Boxing Breakdown: Lopez vs Luevano/Gamboa vs Mtagwa

Two very exciting fights make up the first decent TV show of the new decade. Steve Luevano puts his WBO Featherweight belt on the line against former WBO Junior Featherweight champ Juan Manuel Lopez, who moves up in weight for the first time. Also on the card (I’m actually not sure which one is the main event) WBA Featherweight champion (well one of the two Featherweight titlists the WBA has) Yuri Gamboa puts his title on the line in his toughest test today against iron willed Roger Mtagwa. Both fights have the potential to be wars and we should get an early fight of the year candidate out of the card.

Lopez vs Luevano pits boxer against puncher in the classic style matchup. I don’t think Luevano is going to have the skills or power to keep Lopez at bay for long and I think Juanma is going to get into him early and batter him. Luevano will do well to last the distance as Lopez is just too powerful and will likely end this fight inside of 10 rounds. Gamboa-Mtagwa is one of those fights that has the potential to be something special or could just end up a one sided blowout. Gamboa has serious speed and power and if he boxes smart he’ll have an easy night of it but the trouble is that he never boxes smart. He likes to throw lots of hard punches and opens himself up in doing that. Mtagwa has an iron jaw, but I don’t think he’s fought anyone with Gamboa’s power. Yuri to make a statement tonight with a crushing knockout inside of six rounds.

UFC 101 Predictions/Site Update

Apologies for the lack of, well, anything this month so far. I’ve been extremely busy and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I’ll still be covering the big events as much as possible and I’ll do a recap of anything recent in those.

Now, Fedor…. I think it could have been a lot worse (Fedor signed with Strikeforce, not the UFC) but I’d definately have preferred him in the UFC. Overeem has the potential to be a challenge although I think he gets submitted once it goes to the ground. Rogers probably has the best chance but I think he’ll also be taken out once it hits the ground and Werdum will probably go the distance while in survival mode with Fedor not risking going to the ground with him. Some Indian fighter won the K-1 qualifier and will be making up the numbers at the Final 16. Manhoef and Lazceno will take part in this weekends qualifier. That’s about it off the top of my head.

UFC 101 now and it’s a ripper of a card with two quality lead fights and three good fights supporting it. I think Florian has a real chance in this fight. His thai boxing skills are something Penn hasn’t come across and his BJJ is also good although I think Florian will want to avoid fighting from his back. If this fight goes past the 2nd round I think Florian can pull it out, but I think Penn will win the fight mainly through heavy right hands on the feet and ground and pound once he gets on top. Florian will be game but I think Penn stops him in the 2nd or 3rd from either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.

Silva-Griffin is also an interesting fight. Griffin is a big guy with an excellent workrate and heavy kicks. His boxing sucks as he arm punches and slaps a lot and doesn’t do much damage and contrary to popular belief his chin isn’t good although he’s extremely durable to constant punishment as long as the guy isn’t a world class striker. Silva unfortunately is and he’s also extremely fast. I think this will be a blowout with Silva doing a number on Griffin in the first two minutes. It’ll be really interesting if the fight goes past the first round how Silva handles someone like Griffin pushing the pace on him.

Full picks: Penn by 3rd round sub
Silva by 1st round KO
Grove on points
Sadollah by 2nd round KO
Pellegrino on points
Leites by 1st round sub
Riley on points
McCrory on points
Sotiropolous by 2nd round sub
Riddle on points
Lennox by 1st round KO

TUF9 Finale

The Ultimate Fighter 9 “US vs UK” concludes tomorrow with the usual final card featuring the final bouts as part of the main card. There was a lot of hype around this season being the best yet, I don’t quite agree with it to be honest. While some of the tension between the two teams was good, the rivalry with the coaches wasn’t up there with some of the other seasons and the antics in the house were pretty tame I thought. I was sort of waiting for someone big to happen in the house for the entire show and nothing happened.

