Writing elsewhere

Since no one really reads this anyway and I couldn’t be bothered trying to drum up interest I don’t know why I’m even bothering putting this up, but this site won’t be used anymore and I’ll be writing over at www.theroar.com.au now. Any followers from here can read my stuff there.

UFC 129 Predictions

I’ve had some computer issues hence the lack of posts in the last week but there’s no better card to come back to then this one. Without a doubt this is the most stacked card of the year so far with two title fights as well as two fights with a lot of divisional significance behind them and a fun undercard (except for Matyushenko-Brilz) and it’s being held in front of 55,000 Canadian fans. In the main event Georges St Pierre takes on EliteXC Welterweight champion and Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields for the UFC Welterweight championship. St Pierre makes his sixth defence of the title he took from Matt Serra and looks to break a drought of decision wins which has gone back to January 2009! Shields was on a tear in the smaller shows, defeating Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Mayhem Miller and then upsetting Dan Henderson before signing with the UFC. He edged Martin Kampmann out at UFC 121 in October to earn the shot but has also defeated the likes of Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami in what is now a 15 fight win streak.

Co featuring see’s the first UFC Featherweight championship fight with reigning champion Jose Aldo defending against Canadian Mark Hominick. Aldo was the reigning WEC champion, technically making his third defence of the title having previously defended against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. Hominick is a former UFC fighter, competing at lightweight where he went 2-0 (beating Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel) before dropping to featherweight and the WEC. Hominick is riding a five fight win streak that saw him somehow get a split decision over Leonard Garcia and knock out George Roop at UFC Fight for the Troops in January. Also on the card UFC hall of famer Randy Couture will fight former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson makes his UFC debut against up and comer Mark Bocek.

Georges St Pierre vs Jake Shields
(UFC Welterweight Championship)
Prediction- St Pierre by third round stoppage
I really don’t like Shields at welterweight. I think the weight cut hurts him too much and his cardio is shit at this weight. He looks so much better at 185 where he can grind on an opponent for five rounds like he did to Henderson and Miller. I thought Shields looked ordinary against Martin Kampmann (to the point where I scored the fight to Kampmann) and had the Dane fought a smarter fight (ie not trying to guillotine someone with those sort of grappling credentials every chance he had and giving up takedowns to do it instead of just sprawling and using his superior striking) he would have won easily. I don’t think Shields will get St Pierre down and if he does I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him there long enough to set up a submission. He’ll be forced to fight GSP in a stand-up battle and his stand-up quite frankly is poo and his chin is suspect. St Pierre will outwork him, Shields will gas and GSP will get his first stoppage win since BJ Penn.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
(UFC Featherweight Championship)
Prediction- Aldo on points
Hominick is one of the few guys who will offer Aldo a test on the feet. He’s a world class kickboxer and while his power isn’t overly devastating it’s solid and he’s technically sound. I just think that Aldo will be too quick and explosive. He’ll control the pace, keep the fight on the outside where he can land his jab and his leg kicks and I don’t see him leaving his comfort zone to try and take Hominick to the ground to get the finish. Hominick will last because he’s tough, and he might even make a round or two close but Aldo will be too quick, too confident and too good and will win by a wide margin.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Prediction- Machida by second round knockout
(knockout of the night pick)
I’d be more confident in Couture if I’d seen him fight at a decent level in the last 12-18 months. He hasn’t had a proper test since Brandon Vera in November 2009 and he struggled in that fight with Vera’s takedown defence and muay thai skills. Machida’s movement and unorthodox striking I think will work well against Couture’s attempts to tie him up and his takedown defence is very strong. The thing that worries me for Randy is I think his resistance to punishment has dropped significantly. Coleman rocked him with a right hand briefly in their fight, Vera dropped him with a body kick and was hurting him with knees to the body and Nogueira dropped him twice and I don’t think any of those guys have the power that Machida does (even Nogueira who is 30-40lb heavier). Machida’s style works well against guys who can’t beat him standing. Couture might get him to the fence where he can use his inside game and punish Machida from the single collar tie with elbows and uppercuts, but I think he’ll take too much coming in and Machida will eventually knock him out.

Jason Brilz vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Prediction- Brilz on points
Why this fight is on the main card is beyond me. It’ll be a clinch fest with very little striking and I think Brilz has the more well rounded game and will win a snoozer.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
Prediction- Henderson on points
(fight of the night pick)
Henderson’s wrestling and striking will get him the decision but I see him having to get out of multiple submission attempts from Bocek who has one of the nastiest submission games at 155lbs. This fight should be high tempo with good scrambles on the ground and while they probably won’t be the most technical punch exchanges on the feet, they should be fun. I think Henderson’s hips and ability to stay on top will get him the edge in most rounds. It should be close and it should be very entertaining.

