UFC 129 Predictions

I’ve had some computer issues hence the lack of posts in the last week but there’s no better card to come back to then this one. Without a doubt this is the most stacked card of the year so far with two title fights as well as two fights with a lot of divisional significance behind them and a fun undercard (except for Matyushenko-Brilz) and it’s being held in front of 55,000 Canadian fans. In the main event Georges St Pierre takes on EliteXC Welterweight champion and Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields for the UFC Welterweight championship. St Pierre makes his sixth defence of the title he took from Matt Serra and looks to break a drought of decision wins which has gone back to January 2009! Shields was on a tear in the smaller shows, defeating Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and then upsetting Dan Henderson before signing with the UFC. He edged Martin Kampmann out at UFC 121 in October to earn the shot but has also defeated the likes of Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami in what is now a 15 fight win streak.

Co featuring see’s the first UFC Featherweight championship fight with reigning champion Jose Aldo defending against Canadian Mark Hominick. Aldo was the reigning WEC champion, technically making his third defence of the title having previously defended against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. Hominick is a former UFC fighter, competing at lightweight where he went 2-0 (beating Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel) before dropping to featherweight and the WEC. Hominick is riding a five fight win streak that saw him somehow get a split decision over Leonard Garcia and knock out George Roop at UFC Fight for the Troops in January. Also on the card UFC hall of famer Randy Couture will fight former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson makes his UFC debut against up and comer Mark Bocek.

Georges St Pierre vs Jake Shields
(UFC Welterweight Championship)
Prediction- St Pierre by third round stoppage
I really don’t like Shields at welterweight. I think the weight cut hurts him too much and his cardio is shit at this weight. He looks so much better at 185 where he can grind on an opponent for five rounds like he did to Henderson and Miller. I thought Shields looked ordinary against Martin Kampmann (to the point where I scored the fight to Kampmann) and had the Dane fought a smarter fight (ie not trying to guillotine someone with those sort of grappling credentials every chance he had and giving up takedowns to do it instead of just sprawling and using his superior striking) he would have won easily. I don’t think Shields will get St Pierre down and if he does I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him there long enough to set up a submission. He’ll be forced to fight GSP in a stand-up battle and his stand-up quite frankly is poo and his chin is suspect. St Pierre will outwork him, Shields will gas and GSP will get his first stoppage win since BJ Penn.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
(UFC Featherweight Championship)
Prediction- Aldo on points
Hominick is one of the few guys who will offer Aldo a test on the feet. He’s a world class kickboxer and while his power isn’t overly devastating it’s solid and he’s technically sound. I just think that Aldo will be too quick and explosive. He’ll control the pace, keep the fight on the outside where he can land his jab and his leg kicks and I don’t see him leaving his comfort zone to try and take Hominick to the ground to get the finish. Hominick will last because he’s tough, and he might even make a round or two close but Aldo will be too quick, too confident and too good and will win by a wide margin.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Machida by second round knockout
(knockout of the night pick)
I’d be more confident in Couture if I’d seen him fight at a decent level in the last 12-18 months. He hasn’t had a proper test since Brandon Vera in November 2009 and he struggled in that fight with Vera’s takedown defence and muay thai skills. Machida’s movement and unorthodox striking I think will work well against Couture’s attempts to tie him up and his takedown defence is very strong. The thing that worries me for Randy is I think his resistance to punishment has dropped significantly. Coleman rocked him with a right hand briefly in their fight, Vera dropped him with a body kick and was hurting him with knees to the body and Nogueira dropped him twice and I don’t think any of those guys have the power that Machida does (even Nogueira who is 30-40lb heavier). Machida’s style works well against guys who can’t beat him standing. Couture might get him to the fence where he can use his inside game and punish Machida from the single collar tie with elbows and uppercuts, but I think he’ll take too much coming in and Machida will eventually knock him out.