The finals pit DeMarques Johnson (US) against James Wilkes (UK) in the Welterweight division and in the Lightweight division Andre Winner and Ross Pearson of team UK do battle. I think Johnson will have too much experience for Wilks, who seems a little green at this stage. As much as I didn’t like Johnson (or anyone from team US), he probably had the most well rounded game in the house and Wilks showed some weaknesses in his game in his two fights against Lester. The all UK Lightweight final should be a cracker and I’m really not sure who to pick. I’m going with Winner to win on points in what could be fight of the night (if the main event doesn’t live up to expectations).

The main card has some interesting non-TUF fights with a pivotal battle in the lightweight division between Diego Sanchez and Clay Guida headlining the card. This fight provides us with the clear next contender behind Florian and Penn in my opinion. Maybe Gray Maynard is up there, but I think with Sanchez’s success at welterweight and Guida’s resume as well as the performance he showed in losing to Huerta that the winner of this fight should get the next crack. I think Sanchez has the better finishing skills out of the two, but Guida’s wrestling, pace and cardio could make the fight very interesting. Sanchez has dealt with fighters like Guida before and seeing how he doesn’t have to deal with the strength of a 170lber in this fight, I think he won’t be as troubled by the wrestling skills of Guida. Plus Sanchez is known to set a pretty high pace himself and also has great cardio. The x-factor here is the weight cut for Sanchez, if it effects him Guida will just outwork him. I think it won’t, especially since this is the second time he’s cut this far now and I think Sanchez will prevail by unanimous decision or late stoppage.

The other interesting fight on the card sees the two men who most recently lost to Guida and Sanchez doing battle. Nate Diaz fights Joe Stevenson in a battle of former TUF champions and one both men can’t really afford to lose. Diaz had a strong run of victories post TUF but stumbled in his chance to join the elite against Clay Guida at UFC 94. Stevenson struggled a bit post TUF before winning enough straight fights to earn himself a shot at BJ Penn’s title. Penn made light work of Stevenson which has started a run of bad results for ‘Daddy’ as he is going into this fight with back to back losses against Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Both guys have great grappling skills, but Diaz’s stand-up is much crisper and provided Stevenson can’t take him down at will I think Diaz will batter him on their feet and maybe even score a stoppage late in the fight.

Boxing Breakdown: Miguel Cotto vs Joshua Clottey

This is a fight between WBO titlist Cotto, who won the vacant title after Williams moved up and now former IBF titlist Clottey, who won the title that the IBF took off Margarito for fighting Cotto and now they are taking the title off Clottey for the same thing because apparently whoever bought their #1 ranking recently makes a better fight then fight Miguel Cotto. Just thought I’d get that out of the way before I got onto the actual fight.

Miguel Cotto defends the WBO Welterweight title that he won in February against the IBF titlist Joshua Clottey tomorrow in what should be a very interesting fight. It marks Cotto’s first real test since since the stoppage loss to Margarito and his 2nd outing this year. Clottey hasn’t fought since his technical decision win over Zab Judah last August after a fight with Kermit Cintron fell apart at the start of the year.

I’m intruiged by this fight. Clottey is one of the tougher guys out there with only Margarito having a better ability to take a punch. He also has a high workrate and above average power which are two things needed to deal with Cotto. Clottey only has two losses on his record, one being a decision loss to Margarito in 2006, a fight which Clottey fought admirably but lost fairly. His other loss is nearly ten years ago to former Welterweight Champion Carlos Baldomir where Clottey was DQ’d in the 11th round while ahead on the scorecards. It was his loss to Margarito and then his domination over former Lightweight Champion Diego Corrales that put Clottey on the map in terms of being a top contender and he’s had trouble getting marquee names into the ring since then.

Cotto has never been one to turn down a hard fight. This guy has been fighting guys who could test him since about his 10th pro fight and has been dominating most of them with his only loss coming to Margarito last year in what was Ring Magazines fight of the year. He fought and beat Mosley when Mosley was struggling to get quality opponents to face him. He fought Margarito when no one would touch him with a 10 foot pole. He’s fought Paulie Malignaggi, Miguel Torres, Carlos Quintana, Lovemore N’Dou, Zab Judah and DeMarcus Corley. Sure those guys aren’t Mayweather or Pacquiao, but at the time of each fight they were dangerous opponents for Cotto and he stopped all but two of them.