Preliminaries
Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald
Prediction- Diaz by third round submission
(submission of the night pick)
I won’t rule MacDonald out completely in this fight but I don’t think he has the strength to dominate Diaz on the floor or the experience to get out of submissions. He’ll do well early but Diaz’s technical advantages will take over and he’ll pick MacDonald apart on the feet and punish him there before catching him in something late.

Jake Ellenberger vs Sean Pierson
Prediction- Ellenberger on points
I admittedly have only seen Pierson once, but Ellenberger seems to have the advantage here being the better credentialled wrestler. Plus I feel he’ll have something to prove after an average showing against Rocha in his last fight.

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts
Prediction- Patrick by first round submission
Another fight I’m very much looking forward to. Both guys have sneaky submission games and a good deal of smaller show experience behind them. I like Patrick and have been a fan for a while and I think he’ll deliver in front of his hometown fans and he’ll catch Roberts early with a submission. The longer the fight goes the better Roberts will do but I think he gets caught dry by the more experienced fighter.

Ivan Menjivar vs Charles Valencia
Prediction- Valencia on points
Menjivar’s game is a little out of date in my opinion. He’s a tough guy and he’s given some good fighters hard fights over the years but Valencia has been more consistent lately, even if his game isn’t top shelf. Loser goes home I think, and the winner gets fed to an up and comer.

Ryan Jensen vs Jason MacDonald
Prediction- MacDonald by second round submission
Jensen is always entertaining. His fights never go the distance and I don’t think this one will either. MacDonald gets another crack at keeping his UFC career alive and I think he drew a good matchup. Jensen has a habbit of getting himself caught in armbars and chokes in fights his winning and I think this one goes the same way.

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson
Prediction- Watson by first round submission
Makdessi is an interesting prospect ith a background in taekwondo and karate. He’s gone 8-0 and while I’ve only seen his last fight, I think Kyle Watson is a step up for him. Watson has good takedowns and solid top control and submissions. He’s patient and makes few mistakes and I think he’ll get Makdessi down and show up the Canadian as having a lack of ground game. It’s a good test for a striking prospect, but it’ll have to be put don to a learning curve I think.

Pablo Garza vs Yves Jabouin
Prediction- Garza by first round submission
For those of you who don’t know Garza, he was one of the better guys on the TUF GSP vs Koscheck show. The trouble was he drew eventual runner-up Michael Johnson in the first round of fights by hard fought decision and didn’t end up on the show. He won by brutal knockout on the finale and Jabouin won’t be able to handle him. His submissions are nasty and his stand-up is explosive. He’ll struggle with the wrestlers but a fight like this is made for him.

UFC: Rio shaping up, Shogun-Griffin II to co-main event

The card for UFC’s return to Brazil is starting to take shape and is looking to be one of the more entertaining cards of the year, on paper at least. Middleweight king Anderson Silva is expected to take on the last man to hold a victory over him in Yushin Okami (as bogus as that win was, another story for another day) in the main event of the night, a fun rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions will co-feature. Recently disposed of UFC Light Heavyweight champion and former PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua takes on the man who ruined his UFC debut in Forrest Griffin. These two previously met at UFC 76 in September of 2007 with Griffin winning in a war via rear naked choke in the closing seconds of the fight.

I really think this is a bad matchup for Shogun coming off the battering he received from Jones. Griffin is another big guy with solid fundamentals who has the ability to shut down Shogun’s game with his size, plus he is a much more polished fighter then he was when he took on Shogun in 2007. That fight was the fight that Griffin showed what he had in and he’s only improved since. In saying that though, Shogun didn’t have much in the way of cardio in that first fight and Griffin’s chin has since been exposed a few times so it’s a hard fight to call. Rematches in MMA are often so hard to predict especially when you have two top guys fighting four years after they first fought. Fighters and fighting evolve and change so much in four years that it’s hard to picture how the fight will go the second time around. One thing I think this fight won’t be is boring, the way these two fight (especially if Shogun brings cardio this time) it’s going to be a high tempo dog fight with either Shogun’s cardio or Griffins chin giving out. I am leaning towards Griffin though, I think he’s a bad style matchup for Shogun and it may be the push Shogun needs to think about dropping to 185.

Also on this card is another fun slugfest featuring PRIDE 2005 Lightweight Grand Prix champion Takanori Gomi against rising Brazilian Edson Barboza. Barboza is 2-0 in his UFC career and 8-0 overall, coming off a points win over Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128. Gomi’s coming off a loss to Clay Guida and will need to put the prospect away in order to stay relevant in the division. Add to this the possible return of Royce Gracie and it should be an entertaining card (if not the most important one of the year).

