UFC: Rio shaping up, Shogun-Griffin II to co-main event

The card for UFC’s return to Brazil is starting to take shape and is looking to be one of the more entertaining cards of the year, on paper at least. Middleweight king Anderson Silva is expected to take on the last man to hold a victory over him in Yushin Okami (as bogus as that win was, another story for another day) in the main event of the night, a fun rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions will co-feature. Recently disposed of UFC Light Heavyweight champion and former PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua takes on the man who ruined his UFC debut in Forrest Griffin. These two previously met at UFC 76 in September of 2007 with Griffin winning in a war via rear naked choke in the closing seconds of the fight.

I really think this is a bad matchup for Shogun coming off the battering he received from Jones. Griffin is another big guy with solid fundamentals who has the ability to shut down Shogun’s game with his size, plus he is a much more polished fighter then he was when he took on Shogun in 2007. That fight was the fight that Griffin showed what he had in and he’s only improved since. In saying that though, Shogun didn’t have much in the way of cardio in that first fight and Griffin’s chin has since been exposed a few times so it’s a hard fight to call. Rematches in MMA are often so hard to predict especially when you have two top guys fighting four years after they first fought. Fighters and fighting evolve and change so much in four years that it’s hard to picture how the fight will go the second time around. One thing I think this fight won’t be is boring, the way these two fight (especially if Shogun brings cardio this time) it’s going to be a high tempo dog fight with either Shogun’s cardio or Griffins chin giving out. I am leaning towards Griffin though, I think he’s a bad style matchup for Shogun and it may be the push Shogun needs to think about dropping to 185.

Also on this card is another fun slugfest featuring PRIDE 2005 Lightweight Grand Prix champion Takanori Gomi against rising Brazilian Edson Barboza. Barboza is 2-0 in his UFC career and 8-0 overall, coming off a points win over Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128. Gomi’s coming off a loss to Clay Guida and will need to put the prospect away in order to stay relevant in the division. Add to this the possible return of Royce Gracie and it should be an entertaining card (if not the most important one of the year).

UFC 110 Picks

UFC 110 in Australia takes place tomorrow and with the excitement of attending my first UFC event I’ve left it a bit late to post my picks up. With nothing better to do to kill the remaining 12 or so hours before the first preliminary fight, here’s my picks for tomorrows event:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Pick- Nogueira by 2nd round submission
While I agree that Velasquez is probably the safe pick in this fight, I don’t see any way he can win this fight inside the distance and against a finisher and a survivor like Nogueira that is dangerous. As good as Velasquez is, his game revolves around his wrestling and his explosiveness. His power has appeared overrated in his last three fights with an inability to finish Cheick Kongo despite the numerous advantageous positions and strikes he landed, a controversial stoppage against Ben Rothwell where he again landed numerous strikes that were taken as comfortably as one could take numerous strikes from a 230lb Mexican fighter and a one sided beatdown that went way longer then it should have against Denis Stojnic. Velasquez’s striking is technically below average and his lack of positional knowledge on the ground could get him into trouble against a Jiu Jitsu master like Nogueira.

Nogueira has two big advantages in this fight; boxing and jiu jitsu. Velasquez has proven he can take a punch from a top level MMA striker in the fight with Cheick Kongo, but if he chooses to keep the fight on the feet Nogueira will outbox him en route to a unanimous decision win. If Velasquez decides to use his wrestling to take the fight to the floor, he won’t gain the superior positioning against Nogueira that he has enjoyed in previous fights. I have no doubt that Nogueira could sweep Velasquez as he has swept plenty of good fighters in the past who have solid top games (most notably Fedor Emelianenko although it did him little good). While Nogueira’s pure jiu jitsu isn’t on the absolute elite level, his game is among the best for MMA as he works off his opponents strikes. I think Velasquez will probably be ahead on points early in the fight, but will likely fall victim to one of Nogueira’s chokes during a scramble sometime during the middle of the fight.

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping
Prediction- Silva by 1st round knockout
I honestly think that Bisping is scared of Silva. He’s trying to put on a brave front, but he seems to be reacting to whatever Wanderlei does. At the weigh in he seemed to be comfortable until he had to stare Wanderlei down. This is where Wanderlei is at his best, when he has an opponent who he can intimidate. Bisping’s only real shot in this fight is if Wanderlei’s weight cut severely effects him (he looks a hell of a lot better then he did when he fought Franklin so I assume he’s done it better this time) and then he’d have to employ a hit and run style and win on points. I think Wanderlei’s almost reckless style will overwhelm Bisping and he’ll be able to utilise his clinch game and overall just punish ‘The Count’ until he can’t take anymore. Silva by brutal, one sided knockout.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropolous
Prediction- Stevenson on points
I think the UFC are banking on a big win by George so they can use him as they used Bisping to build shows around him in Australia. I think they will be spoilt as Stevenson’s top game will be a bit too much at this stage of Georges career. If George can keep the fight standing, he’ll punish ‘Daddy’ as Stevenson’s stand-up has always been poor, but Stevenson is a solid wrestler and I believe he’ll win a unanimous, but highly competitive decision while utilising his top game.

Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
Prediction- Jardine on points
Bader is still completing his game and one of the areas he lacks is in the stand-up. Jardine is coming off a big knockout loss and back to back losses, but with the quality wrestlers he has to train with I think he’ll be well prepared for Bader’s takedowns. Bader on the other hand has no one to replicate Jardine’s unorthodox (thats a kind way of putting it) striking style and I think once Jardine gets into a rhythm, Bader will have a hard time getting anything going against him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh
Prediction- Cro Cop by 1st round knockout (hopefully a head kick)
Well most people were disappointed when Ben Rothwell pulled out on Friday, but I sort of wasn’t. Being the old school PRIDE fan that I am I’m sort of hoping to see Nogueira pull of a come from behind submission win, Wanderlei destroy someone and Cro Cop win by head kick knockout. He has a much better chance of knocking out Perosh then he did Rothwell (I’d have picked Rothwell in their fight). Perosh is a UFC veteran, having dropped fights to Jeff Monson and Critian Wellisch and he is a solid ground fighter having competed in Abu Dhabi, but he has been the victim of some knockouts in the past (one of them to James Te-Huna, who fights on the prelims) and I expect nothing different from him here.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Bonnar on points
Bonnar’s a handful when he’s on his game and I think he’ll be on his game tomorrow. It’s a pickem fight I feel and I think he’s due to pull one out.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Foster
Prediction- Foster on points
This fight will be fight of the night. These two live for the war and I expect nothing less. Foster is the less battle hardened of the two, but he brings more physical tools to the fight and thats where I think he wins it.

CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
Prediction- Dollaway on points
It’s been a long wait for the return of Goran, almost two years and I think Dollaway is too much too soon after such a long lay off. Goran looked good when he defeated Gouveia, but I think Dollaway will be hungry for a big win and will grind out a tough decision.

James Te-Huna vs Igor Pokrajac
Prediction- Igor by 1st round submission
I’m not holding out much hope for the Kiwi kickboxer. His ground game is pretty average and Igor is an experienced wrestler and once it hits the ground Te-Huna will be a fish out of water.

UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun; why Shogun shouldn’t be ruled out

UFC 104 is now just a few hours away and despite any lack of depth to the card, the main event gives an almost boxing-like feel to the card with the magnitude of the fight. I write this article mainly because of the lack of a chance people seem to be giving Shogun to win. Having seen a lot of Shogun’s MMA career, I know for a fact that he stands an excellent chance and while I think he’ll have to fight a near perfect fight to win this fight, I honestly think he will win it. No one is invincible and that includes Lyoto Machida and I feel style wise that Shogun has the best chance to win this fight and here’s why:

Muay Thai
Shogun brings something that is yet to be seen by Machida in his MMA career in terms of Shogun’s excellent Thai Boxing skills. Shogun is the stereotypical Muay Thai fighter in that his knees and kicks are far better then his hands (don’t let the Liddell left hook KO fool you, that was set up with the numerous leg kicks he had landed earlier in the round). Leg kicks, if properly utilised, will be a big factor in this fight for the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix champion as Machida relies heavily on his foot speed to work the unorthodox angles that he uses to avoid strikes. If Shogun finds a home for a few well placed low kicks early in the fight, Machida’s foot speed should slow allowing for Shogun to work his top level clinch game and takedowns as well as being able to better capitilise on Machida’s hands down approach. With his legs unable to move him out of range at the speed he likes, fighting with his hands down will be a dangerous approach and something that history in combat sports has told us is that the fighters with the better defensive game are usually over compensating for a weaker chin.

Foot Speed
Machida’s uncanny agility for a man of his size is what has given everyone he’s faced problems in their fights. Shogun’s foot speed was also legendary back in his PRIDE days where he could trap even the most fleet footed opponents up against the ropes. The difference here is the size of the UFC Octagon and the PRIDE ring aren’t even comparable. However, a recent quote from Shogun says that he is now comfortable with the Octagon size and has altered his game to adjust to the larger fighting surface. I think with Shogun’s mobility he’ll be able to cut the distance quicker then anyone Machida has faced and land those leg kicks or get that clinch where he can do damage to Machida.

Conditioning/Durability
Machida is used to fighting at the pace he likes to fight at. I really think he has to get Shogun out of there in the first two or three rounds if he wants to win this fight because of the pace Shogun sets. Shogun set a world class pace in his glory days in PRIDE and either he’s going to get caught early or his pace will wear on Machida. Apart from the odd hiccup in his fights, Machida has fought his entire career at the pace he wants to and has never been through a long war into the late rounds. Shogun sinks opponents with the pace he sets as he is relentless and as soon as they slow down a little bit he becomes overwhelming. With so many questions being asked about his conditioning due to the Coleman and Griffin fights, the question people should also be asking is what happens if Shogun is in shape (which considering the magnitude of the fight is the more likely scenario) and he gets Machida into a dog fight that lasts past the 2nd or 3rd round? Shogun has been into the late rounds in tough fights, Machida hasn’t. Can Machida handle the pace if he’s actually pushed? Shogun also has a solid chin and while Machida is an excellent puncher, I think he’ll have to batter the former Chute Boxe member in order to finish him.

Ground Game
Most noted for his Muay Thai game, people who watched Shogun in his PRIDE days know that the best aspect of his game is probably his ground game. Shogun’s top game is as dangerous as anyone due to his unorthodox ways of striking from the guard as well as his escapes from the bottom (something UFC fans would have seen against both Coleman and Griffin) and his submissions, in particular his leg locks, are deadly. Should this fight hit the ground you’d have to give Shogun a huge advantage. While Machida is a black belt himself and has won by submission, I really don’t think his ground game is at the level of Shoguns and considering the fight is unlikely to hit the ground unless Shogun has enforced his game on Machida somewhat. In that case I think a tired Machida will struggle to deal with a fired up Shogun on top of him.