Jason Brilz vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Prediction- Brilz on points
Why this fight is on the main card is beyond me. It’ll be a clinch fest with very little striking and I think Brilz has the more well rounded game and will win a snoozer.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
(fight of the night pick)
Henderson’s wrestling and striking will get him the decision but I see him having to get out of multiple submission attempts from Bocek who has one of the nastiest submission games at 155lbs. This fight should be high tempo with good scrambles on the ground and while they probably won’t be the most technical punch exchanges on the feet, they should be fun. I think Henderson’s hips and ability to stay on top will get him the edge in most rounds. It should be close and it should be very entertaining.

Preliminaries
Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald
Prediction- Diaz by third round submission
(submission of the night pick)
I won’t rule MacDonald out completely in this fight but I don’t think he has the strength to dominate Diaz on the floor or the experience to get out of submissions. He’ll do well early but Diaz’s technical advantages will take over and he’ll pick MacDonald apart on the feet and punish him there before catching him in something late.

Jake Ellenberger vs Sean Pierson
Prediction- Ellenberger on points
I admittedly have only seen Pierson once, but Ellenberger seems to have the advantage here being the better credentialled wrestler. Plus I feel he’ll have something to prove after an average showing against Rocha in his last fight.

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts
Prediction- Patrick by first round submission
Another fight I’m very much looking forward to. Both guys have sneaky submission games and a good deal of smaller show experience behind them. I like Patrick and have been a fan for a while and I think he’ll deliver in front of his hometown fans and he’ll catch Roberts early with a submission. The longer the fight goes the better Roberts will do but I think he gets caught dry by the more experienced fighter.

Ivan Menjivar vs Charles Valencia
Prediction- Valencia on points
Menjivar’s game is a little out of date in my opinion. He’s a tough guy and he’s given some good fighters hard fights over the years but Valencia has been more consistent lately, even if his game isn’t top shelf. Loser goes home I think, and the winner gets fed to an up and comer.

Ryan Jensen vs Jason MacDonald
Prediction- MacDonald by second round submission
Jensen is always entertaining. His fights never go the distance and I don’t think this one will either. MacDonald gets another crack at keeping his UFC career alive and I think he drew a good matchup. Jensen has a habbit of getting himself caught in armbars and chokes in fights his winning and I think this one goes the same way.

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson
Prediction- Watson by first round submission
Makdessi is an interesting prospect ith a background in taekwondo and karate. He’s gone 8-0 and while I’ve only seen his last fight, I think Kyle Watson is a step up for him. Watson has good takedowns and solid top control and submissions. He’s patient and makes few mistakes and I think he’ll get Makdessi down and show up the Canadian as having a lack of ground game. It’s a good test for a striking prospect, but it’ll have to be put don to a learning curve I think.

Pablo Garza vs Yves Jabouin
Prediction- Garza by first round submission
For those of you who don’t know Garza, he was one of the better guys on the TUF GSP vs Koscheck show. The trouble was he drew eventual runner-up Michael Johnson in the first round of fights by hard fought decision and didn’t end up on the show. He won by brutal knockout on the finale and Jabouin won’t be able to handle him. His submissions are nasty and his stand-up is explosive. He’ll struggle with the wrestlers but a fight like this is made for him.

Sanchez edges Guida in war at TUF9 Finale

In what has to be the fight of the year in MMA so far for 2009, TUF1 Middleweight champion Diego ‘Nightmare’ Sanchez scored a split decision over Clay Guida in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale. Both guys seemed eager to start the fight, with Sanchez staring Guida down during his walk to the Octagon and the fighters engaging in one of the most intense staredowns during the referee’s final instructions. That eagerness boilt over as both men opened with a huge flurry that lasted a good 20 seconds with Sanchez rocking Guida against the cage. The two traded heavy strikes for the opening minute of the first round with Sanchez’s ever improving stand-up skills allowing him to tattoo Guida with a variety of clean shots, one of which knocked Guida’s mouthpiece out. Guida then scored a takedown and began working his top game that has earnt him victories over Mac Danzig and Nate Diaz in his recent outings. Sanchez worked his way back to his feet and after a brief respite to replace Guida’s mouthguard, Sanchez again took the upper hand dropping Guida heavily with a head kick. Somehow Guida wasn’t unconscious when he hit the ground, and he rises before Sanchez can finish him. Sanchez went to work with his hands landing more hard shots that appeared to have broken Guida’s nose before getting a takedown of his own and landing several shots from on top before the buzzer sounded.