UFC 110 Picks

UFC 110 in Australia takes place tomorrow and with the excitement of attending my first UFC event I’ve left it a bit late to post my picks up. With nothing better to do to kill the remaining 12 or so hours before the first preliminary fight, here’s my picks for tomorrows event:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Pick- Nogueira by 2nd round submission
While I agree that Velasquez is probably the safe pick in this fight, I don’t see any way he can win this fight inside the distance and against a finisher and a survivor like Nogueira that is dangerous. As good as Velasquez is, his game revolves around his wrestling and his explosiveness. His power has appeared overrated in his last three fights with an inability to finish Cheick Kongo despite the numerous advantageous positions and strikes he landed, a controversial stoppage against Ben Rothwell where he again landed numerous strikes that were taken as comfortably as one could take numerous strikes from a 230lb Mexican fighter and a one sided beatdown that went way longer then it should have against Denis Stojnic. Velasquez’s striking is technically below average and his lack of positional knowledge on the ground could get him into trouble against a Jiu Jitsu master like Nogueira.

Nogueira has two big advantages in this fight; boxing and jiu jitsu. Velasquez has proven he can take a punch from a top level MMA striker in the fight with Cheick Kongo, but if he chooses to keep the fight on the feet Nogueira will outbox him en route to a unanimous decision win. If Velasquez decides to use his wrestling to take the fight to the floor, he won’t gain the superior positioning against Nogueira that he has enjoyed in previous fights. I have no doubt that Nogueira could sweep Velasquez as he has swept plenty of good fighters in the past who have solid top games (most notably Fedor Emelianenko although it did him little good). While Nogueira’s pure jiu jitsu isn’t on the absolute elite level, his game is among the best for MMA as he works off his opponents strikes. I think Velasquez will probably be ahead on points early in the fight, but will likely fall victim to one of Nogueira’s chokes during a scramble sometime during the middle of the fight.

Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping
Prediction- Silva by 1st round knockout
I honestly think that Bisping is scared of Silva. He’s trying to put on a brave front, but he seems to be reacting to whatever Wanderlei does. At the weigh in he seemed to be comfortable until he had to stare Wanderlei down. This is where Wanderlei is at his best, when he has an opponent who he can intimidate. Bisping’s only real shot in this fight is if Wanderlei’s weight cut severely effects him (he looks a hell of a lot better then he did when he fought Franklin so I assume he’s done it better this time) and then he’d have to employ a hit and run style and win on points. I think Wanderlei’s almost reckless style will overwhelm Bisping and he’ll be able to utilise his clinch game and overall just punish ‘The Count’ until he can’t take anymore. Silva by brutal, one sided knockout.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropolous
Prediction- Stevenson on points
I think the UFC are banking on a big win by George so they can use him as they used Bisping to build shows around him in Australia. I think they will be spoilt as Stevenson’s top game will be a bit too much at this stage of Georges career. If George can keep the fight standing, he’ll punish ‘Daddy’ as Stevenson’s stand-up has always been poor, but Stevenson is a solid wrestler and I believe he’ll win a unanimous, but highly competitive decision while utilising his top game.

Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
Prediction- Jardine on points
Bader is still completing his game and one of the areas he lacks is in the stand-up. Jardine is coming off a big knockout loss and back to back losses, but with the quality wrestlers he has to train with I think he’ll be well prepared for Bader’s takedowns. Bader on the other hand has no one to replicate Jardine’s unorthodox (thats a kind way of putting it) striking style and I think once Jardine gets into a rhythm, Bader will have a hard time getting anything going against him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Anthony Perosh
Prediction- Cro Cop by 1st round knockout (hopefully a head kick)
Well most people were disappointed when Ben Rothwell pulled out on Friday, but I sort of wasn’t. Being the old school PRIDE fan that I am I’m sort of hoping to see Nogueira pull of a come from behind submission win, Wanderlei destroy someone and Cro Cop win by head kick knockout. He has a much better chance of knocking out Perosh then he did Rothwell (I’d have picked Rothwell in their fight). Perosh is a UFC veteran, having dropped fights to Jeff Monson and Critian Wellisch and he is a solid ground fighter having competed in Abu Dhabi, but he has been the victim of some knockouts in the past (one of them to James Te-Huna, who fights on the prelims) and I expect nothing different from him here.

Preliminaries
Stephan Bonnar vs Krysztof Soszynski
Prediction- Bonnar on points
Bonnar’s a handful when he’s on his game and I think he’ll be on his game tomorrow. It’s a pickem fight I feel and I think he’s due to pull one out.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Foster
Prediction- Foster on points
This fight will be fight of the night. These two live for the war and I expect nothing less. Foster is the less battle hardened of the two, but he brings more physical tools to the fight and thats where I think he wins it.

