On the undercard, Chael Sonnen earned the number one contenders slot with a gruelling unanimous decision win over Nate Marquadt. Marquadt looked good for the first minute, scoring with some solid punches before Sonnen got the first of many takedowns in the fight. From on top, Marquadt had few answers for Sonnen’s relentless top game and was controlled and punished for the first two rounds. Sonnen survived some scary moments in the third round, including a guillotine choke that only seemed to fail because Marquadts hands slipped apart, but he earned the unanimous decision and the right to face Anderson Silva (should he get by Vitor Belfort Demian Maia in April).

Sonnen-Silva should be interesting and probably the first interesting Middleweight title fight since Silva unified the belts by beating PRIDE champion Dan Henderson. Sonnen has already trash talked Silva and with a victory over Paulo Filho, Silva wil be motivated to avenge his friends loss. I think you can expect to see Silva bring out his A-game on Sonnen when they fight but then again I wouldn’t count Vitor Belfort out of the UFC 112 bout. Belfort has serious knockout power, the likes of which Silva probably hasn’t dealt with in his career. Out of anyone I give Vitor the best crack at beating Silva.

(Since writing this I learnt that Belfort is in fact out of UFC 112 and Demian Maia has taken his place on the card).

In other results, Matt Serra scored a big first round knockout over Frank Trigg. Seriously, if you didn’t think Serra was a top ten welterweight for some stupid fucking reason before this, I think this settles it. Serra is a dangerous fight for anyone at 170lbs. Demian Maia grinded out a unanimous decision win over Dan Miller. Paulo Thiago made it 2-1 v AKA fighters, choking Mike Swick out with a Darce choke which was executed after a knockdown. Thiago is going to be an extremely dangerous fighter in a year or so once he irons out some of the roughness to his game.

(Sorry for the week off, I’ve been busy again and seeing how there were no fights on this weekend I thought I’d catch up then.)

Legends Collide at UFC 109

Some fights just aren’t meant to happen.

The history behind tomorrow’s UFC 109 main event between Hall of Famer’s Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture and Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman suggested that this was one of those fights. Originally scheduled to meet at UFC 17 in Coleman’s return fight from his shock loss to Maurice Smith (he would have challenged Couture for the heavyweight title Couture won from Smith at ‘Ultimate Japan’), Couture was forced off the show with an injury paving the way for youngster Pete Williams to fight Coleman and shockingly KO Coleman with a highlight reel head kick. Couture left the UFC not long after, heading to Japan’s RINGS organisation where he’d lose three fights between 1998 and 2001 while Coleman lost a decision to Pedro Rizzo before heading towards the PRIDE.

With both fighters careers looking to be closing down, they both turned it around in 2000. Coleman outlasted a field of eight top competitors to win the PRIDE 2000 Open Weight Grand Prix, a tournament billed to crown the best fighter on the planet (with the exception of two or three UFC fighters at the time, it pretty much did) while Couture returned to the UFC and defeated their heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman before defending it twice against Pedro Rizzo in explosive battles. Again Couture and Coleman were at the top of the sport and were the subjects of the first PRIDE vs UFC champions debate, but their meeting wouldn’t happen. Coleman lost his title to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and his career went on a slide from there while Couture did his thing in the UFC (do I really need to go into detail on what everyone already knows on Couture?) and the fight hasn’t really been talked about since.

Tomorrow the two MMA legends meet at Light Heavyweight in the main event of the UFC’s annual super bowl weekend card (for anyone who gives a shit I’m picking the Colts). The fight is of little significance right now. Although it does push Couture very close to another title shot should he win, should Coleman win he’ll likely be fed to an up and comer and brutalised. Still, probably the most anticipated fight in MMA history (apart from the one where somehow or another Fedor fights the reigning UFC Heavyweight champion) was when Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva were ruling their respective organisations’ 205lb divisions, and when they eventually fought it was off the back of consecutive losses and their fight was an absolute war. The Couture-Coleman fight is definately one to check out.

While both men come from wrestling backgrounds (Coleman was a 92 Olympian, Couture was two time Olympic alternate) their styles are much different now. Coleman has often been criticised for not evolving and his style very much relies on his ability to get the fight to the ground and get on top. Couture on the other hand as learnt how to box and has learnt submissions and learnt them to the levels where he has used them to win fights. Couture’s weaknesses have been against much bigger guys or guys who could hurt him standing and stuff his takedowns. Coleman definately has the wrestling pedigree to stuff Couture’s takedowns, but his stand-up has always been primitive in terms of technique. The other big factor besides the overall game of both men is conditioning. Couture is always in top shape while Coleman has lost many fights due to his lack of gas. Even though Couture’s durability has looked suspect in recent fights and while Coleman probably looked the best he’s ever looked in his last fight, I doubt he can outstrike or outlast The Natural.