In saying that…..
There’s a lot that has to go right for Shogun to win this fight. Machida’s hands are far superior and he’ll be the crisper fighter early on in this fight. Plus we really don’t know how good Shogun is off the back of a knockout win over a (seemingly) over the hill Chuck Liddell (to be fair to Liddell, all of his KO losses have come to guys who have gone on to be UFC champions). The last two times Shogun has been into the late rounds he has struggled with his fitness and it even cost him in his fight with Forrest Griffin. But with this being the biggest fight of Shogun’s career, you have to assume it will be the best Shogun we’ve seen and for those of you who have seen what he was capable of in his 2005 run to win the PRIDE Grand Prix you’d all know that this guy is a serious threat. All these so called experts on some of the sites have written Shogun off because Machida is the more hyped fighter of the moment and has looked unbeatable and have even gone to the extremes to say this is a meaningless title defence. To them I say, do your homework, learn the history of the sport and don’t go jumping on every bandwagon that comes along. As a long-time Shogun fan, I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Mauricio Shogun will win by 4th round TKO after kicking Machida’s legs out early and imposing his deadly clinch and top game on him in the later rounds.

DREAM.9 Preview

The stacked MMA week finishes Tuesday as the next installment of DREAM takes place and minus the last New Years Eve show this has to be the best of all DREAM shows so far. There’s a mixture of classic fights in the making, significant fights and just pure Japanese MMA freakshows on display which should make this event very entertaining. In a nutshell the card consists of the quarter finals of the Featherweight Grand Prix, a Lightweight Super Fight, a Middleweight title fight and four freakshow matches that are going to be watched for no other reason then curiosity.

Super Hulk Tournament Round one
The Super Hulk Tournament was announced a few weeks back and people are still shaking their heads at some of the matchups. Most notably is the matchup between baseball (yes, baseball) superstar Jose Canseco and the world’s largest professional fighter Hong Man Choi. Canseco has no fighting background and was knocked out in a celebrity boxing match by a man much smaller then him. This is the only fight on the card I’m not looking forward to as Canseco could be seriously hurt which would have major mainstream implications for the sport.

Bob Sapp returns to Japan to take on the Japanese journeyman Ikuhisa ‘The Punk’ Minowa who is now referred to as Minowaman. Sapp has about a 200lb weight advantage over the 190lb Minowa, but his lack of ground game could get him in a lot of trouble against the leg lock specialist. Minowa has submitted big men before, most notably Kimo Leopoldo in a PRIDE Bushido event a few years ago. I like Sapp in this fight, probably by quick and brutal knockout. In the same league as this bout is the one between gigantic journeyman Jan Nortje and Light Heavyweight fringe contender Sokoudjou. Sokoudjou needs this win or his career will basically be over. Nortje is most known for his knockout win over Bob Sapp at a Strikeforce event last year, but that win was one of only two in his MMA career. Sokoudjou will likely win this fight quickly by submission.

The interesting (in terms of skill vs skill) fight in this tournament and the one that will likely produce the eventual winner is the Gegard Mousasi vs Mar Hunt fight. Mousasi is last years DREAM Grand Prix winner in the Middleweight division after memorable upset wins over Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef and Ronaldo Jacare. Hunt is a former K-1 World Grand Prix champion who has been fighting in MMA of late although with little recent success as he suffered an 18 second knockout loss to Melvin Manhoef at New Years Eve last year. Hunt on his game though will be a very stern test for Mousasi, especially considering the 90lb odd weight advantage he has. I’m picking Mousasi, his grappling should help him win a clear unanimous decision.

Featherweight Grand Prix Quarter Finals
Some very interesting fights in the 2nd round of this tournament. The return of Kid Yamamoto against one fight veteran Joe Warren being the exception. While I didn’t give Warren a chance against Beebe, I’m going to risk making the same mistake twice as Yamamoto is simply too good for a one fight veteran, Kid should win this fight quickly. The other fight I think will be one sided is the one between Yoshiro Maeda and Hiroyuki Takaya. Takaya is the weakest of the fighters in the eight and despite any size advantage, Maeda’s skills are exceptional and I can’t see him losing this one outside of the punchers chance that Takaya has.

The Fernandes-Imanari fight should is the most interesting as Fernandes is an exceptional BJJ player while Imanari is one of the stand-out Japanese ground fighters. Hopefully the fight hits the ground and we get an old school classic MMA ground fight and I’m picking Fernandes to win this one because although Imanari has never been submitted, I doubt he’s grappled someone in the elite class of Fernandes. The other fight in the tournament sees American Abel Cullum up against Japanese fighter Hideo Tokoro who despite his loss in the first round advances due to Daiki Hata’s inability to be in shape for this fight. Tokoro is a brave fighter who has fought many men larger then himself in his career which explains his average record. Cullum is a solid grappler who will likely win this fight over the allotted time.

Super Fights
 
Gesias Calvancante vs Tastuya Kawajiri
This is the fight I’m looking forward to the most on this card. Two of the world’s most exciting and skilled Lightweights battling for what will likely be the next shot at the DREAM Lightweight title after Aoki and Hansen battle again at DREAM.10. JZ Calvan hasn’t fought since the loss to Aoki at DREAM.2 last year. Kawajiri made the semi finals of the tournament last year before losing to Eddie Alvarez in what was fight of the year in my opinion. Calvancante is a very well dangerous fighter in all aspects of the game while Kawajiri throws some of the best punches in MMA and is dangerous against any man he fights because of this. I give the edge in the stand-up to Kawajiri, while JZ has a big advantage if he can get on top although that will be hard as Tatsuya has shown good takedown defence in the past. Both guys are big for the weight, although JZ is probably the bigger guy having fought in higher weight divisions in the past. I’m going with Kawajiri, although I’m not at all confident. I think he’ll win this over 15 exciting minutes in what will likely be a fight of the year candidate if someone doesn’t totally dominate.