And that was just the first round…..

Guida came out for the 2nd round like nothing had happened and put Sanchez on his back early and began to control him from on top. Sanchez was just as aggressive from his back, throwing hard elbows that landed frequently as Guida appeared more interested in controlling Diego then doing damage. Sanchez was also busy with submission attempts, looking for the kimura on more then one occasion although Guida’s defence was tight. The fighters exchange strikes on the ground at the end of the round with Sanchez landing a series of elbows that cut Guida’s forehead open before the buzzer. Sanchez scored early in the third with strikes as Guida attempted to land punches to set up a takedown. Midway through the round Guida shoots in for a takedown which fails an Sanchez tries to capitilise by taking his back. Guida defends and Sanchez ends up on bottom but with a rear (?) naked choke locked in as he is still half around Guida’s back. Guida escapes again and looks to capitilise but Sanchez keeps him busy defending submission attempts as the fight ends and the debate about who won begins.

While Sanchez did the most damage by far, Guida was successful in controlling where the fight went for most of it. I scored a 10-8 round for Sanchez in the first and thought the 2nd and 3rd could go either way (I wouldn’t argue with a 10-9 in the first either) giving Guida the 2nd and Sanchez the 3rd. The judges were split with 29-28 Guida and 29-28/29-27 for Sanchez giving him the split decision and likely a shot at the winner of Florian-Penn at UFC 101. It truly was one of the best fights I’ve seen in MMA and both fighters stock rose significantly from the fight.

In the Ultimate Fighter Finals it was a UK clean sweep with Ross Pearson edging Andre Winner in the Lightweight Final and James Wilks choking out DeMarques Johnson in the opening round of the Welterweight final. Also on the card, Chris Lytle survived a scary first round in which he was dropped to score a unanimous decision over Kevin Burns and TUF2 Welterweight Joe Stevenson showed an improved overall game decisioning TUF5 Lightweight champion Nate Diaz.

TUF9 Finale

The Ultimate Fighter 9 “US vs UK” concludes tomorrow with the usual final card featuring the final bouts as part of the main card. There was a lot of hype around this season being the best yet, I don’t quite agree with it to be honest. While some of the tension between the two teams was good, the rivalry with the coaches wasn’t up there with some of the other seasons and the antics in the house were pretty tame I thought. I was sort of waiting for someone big to happen in the house for the entire show and nothing happened.

The finals pit DeMarques Johnson (US) against James Wilkes (UK) in the Welterweight division and in the Lightweight division Andre Winner and Ross Pearson of team UK do battle. I think Johnson will have too much experience for Wilks, who seems a little green at this stage. As much as I didn’t like Johnson (or anyone from team US), he probably had the most well rounded game in the house and Wilks showed some weaknesses in his game in his two fights against Lester. The all UK Lightweight final should be a cracker and I’m really not sure who to pick. I’m going with Winner to win on points in what could be fight of the night (if the main event doesn’t live up to expectations).

