UFC 110 Picks

UFC 110 in Australia takes place tomorrow and with the excitement of attending my first UFC event I’ve left it a bit late to post my picks up. With nothing better to do to kill the remaining 12 or so hours before the first preliminary fight, here’s my picks for tomorrows event:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Pick- Nogueira by 2nd round submission
While I agree that Velasquez is probably the safe pick in this fight, I don’t see any way he can win this fight inside the distance and against a finisher and a survivor like Nogueira that is dangerous. As good as Velasquez is, his game revolves around his wrestling and his explosiveness. His power has appeared overrated in his last three fights with an inability to finish Cheick Kongo despite the numerous advantageous positions and strikes he landed, a controversial stoppage against Ben Rothwell where he again landed numerous strikes that were taken as comfortably as one could take numerous strikes from a 230lb Mexican fighter and a one sided beatdown that went way longer then it should have against Denis Stojnic. Velasquez’s striking is technically below average and his lack of positional knowledge on the ground could get him into trouble against a Jiu Jitsu master like Nogueira.

Nogueira has two big advantages in this fight; boxing and jiu jitsu. Velasquez has proven he can take a punch from a top level MMA striker in the fight with Cheick Kongo, but if he chooses to keep the fight on the feet Nogueira will outbox him en route to a unanimous decision win. If Velasquez decides to use his wrestling to take the fight to the floor, he won’t gain the superior positioning against Nogueira that he has enjoyed in previous fights. I have no doubt that Nogueira could sweep Velasquez as he has swept plenty of good fighters in the past who have solid top games (most notably Fedor Emelianenko although it did him little good). While Nogueira’s pure jiu jitsu isn’t on the absolute elite level, his game is among the best for MMA as he works off his opponents strikes. I think Velasquez will probably be ahead on points early in the fight, but will likely fall victim to one of Nogueira’s chokes during a scramble sometime during the middle of the fight.

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping
Prediction- Silva by 1st round knockout
I honestly think that Bisping is scared of Silva. He’s trying to put on a brave front, but he seems to be reacting to whatever Wanderlei does. At the weigh in he seemed to be comfortable until he had to stare Wanderlei down. This is where Wanderlei is at his best, when he has an opponent who he can intimidate. Bisping’s only real shot in this fight is if Wanderlei’s weight cut severely effects him (he looks a hell of a lot better then he did when he fought Franklin so I assume he’s done it better this time) and then he’d have to employ a hit and run style and win on points. I think Wanderlei’s almost reckless style will overwhelm Bisping and he’ll be able to utilise his clinch game and overall just punish ‘The Count’ until he can’t take anymore. Silva by brutal, one sided knockout.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropolous
Prediction- Stevenson on points
I think the UFC are banking on a big win by George so they can use him as they used Bisping to build shows around him in Australia. I think they will be spoilt as Stevenson’s top game will be a bit too much at this stage of Georges career. If George can keep the fight standing, he’ll punish ‘Daddy’ as Stevenson’s stand-up has always been poor, but Stevenson is a solid wrestler and I believe he’ll win a unanimous, but highly competitive decision while utilising his top game.

Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
Prediction- Jardine on points
Bader is still completing his game and one of the areas he lacks is in the stand-up. Jardine is coming off a big knockout loss and back to back losses, but with the quality wrestlers he has to train with I think he’ll be well prepared for Bader’s takedowns. Bader on the other hand has no one to replicate Jardine’s unorthodox (thats a kind way of putting it) striking style and I think once Jardine gets into a rhythm, Bader will have a hard time getting anything going against him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh
Prediction- Cro Cop by 1st round knockout (hopefully a head kick)
Well most people were disappointed when Ben Rothwell pulled out on Friday, but I sort of wasn’t. Being the old school PRIDE fan that I am I’m sort of hoping to see Nogueira pull of a come from behind submission win, Wanderlei destroy someone and Cro Cop win by head kick knockout. He has a much better chance of knocking out Perosh then he did Rothwell (I’d have picked Rothwell in their fight). Perosh is a UFC veteran, having dropped fights to Jeff Monson and Critian Wellisch and he is a solid ground fighter having competed in Abu Dhabi, but he has been the victim of some knockouts in the past (one of them to James Te-Huna, who fights on the prelims) and I expect nothing different from him here.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Bonnar on points
Bonnar’s a handful when he’s on his game and I think he’ll be on his game tomorrow. It’s a pickem fight I feel and I think he’s due to pull one out.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Foster
Prediction- Foster on points
This fight will be fight of the night. These two live for the war and I expect nothing less. Foster is the less battle hardened of the two, but he brings more physical tools to the fight and thats where I think he wins it.

CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
Prediction- Dollaway on points
It’s been a long wait for the return of Goran, almost two years and I think Dollaway is too much too soon after such a long lay off. Goran looked good when he defeated Gouveia, but I think Dollaway will be hungry for a big win and will grind out a tough decision.

James Te-Huna vs Igor Pokrajac
Prediction- Igor by 1st round submission
I’m not holding out much hope for the Kiwi kickboxer. His ground game is pretty average and Igor is an experienced wrestler and once it hits the ground Te-Huna will be a fish out of water.

UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun; why Shogun shouldn’t be ruled out

UFC 104 is now just a few hours away and despite any lack of depth to the card, the main event gives an almost boxing-like feel to the card with the magnitude of the fight. I write this article mainly because of the lack of a chance people seem to be giving Shogun to win. Having seen a lot of Shogun’s MMA career, I know for a fact that he stands an excellent chance and while I think he’ll have to fight a near perfect fight to win this fight, I honestly think he will win it. No one is invincible and that includes Lyoto Machida and I feel style wise that Shogun has the best chance to win this fight and here’s why:

Muay Thai
Shogun brings something that is yet to be seen by Machida in his MMA career in terms of Shogun’s excellent Thai Boxing skills. Shogun is the stereotypical Muay Thai fighter in that his knees and kicks are far better then his hands (don’t let the Liddell left hook KO fool you, that was set up with the numerous leg kicks he had landed earlier in the round). Leg kicks, if properly utilised, will be a big factor in this fight for the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix champion as Machida relies heavily on his foot speed to work the unorthodox angles that he uses to avoid strikes. If Shogun finds a home for a few well placed low kicks early in the fight, Machida’s foot speed should slow allowing for Shogun to work his top level clinch game and takedowns as well as being able to better capitilise on Machida’s hands down approach. With his legs unable to move him out of range at the speed he likes, fighting with his hands down will be a dangerous approach and something that history in combat sports has told us is that the fighters with the better defensive game are usually over compensating for a weaker chin.

Foot Speed
Machida’s uncanny agility for a man of his size is what has given everyone he’s faced problems in their fights. Shogun’s foot speed was also legendary back in his PRIDE days where he could trap even the most fleet footed opponents up against the ropes. The difference here is the size of the UFC Octagon and the PRIDE ring aren’t even comparable. However, a recent quote from Shogun says that he is now comfortable with the Octagon size and has altered his game to adjust to the larger fighting surface. I think with Shogun’s mobility he’ll be able to cut the distance quicker then anyone Machida has faced and land those leg kicks or get that clinch where he can do damage to Machida.

Conditioning/Durability
Machida is used to fighting at the pace he likes to fight at. I really think he has to get Shogun out of there in the first two or three rounds if he wants to win this fight because of the pace Shogun sets. Shogun set a world class pace in his glory days in PRIDE and either he’s going to get caught early or his pace will wear on Machida. Apart from the odd hiccup in his fights, Machida has fought his entire career at the pace he wants to and has never been through a long war into the late rounds. Shogun sinks opponents with the pace he sets as he is relentless and as soon as they slow down a little bit he becomes overwhelming. With so many questions being asked about his conditioning due to the Coleman and Griffin fights, the question people should also be asking is what happens if Shogun is in shape (which considering the magnitude of the fight is the more likely scenario) and he gets Machida into a dog fight that lasts past the 2nd or 3rd round? Shogun has been into the late rounds in tough fights, Machida hasn’t. Can Machida handle the pace if he’s actually pushed? Shogun also has a solid chin and while Machida is an excellent puncher, I think he’ll have to batter the former Chute Boxe member in order to finish him.

Ground Game
Most noted for his Muay Thai game, people who watched Shogun in his PRIDE days know that the best aspect of his game is probably his ground game. Shogun’s top game is as dangerous as anyone due to his unorthodox ways of striking from the guard as well as his escapes from the bottom (something UFC fans would have seen against both Coleman and Griffin) and his submissions, in particular his leg locks, are deadly. Should this fight hit the ground you’d have to give Shogun a huge advantage. While Machida is a black belt himself and has won by submission, I really don’t think his ground game is at the level of Shoguns and considering the fight is unlikely to hit the ground unless Shogun has enforced his game on Machida somewhat. In that case I think a tired Machida will struggle to deal with a fired up Shogun on top of him.

In saying that…..
There’s a lot that has to go right for Shogun to win this fight. Machida’s hands are far superior and he’ll be the crisper fighter early on in this fight. Plus we really don’t know how good Shogun is off the back of a knockout win over a (seemingly) over the hill Chuck Liddell (to be fair to Liddell, all of his KO losses have come to guys who have gone on to be UFC champions). The last two times Shogun has been into the late rounds he has struggled with his fitness and it even cost him in his fight with Forrest Griffin. But with this being the biggest fight of Shogun’s career, you have to assume it will be the best Shogun we’ve seen and for those of you who have seen what he was capable of in his 2005 run to win the PRIDE Grand Prix you’d all know that this guy is a serious threat. All these so called experts on some of the sites have written Shogun off because Machida is the more hyped fighter of the moment and has looked unbeatable and have even gone to the extremes to say this is a meaningless title defence. To them I say, do your homework, learn the history of the sport and don’t go jumping on every bandwagon that comes along. As a long-time Shogun fan, I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Mauricio Shogun will win by 4th round TKO after kicking Machida’s legs out early and imposing his deadly clinch and top game on him in the later rounds.

UFC 100: Lesnar vs Mir II announced

Over the last few days the UFC has officially announced the UFC 100 card that’s had everyone talking and it’s as good as people are expecting. While there’s one or two fights that are yet to be confirmed, every fight on the main card has major implications for the division that it’s in and some of the preliminaries would easily be main card fights on a different card. The main two fights on the card see probably the two most anticipated championship fights of the year in the UFC. The card, ‘UFC 100: Lesnar vs Mir 2′ takes place July 11th in Las Vegas.

Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will make the first defence of the title he took from Randy Couture last November against UFC interim champion Frank Mir. The fight is a rematch of Lesnar’s UFC debut at UFC 81 last year in which Lesnar started fast and landed some hard shots to Mir’s face on the ground before being caught in a kneebar from the former UFC champion. Mir was then locked in to fight interim champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira while Randy Couture was fighting the UFC in court with the two coaching on the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Then with Couture’s comeback and the two coaches already set to do battle, Lesnar off the back of his domination over Heath Herring got first crack at Couture and took the title. Mir then dramatically became the first man to finish Nogueira with a 2nd round knockout leading to the mega fight. (There is that man from Russia named Fedor Emelianenko who would probably beat both guys on the same night, but I won’t mention him as this is a UFC post and it wouldn’t be appropriate now would it?)

The co main event is arguably the most anticipated fight of the year now that St Pierre vs Penn is out of the way. Thiago Alves last year ran through Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck to make himself the clearest contender for St Pierre’s title that he won back from Matt Serra last April. St Pierre has defended the championship twice now with a decision win over Jon Fitch and a 4th round TKO of BJ Penn. It’s always interesting when you get a contender who has proven himself to be head and shoulders above the rest of the division up against an outstanding champion. You’ve had fights like Hughes-Trigg II, Hughes-St Pierre II, Couture vs Liddell (any fight) and if you want to talk PRIDE there’s Nogueira vs Fedor, Fedor vs Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva vs Rampage II. In all of those fights the contender for the belt had dominated all of the other contenders in the past to make themselves the clearest possible challenger for the title and all of those fights were memorable.

Also on the main card you have TUF 9 coaches Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson doing battle for what will probably be a shot at UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Then there’s another Middleweight matchup between two of the top contenders in the division with new signing Yoshihiro Akiyama who has wins over the likes of Denis Kang and Melvin Manhoef taking on Alan Belcher. The main card is likely to be filled out with the Paulo Thiago-Jon Fitch Welterweight scrap but there’s also UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman (I’m sorry, everytime I go to write his name I think of the way Mauro Rinallo used to always announce him as ‘Mark The Hammer Coleman’ and it just ends up typing itself) fighting Stephan Bonnar and Jim Miller vs Mac Danzig that could take the last spot on the main card. Check the MMA schedule link at the top of the page for the full card.

UFC 94: Breaking Down BJ Penn vs Georges St Pierre

This fight is quite probably the biggest in UFC history. It’s quite possibly the biggest and most significant in MMA history. It’s not like the PRIDE vs UFC days where you only had the best fighters in the organisation fighting each other, now you have the best at 155lbs vs the best at 170lbs. It’s a first in the sport that the absolute best in the world in one weight class has moved up to fight the absolute best in the world at another weight class. While Dana White compares this fight to Hagler-Hearns I really think he needs a boxing history lesson. While that fight proved to be extremely exciting, this is more like the first fight between Roberto Duran, arguably the greatest lightweight of all-time, and Sugar Ray Leonard, the young champion who was looking for the fights that would have him ranked alongside the other Sugar Ray.

In that fight the unchallenged lightweight champion moved up and fought the new but extremely hyped Welterweight champion in what was a stacked division. Duran and Penn both have their similarities as they are extremely talented fighters but often have trouble getting into the shape they needed to be in to make the most of it. Duran suffered a loss early in his career against Esteban De Jesus, a loss he later avenged twice in extremely dominant fashion. Duran’s De Jesus is like BJ Penn’s Jens Pulver. Both fighters also proved that their skill set was so great that they could dominate much larger fighters. With Duran’s frame being suited to 135lbs, he won World titles in four weight classes all the way up to 160lbs. Penn has already won the UFC Welterweight title and has given highly ranked Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto Machida his toughest fight to date. Leonard and St Pierre don’t have as many similarities but there are some. Leonard at that stage of his career was looking to fight the real big names in boxing with the likes of Tonny Hearns, Marvin Hagler and Duran around him. St Pierre is in the same boat looking to sit on the peak with the likes of Anderson Silva and Fedor Emelianenko. Around him he has his own Hearns in Thiago Alves, a young dangerous contender, his own Marvin Hagler in Anderson Silva, the dominant, unmatched Middleweight champion and of course his Duran in Penn.

Even though the Hagler vs Hearns fight has a lot of hype behind it as far as being a great fight, the Duran vs Leonard fight in Montreal in 1979 is a much better fit for this fight. Hagler vs Hearns was two and a half rounds of mayhem inside the ring with both guys trying to take each others heads off. Duran and Leonard fought a 15 round tactical war with Duran forcing Leonard to fight him on the inside where he was at his best and Leonard trading punches with ‘Hands of Stone.’ This fight has all the makings of a five round tactical war. Both fighters are extremely well rounded and could win the fight from a number of situations. Both guys have excellent stand-up and have won fights via strikes before. St Pierre arguably has the best takedowns in MMA and BJ Penn has arguably the best takedown defence in MMA. Penn’s flexibility is almost unmatched and on his back he’ll likely prove too difficult for St Pierre to gain a dominanty position against or even half guard where he delivered so much damage to Matt Serra in their rematch last year. St Pierre’s wrestling will likely prove too much for Penn to be able to get mount or back control where his finishing ability in MMA is almost second to none. This really is a very evenly matched fight between two MMA masters.