CB Dollaway vs Goran Reljic
Prediction- Dollaway on points
It’s been a long wait for the return of Goran, almost two years and I think Dollaway is too much too soon after such a long lay off. Goran looked good when he defeated Gouveia, but I think Dollaway will be hungry for a big win and will grind out a tough decision.

James Te-Huna vs Igor Pokrajac
Prediction- Igor by 1st round submission
I’m not holding out much hope for the Kiwi kickboxer. His ground game is pretty average and Igor is an experienced wrestler and once it hits the ground Te-Huna will be a fish out of water.

Why MMA will take over Boxing in Australia

How well would the boxing kangaroo fight off it's back?

With one night to go until the UFC makes it’s much anticipated Australian debut, everything in this country is set up for MMA to finally push boxing into the past and emerge as the future of combat sports down under. With the shoddy state of boxing in Australia at the moment, about the only thing that will stop MMA from moving past boxing would be an ugly incident either in the Octagon or in the crowd at next Sundays event. With even the head honcho’s involved with boxing not caring about it’s future, but rather trying to milk every last cent out of it right now, yet the people in charge of MMA trying to build the sport’s long term future it’s only inevitable that boxing be taken over by the new sport.  

With the small coverage MMA has received in Australia it has a cult following among the people who know about it. The guys who know lots about it get their friends into it, albeit at a much smaller level. The effect of this is like that of a trail of gun powderand the UFC 110 card in Sydney tomorrow is the spark that will explode MMA into a more mainstream sport in Australia. Tomorrow’s show sold out inside of a week with probably 90% of the tickets selling before they were open to the public meaning that there will likely be a second show sometime in the not to distant future (likely next year around the same time). With hardly any big boxing fights taking place in Australia (Australia’s main promoter Angelo Hyder is stuck in the late 90s thinking that big names that Australians want to see are Roy Jones jnr, Evander Holyfield and Mike Tyson, three men ten years past their best), an annual UFC event will only help the sport grow. The fact that One HD has scrapped it’s “Super Boxer” series and shows next to no current boxing, yet they will show UFC 110 live tomorrow for free is also a big sign of what is to come in the future. 

The bottom line is that Boxing in this country is a joke. The fact that Australians will go to the pub or fork out $50 to watch a Mundine pay per view to see him fight some fringe South American contender while some Rugby League star has a pub brawl with a guy who wouldn’t even be club level material anywhere else in the world yet they couldn’t tell you who the heavyweight champion of the world is is of major concern. Nothing is done to push boxing back into the spotlight or develop some of the upcoming fighters. Even the recent Australian version of ‘The Contender’ left out decent prospects like Jamie Pittman, a man who has the skills to be a threat on the world stage but lacks the exposure that a show like ‘The Contender’ would have given him to be able to build a following in this country. There are plenty of guys out there like Jamie Pittman who are talented boxers but just can’t build the following down here that they would have otherwise done if boxing was taken seriously. Sure Pittman is very well known to the boxing public, but do you really think the Captain of the Australian Olympic Boxing team would be struggling to get televised or even get decent fights in England or the USA? Yet guys like Sonny Bill Williams and Carl Webb get main support fights on what is probably the biggest stage in Australian boxing (the Mundine shows) and probably earn just as much!  

The production value of boxing shows is also a major problem with boxing in Australia. The fact that  MORON like Andy Raymond, who is a Rugby League commentator with no clue about anything boxing is the voice of the sport down here is nauseating. The ring announcers have no idea how to properly announce a show, and yes there is a proper and improper way of doing things. For one, you don’t announce the rules of the bout while the fighters are in the ring waiting to get it on (see the Green-Jones prelims for an example). You don’t announce a close decision in favour of ”the red corner” in the biggest domestic fight of the year (see Mundine-Geale decision) when no one pays any attention which corner they’re fighting out of. It’s painful watching a high profile boxing card in Australia because you can tell that the people in charge of running it have no idea what they’re doing. I rarely watch local Fox Sports boxing shows anymore because of how bad it is (that and the mismatches that they often have). You don’t need four or five ring girls dancing in the ring between rounds with dance music playing (you didn’t see this on say the Pacquiao-Cotto card for example did you?). You don’t need to show the Australian rankings after every fight and you definately don’t need to show random rounds out of insignificant fights from past local shows when you’ve got nothing else to do. One of the main strengths of the UFC is the production value. They do an amazing job of hyping up the fights with pre fight interviews, a highly energetic ring announcer and the right amount of tits and arse between rounds with the focus being more on the fighters which is what the people watching paid to see. 