The main card has some interesting non-TUF fights with a pivotal battle in the lightweight division between Diego Sanchez and Clay Guida headlining the card. This fight provides us with the clear next contender behind Florian and Penn in my opinion. Maybe Gray Maynard is up there, but I think with Sanchez’s success at welterweight and Guida’s resume as well as the performance he showed in losing to Huerta that the winner of this fight should get the next crack. I think Sanchez has the better finishing skills out of the two, but Guida’s wrestling, pace and cardio could make the fight very interesting. Sanchez has dealt with fighters like Guida before and seeing how he doesn’t have to deal with the strength of a 170lber in this fight, I think he won’t be as troubled by the wrestling skills of Guida. Plus Sanchez is known to set a pretty high pace himself and also has great cardio. The x-factor here is the weight cut for Sanchez, if it effects him Guida will just outwork him. I think it won’t, especially since this is the second time he’s cut this far now and I think Sanchez will prevail by unanimous decision or late stoppage.

The other interesting fight on the card sees the two men who most recently lost to Guida and Sanchez doing battle. Nate Diaz fights Joe Stevenson in a battle of former TUF champions and one both men can’t really afford to lose. Diaz had a strong run of victories post TUF but stumbled in his chance to join the elite against Clay Guida at UFC 94. Stevenson struggled a bit post TUF before winning enough straight fights to earn himself a shot at BJ Penn’s title. Penn made light work of Stevenson which has started a run of bad results for ‘Daddy’ as he is going into this fight with back to back losses against Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Both guys have great grappling skills, but Diaz’s stand-up is much crisper and provided Stevenson can’t take him down at will I think Diaz will batter him on their feet and maybe even score a stoppage late in the fight.

UFC Updates: Evans vs Machida (not Rampage)

Just thought I’d post something different seeing how there’s limited action over the coming weeks until the K-1 event at the end of March. A few big fights have been announced over the last few weeks. I’ve beek keeping a MMA schedule on the main page (when I get around to updating it anyway) so if you want to see who’s on what card that’s coming up this might be a good place to check out.

Evans to fight Machida, not Rampage
That’s right, like I said Rampage fighting three times in a little over five months was too much especially considering one of those was a hard fought fight with Keith Jardine who is a strong, powerful bastard. Machida will instead get his shot in probably the least exciting fight for a UFC title since the Pat Miletich reign at Welterweight. This fight could be very boring, but then again I’ve been wanting to see what it takes to beat one of these guys for a while so at least that’ll satisfy that bit of curiosity for me, that and the fact that Rampage will likely tear apart whoever wins this fight.

TUF 9 Finale features Sanchez-Guida and Diaz-Stevenson
The two main fights apart from the Finals for TUF 9 will feature another round robin of lightweight clashes. After Nate Diaz and Clay Guida beat Josh Neer and Mac Danzig respectively, Diaz fought Guida and Danzig took on in bouts following. The same has happened again with Guida and Diaz, who will meet Sanchez and Stevenson in respective bouts. The Guida-Sanchez fight has serious implications with the winner probably next in line to battle BJ Penn (or Kenny Florian) as both guys have been in good form and are on winning streaks. Diaz and Stevenson should be another good test for Diaz and one that I think he’ll pass. The big thing will be whether or not he can finish ‘Daddy’ because he’ll deserve serious props if he does.

Coleman to face Bonnar at UFC 100
UFC 100 features a hall of fame member in what will be a sad showing as he’ll likely lose to one of the UFC’s average Light Heavyweights. Former UFC and PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman will take on TUF1 Runner-up Stephan Bonnar at UFC 100. Bonnar should win this fight on conditioning alone as Coleman struggles to fight for more then two minutes without being short of breath.

St Pierre batters Penn at UFC 94

Georges St Pierre defended his UFC Welterweight Championship on Sunday with a 4th round TKO win over BJ Penn after Penn didn’t answer the bell for the 5th and final round. The win was the second successful defence of th title for St Pierre, who took it from Matt Serra at UFC 83 last year with a 2nd round TKO win. The win sets up a fight between St Pierre and number one contender Thiago Alves who is coming off victories over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last two outings. The loss also likely sets up a fight between BJ Penn, who holds the UFC Lightweight title, and number one Lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

The fighters clinched up quickly after the opening round began and St Pierre tried for the entire round to take Penn down but with no success. The fighters seperated a few times with Penn landing a hard right hand on one occassion and St Pierre landing a solid right of his own on another. The round proved to be the tactical battle many anticipated and St Pierre probably won due to his aggression. Round two was a completely different story though. St Pierre again shot in for a single leg takedown and this time managed to get Penn on his back. Working from inside Penn’s rubber guard and butterfly guard, St Pierre worked Penn over with elbows and punches while looking to pass guard. The times he managed to get to side control, Penn used freakish escapes to get back to guard but that was all he was able to do as St Pierre won the second round big.