Ronaldo Jacare vs Mayhem Miller
(DREAM Middleweight Championship)
The main event sees a rematch of last years DREAM.4 match between Jacare and Mayhem for the vacant Middleweight title that was vacated by Gegard Mousasi earlier this year. Jacare won last years contest in an exciting grappling match by unanimous decision before losing to Mousasi by knockout in the final of the tournament. Mayhem stands a serious chance in this fight if he can keep it standing but I’m picking Jacare to win the rematch, probably over the full distance as their last fight was.

UFC 100: Lesnar vs Mir II announced

Over the last few days the UFC has officially announced the UFC 100 card that’s had everyone talking and it’s as good as people are expecting. While there’s one or two fights that are yet to be confirmed, every fight on the main card has major implications for the division that it’s in and some of the preliminaries would easily be main card fights on a different card. The main two fights on the card see probably the two most anticipated championship fights of the year in the UFC. The card, ‘UFC 100: Lesnar vs Mir 2′ takes place July 11th in Las Vegas.

Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will make the first defence of the title he took from Randy Couture last November against UFC interim champion Frank Mir. The fight is a rematch of Lesnar’s UFC debut at UFC 81 last year in which Lesnar started fast and landed some hard shots to Mir’s face on the ground before being caught in a kneebar from the former UFC champion. Mir was then locked in to fight interim champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira while Randy Couture was fighting the UFC in court with the two coaching on the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Then with Couture’s comeback and the two coaches already set to do battle, Lesnar off the back of his domination over Heath Herring got first crack at Couture and took the title. Mir then dramatically became the first man to finish Nogueira with a 2nd round knockout leading to the mega fight. (There is that man from Russia named Fedor Emelianenko who would probably beat both guys on the same night, but I won’t mention him as this is a UFC post and it wouldn’t be appropriate now would it?)

The co main event is arguably the most anticipated fight of the year now that St Pierre vs Penn is out of the way. Thiago Alves last year ran through Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck to make himself the clearest contender for St Pierre’s title that he won back from Matt Serra last April. St Pierre has defended the championship twice now with a decision win over Jon Fitch and a 4th round TKO of BJ Penn. It’s always interesting when you get a contender who has proven himself to be head and shoulders above the rest of the division up against an outstanding champion. You’ve had fights like Hughes-Trigg II, Hughes-St Pierre II, Couture vs Liddell (any fight) and if you want to talk PRIDE there’s Nogueira vs Fedor, Fedor vs Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva vs Rampage II. In all of those fights the contender for the belt had dominated all of the other contenders in the past to make themselves the clearest possible challenger for the title and all of those fights were memorable.

Also on the main card you have TUF 9 coaches Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson doing battle for what will probably be a shot at UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Then there’s another Middleweight matchup between two of the top contenders in the division with new signing Yoshihiro Akiyama who has wins over the likes of Denis Kang and Melvin Manhoef taking on Alan Belcher. The main card is likely to be filled out with the Paulo Thiago-Jon Fitch Welterweight scrap but there’s also UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman (I’m sorry, everytime I go to write his name I think of the way Mauro Rinallo used to always announce him as ‘Mark The Hammer Coleman’ and it just ends up typing itself) fighting Stephan Bonnar and Jim Miller vs Mac Danzig that could take the last spot on the main card. Check the MMA schedule link at the top of the page for the full card.

Fedor KOs Arlovski at Day of Reckoning

Fedor Emelianenko KO1 (punch) Andre Arlovski
Fedor Emelianenko won again over another top ranked opponent, knocking Andrei Arlovski out in the first round of their fight for Fedor’s WAMMA Heavyweight title. Arlovski was getting the better of the fight, using a solid one-two combination as well as hard leg kicks and front kicks which kept the former PRIDE Heavyweight Champion off balance throughout the contest. Fedor looked to be strung on a couple of occasions by Arlovski’s power but recovered quickly and fought back. Arlovski was also showing good takedown defence, avoiding going to the mat when the Sambo expert got a hold of him.
However as many other fighters have found, Fedor’s well rounded skills and patience proved Arlovski’s undoing and the one time Arlovski made a mistake Fedor ended the fight suddenly. Arlovski backed Fedor into a corner with a front kick and a right hand and then jumped in with a flying knee only to be caught in mid-air by a short overhand right and knocked unconscious. In a fight that lasted 3 minutes 14 seconds, Arlovski controlled probably 3:10 of that time and yet those few seconds is all that Fedor needed to end matters.
While Fedor did look human in this fight, Arlovski is one of the top fighters in the World and would likely destroy every Heavyweight in the UFC. The way to beating Fedor seems to be standing up but the thing is, no one has the sharp skills Arlovski has on his feet plus the wrestling skills and ground skills to keep Fedor from taking him down. It’s pick your poison with Fedor as he has more then enough stand-up skills to hang with 99% of the World’s Heavyweights and the ground skills to handle probably any of them, plus the takedowns and takedown defence to control where the fight goes. Lesnar is way too green and makes too many mistakes that a true Heavyweight with Fedor’s skills will capitilise on. Mir could catch Fedor on the ground but would likely be knocked out before he got the fight there. Fedor’s next opponent looks to be Josh Barnett and I don’t give Barnett much of a chance at all. His ground game is good, but it’s not at the level where he can catch someone like Fedor. Anyone not giving this guy his props right now is a fucking moron!