Should the UFC 110 card deliver tomorrow, expect to see a rise in regional MMA shows and an even further drop in local pro-am boxing cards. With more and more people already turning to kickboxing or jiu jitsu, there’s bound to be an emergence of competitors willing to try their luck with 4oz gloves instead of the 12oz gloves and headgear that amateur boxers use. There are already a number of good fighters from Australia and New Zealand (two of them fight tomorrow night on the main card) and if some of them can increase their celebrity down here to a slightly mainstream audience, something that say a victory for George Sotiropolous over Joe Stevenson tomorrow night would do, it’s only going to help the MMA cause down under. Boxing has been on a slow decline in this country since the late 80′s when we had our last batch of Australian contenders who actually fought one another. Sure there’s been a slight resurgence with the likes of Anthony Mundine and Danny Green and Daniel Geale, but our best fighters (Vic Darchinyan and Michael Katsidis) both fight overseas and have a bigger following in the USA then they do down here. No longer are the days of TV ringside where contenders were brought up through the tough local circuit and had to earn their status when fighters like Hector Thompson, Tony Mundine and Paul Ferreri gave the world champions of the day, men who are among the greatest to have ever entered a boxing ring in their respective divisions, some of the toughest fights of their career. The state of boxing today is one of prospects not learning their craft through overprotection and mismatches who end up taking the massive step up in class that they aren’t ready for and when they lose those that were paying attention to them no longer do while the rest of Australia who aren’t as into boxing as someone like me is go on watching their Mundine cards and having a laugh when the two heavyweights start trading arm punches with their chin in the air. MMA has slowly been taking over in America, and although boxing is run pretty badly over there, it’s not nearly as bad as it is down here. All that is needed to start the MMA frenzy is for the biggest promotion in the world to bring one of its shows down here to get some mainstream attention.

Couture ends Coleman’s UFC career

Randy Couture easily defeated Mark Coleman at UFC 109 in the hall of famers match in the main event by rear naked choke. Couture couldn’t miss with his strikes as he battered Coleman from the outside early in the fight. Coutures pace briefly slowed after he was seemingly rocked by a Coleman right hand, but after shaking off the blow Couture turned his attention to the clinch where he punished ‘The Hammer’ with his dirty boxing to finish out the first round. After more of the same early in the 2nd round, Couture scored a takedown and ended up in mount. Coleman gave up his back after taking some punches and Couture scored an easy rear naked choke which put the 2000 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix winner to sleep.

The win was probably Couture’s easiest since his first appearance in the UFC. Coleman had absolutely no answers for any of Couture’s game. He didn’t shoot in once, his boxing was as terrible as it’s ever been and while he took a beating, Couture has never really had knockout power in his punches. The only thing that really stood out for me in this fight was the fact that Couture was rocked by the one punch Coleman did land. This for me further emphasises the fact that Couture’s punch resistance and durability has worn thin over the years. As a major Couture fan, I don’t look forward to him fighting one of the younger, more dangerous opponents at 205lbs.

As for Coleman, he has since been cut from the UFC and hopefully he has made some decent money in his last few fights. I’m also glad that Tito Ortiz’s attempts to salvage the Coleman fight were shut down quick as I believe that Ortiz was looking for an easy win and seeing how Ken Shamrock no longer fights in the UFC, he went for the next best thing, another mid forties UFC hall of famer who’s time was in another era. Fighting Ortiz would have been pointless as the man is an absolute legend of the sport having twice been considered the best fighter in the world at different periods in the game and also being one of the men who changed the approach to the sport. Before Coleman most of the real top level wrestlers got takedowns and either held position or in rare circumstances went for submissions. None of them dished out the sort of punishment that Coleman did from top position. Coleman also paved the way for many other top wrestlers to get involved with MMA with the likes of Mark Kerr, Kevin Randleman and Kevin Jackson soon joining Colemans training camp and then going on to win titles in the UFC.

On the undercard, Chael Sonnen earned the number one contenders slot with a gruelling unanimous decision win over Nate Marquadt. Marquadt looked good for the first minute, scoring with some solid punches before Sonnen got the first of many takedowns in the fight. From on top, Marquadt had few answers for Sonnen’s relentless top game and was controlled and punished for the first two rounds. Sonnen survived some scary moments in the third round, including a guillotine choke that only seemed to fail because Marquadts hands slipped apart, but he earned the unanimous decision and the right to face Anderson Silva (should he get by Vitor Belfort Demian Maia in April).