I think the big key in this fight will be speed. Cotto has plenty of it, especially in his feet, while Clottey relies more on his ruggedness. Judah gave Clottey problems in their fight with his speed early before Clottey started to break him down. Cotto has shown, especially early in a bout, that his foot speed is among the best in the business. I think Cotto will dart in and out of range and use Clottey as target practice for the first half of this fight before Clottey will finish strong which could make for an interesting back end to the fight. I think Cotto will have this fight won by the 8-9 round mark and survive a shaky moment or two in the championship rounds to win this one on points. Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision.

UFC 99 Predictions

While this card lacks the huge main event of some of the more recent cards or the ones in the coming months, UFC 99 looks to be one of the more explosive cards in recent memory. The main event itself is a fight that should promise fireworks as both guys like to stand up and go for the knockout and should they hit the ground neither man is the type to gain a dominant position and hold it for a decision win. Former PRIDE 205lb champion Wanderlei Silva headlines his first UFC card since his return to the Octagon (Silva has previously headlined the UFC 25 card when he fought and lost to Tito Ortiz for the championship nine years ago) and he takes on former UFC 185lb champion Rich Franklin at a catchweight of 195lb. In addition to that fight, there is five others instead of the usual four and all five have the potential for fireworks. Cain Velasquez has his first true test as he takes on dangerous stand-up fighter Cheick Kongo. Mirko Cro Cop and Caol Uno make their returns to the UFC taking on Mustapha Al-Turk and Spencer Fisher respectively. An interesting welterweight fight between in form fighters Mike Swick and Ben Saunders could give us the next top contender at 170lbs and a grudge fight between veteran Marcus Davis and hot prospect Dan Hardy. If there’s a fight on this main card that you’re not interested in then there’s something wrong with you in my honest opinion. Sunday is one of those rare days that has an exciting UFC card on in the morning (by morning I mean 5am) and then a quality boxing match on at lunch time. I’m drooling at the thought of it……

Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
Prediction- Franklin on points
I’m barracking for Silva as he is one of my favourite all-time fighters to watch but taking that out of the equation, I think Franklin has the edge in this fight. While Silva is the one dropping down to the weight, I feel Franklin will be the bigger man in this fight as well as the more experienced at the weight which is a strange combination. Silva has never had to make a weight below 205 and you don’t know how much that is going to hurt him. Combine that with the brutal knockout loss Silva suffered in his last fight and you don’t know how much he has left. Franklin doesn’t have the punching power of the guys who have knocked him out like Rampage, Cro Cop or in my opinion even Henderson but the effects of being knocked out in the fashion Silva has been KO’d it may have softened his jaw up. I fully expect this to be a war and you definately can’t count out Silva especially with his effectiveness from the clinch which is the way Anderson Silva knocked Franklin out twice for the Middleweight title, but I feel Wanderlei has seen better days and I think Franklin will get the better of the three round battle but it won’t be all one way traffic.

Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
Prediction- Velasquez by 2nd round TKO
Kongo has the obvious advantage on the feet, but I don’t think his improved wrestling ability will help him in this fight and I think he’ll be fighting off his back for 80-90% of the fight. Velasquez’s wrestling is too strong for Kongo and I don’t think he’ll have much trouble getting the takedown and then doing damage from on top. Velasquez has awesome punching power from on top and even though Kongo has a solid chin, I think the constant punishment will take it’s toll and the referee will save Kongo in the 2nd round.

Ben Saunders vs Mike Swick
Prediction- Swick by 1st round KO
A bit of a bold prediction here, but I don’t think Saunders will handle the type of fight Swick brings early on. Swick is too explosive for a guy like Saunders who is wide open at times and easy to hit. I think the longer this fight goes, the more chance Saunders has but I think Swick will blitz him. His hand speed is incredible and takes many guys by surprise and I expect Saunders will go in the fashion we got used to seeing Swick destroy people. Too much too soon for Saunders, I don’t think this fight will last two minutes.

Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
Prediction- Davis by 2nd round submission
There’s a bit of hatred between the two in this fight and I think it’s going to work against Hardy in this fight. Davis’ ground game is really solid now where it used to be his achilles heel where Hardy’s ground game still has a question mark over it as he’s been submitted a few times in the past. Hardy’s strength is his boxing, which is also Davis’ strength. Davis has never been knocked out from standing up and he’s faced stronger boxers then Hardy before. I think this fight has the potential to be as one sided as Davis vs Kelly back in October where Kelly wasn’t ready for the type of fight Davis brings. That’s how I feel about this fight although I think Hardy will put up a much better fight. I think once it hits the ground though Davis will show the difference between the two fighters.

Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
Prediction- Fisher on points
This is an interesting fight. Fisher is one of those guys who gets dominated or scores dramatic stoppage wins and he does it with strikes or submissions, he’s not one dimensional at all. Uno hasn’t been stopped in a long time and the fact that he survived 15 minutes on the ground with Shinya Aoki leads me to believe that Fisher won’t submit him. I’m finding it hard to see Uno winning the fight though unless Fisher is off his game (which could happen after a long layoff like Fisher has had). Fisher’s wrestling is one of his weaker areas, but I think he has the edge in wrestling in this fight. Uno is well rounded, but against a good strong Lightweight like Fisher I don’t think his game is up to standard anymore. Fisher to score a close but unanimous decision.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Mustapha Al-Turk
Prediction- Cro  Cop by 1st round knockout
Please please please don’t let Mirko have slipped this much.I’m hoping at least one of the three past generation fighters can win on this card and it’ll be sad if Cro Cop’s game has declined this much that he can’t beat someone like Al-Turk. That’s not taking anything away from Mustapha, but four years ago this is the type of fighter Cro Cop feasted on and brutalised. I’ve got to back one of the three (the other two being Wanderlei and Uno) so hopefully Cro Cop lets me reminisce a little bit about the glory days of PRIDE FC. I’ll stop before I start talking about how Wanderlei makes soccer kicks look poetic.

Preliminaries
Justin Bucholz vs Terry Etim (Etim on points)
Dale Hartt vs Denis Siver (Siver on points)
Peter Sobotta vs Paul Taylor (Taylor by 2nd round TKO)
Rolando Delgado vs Paul Kelly (Kelly on points)
Denis Stronje vs Stefan Struve (Struve on points)
John Hathaway vs Rick Story (Story by 1st round TKO)

Strikeforce: Lawler vs Shields Predictions

 

Strikeforce has really emerged as one of the better promotions out there now. This card has some good talent and big names on it (well on the main card) and with no other MMA or any other combat sports on this weekend, it’ll make for good viewing. Headling the bout is a fight between EliteXC Welterweight and Middleweight champions Jake Shields and Robbie lawler at a catchweight of 183lbs. Why they didn’t just fight at 185 is beyond me, but the weight should make no difference as Lawler isn’t a huge 185lber having fought in the UFC at Welterweight early in his career. Also appearing on the card is former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski against undefeated prospect Brett Rogers and another catchweight bout between Scott Smith and Nick Diaz, this one at 179lbs.

Robbie Lawler vs Jake Shields
Prediction- Lawler by 2nd round knockout
Not sure what to make of this fight, so I’m going with the bigger fighter with the better wrestling. Shields has among the best ground skills in MMA, but his stand-up sucks and that will be bad if he can’t get Lawler down. Lawler has serious power which makes up for a lot of his technical retardedness, but he also has solid wrestling abilities. If Shields gets Lawler on his back, I think he’ll submit him without too much of a struggle because he’s that good on top.

 Andrei Arlovski vs Brett Rogers
Predictions- Arlovski by 1st round knockout
I doubt this will be the war everyone expects it to be because they both hit too damn hard so I expect someone’s going to sleep in the first or second round. Arlovski’s boxing is the sharper of the two and while Rogers has serious power, I think Arlovski will chop him down with leg kicks and land that big right hand over and over again until Rogers goes down. The thing I’m worried about being an Arlovski fan is that historically his losses have come in twos. He lost back-to-back to Rodriguez and Rizzo, and then again to Sylvia twice. It could be nothing, or it could be a big confidence thing that a hungry undefeated guy waiting for his chance could take advantage of.

