The Machida era has begun

Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida became the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion at UFC 98 with a 2nd round knockout over Rashad Evans. Machida looked his usual self as he gave Evans no chance to land anything significant and scored with laser-like accuracy. After an uneventful first few minutes in the opening round, Machida briefly dropped Rashad with a short left after a leg lick in the only significant moment of the opening frame. The champion was more aggressive in the 2nd round which played right into Lyoto’s hands as he made Evans miss with ease before nailing the champion and dropping him again. Visibly hurt, Evans rose but was forced back into the cage by a barrage of strikes before being knocked out with another short left hand. The win sees the third UFC Light Heavyweight champion in as many fights with Forrest Griffin and now Evans both having lost their titles in their first defence.

This win surely puts Lyoto in the pound for pound mix. While he isn’t up there with the Silva’s, GSP’s and Fedors, he sits on or just below the same shelf as Penn and Torres. He’s gone through everyone he’s faced with such ease that it makes you wonder what is needed to beat him? The grapplers can’t get their hands on him and the strikers can’t land. His footwork, reflexes and defensive instints are on another level and he’s shown increased punching power so far this year with his two knockout wins. Rampage has to be next, although he might be looking for another fight before his next crack at the title. Light Heavyweight may have just joined Middleweight, Welterweight and Lightweight as a division with a seeminly unbeatable champion.

In the co main event, Matt Hughes won the long awaited grudge match with Matt Serra by unanimous decision. Serra had Hughes hurt in the first round after he followed up a head clash with a series of damaging punches before Hughes took Serra down and briefly had his back. The second round saw Hughes score with a takedown and control the entire round doing little damage from on top. The third was almost more of the same as Hughes scored another takedown and did nothing from on top as Serra attempted several submissions from his back. The lack of action forced a stand-up by Steve Mazzagatti before Serra took Hughes down and landed some decent shots from on top. Hughes escaped as the buzzer sounded and took the decision 29-28 on all three cards.

This fight made me kind of disappointed that these two didn’t fight over five rounds back at UFC 79. Rounds four and five would have likely decided the rightful winner in a razor thin fight that could have gone either way. I actually scored the fight for Serra as I thought he did more in the third round, but it really could have gone either way. I’d like to see these two fight again ASAP as there’s no one else out there that would make for a good fight with either of them right now. It was good to see them hug after the fight and exchange compliments, although I’m sure the ill-feelings between these two are fully resolved or ever will be.

Frankie Edgar scored the best win of his career with a unanimous decision over former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk. Sherk showed the complete lack of versatility in his stand-up game that got him in trouble against BJ Penn as Edgar boxed and moved and did it easy for most of the fight against the former champion. Sherk only attempted a takedown once and scored it, although Edgar got back to his feet in quick time. This win shakes up the division a bit and really establishes Gray Maynard as one of the top contenders as he’s beaten Edgar as well as a few other decent opponents. Also on the main card, Drew McFedries scored a devastating knockout over Xaier Foupa-Pokam in just 37 seconds. McFedries jumped on Professor X quickly and ended the fight with a barrage of hard, accurate hooks. Chael Sonnen scored his 2nd win in the Octagon with a three round domination over Dan Miller.

Preliminary Results
Brock Larson 1st round submission (arm triangle choke) Mike Pyle
Tim Hague 1st round submission (guillotine choke) Pat Barry
Kyle Bradley 1st round TKO (referee blunder) Phillipe Nover
Kryzstof Soszynski 1st round KO (punch) Andre Gusmao
Yoshiyuki Yoshida 1st round submission (guillotine choke) Brandon Wolff
George Roop split decision Dave Kaplan

UFC 98 Predictions

The Pacquiao-Hatton hangover ends this weekend with a good few days of fight action, none of it more spectacular then the UFC event this weekend. Headlining the card is Rashad Evans making the first defence of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship that he won in December from Forrest Griffin. His opponent is the undefeated Brazilian star Lyoto Machida who has won all six of his fights in the UFC against the likes of Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou and Thiago Silva. Outside of the UFC he has defeated two legends of the sport; Rich Franklin and BJ Penn (although Penn gave him a huge weight advantage). The co feature on the card is the long awaited grudge fighting between TUF6 coaches and former UFC Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra. The two were expected to fight at UFC 79, but a back injury forced Serra off the card and both were then beaten in their last outings early last year.

