Boxing Breakdown: Khan-McCloskey, Berto-Ortiz, Juanma vs Salido

A fairly quiet weekend ahead this weekend with no overly marquee matchups in either boxing or MMA. HBO is running a show featuring two of its younger champions fighting in two main events in different countries. The main fight sees Amir Khan taking what is essentially a keep busy fight against Paul McCloskey before he takes on Timothy Bradley mid this year for the unified Junior Welterweight championship. In the other main event, Andre Berto defends his WBC Welterweight title against Victor Ortiz. Also this weekend we have featherweight titlist Juan Manuel Lopez defending his title against Orlando Salido in Puerto Rico.

Amir Khan vs Paul McCloskey
Khan ended up settling on opponent Paul McCloskey for his hometown fight. I’ll be honest, I know nothing of McCloskey, I’ve had to “boxrec” him to find anything about him out at all. He’s the current European champion and there’s no one on his record who’s name I’m overly familiar with. Combine that with the facts; this is an optional defence for Khan and the promoters have been having lots of trouble selling TV rights to anyone in the UK and I don’t think McCloskey is going to cause Khan any serious threat. Khan seemes to get better with every fight under Freddie Roach, and he seems to take guys like McCloskey out quickly. The one thing I notice with Khan is that he has a significant loss in power aftter the first 4-5 rounds of a fight, somethindg I don’t think will be a problem in this fight but something I wanted to say to make it seem like I put a bit more into this fight then I actually did.
Amir Khan by knockout round 4.

Andre Berto vs Victor Ortiz
This is a fight that I think a few years ago no one would have predicted taking place, well at least not in this situation. Ortiz was being built up for a while as the next De La Hoya, until Marcos Maidana derailed him in their 2009 war. Ortiz was always featured on the marquee shows and there was hype around his fights, even when he fought the likes of Carlos Maussa and Jeffrey Resto. He headlined his own card fighting Mike Arnaoutis. Even after his loss to Maidana he was built back up; HBO wanted a four man tournament with Bradley-Alexander in one bracket and Khan-Ortiz in the other. The only problem was Ortiz had to get through Lamont Peterson on the Khan-Maidana undercard and he didn’t, they drew making the matchup unmarketable.
Andre Berto on the other hand was always fighting on the undercards of the lesser shows and he wasn’t given easy matchups. He fought David Estrada in what wasn’t a gimme fight on the Pavlik-Taylor I undercard. He fought Steve Forbes on the Mosley-Margarito undercard. They put him against Luis Collazo, a guy who had given both Ricky Hatton and Shane Mosley awkward nights. Berto is a fighter who has come up as old school as you can in the new age of boxing without taking a loss, he’s fought in hard fights that weren’t a guarantee he’d win against guys with different styles who were going to test him and he’s come through. Now they’re essentially feeding their failed pin-up boy to him to showcase their new up and coming star.
Ortiz has a chance in this fight. Despite what people say about his heart the kid comes to fight. He’s got knockout power in his hands and good boxing skills. But against Berto I think he’s going to be shut down by about the 4th round. Berto has an ability to shut guys down with his hand speed and Ortiz’s biggest problem is his lack of adaptability. He was winning his fight with Lamont Peterson handily and then Peterson made some adjustments and Ortiz couldn’t figure them out. Berto is every bit as skilled and quick and adaptable as Peterson, except his bigger, more experienced and battle tested. Ortiz is going to need everything to go his way for him to win this fight, and even then I think he’ll also have to hope Berto has a bad night.
Andre Berto on points.

Juan Manuel Lopez vs Orlando Salido
Lopez had a solid 2010, taking out WBO featherweight champion Steve Luevano in his 126lb debut then defending twice against Bernabe Concepcion in a two round war and closing the year out with another war against Rafael Marquez, stopping him after 8. Salido is a step down from those three, but has been around for a while having fought Juan Manuel Marquez and Roberto Guerrero a few years back (he actually beat Guerrero before he failed the drug test) and is coming off a closish points loss to Yuri Gamboa, the  man people have been calling for Juanma to fight. I guess thats why this fight has been made, Gamboa last year took Rogers Mtagwa out in two rounds after Mtagwa nearly took Juanma out in his previous fight. Now Juanma is looking to do the same I guess. Salido has a good chin, so he’ll probably hang around for a while, but he won’t pose a serious threat for Lopez who’ll score a late stoppage or a wide decision win. Hopefully this sets up the much hyped fight with Gamboa, a fight I like the Cuban in by knockout. Also in action is junior lightweight prospect Luis Cruz who takes on Martin Honorio.
Juan Manuel Lopez by knockout round 11.