Nick Diaz vs Scott Smith
Prediction- Diaz by 1st round submission
While Smith is an incredibly tough dude as well as the bigger guy in this fight, his ground game has always sucked. Diaz has excellent hands and I think he’ll be able to hang with Smith standing up long enough to take it to the ground where I think he’ll make quick work of Smith.

Phil Baroni vs Joe Riggs
Prediction- Riggs on points
This could be a war until Baroni gasses. Baroni hates everyone he fights and Riggs isn’t the most respectful character out there so I think these two will stand in the middle of the cage and bang with each other. Riggs though has the much better cardio as well as ground skills and maybe even stand-up, although I’d favour Baroni there because of his power. Baroni’s tough and doesn’t give up though, so I think this one will go three rounds.

Kevin Randleman vs Mike Whitehead
Prediction- Whitehead by 1st round submission
I’m looking forward to Randlemans return because I don’t like him and I think Whitehead will destroy him. Randleman has to be the most boring MMA champ ever and the shit that he talks just irritates me. Whitehead will have better wrestling, stand-up and submissions and I think he’ll get the takedown after a bit of effort, pass the non existant Randleman guard and submit him with either a kimura or a rear naked choke.

DREAM.9 Preview

The stacked MMA week finishes Tuesday as the next installment of DREAM takes place and minus the last New Years Eve show this has to be the best of all DREAM shows so far. There’s a mixture of classic fights in the making, significant fights and just pure Japanese MMA freakshows on display which should make this event very entertaining. In a nutshell the card consists of the quarter finals of the Featherweight Grand Prix, a Lightweight Super Fight, a Middleweight title fight and four freakshow matches that are going to be watched for no other reason then curiosity.

Super Hulk Tournament Round one
The Super Hulk Tournament was announced a few weeks back and people are still shaking their heads at some of the matchups. Most notably is the matchup between baseball (yes, baseball) superstar Jose Canseco and the world’s largest professional fighter Hong Man Choi. Canseco has no fighting background and was knocked out in a celebrity boxing match by a man much smaller then him. This is the only fight on the card I’m not looking forward to as Canseco could be seriously hurt which would have major mainstream implications for the sport.

Bob Sapp returns to Japan to take on the Japanese journeyman Ikuhisa ‘The Punk’ Minowa who is now referred to as Minowaman. Sapp has about a 200lb weight advantage over the 190lb Minowa, but his lack of ground game could get him in a lot of trouble against the leg lock specialist. Minowa has submitted big men before, most notably Kimo Leopoldo in a PRIDE Bushido event a few years ago. I like Sapp in this fight, probably by quick and brutal knockout. In the same league as this bout is the one between gigantic journeyman Jan Nortje and Light Heavyweight fringe contender Sokoudjou. Sokoudjou needs this win or his career will basically be over. Nortje is most known for his knockout win over Bob Sapp at a Strikeforce event last year, but that win was one of only two in his MMA career. Sokoudjou will likely win this fight quickly by submission.

The interesting (in terms of skill vs skill) fight in this tournament and the one that will likely produce the eventual winner is the Gegard Mousasi vs Mar Hunt fight. Mousasi is last years DREAM Grand Prix winner in the Middleweight division after memorable upset wins over Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef and Ronaldo Jacare. Hunt is a former K-1 World Grand Prix champion who has been fighting in MMA of late although with little recent success as he suffered an 18 second knockout loss to Melvin Manhoef at New Years Eve last year. Hunt on his game though will be a very stern test for Mousasi, especially considering the 90lb odd weight advantage he has. I’m picking Mousasi, his grappling should help him win a clear unanimous decision.