Predictions
Main Card
Rashad Evans vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Evans by 4th round knockout
Yes I am picking against the so far unchallenged Machida (and when I say unchallenged, he’s definately beaten good fighters, just none of them have tested him yet). There’s a few factors in this pick. First of all is Evans new found boxing skills which is something Machida is yet to face in the Octagon. None of his opponents have had good technical boxing ability and with this I believe Evans can capitalise on some of Machida’s unorthodox evasive maneuvers and land his hard right hand. Next there’s Evans wrestling background, which Machida has faced in the past but not combined with the hand speed and boxing ability that Evans has. Rashad should be able to better use his stand-up to set up takedowns should he choose to take the fight down whereas someone like Tito Ortiz or Kazuhiro Nakamura had no set-ups to their takedowns which made them useless. Not to mention that Evans has probably the best tactician in MMA in his corner. If anyone can figure Machida out it’s Greg Jackson.
The key factor though is Evan’s incredible conditioning. I can’t remember ever seeing Rashad tired in a fight. Machida’s stamina has never really been questioned because he’s never had to fight in the late rounds at anything other then the pace he wanted to go at. If Rashad can land some shots or score some takedowns he could fluster Machida and break him down with his workrate. I think Machida will be overwhelmed especially as the fight hits the 3rd and 4th rounds and Evans will come over the top of him and score a knockout in what should be a very entertaining fight.

Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
Prediction- Serra by 2nd round knockout
Yes I’m going with both Rashad and Serra. While Matt Hughes is very effective at what he does and it could work against Serra, I think he’ll need more then just good wrestling and a strong top game to win this fight. If the fight stays on the feet for a long period of time it’s big advantage Serra. If Serra gets on top in this fight it’s big, big advantage Serra. If Hughes gets on top of Serra he could very well get submitted although I think if Serra is on his back for too long he’ll do well to pull anything off on the bigger man. I think the big key in this fight is Serra’s improved stand-up and his punching power. Hughes’ stand-up has always been garbage and his keeness to trade in recent fights makes me believe Serra will take his head off with an overhand right and finish Hughes’ career.

ps- I’m going for Serra as well just so you know who’s side I’m on.

Frankie Edgar vs Sean Sherk
Prediction- Sherk on points
Sherk will give Edgar a chance if he’s stupid enough to box with him like he did with Tyson Griffin. If he fights like the Sherk who held the belt he’ll win this one easily.

Drew McFedries vs Xavier Foupa-Pokam
Prediction- Foupa-Pokam by 1st round submission
Like Sherk, Xavier gives McFedries a huge chance if he stands with him. He has excellent Muay Thai, but McFedries is as dangerous a banger as there is. Xavier’s submisison game is also good while McFedries’ is poor. If Xavier takes this to the mat he’ll tap McFedries quickly. If they stand up this could be fight of the night.

Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
Prediction- Sonnen on points
I’m picking this based on quality of opposition. I think Sonnen’s experience will help him in this one and his wrestling should dictate the course of the fight.

Preliminaries
Patrick Barry vs Tim Hague
Prediction- Barry by 2nd round knockout

Kyle Bradley vs Philipe Nover
Prediction- Nover by 1st round knockout

Andre Gusman vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Soszynski on points

Dave Kaplan vs George Roop
Prediction- Kaplan on points

Brock Larson vs Chris Wilson
Prediction- Larson by 2nd round submission

Brandon Wolff vs Yoshiyuko Yoshida
Prediction- Yoshida by 1st round submission

UFC 98 main card pull-outs

UFC 98 is another PPV card that has been changed on a number of occasions due to injuries. Originally dubbed UFC 98: Lesnar vs Mir II with that fight as the headline, Mir pulled out with an injured knee leaving Rashad Evans to step in making the first defence of his Light Heavyweight crown against Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson. Then Rampage pulled out leaving Lyoto Machida to take his place (don’t worry, nothing has happened to that fight). Josh Koscheck was set to face Chris Wilson on the main card along with the TUF 6 coaches grudge match between former Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra and the Lightweight battle between Seah Sherk and Frankie Edgar, but Koscheck was forced off the card with an injury leaving Brock Larson to step in instead.