I think this fight will see a clinch battle for the first round with both men trying to get the other on their back. The big difference will be that Couture will likely score with punches that lead to the clinch and then will likely have the upper hand in the ‘dirty boxing’ game which he is a master of. Couture’s clinch game will wear on Coleman’s conditioning which will make Coleman’s takedown shots become desperate and open him up to punches as well as takedowns from Couture himself. I think if Couture gets on top at anytime in this fight he’ll end it, while if Coleman gets on top Couture will probably escape. I really don’t see anyway in which Coleman wins this fight unless he somehow outworks Couture. I can see the fight ending in one of three ways; ground and pound, rear naked choke or some sort of choke off the sprawl with Coleman too gassed to fight it. Either way I think Randy Couture wins this fight in the 2nd round.

The undercard is fairly appetising with the co-main event to decide the next Middleweight title challenger. With Nate Marquadt’s defeat of Damian Maia and Chael Sonnen being the man to finally defeat Yushin Okami as well as Dan Henderson’s depature from the UFC, the winner of this fight is the most logical challenger for the title since Henderson himself. This fight is interesting in terms of style, similar to the Couture-Coleman fight, as Sonnen has a strong wrestling base while Marquadt is the more well-rounded fighter. Marquadt is definately the more dangerous fighter in terms of striking and submissions, but Sonnen’s wrestling is that good that he could overwhelm Marquadt and take a decision. Sonnen has been submitted in the past, but I’d hardly but Marquadt in the submission league of Damian Maia, Jeremy Horn or Paulo Filho. Still, I think Marquadt’s well rounded game will give him the edge, and I think he’ll win a close decision in a competitive fight (I’d like to see Sonnen win just to see him cop a bashing at the hands of Anderson Silva because he’s an A-grade douche bag).

Also on the main card, Mike Swick attempts to further avenge the knockout Paulo Thiago inflicted on fellow AKA fighter Josh Koscheck (Fitch already beat him last year). I don’t see Thiago handling Swick. His striking, despite scoring the knockout over Koscheck, is full of holes and Swick is the best striker from AKA and I think he’ll tear Thiago a new one inside a few minute. Former Welterweight champion Matt Serra takes on Frank Trigg in a semi-old school battle as both men have been around sinde the 90s. I think Trigg will finally do the job and send Serra back down to 155lbs where he should be, although Serra is going to be dangerous for the entire fight with his knockout power and submissions. Trigg’s size advantage and wrestling base should see him through to a decision win. Damian Maia also returns, taking on Dan Miller. Miller has the tools to make this fight hard for the submission ace, but I think this fight hits the ground at some point and Maia submits him when it does.

On the undercard, Mac Danzig should break his losing streak against Justin Bucholz, I’m picking Ronny Torres to submit Melvin Guillard because he’s a BJJ fighter and Guillard has no submission defence, Nover to destroy Rob Emerson, Rolles Gracie and Phil Davis to win their UFC debuts and YAMMA Pit Fighting veteran Chris Tuschererererererer to defeat Tim Hague.

Strikeforce: Miami Preview

The first promotion by Strikeforce this year is a very solid card with two interesting title fights as well as a potential fight of the year candidate and fights by two of the biggest cross-over stars in the sport. In the main event, Middleweight giant killer Nick Diaz returns to his natural weight class of 170lbs after stopping both Frank Shamrock and Scott Smith last year to take on DREAM Welterweight champion Marius Zaromskis for the vacant Strikeforce Welterweight title. The Women’s lightweight championship is up for grabs as well with defending champion Cristiane ‘Cyborg’ Santos defending against Marloes Coenen. Probably the most eagerly awaited clash of the night is what should deliver either a fight of the year candidate or a knockout of the year candidate (or both) with big punching Robbie Lawler fighting K-1 star Melvin Manhoef.

Diaz vs Zaromskis
The title fight between Diaz and Zaromskis is going to be a good battle. Zaromskis has shown last year that he is one of the more powerful fighters in the 170lb division but there’s still a few unknowns about him. Very little is known of the Lithuanian’s ground game and it will also be interesting to see if his new found success will help him when he fights someone with decent stand-up skills. Enter Nick Diaz. Diaz is a great jiu jitsu player who prefers to use his good boxing skills to beat down his opponents often while talking trash to them. One way or another we’re going to get some answers about Marius in this fight.