Penn looked like the minutes rest between the second and third round did him not good as he appeared sluggish at the start of the third round. St Pierre landed solid jabs and a devastating leg kick with little attempt at defence from the former Welterweight Champion before St Pierre again took Penn to the ground. Despite being able to pass Penn’s guard more in this round, St Pierre’s offence wasn’t as dominating as in the previous round. Still, the round ended with St Pierre on top working Penn over with strikes. Penn looked even more tired at the start of the 4th and after eating several punches and leg kicks, he found himself in the familiar position of being on his back. St Pierre’s confidence was growing as he often attempted to mount Penn with little regard for the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champions guard. Midway through the round St Pierre landed his most damaging strikes of the round and after referee Herb Dean asked for Penn to fight back, ‘GSP’ turned it up. St Pierre proceeded to punish Penn with devastating punches from on top and was probably only a few seconds away from stopping Penn when the round ended.

A frustrated looking St Pierre walked back to his corner and a physically beaten Penn staggered back to his. In the corner the doctor and referee both examined Penn before JD Penn, BJ’s brother and manager told the doctor he wanted to stop the fight and awarded St Pierre with the TKO victory. The win brings St Pierre’s record to 18-2 with only five fights going the distance. Penn’s record drops to 13-5 and likely puts an end to Penn’s aspirations of winning titles in every weight division. With Thiago Alves likely next on the French-Canadian’s plate, a possible mega fight with Anderson Silva will have to wait. That fight would pit, in my opinion anyway, the two top pound for pound fighters in MMA against each other.

On the undercard, Lyoto Machida finally scored a knockout win in the UFC, knocking Thiago Silva out at the bell to end the first round. After clowning Silva in his usual way, Machida twice dropped the undefeated Brazilian and used clever inside trips on other occassions to put Silva on his back. One of these trips ended with Silva in guard and Machida delivered two bombs from a standing position that left Silva unconscious as the buzzer went to end the first round. Referee Yves Lavigne took a few seconds before calling the fight with Silva out on the mat. The win, according to Dana White, will earn Machida a shot at the title should Keith Jardine defeat Rampage Jackson at UFC 96. If Jardine is victorious, Machida will fight Evans for the belt instead.

Young star Jon Jones spoiled Stephan Bonnar’s return to the Octagon with a variety of spinning back kicks, highlight reel takedowns and a spinning elbow which nearly knocked Bonnar out in the 2nd round. Despite a late rally from the TUF1 runner-up, Jones held on for a unanimous decision victory. Karo Parisyan won in his comeback via split decision in an uneventful fight with fellow Judoka Dong Hyun Kim. Clay Guida took out another TUF winner, scoring a split decision over Nate Diaz in a fight that resembled a wrestling match. The times Diaz broke free and used his hands he looked a completely different fighter, even hurting Guida in the third round, but he spent too much time being outwrestled by Guida and was on the wrong end of a close decision.

Full Results
Georges St Pierre TKO4 (corner stoppage) BJ Penn
Lyoto Machida KO1 (punch) Thiago Silva
Jon Jones UD Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan SD Dong Hyun Kim
Clay Guida SD Nate Diaz
Jon Fitch UD Akihiro Gono
Thiago Tavares UD Manny Gamburyan
John Howard SD Chris Wilson
Jake O’Brien SD Cristian Wellisch
Dan Cramer SD Matt Arroyo

UFC 94 Undercard Picks

This event, like UFC 91, is really like a boxing card. Sure there’s some fucking good scraps on the undercard, but this card is all about the main event. That’s why I’m going to give a seperate post breaking down the main event. Still, the undercard is bloody good and puts most cards to shame. Even though I think the co-feature will go in typical Machida fashion, the other fights on the card are very interesting. I could very well go 0/10 on this card, thats how well the matchups have been made.