Now, top Middleweight Yushin Okami has now pulled of his main card fight with Dan Miller as well as James Irvin pulling out of his 185lb debut against Drew McFedries (also on the main card) leaving two holes in the main card. Replacing Irvin will be Xavier Foupa-Pokam and replacing Okami will be Chael Sonnen. The Okami-Miller fight had upper level implications and should Miller win over Sonnen he’ll likely be seen as one of the top contenders (although an announced UFC 102 bout between Demian Maia and Nate Marquadt is likely to land the winner the next title shot). Foupa-Pokam has drawn a pretty exciting match that has me about 90% as excited as I was for the Irvin-McFedries fight. Although winning seven fights by submission (which makes anyone favourite over McFedries), Foupa-Pokam is a lethal striker and a slugfest could be on if Xavier doesn’t decide to take it to the ground where he should be too much for McFedries.

The UFC 98 card now looks like this:

Main Card
Rashad Evans vs Lyoto Machida (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship)
Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
Frankie Edgar vs Sean Sherk
(two to be added from Prelims)

Preliminaries
Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs Drew McFedries
Houston Alexander vs Andre Gusmao
Pat Barry vs Tim Hague
Dave Kaplan vs George Roop
Brock Larsonvs Chris Wilson
Phillipe Nover vs Kyle Bradley
Brandon Wolff vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida

UFC 91: Lesnar defeats Couture, Florian whips Stevenson

I’ve put this off a bit, First of all I was busy and it was hard to get on here and write this up (mainly because Main Event are cocksuckers and put the fight on a working day so I only saw it yesterday and since then I’ve worked 16 of the last 36 hours and out of the other 20 I’ve slept eight, driven to and from work for about two, trained four which leaves six hours that doesn’t include eating, showering and jacking off (about a 1-1-4 ratio there)) and secondly I wasn’t exactly eager to get on here and write about how one of my most unfavourite fighters of all-time knocked out my favourite fighter who is still alive.

Brock Lesnar 2nd round knockout Randy Couture
Basically Lesnar proved what Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga should have but couldn’t do after Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez did a few years back, and that is that Randy Couture doesn’t belong at heavyweight. Couture’s a freak and a legendary fighter and like all legendary fighters weight doesn’t play as much of an impact as it should with guys like this, but there’s only so much you can give away before it becomes a factor. When you’ve got a 60lb weight disadvantage against a guy who comes from the same background as you, all of a sudden those mistakess you make with your stand-up and submission games need to not be there and that’s where Couture lost this fight. If Couture was better at jiu jitsu he would have taken Lesnar’s back in the scramble in the first round and likely choked him out and if his stand-up was better he would have taken a few more of the many many many openings Lesnar leaves in his stand-up and likely knocked him out. I thought Couture had those parts of his game up to the level where he could take advantage of those, but with 60lbs of weight against him it made those advantages he had over Brock that bit more even.
Despite the win, I’m not sold on Lesnar that much. He has a good one two and throws good knees (it was a knee that hurt Couture about 5 seconds before the right hand that dropped him) and is a big strong guy who will take people down who don’t have good wrestling, but he reminds me of Tito Ortiz at Light Heavyweight when he was dominating. As soon as someone has a good enough skill set with the style matchup to take some of Brocks physical advantages away they’ll beat him. If Nogueira isn’t too shopworn to beat Mir then I can’t see what Brock can do with him. I’d pick Gonzaga to tear Lesnar apart within five minutes if he shows the form he did in that fight. Don’t even get me started on what the Affliction trio (Fedor, Barnett and Arlovski) would do to that guy. Lesnar has way too many weaknesses to deal with a big man with good skills. That was the first time we’d seen him try and outwrestle someone who can wrestle and even with the extra weight, his takedowns were easily stuffed (except for one) by Couture and if Couture had the extra lbs on his frame, the fight wouldn’t have been a contest. Brock to be beaten within a year; within one defence if Nogueira isn’t upset by Mir.

Now onto the rest of the card, which quite frankly was top notch.

Kenny Florian 1st round submission (Rear Naked Choke) Joe Stevenson
And what a rear naked choke it was! Florian totally dominated the fight and proved beyond all doubts that first of all he is a better fighter then he was when Sean Sherk manhandled him two years ago, and secondly that he is the top contender to BJ Penns crown should Penn stay at 155lbs. I don’t think Florian will hang with Penn, but he could make a competitive fight out of it. Who knows as well, we haven’t seen Penn in a hard fight at 155lbs since the rematch with Caol Uno at UFC 39 so we’re still not sure how good Penn’s cardio is; if Florian doesnt get blown away early he could make it interesting.