Featherweight Grand Prix Quarter Finals
Some very interesting fights in the 2nd round of this tournament. The return of Kid Yamamoto against one fight veteran Joe Warren being the exception. While I didn’t give Warren a chance against Beebe, I’m going to risk making the same mistake twice as Yamamoto is simply too good for a one fight veteran, Kid should win this fight quickly. The other fight I think will be one sided is the one between Yoshiro Maeda and Hiroyuki Takaya. Takaya is the weakest of the fighters in the eight and despite any size advantage, Maeda’s skills are exceptional and I can’t see him losing this one outside of the punchers chance that Takaya has.

The Fernandes-Imanari fight should is the most interesting as Fernandes is an exceptional BJJ player while Imanari is one of the stand-out Japanese ground fighters. Hopefully the fight hits the ground and we get an old school classic MMA ground fight and I’m picking Fernandes to win this one because although Imanari has never been submitted, I doubt he’s grappled someone in the elite class of Fernandes. The other fight in the tournament sees American Abel Cullum up against Japanese fighter Hideo Tokoro who despite his loss in the first round advances due to Daiki Hata’s inability to be in shape for this fight. Tokoro is a brave fighter who has fought many men larger then himself in his career which explains his average record. Cullum is a solid grappler who will likely win this fight over the allotted time.

Super Fights
 
Gesias Calvancante vs Tastuya Kawajiri
This is the fight I’m looking forward to the most on this card. Two of the world’s most exciting and skilled Lightweights battling for what will likely be the next shot at the DREAM Lightweight title after Aoki and Hansen battle again at DREAM.10. JZ Calvan hasn’t fought since the loss to Aoki at DREAM.2 last year. Kawajiri made the semi finals of the tournament last year before losing to Eddie Alvarez in what was fight of the year in my opinion. Calvancante is a very well dangerous fighter in all aspects of the game while Kawajiri throws some of the best punches in MMA and is dangerous against any man he fights because of this. I give the edge in the stand-up to Kawajiri, while JZ has a big advantage if he can get on top although that will be hard as Tatsuya has shown good takedown defence in the past. Both guys are big for the weight, although JZ is probably the bigger guy having fought in higher weight divisions in the past. I’m going with Kawajiri, although I’m not at all confident. I think he’ll win this over 15 exciting minutes in what will likely be a fight of the year candidate if someone doesn’t totally dominate.

Ronaldo Jacare vs Mayhem Miller
(DREAM Middleweight Championship)
The main event sees a rematch of last years DREAM.4 match between Jacare and Mayhem for the vacant Middleweight title that was vacated by Gegard Mousasi earlier this year. Jacare won last years contest in an exciting grappling match by unanimous decision before losing to Mousasi by knockout in the final of the tournament. Mayhem stands a serious chance in this fight if he can keep it standing but I’m picking Jacare to win the rematch, probably over the full distance as their last fight was.

UFC 98 Predictions

The Pacquiao-Hatton hangover ends this weekend with a good few days of fight action, none of it more spectacular then the UFC event this weekend. Headlining the card is Rashad Evans making the first defence of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship that he won in December from Forrest Griffin. His opponent is the undefeated Brazilian star Lyoto Machida who has won all six of his fights in the UFC against the likes of Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou and Thiago Silva. Outside of the UFC he has defeated two legends of the sport; Rich Franklin and BJ Penn (although Penn gave him a huge weight advantage). The co feature on the card is the long awaited grudge fighting between TUF6 coaches and former UFC Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra. The two were expected to fight at UFC 79, but a back injury forced Serra off the card and both were then beaten in their last outings early last year.