Televised Card
Lyoto Machida vs Thiago Silva
Prediction- Machida by Decision
I think Silva is way too wild to deal with Machida’s smooth counter attacking style. Machida will frustrate him as he does by moving away a lot and hitting Silva when Silva thinks he’s out of range and eventually wear him out en route to taking a shutout unanimous decision. Silva has some serious power though and even though his stand-up is very ordinary, his punching power from on top is up there with the very best in MMA. If he can get Machida on his back I think he stands a good chance in this fight but I think Machida will control the striking and dictate the pace and win another Machida-esque decision.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Karo Parisyan
Prediction- Parisyan by Decision
A battle between two Judokas. Parisyan I feel has the edge standing up between the two fighters and I think that’s where the fight will be decided. Still, with Parisyan’s recent mental problems (okay that sounds a lot worse then it is but it’s the right description) it’s hard to know where he’ll be at for this fight. Hopefully he doesn’t pull out just before the fight again with anxiety, but then again if he does we’ll get to see Fitch-Gono which should be on the main card as it’s better then two of the other fights (this one and the Bonnar fight), but more on that later.

Nate Diaz vs Clay Guida
Prediction- Guida by Decision
Basically in this fight you have an extremely dangerous fighter with average wrestling in Diaz and an extremely good wrestler with average skills in Guida. In fights like these it’s always a case of the extremely dangerous fighter being controlled but having the game where he can end the fight at any point and them needing to finish the fight if they want to win as they’ll likely lose on the cards due to being on their back too much. Well if you put it like that it doesn’t sound like your average cliche’ but thats how it is in this fight. Guida will get numerous takedowns and if he can finish the fight he will win on points because of this. Diaz needs to work big strikes on the feet and go for submissions when he’s on the mat. This is a 50-50 fight but I’m giving Guida the edge because of his experience.

Stephan Bonnar vs Jon Jones
Prediction- Bonnar by 2nd round submission
Why why why why why is this fight on the main card instead of Fitch vs Gono? As much as I like Bonnar, the Fitch fight deserves to be on the card so much more. This fight would likely end in style as well and could be shown on the card as well as Fitch-Gono whereas Fitch-Gono has the potential to be longer and not as dramatic. Bonnar should win this fight though as long as his layoff doesn’t affect him too much. He’ll get Jones on his back and work his dangerous top game and finish the fight with probably an arm lock (I’ll take a stab at the Kimura).

Preliminaries
Jon Fitch vs Akihiro Gono
Prediction- Fitch by Decision
Fitch should win due to this physical strength. Gono has fought at the higher weight division, but Fitch is a strong guy who’ll get Gono on his back and pound away to a decision win. Gono will be dangerous with his strikes and his submissions but not enough to threaten the extremely durable Fitch. This should be an interesting fight and if you haven’t got my point from the other two fights I bitched about this in, I think this fight deserves a place on the main card.

Manny Gamburyan vs Thiago Tavares
Prediction- Gamburyan by Decision
Like Fitch and Guida, I like Gamburyan in this fight for his physical strength. Even though he’s a midget and probably could drop a weight class, he has freakish strength and as long as he doesn’t get chinned like he did against Emerson (and there’s a good chance it’ll happen with Manny’s technically retarded striking game even though Tavares isn’t a known banger, fighting anyone with your chin higher then your forehead is dangerous) I think he’ll ragdoll Tavares and win a shutout unanimous decision win.