Josh Barnett Sub3 (strikes) Gilbert Yvel
Sure he got the job done, but this was a seriously bad performance from Barnett. His ground game just looked sloppy, period. His punches didn’t look to be as devastating as some of the other fighters we see who get to the same positions and his submissions were slow enough for ever Gilbert Yvel to get out of. Barnett has to get back on form or improve if that’s all he’s capable of if he’s going to be fighting Fedor next.

Vitor Belfort KO1 (punches) Matt Lindland
Wow! Vitor of old comes back (for now anyway). He blitzed Lindland in the same fashion he blitzed Wanderlei Silva and Martin Eastman and Tank Abbott and the likes those years ago. Lindland was out for a while and it was good to see him leave on his feet under his own control. A knockout like that is a potential career ender especially for a fighter in his late 30′s like Lindland. Vitor though, what a way to crack into the Middleweight elite. Lindland had a lot of hype at Middleweight as one of the top dogs even though he’s been relatively inactive so this is a huge win for Vitor. Rumour has it his Affliction contract has expired and the UFC is in need of top Middleweights. I’d definately be hyped for Belfort-Anderson Silva. Vitor’s never been knocked out before, so it’ll be interesting to see how that fight would go. Unlike Patrick Cote’ who just had a punchers chance, Vitor has that plus a BJJ black belt. Even though his heart can be questioned at times, Vitor’s as dangerous a challenger as anyone out there for Anderson Silva at 185lbs.

Renato Babalu Sub2 (Anaconda Choke) Sokoudjou
Sokoudjou looked good early, but gassed out bad and Babalu is not someone you want on top of you know matter who you are. I would really like to see Babalu vs Little Nogueira now as they seem to be the top two 205lbers outside of the UFC. Babalu took some good shots but didn’t get discouraged and finished the fight with a slick choke as we’ve seen him do before. It was also good to see him let the choke go after Sokoudjou tapped.

Antonio Rogerio ‘Little’ Nogueira KO2 (knee) Vladimir Matyushenko
Matyushenko surprised everyone including Nogueira by trying to box and he didn’t look too bad. Nogueira seemed tentative when it came to answering back thinking Matyushenko was just trying to get him to open up so he could take him down. The worst thing Matyushenko did was hurt and cut Nogueira because once he did that, Nogueira opened up and things got bad for Matyushenko. He got hurt with a solid knee to the midsection and then one to the head finished him off. The fight was strange as it was a mixture of really bad and really good.

Other Results
Dan Lauzon Sub1 (Rear Naked Choke) Bobby Green
Jay Hieron TKO1 (strikes) Jason High
Paul Buentello TKO3 Kirill Sidelnikov
LC Davis UD3 Bao Quach
Alberto Rios UD3 Antonio Duarte
Brett Cooper KO2 (punch) Patrick Speight

Thoughts
I’d love for Affliction to be able to stay around because, even though its not the UFC, it’s good to get something different with quality fights on it from time to time. Even if they just put a show on 2-3 times a year when Fedor fights I don’t care. Affliction is about the only way we’ll see Fedor in legitimate fights and they’ve delivered Sylvia and Arlovski, the two best UFC Heavyweights for a period of time already. Those two fights are among the biggest Heavyweight fights in MMA history. I hope there’s a third show, but if they do close down I hope Fedor and the UFC can come to terms so he can prove to everyone (well not everyone because there’s some morons out there) that he is the best MMA Heavyweight of all-time.

Shamrock vs Tank is Finally on!

I don’t often report MMA news as I don’t have the time to cover MMA like other sites do, but some news is just that big that you can’t leave it uncovered. It’s very rare that you get news like this so I thought I’d better put something up here in case I lose readers to other more dedicated blogs that want to talk about the important issues. Sometime in April, UFC Hall of Famer meets David ‘Tank’ Abbott in a highly anticipated bout. Okay by now you’ve guessed that I’m being sarcastic and I won’t do a 100% sarcasm post so I’ll be serious now. There remains only one obstacle and it is quite a hurdle considering both guys recent form; their next opponents.

I’m not sure what organisation the fights are under (other then Ken Shamrock is meant to be the promoter), but Ken Shamrock will be featured in the Main Event of the upcoming February 13 ‘Valentine’s Eve Massacre’ show. His opponent will be 6’8, 350lb journeyman Ross Clifton. Clifton’s record stands at 6 wins and 8 losses, with all but 1 of his fights ending inside the distance. Normally I’d dismiss this as a bad bit of matchmaking, but given Shamrocks recent form and his inability to do anything with Robert ‘Buzz’ Berry, I can’t write Clifton off in this bout. Shamrock is honestly that bad these days that someone like Clifton could beat him. Shamrock will have to get Clifton on his back and if he does he’ll win in whatever manner he wants.

Tank Abbott will feature in the co-main event against Mike Bourke, an equally short and equally round opponent who should make the fight interesting as long as he doesn’t take Tank down. Rourke is a PRIDE veteran, losing by double arm bar in one of the early PRIDE bouts to ‘The Diet Butcher’ Alexander Otsuka. His record stands at 8-11-1 with all but three of his 20 fights ending inside the distance. It’s really not much of an issue whether or not Tank loses this fight because he loses most of his fights, but I think Rourke will beat him. Tank rarely trains anymore and I think Rourke will survive the initial 30 second onslaught, put him on his back and submit him.

This truly is a horrible piece of promoting. This fight (Tank vs Shamrock) has nearly come to fruition a few times. They were scheduled on the same side of the bracket at Ultimate Ultimate 96, but Shamrock pulled out with a broken hand. Also at UFC 48 this fight was looking at being a main event, but Kimo and Shamrock after Tank got choked out by Kimo at UFC 43. Still, if these old guys wanna keep fighting and embarrassing themselves, it’s probably better they do it against each other rather then against younger guys who could seriously injure them. This is a fight that I would have liked to see in the early UFC days and to be honest as disgusting as the thought of these two fighting now is, I’ll probably watch it. Afterall, I watched YAMMA Pit Fighting! I don’t want to be one of those poor souls who sees something second hand like YAMMA ring announcer Scott Ferrall.