Sonnen-Silva should be interesting and probably the first interesting Middleweight title fight since Silva unified the belts by beating PRIDE champion Dan Henderson. Sonnen has already trash talked Silva and with a victory over Paulo Filho, Silva wil be motivated to avenge his friends loss. I think you can expect to see Silva bring out his A-game on Sonnen when they fight but then again I wouldn’t count Vitor Belfort out of the UFC 112 bout. Belfort has serious knockout power, the likes of which Silva probably hasn’t dealt with in his career. Out of anyone I give Vitor the best crack at beating Silva.

(Since writing this I learnt that Belfort is in fact out of UFC 112 and Demian Maia has taken his place on the card).

In other results, Matt Serra scored a big first round knockout over Frank Trigg. Seriously, if you didn’t think Serra was a top ten welterweight for some stupid fucking reason before this, I think this settles it. Serra is a dangerous fight for anyone at 170lbs. Demian Maia grinded out a unanimous decision win over Dan Miller. Paulo Thiago made it 2-1 v AKA fighters, choking Mike Swick out with a Darce choke which was executed after a knockdown. Thiago is going to be an extremely dangerous fighter in a year or so once he irons out some of the roughness to his game.

(Sorry for the week off, I’ve been busy again and seeing how there were no fights on this weekend I thought I’d catch up then.)

Legends Collide at UFC 109

Some fights just aren’t meant to happen.

The history behind tomorrow’s UFC 109 main event between Hall of Famer’s Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture and Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman suggested that this was one of those fights. Originally scheduled to meet at UFC 17 in Coleman’s return fight from his shock loss to Maurice Smith (he would have challenged Couture for the heavyweight title Couture won from Smith at ‘Ultimate Japan’), Couture was forced off the show with an injury paving the way for youngster Pete Williams to fight Coleman and shockingly KO Coleman with a highlight reel head kick. Couture left the UFC not long after, heading to Japan’s RINGS organisation where he’d lose three fights between 1998 and 2001 while Coleman lost a decision to Pedro Rizzo before heading towards the PRIDE.

With both fighters careers looking to be closing down, they both turned it around in 2000. Coleman outlasted a field of eight top competitors to win the PRIDE 2000 Open Weight Grand Prix, a tournament billed to crown the best fighter on the planet (with the exception of two or three UFC fighters at the time, it pretty much did) while Couture returned to the UFC and defeated their heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman before defending it twice against Pedro Rizzo in explosive battles. Again Couture and Coleman were at the top of the sport and were the subjects of the first PRIDE vs UFC champions debate, but their meeting wouldn’t happen. Coleman lost his title to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and his career went on a slide from there while Couture did his thing in the UFC (do I really need to go into detail on what everyone already knows on Couture?) and the fight hasn’t really been talked about since.

Tomorrow the two MMA legends meet at Light Heavyweight in the main event of the UFC’s annual super bowl weekend card (for anyone who gives a shit I’m picking the Colts). The fight is of little significance right now. Although it does push Couture very close to another title shot should he win, should Coleman win he’ll likely be fed to an up and comer and brutalised. Still, probably the most anticipated fight in MMA history (apart from the one where somehow or another Fedor fights the reigning UFC Heavyweight champion) was when Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva were ruling their respective organisations’ 205lb divisions, and when they eventually fought it was off the back of consecutive losses and their fight was an absolute war. The Couture-Coleman fight is definately one to check out.

While both men come from wrestling backgrounds (Coleman was a 92 Olympian, Couture was two time Olympic alternate) their styles are much different now. Coleman has often been criticised for not evolving and his style very much relies on his ability to get the fight to the ground and get on top. Couture on the other hand as learnt how to box and has learnt submissions and learnt them to the levels where he has used them to win fights. Couture’s weaknesses have been against much bigger guys or guys who could hurt him standing and stuff his takedowns. Coleman definately has the wrestling pedigree to stuff Couture’s takedowns, but his stand-up has always been primitive in terms of technique. The other big factor besides the overall game of both men is conditioning. Couture is always in top shape while Coleman has lost many fights due to his lack of gas. Even though Couture’s durability has looked suspect in recent fights and while Coleman probably looked the best he’s ever looked in his last fight, I doubt he can outstrike or outlast The Natural.

I think this fight will see a clinch battle for the first round with both men trying to get the other on their back. The big difference will be that Couture will likely score with punches that lead to the clinch and then will likely have the upper hand in the ‘dirty boxing’ game which he is a master of. Couture’s clinch game will wear on Coleman’s conditioning which will make Coleman’s takedown shots become desperate and open him up to punches as well as takedowns from Couture himself. I think if Couture gets on top at anytime in this fight he’ll end it, while if Coleman gets on top Couture will probably escape. I really don’t see anyway in which Coleman wins this fight unless he somehow outworks Couture. I can see the fight ending in one of three ways; ground and pound, rear naked choke or some sort of choke off the sprawl with Coleman too gassed to fight it. Either way I think Randy Couture wins this fight in the 2nd round.