Those of you who have followed MMA for a few years know about Diaz. He debuted in the UFC when he was only 20 and made a real name for himself when he knocked out Robbie Lawler in his 2nd fight for the organisation. His UFC career went up and down with his eventual mark ending at 6-4 when he was brought into PRIDE to battle their dominant lightweight Takanori Gomi in a non title affair. Diaz won the fight with the rare gogoplata submission from the guard after a stand-up war only for the decision to be overturned for marijuana use. Since then he lost to KJ Noons in EliteXC, had Noons leave MMA to avoid a rematch and then put in two memorable performances to defeat Shamrock and Smith last year.

I really think this fight is Diaz’s to lose. We know Zaromskis has power, especially with his kicks. Diaz has a habbit of standing up with guys he really should be taking to the ground, although it doesn’t hurt him very often, this time it could. His best bet lies in taking Marius to the ground and working his excellent ground game. Zaromskis has been winning most of his fights quickly lately while Diaz has proved in the past that he has good conditioning so I think Marius’ best chances lie early in the fight. Diaz also has a good chin so it’s going to take some big shots to take him out, but I think his boxing should allow him to survive Marius’ stand-up and eventually the fight will hit the ground and Diaz will end in there. Nick Diaz by 2nd round submission.

Cyborg vs Coenen
I really don’t see any fighters in this division who will be able to survive Cyborg right now. Coenen has a solid ground game, but Cyborg’s aggression and pitbull-like tenacity is equivalent to when Wanderlei Silva was destroying the poor Japanese contenders back in 2001-2002 in PRIDE. I don’t think this fight will last very long, Cyborg by first round stoppage.

Lawler vs Manhoef
The one thing Lawler has in this fight that could make it interesting is that he is a solid wrestler, having learnt his game from the famed Miletich camp who at one stage held three UFC champions out of it’s camp at one time, and now training with Matt Hughes. There’s no doubt that Manhoef is the bigger puncher and the better striker. Could you imagine Lawler being able to hang in there in a stand-up fight with Remy Bonjasky? I hope Lawler delivers and comes to strike with Manhoef because it’ll be entertaining while it lasts, but Manhoef should win. Melvin Manhoef by first round knockout.

The Rest
Lashley and Walker by rape. Riggs-Hieron is an interesting fight, but I think Hieron will win on points.

I’m Back (again)

Apologies for the lack of anything over the last few months, my personal life got in the way and I just didn’t have the motivation to write anything on here. I’m back now and will make time to do what I usually do on here. Anyway, over the last few months:

- Dynamite was awesome as usual. I particularily enjoyed the extended MAX fight in the main event between Masato and Andy Souwer. Usually these guys have trouble getting warmed up over three rounds and to see them fight over five was very special. Main Event or someone should really pick this shit up and show it down here because its an awesome show and now with Sengoku’s roster available this is going to be a yearly highlight much like Shockwave was back in the day.

- The UFC slump appears to be over with some good fights coming up. The real highlight over the recent events was BJ Penn’s schooling of Diego Sanchez. Fuck fighting Frankie Edgar, this guy should vacate and earn a third fight with GSP by fighting Matt Hughes a third time (Hughes did beat him in their last fight) and then someone like Fitch.

- Pacquiao was awesome against Cotto and it’s extremely irritable that Mayweather came up with special demands in order to make the fight, demands that Pacquiao didn’t come to terms with. Mayweather is in no position to ask for procedures outside of what is required by the NSAC and the fact that the fight fell apart because of this really pisses me off. Pacquiao is not to blame here, he’s not some 2nd rate chump sho has to dance by Mayweathers tune. He’s the draw right now with his string of impressive KO wins while Mayweather is riding the momentum of outpointing a man three weight divisions below him. Hopefully Mosley makes mince meat of Berto and then him and Mayweather get it on, that’ll at least give me something to look forward to in the world of boxing.

- As for Danny Green, full respect for the win and full respect for chasing Bernard Hopkins, but Holyfield and Tyson? Seriously this shows the lack of boxing coverage down here if they want to sell these fights to us. No one gives a shit about those two anywhere else in the world anymore. Green needs to call out Chad Dawson if he wants to prove he is the best. And one more thing, Green is not a cruiserweight despite what his ‘world title’ suggests. He’s a light heavyweight who didn’t bother losing the 5lb to make it official in his last fight who picked up a belt that not many people care about in order to try and sell the Jones fight as something other then a 40 year old has been vs a decent contender. To go even further, Green is definately not the 2nd best Cruiserweight in the world which certain Australian boxing publications would have you believe.

UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun; why Shogun shouldn’t be ruled out

UFC 104 is now just a few hours away and despite any lack of depth to the card, the main event gives an almost boxing-like feel to the card with the magnitude of the fight. I write this article mainly because of the lack of a chance people seem to be giving Shogun to win. Having seen a lot of Shogun’s MMA career, I know for a fact that he stands an excellent chance and while I think he’ll have to fight a near perfect fight to win this fight, I honestly think he will win it. No one is invincible and that includes Lyoto Machida and I feel style wise that Shogun has the best chance to win this fight and here’s why:

Muay Thai
Shogun brings something that is yet to be seen by Machida in his MMA career in terms of Shogun’s excellent Thai Boxing skills. Shogun is the stereotypical Muay Thai fighter in that his knees and kicks are far better then his hands (don’t let the Liddell left hook KO fool you, that was set up with the numerous leg kicks he had landed earlier in the round). Leg kicks, if properly utilised, will be a big factor in this fight for the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix champion as Machida relies heavily on his foot speed to work the unorthodox angles that he uses to avoid strikes. If Shogun finds a home for a few well placed low kicks early in the fight, Machida’s foot speed should slow allowing for Shogun to work his top level clinch game and takedowns as well as being able to better capitilise on Machida’s hands down approach. With his legs unable to move him out of range at the speed he likes, fighting with his hands down will be a dangerous approach and something that history in combat sports has told us is that the fighters with the better defensive game are usually over compensating for a weaker chin.

Foot Speed
Machida’s uncanny agility for a man of his size is what has given everyone he’s faced problems in their fights. Shogun’s foot speed was also legendary back in his PRIDE days where he could trap even the most fleet footed opponents up against the ropes. The difference here is the size of the UFC Octagon and the PRIDE ring aren’t even comparable. However, a recent quote from Shogun says that he is now comfortable with the Octagon size and has altered his game to adjust to the larger fighting surface. I think with Shogun’s mobility he’ll be able to cut the distance quicker then anyone Machida has faced and land those leg kicks or get that clinch where he can do damage to Machida.

Conditioning/Durability
Machida is used to fighting at the pace he likes to fight at. I really think he has to get Shogun out of there in the first two or three rounds if he wants to win this fight because of the pace Shogun sets. Shogun set a world class pace in his glory days in PRIDE and either he’s going to get caught early or his pace will wear on Machida. Apart from the odd hiccup in his fights, Machida has fought his entire career at the pace he wants to and has never been through a long war into the late rounds. Shogun sinks opponents with the pace he sets as he is relentless and as soon as they slow down a little bit he becomes overwhelming. With so many questions being asked about his conditioning due to the Coleman and Griffin fights, the question people should also be asking is what happens if Shogun is in shape (which considering the magnitude of the fight is the more likely scenario) and he gets Machida into a dog fight that lasts past the 2nd or 3rd round? Shogun has been into the late rounds in tough fights, Machida hasn’t. Can Machida handle the pace if he’s actually pushed? Shogun also has a solid chin and while Machida is an excellent puncher, I think he’ll have to batter the former Chute Boxe member in order to finish him.

Ground Game
Most noted for his Muay Thai game, people who watched Shogun in his PRIDE days know that the best aspect of his game is probably his ground game. Shogun’s top game is as dangerous as anyone due to his unorthodox ways of striking from the guard as well as his escapes from the bottom (something UFC fans would have seen against both Coleman and Griffin) and his submissions, in particular his leg locks, are deadly. Should this fight hit the ground you’d have to give Shogun a huge advantage. While Machida is a black belt himself and has won by submission, I really don’t think his ground game is at the level of Shoguns and considering the fight is unlikely to hit the ground unless Shogun has enforced his game on Machida somewhat. In that case I think a tired Machida will struggle to deal with a fired up Shogun on top of him.

In saying that…..
There’s a lot that has to go right for Shogun to win this fight. Machida’s hands are far superior and he’ll be the crisper fighter early on in this fight. Plus we really don’t know how good Shogun is off the back of a knockout win over a (seemingly) over the hill Chuck Liddell (to be fair to Liddell, all of his KO losses have come to guys who have gone on to be UFC champions). The last two times Shogun has been into the late rounds he has struggled with his fitness and it even cost him in his fight with Forrest Griffin. But with this being the biggest fight of Shogun’s career, you have to assume it will be the best Shogun we’ve seen and for those of you who have seen what he was capable of in his 2005 run to win the PRIDE Grand Prix you’d all know that this guy is a serious threat. All these so called experts on some of the sites have written Shogun off because Machida is the more hyped fighter of the moment and has looked unbeatable and have even gone to the extremes to say this is a meaningless title defence. To them I say, do your homework, learn the history of the sport and don’t go jumping on every bandwagon that comes along. As a long-time Shogun fan, I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Mauricio Shogun will win by 4th round TKO after kicking Machida’s legs out early and imposing his deadly clinch and top game on him in the later rounds.