Dustin Hazelett 1st round submission (Crazy Armbar/Omoplata thing) Tamdan McCrory
That was just sick in both the figurative and literal translations. If anyone just watched the main event or for what ever reason hasn’t seen this, go and see it. The only other thing that needs to be said about this fight is that Hazelett has the best bumfluff beard I’ve ever seen.

Gabriel Gonzaga 1st round knockout Josh Hendricks
Time for Gonzaga to have his competition stepped up I think. Cheick Kongo would be the perfect opponent for Gonzaga to put himself right back into the mix against, either him or Junior dos Santos. Hendricks should be fighting the likes of Eddie Sanchez and they should be fighting in a small venue in Redneckville for a $50 winner takes all purse.

Demian Maia 1st round submission (Rear Naked Choke) Nate Quarry
Glad I was wrong here. Maia is a beast on the ground, that half guard sweep was beautiful and Quarry didn’t have an answer for him once he got on top. Actually, I don’t think there’s a middleweight out there who would have an answer for this guy on top of him. He’s one of those rare talents in MMA who can make anyone’s guard seem non existant. Put this guy in with Okami or Bisping or anyone else near the top of the middleweight picture because he’s ready.

Other Results
Jeremy Stephens 3rd round knockout Rafael dos Anjos
Aaron Riley UD3 Jorge Gurgel
Mark Bocek 3rd round submission Alvin Robinson
Matt Brown 2nd round submission Ryan Thomas

UFC 90 Results

We saw a mixed bag during the UFC today. While the main event ended unsatisfactorily (although no one is to blame as it was a freak accident), four of the other five fights we saw today were either great battles or had great finishes. The other fight was a good tactical fight but one that left the Illinois crowd and the referee who repeatedly asked both fighters to work. I won’t write the Illinois crowd off as idiots yet because it seems to happen the first time a big MMA show hits a new US state, they’re so pumped up that they boo everything that isn’t Griffin-Bonnar like. One thing that does piss me off though is idiot referees who don’t let the fighters fight. I’m not sure why stand-ups are even in the UFC anymore. They originally came in for two reasons. First reason was Dan Severn who is the Godfather of Lay and Pray, and the second reason is because back in the day when fighters were one dimensional, probably 80% of fighters couldn’t get back to their feet when they got taken down. Then add to that the fact that probably 70% of fighters couldn’t do much on top unless they were fighting a BJJ newbie, it led to some really boring fights. In this day and age, if you’re in the UFC and you can’t get back to your feet you don’t belong there. I still think stand-ups should happen in smaller shows because at lower level MMA you get the same situation that used to happen in the UFC, but in the big show with the best fighters in the World let the fighters fight!

Anderson Silva TKO (injury) 3rd round Patrick Cote
Strange fight. I’m not trying to take anything away from Cote here, but I really think Silva wanted some cage time. If he threw more then 30 strikes a round I’d be surprised. He looked nothing like he did when he took Rich Franklin apart in those two fights and Franklin is a much better fighter then Cote. To Cote’s credit, when Silva did land he took it well. He took a few head kicks and knees that would have floored lesser men. The ending was a little disappointing as Cote blew his knee out in the 3rd round and couldn’t continue. Full credit to him for repeatedly trying to get to his feet and continue, and Anderson Silva is a very classy guy for not jumping on him when he injured himself. The only fight for Silva at 185lbs is Yushin Okami. Okami is clearly the number one contender with wins over Jason McDonald and Evan Tanner as well as the close loss to Rich Franklin. Throw in the fact that Okami is the last man to defeat Silva (even if it was by disqualification in a fight that Silva should have won; I don’t care what the rules say, if you can knock someone out while on your back you deserve the win) and this is a fight that can be marketed. What I’d really like to see happen is for Silva to go up to 205lbs and rule there. Does anyone really think Rashad Evans or Forrest Griffin could hang with The Spider?

Thiago Alves UD Josh Koscheck
Great fight. Alves beat Koscheck up in the first and third rounds but Koscheck made a fight of it. Koscheck is a tough son of a bitch and even though I don’t like him, he deserves props for having a sturdy chin and heart to match it. Alves went to work with his leg kicks and high kicks and stuffed every one of Koschecks takedown attempts. He dropped Koscheck in the first round and had him in a lot of trouble in the third as well. Alves is the logical choice for the next shot at the Welterweight title whether that be against BJ Penn or Georges St Pierre. Whowver wins that super fight on Super Bowl weekend has their hands full with the Pitbull.