Predictions
Main Card
Rashad Evans vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Evans by 4th round knockout
Yes I am picking against the so far unchallenged Machida (and when I say unchallenged, he’s definately beaten good fighters, just none of them have tested him yet). There’s a few factors in this pick. First of all is Evans new found boxing skills which is something Machida is yet to face in the Octagon. None of his opponents have had good technical boxing ability and with this I believe Evans can capitalise on some of Machida’s unorthodox evasive maneuvers and land his hard right hand. Next there’s Evans wrestling background, which Machida has faced in the past but not combined with the hand speed and boxing ability that Evans has. Rashad should be able to better use his stand-up to set up takedowns should he choose to take the fight down whereas someone like Tito Ortiz or Kazuhiro Nakamura had no set-ups to their takedowns which made them useless. Not to mention that Evans has probably the best tactician in MMA in his corner. If anyone can figure Machida out it’s Greg Jackson.
The key factor though is Evan’s incredible conditioning. I can’t remember ever seeing Rashad tired in a fight. Machida’s stamina has never really been questioned because he’s never had to fight in the late rounds at anything other then the pace he wanted to go at. If Rashad can land some shots or score some takedowns he could fluster Machida and break him down with his workrate. I think Machida will be overwhelmed especially as the fight hits the 3rd and 4th rounds and Evans will come over the top of him and score a knockout in what should be a very entertaining fight.

Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
Prediction- Serra by 2nd round knockout
Yes I’m going with both Rashad and Serra. While Matt Hughes is very effective at what he does and it could work against Serra, I think he’ll need more then just good wrestling and a strong top game to win this fight. If the fight stays on the feet for a long period of time it’s big advantage Serra. If Serra gets on top in this fight it’s big, big advantage Serra. If Hughes gets on top of Serra he could very well get submitted although I think if Serra is on his back for too long he’ll do well to pull anything off on the bigger man. I think the big key in this fight is Serra’s improved stand-up and his punching power. Hughes’ stand-up has always been garbage and his keeness to trade in recent fights makes me believe Serra will take his head off with an overhand right and finish Hughes’ career.

ps- I’m going for Serra as well just so you know who’s side I’m on.

Frankie Edgar vs Sean Sherk
Prediction- Sherk on points
Sherk will give Edgar a chance if he’s stupid enough to box with him like he did with Tyson Griffin. If he fights like the Sherk who held the belt he’ll win this one easily.

Drew McFedries vs Xavier Foupa-Pokam
Prediction- Foupa-Pokam by 1st round submission
Like Sherk, Xavier gives McFedries a huge chance if he stands with him. He has excellent Muay Thai, but McFedries is as dangerous a banger as there is. Xavier’s submisison game is also good while McFedries’ is poor. If Xavier takes this to the mat he’ll tap McFedries quickly. If they stand up this could be fight of the night.

Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
Prediction- Sonnen on points
I’m picking this based on quality of opposition. I think Sonnen’s experience will help him in this one and his wrestling should dictate the course of the fight.

Preliminaries
Patrick Barry vs Tim Hague
Prediction- Barry by 2nd round knockout

Kyle Bradley vs Philipe Nover
Prediction- Nover by 1st round knockout

Andre Gusman vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Soszynski on points

Dave Kaplan vs George Roop
Prediction- Kaplan on points

Brock Larson vs Chris Wilson
Prediction- Larson by 2nd round submission

Brandon Wolff vs Yoshiyuko Yoshida
Prediction- Yoshida by 1st round submission

Boxing Breakdown: Dawson vs Tarver II

For some reason Main Event decided to show the Chad Dawson vs Antonio tarver mis rematch this weekend while they’ve neglected other events in the past that were certainly more worthy then this one. Tarver exercised a rematch clause to make this pointless matchup for the sole reason of lining his pocket one last time before he calls it a day and Dawson should really beat Tarver as easily if not more easily then he did the first time they fought. The Light Heavyweight division has gone to shit over the last few years. It had that brief moment of excitement after the days of Roy Jones jnr clowning everyone when Tarver and Glenn Johnson beat him and then fought but even those fights were pretty lacklustre. There’s only a couple of fights that interest me at this weight, and they all involve Chad Dawson (and none of them involve Antonio Tarver). First, there’s a fight with Bernard Hopkins and secondly there’s a rematch with Glenn Johnson. Now that I’ve ranted long enough to make this article into at least a paragraph long, I’ll end it. Chad Dawson by 7th round knockout.