Site Update

Just to let anyone who’s interested know, I’m taking a short break from writing anything basically because 1) I don’t have a whole heap of time right now and 2)there isn’t much on until the K-1 Final 8 in December. I’m working on a few things that will keep this site busier in the new year (like the long promised monthly rankings), more will be talked about when they are further developed. I’m also pleased to mention that the site has endured its most consistant month with nearly 100 views a day thanks largely to UFC 91. I’d also like to point out that my UFC 91 Undercard Predictions got seven times the views that the article on the prediction of the main event did (so much for my theory that people only cared about the main event on this card). Anyway for those of you who like to use my predictions and call them their own (anyone who has been using my UFC picks like that needs mental help), I’m picking Hatton to beat Malignaggi on points in a one sided affair and thats all there is on for the next few weeks that I can think of.

Boxing Breakdown: Bernard Hopkins v Kelly Pavlik

Undisputed World Middleweight Champion Kelly Pavlik moves up to fight Former Undisputed World Middleweight Champion Bernard Hopkins at a catchweight of 170lbs today. With just a few hours to go before this fight I can’t think of any better way to spend the hours waiting by thinking about what will happen. This is one of the bigger boxing matches this year with two of the top 10 pound for pound fighters in the World fighting each other. This is also a very interesting stylistic matchup with the defensive/counter puncher/spoiler in Hopkins facing the aggressive/relentless Pavlik. Then throw in the fact that the younger fighter (Pavlik) is coming up in weight to face the older fighter and its really a strange matchup.

Kelly Pavlik
Pavlik had a sudden rise to the top of boxing last year with knockout wins over Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor in wars. Since then he beat Taylor in a rematch on points at a catchweight of 166lbs and then knocked out some overmatched English fighter who’s name isn’t that important (ie I can’t remember who he was). Pavlik likes to throw lots of punches and has deceptive speed, power and strength. He’s built like a praying mantis yet throws with the power of an elephant. His defence is a little suspect especially early but he usually fights at such an incredible pace while still throwing straight punches that he breaks his opponent down.
For Pavlik to win this fight he’s going to have to simply outwork Hopkins. He definately has the firepower to put Hopkins away if he can wear him down, but the early rounds are Hopkins chance in this fight. If Pavlik can avoid Hopkins counter punches early or just do enough work that they are insignificant he’ll win this fight. For probably the first time Pavlik will be facing a bigger/stronger man then him and this could be a big factor in the fight. Pavlik can’t get lazy with his jab, he has to double it up and not allow Hopkins to counter it. If Pavlik gets through the first four rounds without taking any real damage and is still throwing 80% the amount of punches he normally does he should win this fight.

Bernard Hopkins
Hopkins held the IBF middleweight title for about 12 years and was Undisputed Middleweight Champion for four years. After losing his title to Jermain Taylor and the subsequent rematch, he moved up to light heavyweight and took the consensus #1 fighter Antonio Tarver to school. Since then he beat fellow top pound for pound fighter Winky Wright in one of the worst fights I’ve ever seen before losing to Joe Calzaghe earlier this year. Hopkins is a defensive genius and knows every trick in the book. He is basically impossible to hit cleanly and makes everyone he fights look bad. Hopkins biggest problem is he doesn’t throw anywhere near enough punches, probably due to his advanced age.
For Hopkins to win this fight he has to make Pavlik respect his power and limit his outage with his holding and counterpunching. If Hopkins lets Pavlik dictate the pace at all in this fight he’ll get outworked. Its very hard to beat a guy who throws over 100 punches a round when you throw 25-30. I really think Hopkins has to hurt Pavlik early if he wants to win this fight and I think he has more then enough power to do it. He has to make Kelly throw less then 70 punches a round and he has to make him miss most of them and he has to make his punches count. Size, strength and experience will be Hopkins biggest weapons in this fight.

Prediction
I’m going with Hopkins to win a close decision. I think the extra weight will be a big factor. Hopkins has fought near this weight a lot more then Pavlik has and because he is the bigger guy combined with his defensive know-how he’ll prove too much for Pavlik to be able to break down. I think he’ll make Pavlik pay everytime he’s lazy with his jab and he’ll make Pavlik respect him more then he needs to and will potshot his way to a decision victory. I really do hope I’m wrong but the more I’ve thought about this fight the more I see Hopkins beating another guy smaller then him who a lot of people don’t think he should beat. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Hopkins knocks Pavlik out. However, if ‘The Executioner’ isn’t at the best he can possibly be for his age I think Pavlik will outwork him and win a comfortable decision. Still, I can see Pavlik getting all tied up in Hopkins spider web of a defence and Hopkins landing the cleaner shots during the fight. Pavlik isn’t like Calzaghe with his ability to throw large amounts of punches and not be hit, he’s there to be hit and for someone as cagey as Hopkins I think that’ll be his downfall. Hopkins by unanimous decision.