Aoki submits Hansen in controversial rubber match

DREAM.11 took place yesterday and I’m still a tiny bit confused about what happened in the headlining fight. Part of that is because I’m yet to see the fight with English commentary but I’ve been reading that Aoki’s submission came in the dying seconds of the fight when I was sure that DREAM title fights were fought over the old PRIDE time limit with two (not one like in most DREAM fights) additional five minute rounds after the opening 10. Aoki’s submission came with what I thought was a few seconds remaining in the 2nd round, but most sites are reporting that Aoki pulled the fight out of the bag (I thought he was a mile in front) with little time left in the fight. The other confusing part of this fight for me is the controversy surrounding the upkicks. Again some English commentary would probably clear this all up for me, but I thought upkicks were legal in DREAM and that Aoki was knocked out. The reports being circulating are that Aoki was kicked in the groin (I missed it when I watched it this morning but it was 6am so I’ll have another look later), but considering he was only really bothered about the head injury I’m a little skeptical on this. Still if he was kicked in the groin before the head injury you can’t reward Hansen with a victory that he earned by capitilising on an illegal strike.

The fight itself was a good ground battle. I expected Hansen’s takedown defence to be a bit better but his ground game has always been good enough to beat most fighters so it’s an area he hasn’t needed to work on as much. Aoki’s flexibility is just uncanny and his unorthodox method of passing guard is hard for anyone to deal with. Hansen didn’t give himself as much of a chance as he could have as he never allowed himself to get in a position where his power advantage could be used but a lot of that was due to Aoki’s gameplan. There is talk of Aoki facing fellow Japanese fighter Tatsuya Kawajiri at Dynamite. If that fight takes place I think Kawajiri will knock Aoki into next week.

The Featherweight Grand Prix produced some fireworks and some more controversy. Bibiano shocked Joe Warren in the semi finals before narrowly defeating Hiroyuki Takaya by split decision in the final. It was good to see Fernandes win as he was thrown to the wolves early in his career (he fought Urijah Faber and Kid Yamamoto in his 2nd and 3rd fights respectively which are his only two losses) and he is a very talented fighter. Takaya could be the Japanese superstar of the lower weight divisions with his never say die attitude. His last three fights were all memorable wars (although the two yesterday aren’t nearly as good as the fight with Maeda). The all Japanese semi final between Hideo Tokoro and Takaya was a great fight, but I don’t think it was as good as everyone was making out. Takaya dominated most of the fight and except for that brief scare when Tokoro caught him with the flying knee and series of shots that briefly dropped him it was all one way traffic. The other semi final saw Bibiano Fernandes score a controversial “submission” win over Joe Warren. After a heavy takedown from Warren, Fernandes set up an armbar and straightened Warren’s arm out while facing the ground himself. Without the hold being on for less then five seconds, the referee stopped the contest. Sure the armbar was on tight, but Fernandes wasn’t in the best position to apply anymore leverage. If Warren isn’t in pain, then you have to let the fight go. I agree 100% with referee stoppages if the guy is stuck in there and his arm is continually being hyperextended but Warren wasn’t given the chance to defend it. The final was interesting in that Takaya was fighting where he wanted to fight, but Fernandes’ aggression and wild striking was scoring heavily while Takaya was unable to get anything off. With champions crowned in the four lower weight classes, it’ll be interesting to see if DREAM puts on a Grand Prix with one of the heavier weight divisions next year.

Also on the card, Sokoudjou and Minowaman both advanced to the final of the Super Hulk Tournament. Sokoudjou did as he pleased with Bob Sapp, destroying him once he got on top while Minowaman survived some scary moments in the opening frame to submit Hong Man Choi with a heel hook early in the 2nd round. The two will meet in the final which will probably be held at Dynamite. Kazushi Sakuraba and Tatsuya Kawajiri both scored dominating wins against overmatched opponents with Sakuraba submitting boxer Rubin Williams with a kimura and Kawajiri battering Melchor Manibusan to score a first round stoppage.