Gray Maynard UD3 Rich Clementi
Maynard outwrestled him, it was that simple. Maynard is one of the top lightweights in the UFC and while I think he’ll struggle against some of the better fighters, I think he matches up very evenly with the others based entirely on his wrestling ability. I’d like to see Maynard take on Emerson again if he doesn’t land a big fight, but with BJ Penn possibly staying at 170lbs, a four man tournament over two events would be an exciting way to sort out who the new champion is and I think with his last two wins (over Clementi and Frankie Edgar) he deserves a spot among those four. Throw in Sherk, Nate Diaz and the Florian-Stevenson winner and thats a good four fighters to have compete for the crown if Penn stays at 170lbs.

Junior dos Santos KO 1st round Fabricio Werdum
Wow! Santos shocked the hell out of everyone with that win. Props to anyone who called that and I know there were a few of them but I really didn’t think that Werdum would have much trouble in that fight. Santos is right in the mix now with that victory as Werdum was definately a top contender with his recent form. There’s plenty of good fights for Santos with the likes of Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Heath Herring or Cheick Kongo all matching up well with Santos.

Sean Sherk UD3 Tyson Griffin
I never thought I’d say this about a Sean Sherk fight, but that was fight of the night out of the ones I’ve seen. Sherk took Griffin down a lot easier then I thought he would early on and even took his back twice (although as always, Griffin escaped in the most exciting way possible). In the second and third rounds as I predicted both guys duked it out with Griffin dominating the first part of the round and Sherk outworking him in the last 2-3 minutes and probably pinching the fight there. Griffin’s cardio is good, but Sherk’s is on a whole other level and that was the difference in this fight. Sherk needs to remember that he’s a wrestler more and go for more takedowns because if Griffins cardio was better today he could have been in trouble standing with him when he was taking him down as easily as he was early in the fight.

Thales Leites Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 1st round Drew McFedries
Leites likely earns another submission of the night award with this performance. He used his right leg like a third arm once he took McFedries back (after he passed his guard like he was a white belt) and left McFedries defending with one arm. Then after sliding his free arm under McFedries’ throat, he quickly locked it up and forced the tap. Good to see Leites get his TV spot at the end of the show as well after his original opponent Goran Reljic was injured forcing him off the main card.

Other Results
Pete Sell UD3 Josh Burkman
Hermes Franca UD3 Marcus Aurelio
Spencer Fisher Submission (Triangle Choke) 3rd Round Shannon Gugerty
Dan Miller UD3 Matt Horwich

UFC 90 Predictions

Two UFC events in two weeks, its hard not to like that. The good thing about this weekend is that there’s no big boxing matches to tear my loyalty between the two. The choice has been made for me and even though I have to pay for it, most UFC’s are worth the money. In the main event Anderson Silva takes on Patrick Cote for the UFC Middleweight World Championship. Also on the card are two very important fights which will establish the next contenders Welterweight and Lightweight divisions. Thiago Alves takes on Josh Koscheck in the co main event for the first shot at the BJ Penn-Georges St Pierre winner and former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk makes his comeback against always exciting Tyson Griffin.

Main Card
Patrick Cote vs Anderson Silva
(UFC Middleweight World Championship)
Prediction- Silva by 2nd round submission
This fight could very well end in the first minute with Silva taking Cote out with a huge barrage of punches, but something Cote said makes me think different. Cote basically put the challenge out there when he said that Ricardo Almeida has a better ground game then Silva. Silva is as cocky as they come and may want to make Cote eat his words by submitting him. Either way, I’ll be surprised if this fight goes half the scheduled distance because Silva is that good and Cote isn’t my first choice for a title shot. I am fully aware that it was meant to be Yushin Okami but he broke his hand and couldn’t be ready, but Cote just flat out isn’t ready for this fight. This could get very ugly.

Thiago Alves vs Josh Koscheck
Prediction- Alves by 2nd round knockout
Koscheck steps in for injured Diego Sanchez who was originally meant to fight Alves and therefore makes this a better fight. Koscheck in my opinion should have got this fight ahead of Sanchez because he beat Sanchez last year and has beaten two good fighters since while Sanchez has been given guys that will make him look good. Koscheck should provide a better test then Hughes did for Alves based on a couple of things. First of all, Alves made weight for this fight and won’t have that size advantage that he did last time. Second, Koscheck is a better wrestler then Hughes (although he isn’t as dangerous on top because he hasn’t learnt how to do anything with it yet) and he has better stand-up. Still, I think Alves will be harder to take down then Koscheck is used to, then throw in the fact that Koscheck thinks he can strike and Alves can strike and I can see Alves punishing Koscheck with leg kicks and then knocking him out when he lacks the ability to move out of harms way.