There are two big factors in this fight; St Pierre’s chin and BJ Penns cardio. While St Pierre’s chin has only failed him once, Penn’s cardio is maybe the biggest factor in every one of his losses. In a five round fight with someone who can force the action as much as St Pierre I think this will be the deciding factor. Despite Penn cutting St Pierre’s face up in the first round of their first fight, St Pierre gave as good as he got in the first round of that fight. It really is my opinion that the fight should have been scored 30-27 for St Pierre before it was scored for Penn. Georges dominated the 2nd and 3rd round of that fight scoring heavy takedowns and working his top control. While I think Penn is a different animal now that he is training properly, I think if this fight reaches rounds three and four that St Pierre is going to take over. BJ Penn is yet to prove himself in a war or in a fight that isn’t going his way. Every one of his big wins have been in one sided fashion; Matt Hughes (first round submission), Jens Pulver (2nd round submission), Sean Sherk (one sided third round knockout); all of them Penn was in total control from start to finish. If St Pierre is getting his shots in and getting takedowns early in the fight, I think he’ll break Penn not so much mentally but definately physically. The fact that St Pierre probably fights at 180-185lbs and Penn fights at 170lbs also is a big factor as Penn has never faced someone big and athletic as St Pierre. As far as the improvement of both guys go since their first fight, I think St Pierre has improved more then Penn especially after his loss to Matt Serra.

Prediction
I’m picking St Pierre to TKO Penn in the 5th round. I think the first three rounds will be the three best rounds of MMA skill ever displayed. It will be back and forth with both guys showing high level kickboxing and excellent clinch fighting with the fight hitting the mat on occasion in St Pierre’s favour. However, sometime in the 3rd round I think St Pierre will get Penn in a bad spot and it’ll be all down hill from there. He’ll land some heavy punches or a head kick or some unanswered punches on the ground and then Penn’s cardio will fail him and St Pierre will turn up his game. St Pierre will dominate Penn with heavy punches from on top in the 4th round before finishing him in the 5th round with ground and pound. I think this will truly be an epic battle between two of the best pound for pound fighters in the world and while it may not be as electric as Forrest Griffin vs Stephan Bonnar or Thomas Hearns vs Marvin Hagler, that doesn’t mean it won’t be as good to watch. This fight on paper doesn’t look to be a bar room brawl style fight like those two matches, but it’ll go down in MMA history as an epic battle between two of the best fighters of all-time. Georges St Pierre by 5th round TKO.

Fedor KOs Arlovski at Day of Reckoning

Fedor Emelianenko KO1 (punch) Andre Arlovski
Fedor Emelianenko won again over another top ranked opponent, knocking Andrei Arlovski out in the first round of their fight for Fedor’s WAMMA Heavyweight title. Arlovski was getting the better of the fight, using a solid one-two combination as well as hard leg kicks and front kicks which kept the former PRIDE Heavyweight Champion off balance throughout the contest. Fedor looked to be strung on a couple of occasions by Arlovski’s power but recovered quickly and fought back. Arlovski was also showing good takedown defence, avoiding going to the mat when the Sambo expert got a hold of him.
However as many other fighters have found, Fedor’s well rounded skills and patience proved Arlovski’s undoing and the one time Arlovski made a mistake Fedor ended the fight suddenly. Arlovski backed Fedor into a corner with a front kick and a right hand and then jumped in with a flying knee only to be caught in mid-air by a short overhand right and knocked unconscious. In a fight that lasted 3 minutes 14 seconds, Arlovski controlled probably 3:10 of that time and yet those few seconds is all that Fedor needed to end matters.
While Fedor did look human in this fight, Arlovski is one of the top fighters in the World and would likely destroy every Heavyweight in the UFC. The way to beating Fedor seems to be standing up but the thing is, no one has the sharp skills Arlovski has on his feet plus the wrestling skills and ground skills to keep Fedor from taking him down. It’s pick your poison with Fedor as he has more then enough stand-up skills to hang with 99% of the World’s Heavyweights and the ground skills to handle probably any of them, plus the takedowns and takedown defence to control where the fight goes. Lesnar is way too green and makes too many mistakes that a true Heavyweight with Fedor’s skills will capitilise on. Mir could catch Fedor on the ground but would likely be knocked out before he got the fight there. Fedor’s next opponent looks to be Josh Barnett and I don’t give Barnett much of a chance at all. His ground game is good, but it’s not at the level where he can catch someone like Fedor. Anyone not giving this guy his props right now is a fucking moron!

Josh Barnett Sub3 (strikes) Gilbert Yvel
Sure he got the job done, but this was a seriously bad performance from Barnett. His ground game just looked sloppy, period. His punches didn’t look to be as devastating as some of the other fighters we see who get to the same positions and his submissions were slow enough for ever Gilbert Yvel to get out of. Barnett has to get back on form or improve if that’s all he’s capable of if he’s going to be fighting Fedor next.

Vitor Belfort KO1 (punches) Matt Lindland
Wow! Vitor of old comes back (for now anyway). He blitzed Lindland in the same fashion he blitzed Wanderlei Silva and Martin Eastman and Tank Abbott and the likes those years ago. Lindland was out for a while and it was good to see him leave on his feet under his own control. A knockout like that is a potential career ender especially for a fighter in his late 30′s like Lindland. Vitor though, what a way to crack into the Middleweight elite. Lindland had a lot of hype at Middleweight as one of the top dogs even though he’s been relatively inactive so this is a huge win for Vitor. Rumour has it his Affliction contract has expired and the UFC is in need of top Middleweights. I’d definately be hyped for Belfort-Anderson Silva. Vitor’s never been knocked out before, so it’ll be interesting to see how that fight would go. Unlike Patrick Cote’ who just had a punchers chance, Vitor has that plus a BJJ black belt. Even though his heart can be questioned at times, Vitor’s as dangerous a challenger as anyone out there for Anderson Silva at 185lbs.