Affliction: Day of Reckoning Predictions

For the second time in what will be a little over a week, MMA fans are treated to a matchup that was talked about for years. After the UFC put on the fight between their former Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin and PRIDES former Champion at the same weight limit Dan Henderson at their event on the weekend, Affliction returns with their long awaited ‘Day of Reckoning’ show and pits the PRIDE Heavyweight Champion against a former UFC Heavyweight Champion. WAMMA Heavyweight Champion Fedor Emelianenko will put his title on the line against Andre ‘The Pitbull’ Arlovski in yet another quality main event from Affliction. The undercard also stacks up nicely with Josh Barnett taking on MMA’s bad boy Gilbert Yvel, a very interesting middleweight fight between Matt Lindland and Vitor Belfort as well as a battle between former UFC Light Heavyweight title challenger Renato Babalu and Sokoudjou in a fight that’s sure to produce fireworks.

Fedor Emelianenko vs Andrei Arlovski
The Arlovski-Fedor fight is definately one to look out for. Back in 2005 Arlovski was the UFC’s top Heavyweight having knocked down and then submitted Tim Sylvia in under a minute (much the same way Fedor did last year) with an ankle lock at UFC 51. Fedor as well was coming off arguably the biggest win over his career, a hard fought unanimous decision win over Mirko Cro Cop back when Cro Cop was the dangerous mother fucker that he used to be. It was only natural that talk about which organisations Heavyweight champion was truly the best and even though Arlovski since suffered back-to-back losses against Sylvia at UFC 59 and 61, he’s coming into this fight with five victories over quality opposition. A decision win over Fabricio Werdum as well as knockout wins over Ben Rothwell, Jake O’Brien and Roy Nelson have Arlovski right back up the top of the Heavyweight rankings.
I really think that out of anyone, Arlovski has the best chance at beating Fedor. I personally think Arlovski would crush both Lesnar and Mir and that with his skill set he poses the biggest threat to Emelianenko. With his crisp combination punching and brutal leg kicks as well as dangerous knees from the clinch, the thing that makes me think Arlovski could hang with Fedor is the fact that he himself was a World Champion in Sambo. Now this is MMA and not Sambo, but hear me out. Fedor catches a lot of guys with submissions they haven’t seen before because where someone like Demian Maia is a world class BJJ guy which is something that just about every MMA fighter knows, Fedor’s entire ground game is based off his Sambo and his set-ups are all different. With Arlovski’s background in Sambo he might have a better chance then most at surviving on the ground as he will have seen some of these moves before.
That being said, I really think Fedor will win this fight and win it inside two rounds. Arlovski’s ground game is suspect and it showed in his recent fights with Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson. Add to the fact that Fedor’s ground and pound is on a completely different level then anyone in MMA and I think any advantage Arlovski would have that other opponents don’t have will be taken away by the fact that his ground defence is very poor and as soon as Fedor opens his guard he’s going to punch Arlovski’s head through the mat. Arlovki’s boxing could very well pose Fedor some problems, but he’ll have to capitilise early while he is fresh and be careful because Fedor has more then enough power to drop him. I think Arlovski will do well standing up early in the fight but will get hurt at some stage and end up on his back. From there Fedor will soften him up with not very soft punches and end the fight with a kimura from side mount. Arlovski definately has a chance in this fight but I feel the longer the fight goes the better Fedor’s chances get as Arlovski has always had suspect durability. Fedor on the other hand is always in great physical condition despite him ‘looking like your Uncle on the way to the beach’- Frank Trigg. Fedor Emelianenko by 2nd round submission (kimura).

Josh Barnett vs Gilbert Yvel
Prediction- Barnett by 1st round submission
Basically Yvel has zero takedown defence and Barnett’s top game is brilliant. Yvel won’t land his knockout strike and will be on his back quickly and finished off not long after that. I don’t expect this fight to go past the two minute mark.

Renato Babalu vs Sokoudjou
Prediction- Sokoudjou by 1st round knockout
Sokoudjou has made a career out of knocking out Jiu Jitsu guys. He has seriously heavy hands and lets them go with bad intentions when his opponent has limited stand-up himself. This is another fight that I think will be over quickly. I think Sokoudjou will explode and land some big right hands early and finish Babalu off.

Vitor Belfort vs Matt Lindland
Prediction- Lindland on points
I can’t pick Belfort against anyone with any sort of determination. Vitor could explode and catch ‘The Law’ early in vintage Vitor form, but I think he’ll get taken down and roughed up a bit and resort to playing guard and holding on and riding out the decision win. Lindland’s wrestling will be too big of a factor in the same way that previous Team Quest fighters Randy Couture and Dan Henderson were able to defeat Vitor. Even with Couture in his corner I don’t think he’ll have improved his mental game to the point where he won’t resort back to his survival tactics when he can’t bully his opponent the way Vitor likes to.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Prediction- Nogueira on points
Matyushenko will have some success with takedowns but I think Little Nog will control the stand-up and keep Matyushenko busy with his dangerous guard. The stand-up will be the key and while he doesn’t have a great deal of power, Little Nog has excellent technique and will pick Matyushenko apart and do enough damage to take a close but unanimous decision.