John Howard vs Chris Wilson
Prediction- Wilson by Decision
Howard is someone I’m not very familiar with. I’ve never seen him fight and apart from the glance I took at his record before, I’ve really got nothing else to go by in this fight. Wilson is a decent fighter and I always pick the guy I know in a fight like this where one guy is unknown and doesn’t appear to have a whole heap going for him. Wilson on points.

Jake O’Brien vs Christian Wellisch
Prediction- O’Brien by Decision
Yawn. It’s strange that when Machida fights on a card he’s not the most boring fighter on it. O’Brien makes me sick (except when he’s fighting Cain Velasquez, they could match those two up every UFC card and I’d still be happy) and this fight is horrible as both guys have nothing but wrestling. O’Brien’s wrestling should prove to be better and he’ll lay and prey his way to another decision win.

Matt Arroyo vs Dan Kramer
Prediction- Arroyo by 1st round submission
Either the UFC will learn that if they want to market Kramer he should be fighting guys with no ground game, or they’ll learn that Kramer doesn’t belong in the UFC with a ground game as bad as his from this fight. Kramer will come out throwing hard punches, but will be brought to the ground and submitted even if Arroyo pulls Kramer onto his back.

UFC 90 Results

We saw a mixed bag during the UFC today. While the main event ended unsatisfactorily (although no one is to blame as it was a freak accident), four of the other five fights we saw today were either great battles or had great finishes. The other fight was a good tactical fight but one that left the Illinois crowd and the referee who repeatedly asked both fighters to work. I won’t write the Illinois crowd off as idiots yet because it seems to happen the first time a big MMA show hits a new US state, they’re so pumped up that they boo everything that isn’t Griffin-Bonnar like. One thing that does piss me off though is idiot referees who don’t let the fighters fight. I’m not sure why stand-ups are even in the UFC anymore. They originally came in for two reasons. First reason was Dan Severn who is the Godfather of Lay and Pray, and the second reason is because back in the day when fighters were one dimensional, probably 80% of fighters couldn’t get back to their feet when they got taken down. Then add to that the fact that probably 70% of fighters couldn’t do much on top unless they were fighting a BJJ newbie, it led to some really boring fights. In this day and age, if you’re in the UFC and you can’t get back to your feet you don’t belong there. I still think stand-ups should happen in smaller shows because at lower level MMA you get the same situation that used to happen in the UFC, but in the big show with the best fighters in the World let the fighters fight!

Anderson Silva TKO (injury) 3rd round Patrick Cote
Strange fight. I’m not trying to take anything away from Cote here, but I really think Silva wanted some cage time. If he threw more then 30 strikes a round I’d be surprised. He looked nothing like he did when he took Rich Franklin apart in those two fights and Franklin is a much better fighter then Cote. To Cote’s credit, when Silva did land he took it well. He took a few head kicks and knees that would have floored lesser men. The ending was a little disappointing as Cote blew his knee out in the 3rd round and couldn’t continue. Full credit to him for repeatedly trying to get to his feet and continue, and Anderson Silva is a very classy guy for not jumping on him when he injured himself. The only fight for Silva at 185lbs is Yushin Okami. Okami is clearly the number one contender with wins over Jason McDonald and Evan Tanner as well as the close loss to Rich Franklin. Throw in the fact that Okami is the last man to defeat Silva (even if it was by disqualification in a fight that Silva should have won; I don’t care what the rules say, if you can knock someone out while on your back you deserve the win) and this is a fight that can be marketed. What I’d really like to see happen is for Silva to go up to 205lbs and rule there. Does anyone really think Rashad Evans or Forrest Griffin could hang with The Spider?

Thiago Alves UD Josh Koscheck
Great fight. Alves beat Koscheck up in the first and third rounds but Koscheck made a fight of it. Koscheck is a tough son of a bitch and even though I don’t like him, he deserves props for having a sturdy chin and heart to match it. Alves went to work with his leg kicks and high kicks and stuffed every one of Koschecks takedown attempts. He dropped Koscheck in the first round and had him in a lot of trouble in the third as well. Alves is the logical choice for the next shot at the Welterweight title whether that be against BJ Penn or Georges St Pierre. Whowver wins that super fight on Super Bowl weekend has their hands full with the Pitbull.