Renato Babalu Sub2 (Anaconda Choke) Sokoudjou
Sokoudjou looked good early, but gassed out bad and Babalu is not someone you want on top of you know matter who you are. I would really like to see Babalu vs Little Nogueira now as they seem to be the top two 205lbers outside of the UFC. Babalu took some good shots but didn’t get discouraged and finished the fight with a slick choke as we’ve seen him do before. It was also good to see him let the choke go after Sokoudjou tapped.

Antonio Rogerio ‘Little’ Nogueira KO2 (knee) Vladimir Matyushenko
Matyushenko surprised everyone including Nogueira by trying to box and he didn’t look too bad. Nogueira seemed tentative when it came to answering back thinking Matyushenko was just trying to get him to open up so he could take him down. The worst thing Matyushenko did was hurt and cut Nogueira because once he did that, Nogueira opened up and things got bad for Matyushenko. He got hurt with a solid knee to the midsection and then one to the head finished him off. The fight was strange as it was a mixture of really bad and really good.

Other Results
Dan Lauzon Sub1 (Rear Naked Choke) Bobby Green
Jay Hieron TKO1 (strikes) Jason High
Paul Buentello TKO3 Kirill Sidelnikov
LC Davis UD3 Bao Quach
Alberto Rios UD3 Antonio Duarte
Brett Cooper KO2 (punch) Patrick Speight

Thoughts
I’d love for Affliction to be able to stay around because, even though its not the UFC, it’s good to get something different with quality fights on it from time to time. Even if they just put a show on 2-3 times a year when Fedor fights I don’t care. Affliction is about the only way we’ll see Fedor in legitimate fights and they’ve delivered Sylvia and Arlovski, the two best UFC Heavyweights for a period of time already. Those two fights are among the biggest Heavyweight fights in MMA history. I hope there’s a third show, but if they do close down I hope Fedor and the UFC can come to terms so he can prove to everyone (well not everyone because there’s some morons out there) that he is the best MMA Heavyweight of all-time.

Henderson edges Franklin, Shogun KOs Coleman

Former PRIDE 183lb and 205lb Champion Dan Henderson won a narrow split decision victory over former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin. The fight took place earlier today (Sydney time) at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland. Henderson started fast, landing one of his feared overhand rights that backed Franklin into the cage in the early moments of the fight. Using his Olympic Greco Roman skills, Henderson scored a takedown and started to land punches from inside Franklins guard. Franklin eventually worked his way back to his feet where he had some success using left body kicks on Henderson, however Henderson’s early work was enough to take the round on my card.

Round two started the same as round three ended, with Franklin controlling the fight standing up but doing little damage to the former two-time Olympian. Midway through the round Henderson again got a grip on Franklin and tripped him to the mat where he worked from inside the former UFC champions guard. Franklin attempted a triangle but Henderson was playing it safe and ended the round after having been on top for the last half of the 2nd frame. With a 20-18 lead on my card, Henderson again scored a takedown early in the 3rd, but Franklin managed to escape and landed several punches to Henderson while he was turtled up. They worked their way back to their feet where Franklin again got the better of a tiring Henderson. With 40 seconds remaining, Henderson pawed with his left hand and poked Franklin in the eye. Franklin was given time to recover and the fight finished on the feet with Franklin taking the only real clear round of the fight.

The judges scored the bout 29-28 Henderson, 30-27 Franklin and 29-28 for Henderson giving him the split decision victory. I scored the bout 29-28 for Henderson with him winning the first two rounds and Franklin winning the third. With the win, Henderson likely earns himself a spot coaching the USA team on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter which will pit a team from the USA and a team from the UK. His rival coach will be British MMA star Michael Bisping and the two will likely meet later in the year. The winner of that fight will probably be condsidered the number one contender for Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title.

In the co feature of the card, PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua made a successful return to the Octagon by gaining revenge for the only loss of his PRIDE career against UFC Hall of Famer Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman. Rua suffered a broken arm as a result of a takedown during the fight at PRIDE 31: Unbreakable 49 seconds into the fight. Despite Coleman scoring numerous takedowns during the fight, Shogun was the fighter doing the damage in round one with vicious leg kicks and right hands to the face. Coleman looked to be tired at the end of the first round but fought valiantly in the second round again taking Shogun down a few times. Each time Shogun was able to escape and land with clean shots as Coleman couldn’t hold his hands above his waist. With both guys exhaused and the fight becoming painful to watch, Coleman took Shogun down again in the third round and looked like causing a massive upset. Shogun worked his way to his feet and landed what was ruled as an illegal knee to the head while Coleman was on his knees (replays showed the knee clearly landing to the body). With both guys again standing up, Shogun unleashed a flurry of punches that put Coleman down again and the referee stopped the fight. With the win, Shogun will meet Chuck Liddell at UFC 97.