This week in Boxing (13th September)

Juan Diaz outfights Katsidis
Juan Diaz won a 12 round split decision over Michael Katsidis for the vacant IBO title last weekend. Katsidis fought a good fight but the difference between the two fighters was that Diaz is a lot more technically sound and doesn’t rely solely on his power. However despite his 2nd consecutive loss, Katsidis was impressive particularily in his attitude after the fight. When asked if he thinks he should take a softer touch in his next fight, he responded with something to the tune of (I can’t find the exact quote ’its a 17 hour flight to the USA from Australia so I don’t want to come all this way for a soft touch.’
On the undercard Rocky Juarez stopped Jorge Barrios in round 11 of a junior featherweight contest. I haven’t seen this fight because we didn’t get it on the coverage down here.

Khan KTFO, Cook wins title
Amir Khan got exactly what he deserved for thinking that his fights are pay per view material and got KTFO (KTFO is ‘knocked the fuck out’for any NOOBs out there) in the first minute of his fight by unknown Argentinian and 9-1 underdog Breidis Prescott. I only wish that this would happen to certain Australian fighters who think their mismatches are worthy of $50 PPV prices. Now I did like Khan from the Olympics and I’d hoped he did well as a pro, but you’ve got to earn PPV slots, not just put yourself on one because you think you’re that good. Khan needs to go back to fighting on undercards against guys who will make him work and make him learn and then earn his spot. On the undercard Nicky Cook won a 12 round decision over Alex Arthur to take his WBO 130lb title.

Week of lightweights sort of ruined
Joan Guzman has failed to make weight for his fight with Nate Campbell. The fight is still on, but it won’t be for any titles and it has the potential to throw a massive spanner in the works of the best division in boxing if Guzman manages to win. With Marquez fighting Casamayor for his linear title this weekend as well, it had the potential to set-up a major fight between the winners of those two fights. Now we have to hope Campbell wins his fight for anyone to be that interested in seeing the Casamayor-Marquez winner take him on. I think Guzman will still be too classy and frustrate the very inconsistant Campbell en route to winning a decision. In the other fight I’m picking Marquez to outwork Casamayor, but its a very tight fight to call.

Other fights this weekend
And theres a lot of them. First, Sergio Mora rematches with Vernon Forrest for the WBC 154lb title. I think Forrest will come out with something to prove in this fight and he needs to because a loss will probably be the end of the line for him. I’m picking Forrest to win inside the distance in this fight. Forrest KO10.
Andreas Kotelnik also makes his first defence of his WBA 140lb title, taking on Norio Kimura. With a name like Kimura I’m surprised he didn’t get into Judo instead of boxing. I’ve not heard of Kimura or know anything about him, so I assume Kotelnik beats him, probably over the 12 rounds.
Even though theres like 10 ‘world titles’ up for grabs this weekend, I’m only going to comment on the Timothy Bradley fight as well. He takes on dangerous but limited lightweight Edner Cherry in the first defence of his WBC world junior welterweight title. Despite only a 50% KO ratio, Cherry can punch. He could take the title if Bradley makes a mistake. I think Bradley will handle him pretty easily as he is a class above him. Bradley via 12 round unanimous decision.

This week in Boxing (30th August)

Oscar De La Hoya takes on Manny Pacquiao on December 6th
The fight was announced yesterday. Manny Pacquiao will move up to welterweight to take on Oscar De La Hoya. I’ve made my opinions very clear on this fight so if you want to know how much of a mismatch I think this pointless fight is, check out these posts:
http://angryfightfan.wordpress.com/2008/08/23/this-week-in-boxing-23rd-august/
http://angryfightfan.wordpress.com/2008/08/16/this-week-in-boxing-16th-august/
For the record anyway, all of my frustration is aimed towards the De La Hoya team for this fight. I have tremendous respect for Pacquiao for taking such a hard fight and I really hope he can find a way to knock De La Hoya out. If he can there’s no one who can really question that this man is an all-time great. I just don’t see how he can do it and don’t see at all why this is such a big fight. I’d much rather see Margarito take on Paul Williams or Cristian Mijares take on Fernando Montiel then watch this fight.