Chris Horodecki vs Dan Lauzon
Prediction- Lauzon by 2nd round knockout

Paul Buentello vs Kiril Sidelnikov
Prediction- Sidelnikov by 2nd round knockout

Jay Hieron vs Jason High
Prediction- Hieron by 1st round submission

LC Davis vs Bao Quach
Prediction- Davis by 2nd round submission

Henderson edges Franklin, Shogun KOs Coleman

Former PRIDE 183lb and 205lb Champion Dan Henderson won a narrow split decision victory over former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin. The fight took place earlier today (Sydney time) at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland. Henderson started fast, landing one of his feared overhand rights that backed Franklin into the cage in the early moments of the fight. Using his Olympic Greco Roman skills, Henderson scored a takedown and started to land punches from inside Franklins guard. Franklin eventually worked his way back to his feet where he had some success using left body kicks on Henderson, however Henderson’s early work was enough to take the round on my card.

Round two started the same as round three ended, with Franklin controlling the fight standing up but doing little damage to the former two-time Olympian. Midway through the round Henderson again got a grip on Franklin and tripped him to the mat where he worked from inside the former UFC champions guard. Franklin attempted a triangle but Henderson was playing it safe and ended the round after having been on top for the last half of the 2nd frame. With a 20-18 lead on my card, Henderson again scored a takedown early in the 3rd, but Franklin managed to escape and landed several punches to Henderson while he was turtled up. They worked their way back to their feet where Franklin again got the better of a tiring Henderson. With 40 seconds remaining, Henderson pawed with his left hand and poked Franklin in the eye. Franklin was given time to recover and the fight finished on the feet with Franklin taking the only real clear round of the fight.

The judges scored the bout 29-28 Henderson, 30-27 Franklin and 29-28 for Henderson giving him the split decision victory. I scored the bout 29-28 for Henderson with him winning the first two rounds and Franklin winning the third. With the win, Henderson likely earns himself a spot coaching the USA team on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter which will pit a team from the USA and a team from the UK. His rival coach will be British MMA star Michael Bisping and the two will likely meet later in the year. The winner of that fight will probably be condsidered the number one contender for Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title.

In the co feature of the card, PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua made a successful return to the Octagon by gaining revenge for the only loss of his PRIDE career against UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman. Rua suffered a broken arm as a result of a takedown during the fight at PRIDE 31: Unbreakable 49 seconds into the fight. Despite Coleman scoring numerous takedowns during the fight, Shogun was the fighter doing the damage in round one with vicious leg kicks and right hands to the face. Coleman looked to be tired at the end of the first round but fought valiantly in the second round again taking Shogun down a few times. Each time Shogun was able to escape and land with clean shots as Coleman couldn’t hold his hands above his waist. With both guys exhaused and the fight becoming painful to watch, Coleman took Shogun down again in the third round and looked like causing a massive upset. Shogun worked his way to his feet and landed what was ruled as an illegal knee to the head while Coleman was on his knees (replays showed the knee clearly landing to the body). With both guys again standing up, Shogun unleashed a flurry of punches that put Coleman down again and the referee stopped the fight. With the win, Shogun will meet Chuck Liddell at UFC 97.

In other action former PRIDE contender Denis Kang completely dominated Alan Belcher during the first round only to get caught in a deep guillotine choke midway through the 2nd round. With the submission, Belcher earned submission of the night honours. Rousimar Palhares grinded out a unanimous decision victory over a surprisingly game Jeremy Horn. Despite taking a beating in the first round, Horn was able to get on top in the 2nd and even had the Jiu Jitsu expert mounted for a period, however Palhares better top game and wrestling earned him the shutout decision win. In what won fight of the night, Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle went to war, trading hands and shins for the full three minutes of the fight. The fight was very close with neither fighter wanting to take it to the ground, but Davis sealed the decision win with a dominant round three. Both guys expressed interest in a rematch later in the year.

Preliminary Results
John Hathaway d. Thomas Egan by TKO at 4:36 of Round one (elbows)
Martin Kampmann d. Alexandre Barros by TKO at 3:07 of Round two (punches from back mount)
Eric Scaher d. Antonio Mendes by TKO at 3:34 of Round one (punches from mount)
Thomas Drwal d. Ivan Serati by TKO at 2:02 of Round one (ground and pound)
Dennis Siver d. Nate Mohr by KO at 3:47 of Round three (spinning back kick)

UFC 93 Predictions

The first event of the combat sports calender takes place this weekend in Ireland with UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson. As the name suggests, the main event is an excellent fight between former UFC Middleweight Champion Rick Franklin and former PRIDE Welterweight (183lbs) and Middleweight (205lbs) Champion Dan Henderson. The winner is rumoured to be coaching the USA team in the upcoming Ultimate Fighter series ‘TUF9: USA vs UK.’ Also appearing on the card is the return of UFC Hall of Famer and former UFC Heavyweight Champion and PRIDE 2000 Open Weight Grand Prix Champion Mark ‘the Hammer’ Coleman who will take on PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix winner Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua in a Light Heavyweight battle. There’s two other decent battles on the main card with PRIDE star Denis Kang making his Octagon debut against Alan Belcher and a fight between two of th UFC’s toughest customers in Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle. Considering the talent on the last two UFC PPV cards and the talent that will be on show at UFC 94, this card is an excellent card with two of the UFC’s best fighters without a title battling it out in what should be a very close affair.