In other action former PRIDE contender Denis Kang completely dominated Alan Belcher during the first round only to get caught in a deep guillotine choke midway through the 2nd round. With the submission, Belcher earned submission of the night honours. Rousimar Palhares grinded out a unanimous decision victory over a surprisingly game Jeremy Horn. Despite taking a beating in the first round, Horn was able to get on top in the 2nd and even had the Jiu Jitsu expert mounted for a period, however Palhares better top game and wrestling earned him the shutout decision win. In what won fight of the night, Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle went to war, trading hands and shins for the full three minutes of the fight. The fight was very close with neither fighter wanting to take it to the ground, but Davis sealed the decision win with a dominant round three. Both guys expressed interest in a rematch later in the year.

Preliminary Results
John Hathaway d. Thomas Egan by TKO at 4:36 of Round one (elbows)
Martin Kampmann d. Alexandre Barros by TKO at 3:07 of Round two (punches from back mount)
Eric Scaher d. Antonio Mendes by TKO at 3:34 of Round one (punches from mount)
Thomas Drwal d. Ivan Serati by TKO at 2:02 of Round one (ground and pound)
Dennis Siver d. Nate Mohr by KO at 3:47 of Round three (spinning back kick)

Randy Couture returning to the UFC?

A whole bunch of MMA sites are reporting that UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture will return to the UFC under a new contract to face Brock Lesnar at UFC 91 in the main event and then face Fedor Emelianenko under a UFC/M-1 Global co promoted event on Super Bowl weekend. I’m not going to go into too much detail on anything because I don’t really know whats going on with it right now, but considering BJ Penn vs St-Pierre is down for Super Bowl weekend already, we could have the two biggest fights in MMA history on the one card! I doubt very much that will happen, but that was one of the first things that came to my mind when I read this.

Couture vs Lesnar is an interesting fight. I have no doubt Couture will beat him. I really doubt Lesnar will be able to take Couture down. Couture is a great wrestler and has been training in MMA for a lot longer. He knows what works in MMA wrestling wise and what doesn’t. Lesnar just dumps people on theit back and tries to beat them up. Not to mention that with Couture’s Greco Roman skills, he’ll be bringing something to the table that Lesnar won’t really have seen much of before because Lesnar is a freestyle wrestler. If Couture puts Lesnar on his back once in this fight, it’ll be over. He’ll either pound him out or he’ll submit him (with the latter being the more likely scenario). I also favout Couture’s cardio over Lesnar’s which will play a big factor considering I doubt Lesnar has the abilities yet to finish Couture.

The big thing that is on my mind is whether or not Randy Couture will remain as the UFC’s heavyweight Champion? He hasn’t lost his title in the Octagon, yet the UFC have been trying to build up Nogueira for a while and may just strip Couture because he’s been out of the Octagon too long. I also doubt that the UFC would give Lesnar a shot at the title this soon. Whether they strip him or not everyone knows he’s the champion right now. I personally think a fight between him and Nogueira is a really bad matchup for Couture, but Randy should still be the one fighting Fedor. It’s a fight that needs to happen. It’s the UFC heavyweight Champion versus the PRIDE heavyweight Champion. We’ve been waiting years to see this finally happen. If Dana White is willing to bite the bullet and co-promote the fight just so it happens that fair play to him.

UFC 87 Predictions

This card sort of snuck up on me. I didn’t realise it was on this weekend until yesterday and apart from the three main fights (St Pierre vs Fitch, Florian vs Huerta and Lesnar vs Herring) I didn’t know who else was on the card. This is an excellent fight card. It might not be the most stacked UFC card of all-time but it’s certainly an entertaining card. The Florian-Huerta fight alone makes this fight card good. Anyway for the handful of people who read this rant and want to plagiarise my predictions (not sure why anyone would want to with my recent form, although I did get every Affliction fight right) here are my picks and thoughts on the fight card.

Main Card
Jon Fitch vs Georges St Pierre
(UFC World Welterweight title)
Prediction- St Pierre 2nd round knockout
I know how good Fitch is, but I just don’t see how he can succeed where others have failed before him. St Pierre is a better wrestler then Fitch, he’s a better striker then Fitch and he’s got better submissions then Fitch. Fitch has to do one of two things; he has to either get his decent at best stand-up and catch GSP with a knockout shot or he has to somehow put the guy with the (in my opinion anyway) 2nd best takedown defence in MMA (behind Liddell) on his back. GSP will feel him out on his feet then either proceed to take Fitch down and pound on him until he can’t take anymore or submit him, or he’ll keep the fight standing and destroy Fitch there. The smart move for GSP would be to take the fight to the ground so there’s no repeat of the first fight with Serra (Serra hits harder then Fitch, but Fitch has enough power to knock GSP out if he lands), but I’m sure whatever gameplan he implements will work fine. GSP by stoppage in the 2nd round, I think it’ll be with repeated punches from the mount.

Kenny Florian vs Roger Huerta
Prediction- Huerta on points
The smart pick with this fight would be Florian, he’s more experienced and he’s proven time and time again that he’s a top tier lightweight. Huerta though just has the fight in him. He reminds me of the stereotypical latino boxers who repeatedly go through anything and everything to get the win. I think Florian will beat him up in the first round before Huerta turns it around in the 2nd round and outworks Florian to take a unanimous decision in what should be fight of the night. Huerta has the edge in boxing in this fight, but Florian’s muay thai skills are very dangerous and could counter Huerta’s hands. On the ground I think Florian will struggle to use his jiu jitsu skills from underneath Huerta. Florian could very well be too much too soon for Huerta, but this is a fight that makes sense. This should be a great fight, I’ll be disappointed if it isn’t.