The undercard is fairly appetising with the co-main event to decide the next Middleweight title challenger. With Nate Marquadt’s defeat of Damian Maia and Chael Sonnen being the man to finally defeat Yushin Okami as well as Dan Henderson’s depature from the UFC, the winner of this fight is the most logical challenger for the title since Henderson himself. This fight is interesting in terms of style, similar to the Couture-Coleman fight, as Sonnen has a strong wrestling base while Marquadt is the more well-rounded fighter. Marquadt is definately the more dangerous fighter in terms of striking and submissions, but Sonnen’s wrestling is that good that he could overwhelm Marquadt and take a decision. Sonnen has been submitted in the past, but I’d hardly but Marquadt in the submission league of Damian Maia, Jeremy Horn or Paulo Filho. Still, I think Marquadt’s well rounded game will give him the edge, and I think he’ll win a close decision in a competitive fight (I’d like to see Sonnen win just to see him cop a bashing at the hands of Anderson Silva because he’s an A-grade douche bag).

Also on the main card, Mike Swick attempts to further avenge the knockout Paulo Thiago inflicted on fellow AKA fighter Josh Koscheck (Fitch already beat him last year). I don’t see Thiago handling Swick. His striking, despite scoring the knockout over Koscheck, is full of holes and Swick is the best striker from AKA and I think he’ll tear Thiago a new one inside a few minute. Former Welterweight champion Matt Serra takes on Frank Trigg in a semi-old school battle as both men have been around sinde the 90s. I think Trigg will finally do the job and send Serra back down to 155lbs where he should be, although Serra is going to be dangerous for the entire fight with his knockout power and submissions. Trigg’s size advantage and wrestling base should see him through to a decision win. Damian Maia also returns, taking on Dan Miller. Miller has the tools to make this fight hard for the submission ace, but I think this fight hits the ground at some point and Maia submits him when it does.

On the undercard, Mac Danzig should break his losing streak against Justin Bucholz, I’m picking Ronny Torres to submit Melvin Guillard because he’s a BJJ fighter and Guillard has no submission defence, Nover to destroy Rob Emerson, Rolles Gracie and Phil Davis to win their UFC debuts and YAMMA Pit Fighting veteran Chris Tuschererererererer to defeat Tim Hague.

I’m Back (again)

Apologies for the lack of anything over the last few months, my personal life got in the way and I just didn’t have the motivation to write anything on here. I’m back now and will make time to do what I usually do on here. Anyway, over the last few months:

- Dynamite was awesome as usual. I particularily enjoyed the extended MAX fight in the main event between Masato and Andy Souwer. Usually these guys have trouble getting warmed up over three rounds and to see them fight over five was very special. Main Event or someone should really pick this shit up and show it down here because its an awesome show and now with Sengoku’s roster available this is going to be a yearly highlight much like Shockwave was back in the day.

- The UFC slump appears to be over with some good fights coming up. The real highlight over the recent events was BJ Penn’s schooling of Diego Sanchez. Fuck fighting Frankie Edgar, this guy should vacate and earn a third fight with GSP by fighting Matt Hughes a third time (Hughes did beat him in their last fight) and then someone like Fitch.

- Pacquiao was awesome against Cotto and it’s extremely irritable that Mayweather came up with special demands in order to make the fight, demands that Pacquiao didn’t come to terms with. Mayweather is in no position to ask for procedures outside of what is required by the NSAC and the fact that the fight fell apart because of this really pisses me off. Pacquiao is not to blame here, he’s not some 2nd rate chump sho has to dance by Mayweathers tune. He’s the draw right now with his string of impressive KO wins while Mayweather is riding the momentum of outpointing a man three weight divisions below him. Hopefully Mosley makes mince meat of Berto and then him and Mayweather get it on, that’ll at least give me something to look forward to in the world of boxing.

- As for Danny Green, full respect for the win and full respect for chasing Bernard Hopkins, but Holyfield and Tyson? Seriously this shows the lack of boxing coverage down here if they want to sell these fights to us. No one gives a shit about those two anywhere else in the world anymore. Green needs to call out Chad Dawson if he wants to prove he is the best. And one more thing, Green is not a cruiserweight despite what his ‘world title’ suggests. He’s a light heavyweight who didn’t bother losing the 5lb to make it official in his last fight who picked up a belt that not many people care about in order to try and sell the Jones fight as something other then a 40 year old has been vs a decent contender. To go even further, Green is definately not the 2nd best Cruiserweight in the world which certain Australian boxing publications would have you believe.