Main Card
Rich Franklin vs Dan Henderson
Prediction- Franklin on points
This is a very tough fight to call. Considering this fight is being fought at 205lbs where Henderson has had more success in the past (even though Franklin is undefeated at this weight class), it makes a lot of things very interesting. Both of these guys are very well-rounded and evenly matched. Henderson obviously has the edge in wrestling considering he’s a two time Olympic Greco Roman Wrestler, but even though Henderson has been a Champion at 205lbs, I think Franklin is the bigger man. Franklin also is the better technical striker out of the two although I think Henderson has the power advantage in this fight. Henderson also has an iron chin which will mean that if Franklin is to win, it’ll likely be over three hard fought rounds.
In saying that though, I’m picking Franklin to win this fight by close decision. I think Henderson on his best night is just a bit better then Franklin in most areas of the game with his power balancing out Franklins accuracy and speed, but the big thing that Franklin has over Henderson is consistency. Henderson has a terrible habbit of fighting at about 60-80% of his capacities and with his advanced age (okay, 37 isn’t old old, but it’s showing with Henderson), I think Franklin may just outwork him. Franklin is also the better tactical fighter out of the two as Henderson often puts himself in bad spots that he doesn’t need to go to (ie pulling guard against Little Nogueira in their PRIDE fight and then getting arm-barred about 30 seconds later). In his last fight against Rousimar Palhares, Henderson didn’t look himself and it may be because of the weight cut, but I’m thinking Henderson is getting on a bit and unless he fights at 90-100% of his capabilities he’ll struggle against Franklin who seems to be enjoying fighting again after Silva beat him down in the rematch. I’ll say it now though, I won’t be in the least bit surprised if Henderson wins this one by brutal knockout. His one-punch knockout power is deadly and Franklin has shown that he is suspect to a right hand straight down the middle. The safe pick in this fight though is with the more consistent Rich Franklin.

Mark Coleman vs Mauricio Shogun
Prediction- Shogun by 2nd round knockout
Is it just me who thinks that it’s mean making a former 250lb fighter cut down to 205lbs for the first time in his 40s? Any stamina problems Coleman has had in his career (the only time he hasn’t had stamina problems was the PRIDE 2000 GP and he didn’t fight anyone who was going to exploit them that night) will be quadrupled by the fact that he has to dehydrate and rehydrate before the fight. Add that to the fact that this fight is overseas so he’s going to have to adjust to the timezone as well and I really think Coleman’s gas tank will be lucky to last two minutes.
So basically Coleman needs to go out, get a takedown (there’s no way in hell he KO’s Shogun standing up), hope that breaks his arm again and if it doesn’t he has to hope he can either get a neck crank on a world class BJJ guy or stop him with one of his right hand punches before his gas tank runs out two minutes in. I think Coleman will get his takedown because Shogun hasn’t got much in the way of takedown defence but he’ll eventually work his way back to his feet (he might have to do it two-three times but he’ll do it every time) and each time he gets back to his feet he’ll do a bit more damage. About four minutes in Coleman will have his hands on his knees the way he always does when he gasses and Shogun will start tearing him apart eventually TKOing him in the 2nd round.

Alan Belcher vs Denis Kang
Prediction- Belcher on points
I’m not too sure what to make of Kang. The guy had some serious skills towards the end of PRIDE, coming 2nd in the 2006 Welterweight Grand Prix. Since then though he’s lost two fights inside the distance (one to Gegard Mousasi in the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix in which he was favourite to win the whole thing). I think a combination of bad form and ‘Octagon Jitters’ will take place here and Belcher has looked good striking against guys with limited stand-up like Kang. I think Belcher keeps the fight standing and takes a clear-cut unanimous decision.

Marcus Davis vs Chris Lytle
Prediction- Davis on points
Excellent fight. This is the fight I’m looking forward to the most after Franklin-Henderson. This should be a war with both guys favouring the stand-up mode although both of them have good skills on the ground. I think Lytle should win this fight if he puts Davis on his back, but he’ll want to stand and trade and Davis has the better hands. I predict this fight to be fight of the night and Davis to win by split decision in the early candidate for fight of the year.

Jeremy Horn vs Rousimar Palhares
Prediction- Palhares by 1st round submission
It puzzles me how someone like Travis Lutter can be cut from his contract after losing to Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin yet Jeremy Horn can come in with absolutely no interest in fighting and get submitted every time and still be allowed back for more. I like Horn (and I don’t like Lutter I’ll point out) and I hope he pulls off the upset, but Palhares will have too much for him on the ground. I expect he’ll catch Horn in either a guillotine choke or a triangle choke during a scramble. Probably submission of the night.

Preliinary Card
Alexandre Barros vs Martin Kampmann
Prediction- Kampmann on points
I’ve been told that Barros is a tough son of a bitch and I think that combined with Kampmann’s first fight at the new weight class (170lbs) will allow Barros to last the distance, but he won’t be in the fight.

Antonio Mendes vs Eric Schafer
Prediction- Mendes by 2nd round knockout
This fight also has a chance at getting fight of the night. I don’t remember Mendes’ fight with Thiago Silva, but I seem to recall that he has no ground game and excellent kickboxing. Schafer on the other hand has an excellent ground game but limited striking and no stamina. I think Mendes will ride out the storm on the ground and then tear Schafer apart with some deadly combinations.

Tomasz Drwal vs Ivan Serati
Prediction-Drwal by first round knockout
This fight will be decided on the ground after Drwal gets a takedown and shows Serati’s limited game off his back. Ground and Pound stoppage a few minutes into the first round.

Nate Mohr vs Denis Siver
Prediction- Mohr by third round knockout
Both of these guys seem to be on the wrong side of the highlight reels. Both guys have limited ground games, but I think Mohr’s advantage in wrestling will allow him to exploit Siver’s and eventually stop him with punches from side mount after a back and forth fight.

Thomas Egan vs John Hathaway
Prediction- Hathaway by 2nd round knockout