Heath Herring vs Brock Lesnar
Prediction- Herring 3rd round knockout
Herring’s lack of takedown defence makes me nervous in this fight, but despite Lesnar’s size I really can’t see him doing what guys like Fedor Emelianenko couldn’t and that’s finishing Herring with ground and pound (I’m fully aware Herring was stopped by Fedor, but Fedor beat the bejesus out of him for the first 8 minutes of the round before Herring reversed him and survived, the fight was stopped on a cut). Herring is as tough as they come and he’ll take some finishing. He has a huge edge standing up and I think he’ll use his leg kicks to wear down the bigger man and he’ll use his uncanny ability to survive on the ground. Lesnar will come out and take the fight to Herring and probably have a good first few minutes, after that when he doesn’t finish Herring and Herring starts landing with his leg kicks we’ll see what sort of fight Lesnar has in him. Herring to kick Lesnar’s legs out from under him and knock him out in the 3rd round.

Rob Emerson vs Manny Gamburyan
Prediction- Gamburyan 1st round submission
Really, why is Rob Emerson in the UFC? He’s an average fighter who won’t go far with not much personaility (apart from that he likes to wear a thong which I find really disturbing, not because I have a problem with anything like that, it’s just strange that such a normal sort of person has a thong fetish, it’s not even like he’s trying to be funny or something, he seems to just like wearing it) and for some reason he’s on the main card? Gamburyan’s going to fuck him up before winning by first round kimura.

Demian Maia vs Jason MacDonald
Prediction- Maia 2nd round submission
I’m looking forward to this fight between two top grapplers. Maia has been very impressive in his two previous UFC outings, earning submission of the night on both occasions. MacDonald has pulled off two submission victories over guys that on paper he wasn’t meant to beat in Herman and Leben. I give the edge in the grappling to Maia, but the edge in wrestling and stand-up to MacDonald. MacDonald should really keep this fight on his feet and avoid going to the ground with someone as dangerous as Maia. However, I think it’ll only take one takedown for Maia to win this fight by submission and that MacDonald won’t be able to keep Maia off him for the full three rounds. Maia by 2nd round armbar submission and his third submission of the night victory.

Preliminary Card
Dan Evenson vs Cheick Kongo
Prediction- Kongo 2st round knockout
I don’t know a whole lot about Evenson but if he has good wrestling he could cause an upset. I don’t think the UFC would have brought him in though if he was anything but cannon fodder for Kongo. Kongo by big first round knockout.

Chris Wilson vs Steve Bruno
Prediction- Wilson on points
Bruno is a well accomplished fighter making his UFC debut against ‘that guy who last fought Jon Fitch’ Chris Wilson. I was impressed with Wilson in that fight, he showed good stand-up and takedown defence, he just doesn’t have the game yet to compete with someone like Fitch right off the bat. The fact that he went to a decision with Fitch shows he’s good. Considering the ’octagon jitters’ are out of the road for Wilson and not for Bruno, I think this gives Wilson a huge edge. Wilson should start well, before Bruno finds his feet and makes it close in the latter stages, but doesn’t do enough to take the win.

Ben Saunders vs Ryan Thomas
Prediction- Saunders on points
I don’t know much about either guy other Thomas has a grappling background with most of his wins coming via submission and Saunders was on the Ultimate Fighter and didn’t really look like anything special. I’m very tempted to go with Thomas by submission but I always go with the guy I’ve heard in this situations. Saunders to win over the distance.

Luke Cummo vs Tamdam McCrory
Prediction- Cummo on points
McCrory is a dangerous dude. He’s shown that he can bang and also has shown he has the ability to finish the fight on the ground (although he was fighting Pete Spratt). However, I think Cummo’s unorthodox style will give him fits and Cummo’s conditioning will allow him to keep in control of the fight and take a pretty clear unanimous decision.

Andre Gusmao vs Jon Jones
Prediction- Jones 2nd round knockout
Jones seems to be a solid prospect and I think Gusmao is in over his head in this fight. Jones to repeatedly take Gusmao down and pound on him until the referee stops the fight.

UFC Fight Night and Affliction: Banned Results

Affliction: Banned Results

Fedor Emelianenko submits Tim Sylvia in 36 seconds
And what a 36 seconds it was. Fedor is the baddest man on the planet. I thought maybe he’d slipped a bit with the years of fighting relative no ones (to be fair he fought Mark Hunt at Shockwave 2006 and Hunt’s no mug) but he looked as good as ever against Sylvia. The punches that put Tim down were murderous, his ground and pound when Sylvia was hurt is just typical Fedor, and the fact that he could get that rear naked choke when Sylvia has defended well against that submission in the past in the time he got it in shows how good this guy is at grappling.
Fedor and Couture have to fight each other next. I don’t care where they fight or what it’s for but these guys have to fight. All this talk for years of who would win when the UFC and PRIDE Heavyweight champions fight each other, it just has to happen now. Randy is the UFC champion, and as far as I’m concerned he’ll stay that way until someone beats him. If I was Dane White, I’d swallow my pride, offer Fedor a $5 million one fight contract and have him fight Randy in the UFC. He’s better off to risk Fedor leaving the UFC after winning the title and having the biggest fight of all-time happen on his show (theres still a chance that Randy beats Fedor especially in the cage) then he is letting another organisation take all the glory.