Olympic Boxing Results
Well for the first time in who knows how long the Cubans didn’t win a Boxing Gold Medal in an Olympics they competed in. The Chinese and Russians topped the Boxing Medal Tally with two gold medals each. The United States continued their fall in Amateur Boxing by securing only one Bronze Medal this Olympics.
Here’s the full results of the Gold Medal fights:

Junior Flyweight
Gold: Shiming Zou (China)
Silver: Serdamba Puredjorj (Mongolia)
Bronze: Paddy Barnes (Ireland), Yampier Hernandez (Cuba)

Flyweight
Gold: Somjit Jongjohor (Thailand)
Silver: Laffita Hernandez (Cuba)
Bronze: Georgy Balakshin (Russia), Vincenzo Picardi (Italy)

Bantamweight
Gold: Badar-Uugan Enkhbat (Mongolia)
Silver: Yankiel Leon Alarcon (Cuba)
Bronze: Bruno Julie (Mauritius), Veaceslav Gojan (Moldova)

Featherweight
Gold: Vasyl Lomachenko (Ukraine)
Silver: Khedafi Djelkhir (France)
Bronze: Shahin Imranov (Ajerbaijan), Yakup Kilic (Turkey)

Lightweight
Gold: Alexey Tishchenko (Russia)
Silver: Daouda Sow (France)
Bronze: Yordenis Ugas (Cuba), Hrachik Javakhyan (Armenia)

Junior Welterweight
Gold: Felix Diaz (Dominican Republic)
Silver: Manus Boomjumnong (Thailand)
Bronze: Alexis Vastine (France), Roniel Iglesias Sotolongo (Cuba)

Welterweight
Gold: Bakhyt Sarsekbayhev (Kazakhstan)
Silver: Carlos Banteaux Suarez (Cuba)
Bronze: Silamu Hinati (China), Jungjoo Kim (South Korea)

Middleweight
Gold: James Deagle (Great Britain)
Silver: Emilio Correa Bayeaux (Cuba)
Bronze: Vijender Kumar (India), John Sutherland (Ireland)

Light Heavyweight
Gold: Xiaoping Zhang (China)
Silver: Kenny Egan (Ireland)
Bronze: Yerkebulan Shynaliev (Kazakhstan), Tony Jeffries (Great Britain)

Heavyweight
Gold: Rakhiem Chakhkiev (Russia)
Silver: Clemente Russo (Italy)
Bronze: Deontay Wilder (United States), Osmai Acosta Duarte (Cuba)

Super Heavyweight
Gold: Roberto Cammarelle (Italy)
Silver: Zhieli Zhang (China)
Bronze: Vyacheslav Glazkov (Ukraine), David Price (Great Britain)

Medal Tally
Countey (Gold-Silver-Bronze)
1. China (2-1-1)
2. Russia (2-0-1)
3. Italy (1-1-1)
4. Mongolia (1-1-0)
5. Thailand (1-1-0)
6. Great Britain (1-0-2)
7. Kazakhstan (1-0-1)
8. Ukraine (1-0-1)
9. Dominican Republic (1-0-0)
10. Cuba (0-4-4)
11. France (0-2-1)
12. Ireland (0-1-2)
13. Armenia (0-0-1)
14. Ajerbaijan (0-0-1)
15. India (0-0-1)
16. Mauritius (0-0-1)
17. Moldova (0-0-1)
18. South Korea (0-0-1)
19. Turkey (0-0-1)
20. United States (0-0-1)

Cazares-Calderson II, Mijares returns this weekend
The big rematch between the top two Junior Flyweights (108lbs) in the World takes place this weekend. Ivan Calderson puts his undefeated record and WBO 108lb title on the line against former champion Hugo Cazares in Puerto Rico. I think Calderon will be much more adjusted to the weight (for guys this small that extra kilo makes a difference) and I also think Cazares is struggling to make weight. Calderon should win the rematch more comfortably.
Also in action this weekend is the top Junior Bantamweight (115lbs) in the World Cristian Mijares. Mijares is one of the few titlists who is willing to fight other guys with titles and fight top fighters on a consistant basis. This is one of the reasons I think he deserves a spot in the top ten Pound for Pound best fighters in the World. Recently he’s beaten Jorge Arce, Katsushige Kawashima and Alexander Munoz and not only that, he fights every few months so he can stay sharp. Other champions could learn a lot from this guy! Mijares takes on former WBC flyweight titlist Chatchai Sasakul (64-3).

Big two weeks of Lightweights starts next weekend
All of the top lightweight contenders (bar Manny Pacquiao) will do battle over a period of eight days starting next weekend when Juan Diaz and Michael Katsidis fight to try and get back in the title picture. This is then followed by a fight for the Linear Lightweight title between Champion Joel Casamayor and two weight titlist and top pound for pound fighter Juan Manuel Marquez. Also on the same day, multi alphabet belt holder Nate Campbell gives Joan Guzman a chance to win his third world title. Two of the junior welterweight titles go up for grabs on the same day with Timothy Bradley and Andreas Kotelnik defending their respective belts. Despite the few weeks without a big fight, September 13 is doing its best to make up for lost time!