Junior dos Santos vs Fabricio Werdum
Prediction- Werdum by 1st round submission
Like me you’re probably wondering who Santos is. I don’t know a thing about him other then he probably is no match for Werdum and he’ll probably get submitted quickly. With some of the other fights on this card, I won’t bother wasting any time on this one. Hopefully it ends quickly and we get to see one of the better preliminaries.

Tyson Griffin vs Sean Sherk
Prediction- Sherk on Points
This is a very interesting fight. Both guys are wrestlers who have excellent takedowns but both guys also like to throw their punches. This fight will probably turn into an ugly boxing match as their wrestling will cancel each other out. If one of the guys is to get the takedown on the other, I expect it to come from Sherk who I feel has the better wrestling. Sherk has excellent guard passes and could very well win this fight by submission if he gets Griffin on his back long enough. I also give Sherk the edge in the stand-up although it’s close. Griffin has a good variety of punches and this could prove a difference if they do indeed duke it out, but Sherk has good defence standing up and his straighter punches should give him an edge. I think Sherk will win with a combination of takedowns and crisper boxing and probably win rounds two and three easily after a close first round.

Rich Clementi vs Gray Maynard
Prediction- Maynard on points
I’m psyched that this fight is on the main card. The winner of this fight probably moves into the top five Lightweights in the UFC. I give the edge in striking in this fight to Clementi but Maynard’s wrestling should cancel that out. On the ground, I doubt Clementi can really get himself in a position to be able to submit Maynard, and may end up spending the whole fifteen minutes trying to maintain guard while Maynard drops hammerfists and elbows on his head. I doubt Maynard will finish Clementi, but he should overwhelm him on the ground.

Preliminary Card
Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries
Prediction- Leites by 1st round submission
Another late replacement on this card, McFedries replaces Goran Reljic who was meant to fight Leites on the main card. McFedries has a punchers chance and always does because he has enormous power, but his lack of ground game should give Leites an easy submission win and submission of the night if Silva decides to knock Cote out instead of submitting him.

Spencer Fisher vs Shannon Gugerty
Prediction- Fisher by 2nd round knockout
Another replacement here as Gugerty replaced Melvin Guillard and ruined what should have been a good fight as any fight where Guillard loses is always a good fight. Fisher should have too much for Gugerty in all aspects of the game and I don’t expect this fight to go the distance.

Matt Horwich vs Dan Miller
Prediction- Miller by 1st round submission
Miller steps in to replace Ricardo Almeida who was forced off the card with an injury. This is a battle between two IFL veterans, with Miller having competed in the IFL a few times and Horwich having fought most of his career there. I think Miller will make it 2/2 in the UFC after his rear naked choke win over Rob Kimmons at Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer. I don’t think Horwich can avoid the takedown or live with Miller on the ground. Miller by rear naked choke in the first round.

Marcus Aurelio vs Hermes Franca
Prediction- Franca on points
This is a fight I wanted to see! Franca is a BJJ black belt under Aurelio and both of these guys now hate each other. It’s student vs former teacher and the sort of storyline you’d see in a bad martial arts movie but it’s for real. If this fight hits the ground it should be a BJJ war as both guys have excellent guards and like going for submissions and both guys are very good on top as well. I think Franca has the better stand-up of the two and that’s why I’m picking him but it’ll be first to make a mistake who loses on the ground. If either guy locks in a submission, don’t expect the other to tap. This could be a really ugly ending similar to Ryan Gracie on Shungo Oyama (or Mir on Sylvia for all you UFC newbies who haven’t experienced the magic of PRIDE yet).

Josh Burkman vs Pete Sell
Prediction- Burkman on points
Sell has better stand-up and better jiu jitsu but Burkman should nullify that with his excellent wrestling ability. The other big factor in this fight is that Sell always finds a way to lose. He nearly beat Scott Smith and he lost, he nearly beat Nate Quarry in the rematch and he lost. I’d like to see Sell win, but I don’t think he will.