Boxing Breakdown: Ricky Hatton vs Manny Pacquiao

I really wanted to do a few posts on this fight, but I’ve been reduced to one because of time constraints. This fight is the biggest fight of the year and will be hard to top unless Pacquiao wins and fights Mayweather later in the year. Here you have the pound for pound number one fighting the dominant four year reigning champion at a weight higher then he’s competed for a title at. Both men have balls for taking this fight and it’s one of those fights that you can sit back and enjoy (unless your Phillipino or British).

Pacquiao is currently riding an incredible (incredible in terms of who he’s beaten, not the number of wins) nine fight winning streak that has included wins over Oscar De La Hoya, Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera and two stoppage wins over Erik Morales. Last year alone he captured two world titles in two different weight divisions and then dominated and stopped Oscar De La Hoya to cap off what was an amazing year. Prior to the titles he won at Junior Lightweight and Lightweight last year, Pacquiao has held the Linear Featherweight title (Pacquiao beat Barrera who beat Hamed who held all four belts at some stage during his reign), the IBF Junior Featherweight title and the WBC Flyweight title. This win would make him a legitimate three weight Linear Champion (140, 130, 126) (maybe even four as some claim he was the Linear Flyweight champion) and a six weight world title holder putting him basically in a league of his own unless you’re a De La Hoya fanboy who counts his WBO Middleweight and Junior Lightweight titles.

Pacquiao’s offensive capabilities are almost second to none. He punches with a ferocity that ranks along some of the all-time greats combining a monsterous workrate with explosive speed and devastating power. Lately Pacquiao has added solid defensive skills to his arsenal over the course of his recent five or six fights making him as dangerous a puncher as they come. Pacquiao has shown a weakness to good counter punchers like Marquez (and Barrera in the rematch for a short period) and guys who can control the range and punish him when he lunges in like Erik Morales. Hatton isn’t really either of those so you would think that he’d be able to dominate Hatton with his offense and punish Hatton’s sometimes lack of defence. However, Hatton’s in-fighting combined with his size is something we’ve yet to see Pacquiao have to deal with.

Ricky Hatton was often criticised on his way up for fighting over the hill fighters and soft touches while building up his record, but his 11th round stoppage over long time Junior Welterweight king Kostya Tszyu in 2005 will go down in British boxing history alongside great wins by British fighters like Turpin-Robinson I and Honeyghan-Curry. Hatton then moved up and won the WBA Welterweight title, before vacating it to make now six defences of his Light Welterweight crown. Jose Luis Castillo is the big name on his record since the Tszyu win, with Hatton stopping the Lightweight powerhouse with a body shot in the 4th round. The lone loss on his record came in a 2007 super fight with Floyd Mayweather Jnr when Hatton moved up to Welterweight to challenge the pound for pound king. Mayweather outboxed the Mancurian, stopping him in the 10th round.

Hatton’s style is overwhelming. While he takes punches early in the fight his aggression and physical strength especially at 140lbs are very hard to match without an impregnable defence. While Hatton has slowed down in recent fights, he always rises for the big fights as he showed in the Tszyu and Castillo wins as well as glimpses of in the Mayweather fight. Hatton’s big weapon is his foot speed as he cuts the danger zone for getting caught down rapidly allowing him to work on the inside and smother his opponents offence with his physical strength. Two things that could get Hatton in trouble are his tendancy to cut and his face first style which could spell badly if Pacquiao starts well and scores with some solid shots early on.

I’m really on the fence with this one, but I’m going for the upset and picking Hatton to win by late stoppage. I think his physical strength and body punching (should he use it) will hurt Manny in the late rounds and he physicality of the fight will be too much for the smaller Pacquiao. Hatton in my opinion has to start well to win this fight as he did against both Castillo and Tszyu. If Pacquiao starts strongly and builds a lead on the cards or causes some serious early damage on Hatton I believe he’ll ride that confidence to a one sided victory. One thing I’ve noticed with Pacquiao is that he isn’t a big fan of being hit in the body and thats going to have to be a key part of Hatton’s gameplan if he wants to win. Still, the combination of size and aggression that Hatton brings to this fight I think will cancel out Pacquiao’s speed and power and he’ll wear Pacquiao down and stop him late. Ricky Hatton by 10th round knockout.