Andrei Arlovski KO3 Ben Rothwell
This fight reminded me of Arlovski vs Cabbage except that Rothwell punched back a bit more then Cabbage did. Excellent fight, probably the best of the weekend. Arlovski looked the best he’s looked since he lost his title back at UFC 59. Rothwell was a lot better then I thought he was, but he was just too slow to handle Arlovski. The leg kicks in the first round really slowed Rothwell down as I expected them to but he still fought on. That guy takes an incredible amount of punishment. In my opinion, Arlovski stands the best chance at beating Fedor out of anyone. He can match Fedor’s speed (well sort of) and because he is a former Sambo world champion, he’ll be a bit more prepared for Fedor’s ground game. In saying that, I’d still pick Fedor to beat Arlovski.

Josh Barnett KO2 Pedro Rizzo
I have to say, I’m a much bigger Barnett fan today then I was yesterday. I’ve always had it in for this guy, probably because I’m a huge Couture fan and Barnett has run his mouth in the past about their fight. He impressed the hell out of me yesterday. His stand-up was very good and he kept Rizzo off balance throughout the fight and the finish was top notch. I’d like to see Barnett in against either Sylvia or Arlovski next.

Vitor Belfort KO2 Terry Martin
Belfort looked pretty good. He was moving well and boxing well. He never allowed Martin to get in the fight. I don’t know how people thought Martin won the first round, he was getting jabbed and turned around repeatedly and only landed that one shot on Belfort’s shoulder while he was off balance. I’d like to see Belfort fight Matt Lindland, that would be an excellent fight. As for Lindland, he looked good considering he’d been out for a while. He needs to fight again soon though so he can keep himself in good fighting shape.

Other Comments
The main thing that dissappointed me about this card was the quick stand-ups by the referee. For fuck sake, let these guys fight. Fighting on the ground is still fighting. These guys are the top of the food chain, they don’t need to be stood up. Stand-ups should only be used in lesser promotions to keep the fights interesting, when the guys are world class it should be entertaining enough that you’ve got two world class fighters fighting each other without the referee using his stupid arse opinion that stand-up fighting is more exciting then ground fighting. You just have to watch Wladimir Klitschko’s last two fights to know that isn’t always the case!
I like the ring in general (not as much as the cage though), but the Affliction ring definately needs some work. The ropes were way too slack, the table on the outside was dangerous and the referee’s don’t know what they’re doing with it. Why didn’t the referee’s restart them in the middle instead of turning them into the centre? Have these guys ever watched PRIDE before? If someone like me knows that the PRIDE officials used to turn them to the centre before they realised it was retarded and re-started them in the middle instead, then surely these guys in positions of power should know this as well right? As comical as the Japanese MMA is at times, they know how to work the ring. You need the officials on the outside supporting the ropes so the fighters don’t keep going through them, you need tight ropes and you need a referee who knows what the fuck is going on!
Overall, I enjoyed Affliction a lot. It beat the hell out of the UFC card (well on paper it should have). I’ve read people making fun of the back production but this is their second show. Go watch UFC 2 and see how bad that is. Megadeath worked better then I thought, I especially liked the intro with the fighters on the ramp. As you may have guessed I like my Japansese MMA, and this was similar to the PRIDE intros without the crazy Jap dude playing his drums and screaming. The production is only going to get better.

UFC: Silva vs Irvin Results

Anderson Silva KO1 James irvin
When I said that Fedor is the baddest man on the planet before, thats only because he’s bigger then Silva. Pound for Pound, I think Silva is number one (although its very close) mainly because of the manner he’s destroyed the number 2 and 3 guys. Fedor is yet to beat Randy Couture who in my opinion is the number two guy in the World. If he goes through him like Silva went through Franklin and Henderson then I think he’ll take Silvas pound for pound title away. Oh yeah, Silva destroyed Irvin with the first heavy shot he landed, did anyone think he’d do differently?

Other Fights
Vera looked sluggish, but that should be expected the first time he cut weight. Not to mention he was coming off back to back losses. He’ll be stronger next time he fights at 205lbs. Edgar fought a great fight, but I think he should go down to featherweight. Guys like Sean Sherk and Gray Maynard (who already beat him) are just going to outmuscle this kid if he stays at this weight. Jake O’Brien got bashed and I couldn’t be more happy. This guy doesn’t belong in the UFC, so they should get rid of him. He’s not a fighter, he’s a sexual deviant who likes to molest people. CB Dollaways submission was top notch and Burns should have been disqualified. Overall, it was a decent fight night, but not close to what Affliction was.

One last thing for those UFC nuthuggers who aren’t real MMA fans, Fedor beat Sylvia a lot better then Mir did and he beat a better version of Sylvia. He dropped him and made Sylvia tap out, he didn’t get taken down and have the ref stop it from an armbar (I very much believe that you have to tap for the fight to be stopped, if you’re crazy enough to fight with a broken arm then thats up to you). Not to mention Sylvia wasn’t straight off the roids yesterday like he was when he fought Mir. If you want to compare Fedor’s performance to anyone’s over Sylvia, then Arlovski is your man. But then again, Arlovski isn’t in the UFC anymore so that means he’s shit. There’s nothing wrong with a bit of competition, infact it will only make the sport better. Build a bridge and get over it!