Gray Maynard UD3 Rich Clementi
Maynard outwrestled him, it was that simple. Maynard is one of the top lightweights in the UFC and while I think he’ll struggle against some of the better fighters, I think he matches up very evenly with the others based entirely on his wrestling ability. I’d like to see Maynard take on Emerson again if he doesn’t land a big fight, but with BJ Penn possibly staying at 170lbs, a four man tournament over two events would be an exciting way to sort out who the new champion is and I think with his last two wins (over Clementi and Frankie Edgar) he deserves a spot among those four. Throw in Sherk, Nate Diaz and the Florian-Stevenson winner and thats a good four fighters to have compete for the crown if Penn stays at 170lbs.

Junior dos Santos KO 1st round Fabricio Werdum
Wow! Santos shocked the hell out of everyone with that win. Props to anyone who called that and I know there were a few of them but I really didn’t think that Werdum would have much trouble in that fight. Santos is right in the mix now with that victory as Werdum was definately a top contender with his recent form. There’s plenty of good fights for Santos with the likes of Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Heath Herring or Cheick Kongo all matching up well with Santos.

Sean Sherk UD3 Tyson Griffin
I never thought I’d say this about a Sean Sherk fight, but that was fight of the night out of the ones I’ve seen. Sherk took Griffin down a lot easier then I thought he would early on and even took his back twice (although as always, Griffin escaped in the most exciting way possible). In the second and third rounds as I predicted both guys duked it out with Griffin dominating the first part of the round and Sherk outworking him in the last 2-3 minutes and probably pinching the fight there. Griffin’s cardio is good, but Sherk’s is on a whole other level and that was the difference in this fight. Sherk needs to remember that he’s a wrestler more and go for more takedowns because if Griffins cardio was better today he could have been in trouble standing with him when he was taking him down as easily as he was early in the fight.

Thales Leites Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 1st round Drew McFedries
Leites likely earns another submission of the night award with this performance. He used his right leg like a third arm once he took McFedries back (after he passed his guard like he was a white belt) and left McFedries defending with one arm. Then after sliding his free arm under McFedries’ throat, he quickly locked it up and forced the tap. Good to see Leites get his TV spot at the end of the show as well after his original opponent Goran Reljic was injured forcing him off the main card.

Other Results
Pete Sell UD3 Josh Burkman
Hermes Franca UD3 Marcus Aurelio
Spencer Fisher Submission (Triangle Choke) 3rd Round Shannon Gugerty
Dan Miller UD3 Matt Horwich

UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer Predictions

I haven’t got time to do a big breakdown of all of these fights, basically I think Diaz’s ground game will be too much for Neer to handle, Alexander will get tapped out as soon as the fight hits the ground, Guida will be too well-rounded for Danzig and is too much for him at this stage and Lauzon will tear Bradley a new one.

Main Card
Nate Diaz vs Josh Neer
Prediction- Diaz submission 2nd round

Houston Alexander vs Eric Schafer
Prediction- Schafer submission 1st round

Mac Danzig vs Clay Guida
Prediction- Guida on points

Kyle Bradley vs Joe Lauzon
Prediction- Lauzon knockout 2nd round

Alan Belcher vs Ed Herman
Prediction- Belcher on points

Wilson Gouveia vs Ryan Jensen
Prediction- Gouveia submission 2nd round

Preliminary Card
Mike Massenzio vs Drew McFedries
Prediction- McFedries knockout 1st round

Alessio Sakara vs Joe Vedepo
Prediction- Sakara knockout 1st round

Rob Kimmons vs Dan Miller
Prediction- Miller on points

Jason Britz vs Brad Morris
Prediction- Britz on points