UFC 101 Predictions/Site Update

Apologies for the lack of, well, anything this month so far. I’ve been extremely busy and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I’ll still be covering the big events as much as possible and I’ll do a recap of anything recent in those.

Now, Fedor…. I think it could have been a lot worse (Fedor signed with Strikeforce, not the UFC) but I’d definately have preferred him in the UFC. Overeem has the potential to be a challenge although I think he gets submitted once it goes to the ground. Rogers probably has the best chance but I think he’ll also be taken out once it hits the ground and Werdum will probably go the distance while in survival mode with Fedor not risking going to the ground with him. Some Indian fighter won the K-1 qualifier and will be making up the numbers at the Final 16. Manhoef and Lazceno will take part in this weekends qualifier. That’s about it off the top of my head.

UFC 101 now and it’s a ripper of a card with two quality lead fights and three good fights supporting it. I think Florian has a real chance in this fight. His thai boxing skills are something Penn hasn’t come across and his BJJ is also good although I think Florian will want to avoid fighting from his back. If this fight goes past the 2nd round I think Florian can pull it out, but I think Penn will win the fight mainly through heavy right hands on the feet and ground and pound once he gets on top. Florian will be game but I think Penn stops him in the 2nd or 3rd from either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.

Silva-Griffin is also an interesting fight. Griffin is a big guy with an excellent workrate and heavy kicks. His boxing sucks as he arm punches and slaps a lot and doesn’t do much damage and contrary to popular belief his chin isn’t good although he’s extremely durable to constant punishment as long as the guy isn’t a world class striker. Silva unfortunately is and he’s also extremely fast. I think this will be a blowout with Silva doing a number on Griffin in the first two minutes. It’ll be really interesting if the fight goes past the first round how Silva handles someone like Griffin pushing the pace on him.

Full picks: Penn by 3rd round sub
Silva by 1st round KO
Grove on points
Sadollah by 2nd round KO
Pellegrino on points
Leites by 1st round sub
Riley on points
McCrory on points
Sotiropolous by 2nd round sub
Riddle on points
Lennox by 1st round KO

Combat Sports over the weekend

A lot happened during my recent absence and I can’t be fucked writing seperate articles for everything so here it is in brief format:

Hopoate outpointed Mirovic at Super Boxer last Thursday. This was by far the worst card so far with the main event somehow managing to eclipse the first fight in terms of being boring as all fuck. Mirovic did alright early but once Hopoate started landing he went into his shell and resorted to holding. He lost a point in the 9th round for repeated holding (a call I can’t dispute because I actually fell asleep in the 8th). The undercard was pretty ordinary with a bullshit stoppage for Ben Edwards (the guy maybe deserved an eight count and he was outclassed, but you’ve got to let him fight I mean it’s professional boxing, I’ve seen amateurs more outclassed then that and allowed to continue), a decent fight between Erin McGowan and Angie Parr in which McGowan won on points and a mismatch n the first fight that went the distance.

Fox Sports however gave me some more fuel for the fire I’ve lit in terms of referees sucking in this country. The Rob Medley fight was a disgrace by the referee. He took a point off for holding when the guy was punching back and doing alright even though he was losing. He repeatedly warned the import for nothing and even when Medley fouled he warned the import for doing nothing. The stoppage and the footwear was bizzare, but the other guy quit because the referee was that bad. Something seriously has to be done about refereeing in this country because we’re starting to get the reputation that Germany had a few years ago in terms of bad places to come and fight the home town fighter. If I was an overseas fighter I wouldn’t come to Australia to fight based off the recent performances. Australian officiating is that far behind the rest of the boxing world that it’s become serious.

Now for the big MMA news, Affliction: Trilogy is off and Affliction is dead as a fight promoter. They were gonna merge with Strikeforce, but Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker is on holidays and they couldn’t make the deal. So now Affliction has been bought out by the UFC with from what I understand the UFC getting the fight library, some of the contracts and first crack at signing the rest of the fighters under contract. The big possibility here is that Fedor is signed and the fight with Lesnar made, but I’m skeptical. Fedor and his management won’t have changed their tune and will want a co-promotion with M-1 Global for the fight to be made and still probably want an open contract. Vitor Belfort is likely to be signed and will be a nice addition to the middleweight picture. Affliction will now act as a major sponsor for the UFC and fighters will be allowed to wear Affliction T-shirts in the Octagon again (not when they fight of course).

Also news is that Tito Ortiz could be returning to the UFC and could be facing Rich Franklin instead of the Franklin-Henderson rematch at the main event of UFC 103. A press release has been scheduled for Saturday for some ‘big announcements.’